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Post by texasdad on Jun 26, 2018 7:27:34 GMT -8
I’m not really a SEC fanboy – just an objective baseball fan with a kid that played college ball. Last year I went to every Arkansas game (home and away). This year a good friend’s kid played for Texas and I went to nearly every home game. Being objective, the level of play I saw last year in the SEC was far better than what I saw this year in Austin (yes that includes Stanford – but they hadn’t hit stride yet). For comparison the Big12 had 5.1 players per game drafted (via excel). I’d be thrilled if the Pac12 was the 800-pound gorilla – we need more support for baseball in general, but if you’re being objective the SEC is leading the charge in college baseball. That has no reflection on the greatness of individual teams (i.e. Coastal Carolina) but you’re burying your head in the sand if you think talent pools and competition levels are equal across conferences. Yet ( this is off top of my head so correct me where wrong). Of the last 15 national titles four are PAC and five SEC. Great coaches create great programs and Pat Casey is an extraordinary coach. I also have no intent of diminishing the storied baseball past of the Pac12. However, I don’t think the number past championships has anything to do with the current direction of college baseball. Man, you guys are sensitive... lol!
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Post by jdogge on Jun 26, 2018 8:07:05 GMT -8
Kind of a meaningless stat. It is only important if you consider which round they were taken. For example, 7.1 average could mean they were all taken in rounds 32-40. Based on my assessment, in the first two rounds: PAC-12 6, SEC 10. Fairly well balanced. But, OSU had three first rounders. Arkansas had zero first rounders.
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Post by gohogs14 on Jun 26, 2018 9:19:10 GMT -8
Kind of a meaningless stat. It is only important if you consider which round they were taken. For example, 7.1 average could mean they were all taken in rounds 32-40. Based on my assessment, in the first two rounds: PAC-12 6, SEC 10. Fairly well balanced. But, OSU had three first rounders. Arkansas had zero first rounders. Pretty sure Arkansas tied for 2nd in the nation with 11 players drafted total. No first rounders, but a lot of round 3-20 type guys.
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Post by jdogge on Jun 26, 2018 9:35:52 GMT -8
Kind of a meaningless stat. It is only important if you consider which round they were taken. For example, 7.1 average could mean they were all taken in rounds 32-40. Based on my assessment, in the first two rounds: PAC-12 6, SEC 10. Fairly well balanced. But, OSU had three first rounders. Arkansas had zero first rounders. Pretty sure Arkansas tied for 2nd in the nation with 11 players drafted total. No first rounders, but a lot of round 3-20 type guys. Well, that's nice. But Arizona State had eight drafted. Did you see them in the Regionals, Supers, or the CWS? OSU had only ten draft-eligible players. Three were in the first (Madrigal, Larnach, and Grenier), one in the fifth (Kwan), one in the sixth (Rasmussen), and one in the tenth (Gretler). Heimlich is a first round talent who was not drafted because he got bad legal advice. So, we can play this game all you like. But beyond the first round, the chance that any of these kids will hit the Bigs and stick are very low the deeper you get into the draft.
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Post by texasdad on Jun 26, 2018 9:40:00 GMT -8
This thread was about the stat comparison between OSU and Arkansas. My initial point was a direct comparison is not completely valid due to the level of talent relative to the respective conferences. The SEC having 37% more players per team heading to pro ball than the PAC 12. The difference narrows when you look at the first 10 rounds, with the SEC having 16% more than the PAC12. Make no mistake, it’s most of these young men’s goal is to be drafted.
The opportunity to be drafted is one of the reasons the SEC recruits so well (facilities and large crowds help too). That being said, having 3 first rounders is incredible (half of the conference total) and I’m sure will be a positive factor in the already terrific job OSU does in its recruiting (not that PC needs the help).
So yes, I know that OSU has three 1st rounders (should be 4 if circumstances were different) and Arkansas has none. Florida had three 1st rounders too – I’m not sure it’s relevant at the individual game level at this point in the season.
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Post by ostate on Jun 26, 2018 9:48:53 GMT -8
The numbers seem to point one way.
Don't forget this one . . . Strength of Schedule
Hogs #2 (#1 after tonight) OSU #29
Also note that OSU's SOS was probably around#40 before the NCAA Tournament began, which pumped it up. On the other hand, Arkansas' SOS has bounced between #1 and #3 the last month of the regular season, up to this point.
Point being, you've got to take into account the level of competition when comparing stats for teams. That levels these numbers out quite a bit.
Not trash talking - just making a point.
Really should compare non-conference SOS:Beavers: 24-1, RPI #1, SOS #15 Ark: 19-5, RPI #13, SOS #28 Beavers played a stronger non-conference schedule and won more non-conference games... The overall SOS of Ark is high due to the inflated SEC rankings, not 'level of competition'...
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 26, 2018 9:51:28 GMT -8
As I said conference has nothing to do with great teams – OSU’s record over the last 2 years may qualify them as one of the greatest. Which is good for Pac12 baseball, which is good for college baseball which is good for baseball in general. My point which wasn’t well conveyed, is that comparing team stats across conferences isn’t necessarily valid or indicative of outcome. As to my opinion to outcome… I think it’s a great matchup! I believe that Arkansas hitters have consistently seen better pitching than OSU hitters throughout the season and that may be a slight advantage. I actually think it will come down to an individual or two having a career moment, likely a pitcher. Should be fun to watch! Not sure about the better pitching comment; a lot of Pac-12 pitchers take the mound in the pros. You get to the playoffs and you are getting top pitching regardless, and OSU's average has gone up. Regardless of # of draft picks etc., OSU "hits" you with a 5th round, three 1st round, a future 1st round and a 10th round pick in the top 6 of their order, and no other team can say that. And the other three guys batting 7-9 haven't done so badly either. Our pitching shows up, and I like our chances.
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Post by beavs6 on Jun 26, 2018 10:03:14 GMT -8
This thread was about the stat comparison between OSU and Arkansas. My initial point was a direct comparison is not completely valid due to the level of talent relative to the respective conferences. The SEC having 37% more players per team heading to pro ball than the PAC 12. The difference narrows when you look at the first 10 rounds, with the SEC having 16% more than the PAC12. Make no mistake, it’s most of these young men’s goal is to be drafted. The opportunity to be drafted is one of the reasons the SEC recruits so well (facilities and large crowds help too). That being said, having 3 first rounders is incredible (half of the conference total) and I’m sure will be a positive factor in the already terrific job OSU does in its recruiting (not that PC needs the help). So yes, I know that OSU has three 1st rounders (should be 4 if circumstances were different) and Arkansas has none. Florida had three 1st rounders too – I’m not sure it’s relevant at the individual game level at this point in the season. Maybe OSU’s stats are inflated because they can’t play against the best team in the country.
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Post by Werebeaver on Jun 26, 2018 10:15:11 GMT -8
This thread was about the stat comparison between OSU and Arkansas. My initial point was a direct comparison is not completely valid due to the level of talent relative to the respective conferences. The SEC having 37% more players per team heading to pro ball than the PAC 12. The difference narrows when you look at the first 10 rounds, with the SEC having 16% more than the PAC12. Make no mistake, it’s most of these young men’s goal is to be drafted. The opportunity to be drafted is one of the reasons the SEC recruits so well (facilities and large crowds help too). That being said, having 3 first rounders is incredible (half of the conference total) and I’m sure will be a positive factor in the already terrific job OSU does in its recruiting (not that PC needs the help). So yes, I know that OSU has three 1st rounders (should be 4 if circumstances were different) and Arkansas has none. Florida had three 1st rounders too – I’m not sure it’s relevant at the individual game level at this point in the season. Maybe OSU’s stats are inflated because they can’t play against the best team in the country. OSU's season numbers are better than Arkansas' because we play weaker competition. Got it. Thanks for the clarification.
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Post by justdamwin on Jun 26, 2018 10:18:36 GMT -8
Maybe OSU’s stats are inflated because they can’t play against the best team in the country. OSU's season numbers are better than Arkansas' because we play weaker competition. Got it. Thanks for the clarification. Well they cant play themselves (best team in the nation)
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Post by beavs6 on Jun 26, 2018 10:21:16 GMT -8
Maybe OSU’s stats are inflated because they can’t play against the best team in the country. OSU's season numbers are better than Arkansas' because we play weaker competition. Got it. Thanks for the clarification. Really missed that one, didn’t you squonk. Look 1 reply up.(justdamwin gives you the answer)
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Post by BeaverG20 on Jun 26, 2018 10:31:21 GMT -8
I don't get all the SEC hate. They are a tremendous baseball conference. If any conference is overrated it's the ACC.
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Post by texasdad on Jun 26, 2018 10:32:08 GMT -8
“So, we can play this game all you like. But beyond the first round, the chance that any of these kids will hit the Bigs and stick are very low the deeper you get into the draft.”
Statistically getting to the MLB is something like: 1st round 66%, 2nd round 49%, 3-5 rounds 32% and 6-10 at 20%. But really it has more to do with signing bonus, if you get 2 round money in the 11th round you’re going to get the same opportunity as a 2nd rounder. ROI (return on investment) just like any other business – the larger the investment, the more you’ll work to prove you made a good choice.
Not sure what that has to do with the thread, but at least it’s accurate…
“The overall SOS of Ark is high due to the inflated SEC rankings, not 'level of competition'...”
This is just fake news, just saying something doesn’t make it true.
Looking forward to what will hopefully be a great game. Good luck to all and WPS!
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Post by alwaysorange on Jun 26, 2018 10:32:21 GMT -8
I hope little old Oregon State can somehow even show up today with that imposing SEC team. After all little old Oregon State from that weak PAC 12 only went 4-0 against the mighty SEC over the past few weeks outscoring the two teams 43-5. Looking at the mighty Arkansas apparently the cream of the SEC lost 3 of 4 to LSU and all three to Miss St. outscored 37-28 by those two teams.
I sure hope little old OSU isn't shaking in their cleats.
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Post by jimbeav on Jun 26, 2018 10:34:36 GMT -8
With all this talk of SEC vs Pac-12, I keep coming back to how we have completely man-handled the starting pitching in all 4 of the SEC games we've played (LSU and MSU), while they have done very little against ours. MSU finally shut us down for 8 innings, but we got to their ace starter bad, and it would have been worse if not for an ugly base-running blunder by 2 players at once.
Maybe there are other counter-examples in other Pac-12 vs SEC games that people can point to, but based on what I've seen in OSU games, my conclusion so far is that Pac-12 top-notch pitching > SEC top-notch pitching.
Arkansas is clearly the cream of the crop, and I am fully expecting a close, hard-fought game, but there's a little nagging thought in the back of my mind that wonders if we might also hammer Knight hard. We have just handled our other SEC opponents so easily recently...
We'll all see soon, of course...
GO BEAVS!
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