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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2018 7:10:16 GMT -8
just possibly, just maybe....
getting blackballed ( yes BLACKBALLED) by MLB will tilt the court of public opinion just enough in Luke's favor for the second chapter of this saga to be written.
Let's say Luke finds some focus here in all this and puts together a nice piece of pitching here in the SR.
Yes there will be the usual ESPN graphic that everyone has already seen at least 25 times but also the new information that MLB has snubbed him, essentially giving him a lifetime ban and stopping his career before it ever started. But the focus of the story is now the double jeopardy, not just the infamy but also the penalty of opportunity that his talent and hard work has earned him. Wasted talent is now the actual story. And that story gets bigger with every strike he throws.
Americans at their core think they are fair. Even the judgy ones. This story hasn't been completely written yet.
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billsaab
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Retired. Live in SW Washington on 73/4 Acres.
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Post by billsaab on Jun 7, 2018 7:18:12 GMT -8
Read the latest article. Read Canzanno's article as well.I personally would forgive Luke and move on. I harbor no ill will toward anyone. All of this is unfortunate. Having two Daughters both with Kids now really makes Me stop and think. I feel sad for all of this. For the sake of the Team we should move on. I hope they don't read all the loud posts. We do not know what really transpired. Sadly Luke has to deal with it and I wish him the best. I will always wonder how this was handled.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 7, 2018 7:36:49 GMT -8
just possibly, just maybe.... getting blackballed ( yes BLACKBALLED) by MLB will tilt the court of public opinion just enough in Luke's favor for the second chapter of this saga to be written. Let's say Luke finds some focus here in all this and puts together a nice piece of pitching here in the SR. Yes there will be the usual ESPN graphic that everyone has already seen at least 25 times but also the new information that MLB has snubbed him, essentially giving him a lifetime ban and stopping his career before it ever started. But the focus of the story is now the double jeopardy, not just the infamy but also the penalty of opportunity that his talent and hard work has earned him. Wasted talent is now the actual story. And that story gets bigger with every strike he throws. Americans at their core think they are fair. Even the judgy ones. This story hasn't been completely written yet. People are entrenched in their opinions. Personally for me, I just see SO MUCH reasonable doubt, I cannot fathom why people like Canzano (well he is a hack of a human, a spineless pandering worm) can willfully ignore a mountain of other questionable information, to zero in on just the singular facts of "plead guilty". And of course, when they are climbing up in their ivory tower to kick Luke in the dick again.. .they never even come close to bringing up anything that makes this case, in any way, possibly in questions. Canzano and some others WANT Luke to be guilty in reality, so they can get their vicarious justice boner on. you either take a step back and think: there could be a valid reason why an innocent person pleads guilty or you think: he plead guilty, he is 100% guilty. That is the way it works. It is particularly damning right now that (supposedly) a family friend has come out and shown in public records that the Mother lied in the SI article, and she 100% did make the accusation of molestation in the middle of the custody battle and it WAS an argument for custody. |
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Post by nabeav on Jun 7, 2018 8:25:42 GMT -8
I don't understand why, if all of us can see all this reasonable doubt, Luke and his lawyers and family thought pleading guilty was the way to go.
I don't understand why, if a reporter does a records search and finds a conviction for failure to report as a sex offender, calls Heimlich and his family for comment and they don't want to talk, he's all of a sudden the villain for writing a story about what he found.
The BCSO or CPD or whomever it was that botched the reporting to OSU and then subsequently issued a citation that never should've been issued is the real problem here. I would think Luke has an excellent case for a lawsuit against them for lost wages that could be settled out of court for enough money that Luke won't have to work a day in his life if he doesn't want to.
Again, I don't see any reason why Luke shouldn't be able to play baseball at OSU. I don't see any reason why a professional baseball team HAS to sign him if they don't want to. Anyone who thinks Luke should be playing should also be shouting from the rooftops about Kaepernick not being in the NFL.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2018 8:34:11 GMT -8
I don't understand why, if all of us can see all this reasonable doubt, Luke and his lawyers and family thought pleading guilty was the way to go. I don't understand why, if a reporter does a records search and finds a conviction for failure to report as a sex offender, calls Heimlich and his family for comment and they don't want to talk, he's all of a sudden the villain for writing a story about what he found. The BCSO or CPD or whomever it was that botched the reporting to OSU and then subsequently issued a citation that never should've been issued is the real problem here. I would think Luke has an excellent case for a lawsuit against them for lost wages that could be settled out of court for enough money that Luke won't have to work a day in his life if he doesn't want to. Again, I don't see any reason why Luke shouldn't be able to play baseball at OSU. I don't see any reason why a professional baseball team HAS to sign him if they don't want to. Anyone who thinks Luke should be playing should also be shouting from the rooftops about Kaepernick not being in the NFL. I don't think "want" is in play here for most of the teams. They want to win and they are not too stupid to know the vast majority of their fans want to win. I'm absolutely sure there are at least a few ballclubs willing to rankle the 2% of their "fans" if it means bolstering their bullpen enough to get to the playoffs. But that ain't happening, probably by power of the commish and/or other owners. Big Dumb Media has fastened on to this because it's an easy one. The MLB as a unit is trying to avoid the black eye of guilt by association, however far removed that association is and however hypocritical and cowardly that makes MLB appear. |
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Post by nabeav on Jun 7, 2018 8:39:50 GMT -8
If your conspiracy theory (good use of the word cabal, by the way) is true, that's a different animal. Taking things at face value without evidence of anything else though.......no team felt it was a good business decision to draft him. The Yahoo! article made it sound like at least a few teams did their due diligence to see what bringing him on might entail and what steps they'd have to take to deal with the blowback, and they still felt it was in their best interests not to draft him. For a guy that we all agree has the talent to make those organizations millions upon millions if he were to pitch to the level he has in college, I have to believe that MLB teams would spend all the money and time they needed to get the most accurate information available. It's not like some GM read the Danny Moran story, did no other research whatsoever and said "I don't like it, move on!"
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2018 8:47:25 GMT -8
If your conspiracy theory (good use of the word cabal, by the way) is true, that's a different animal. Taking things at face value without evidence of anything else though.......no team felt it was a good business decision to draft him. The Yahoo! article made it sound like at least a few teams did their due diligence to see what bringing him on might entail and what steps they'd have to take to deal with the blowback, and they still felt it was in their best interests not to draft him. For a guy that we all agree has the talent to make those organizations millions upon millions if he were to pitch to the level he has in college, I have to believe that MLB teams would spend all the money and time they needed to get the most accurate information available. It's not like some GM read the Danny Moran story, did no other research whatsoever and said "I don't like it, move on!" so you think they did their research and think the recidivism rate of .01% is still too high? |
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Post by nabeav on Jun 7, 2018 8:53:02 GMT -8
This is the problem: We know there's a low risk of him re-offending. By all accounts he has done nothing wrong since 2012. However, you can't simultaneously say "He has a low risk of re-offending" and also believe that he is telling the truth that nothing happened. This is the problem Luke has kind of created for himself. I would imagine that people that deny anything ever happened and accept no responsibility for their actions have a much higher rate of recidivism than those that express remorse and truly move on.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2018 9:08:55 GMT -8
This is the problem: We know there's a low risk of him re-offending. By all accounts he has done nothing wrong since 2012. However, you can't simultaneously say "He has a low risk of re-offending" and also believe that he is telling the truth that nothing happened. This is the problem Luke has kind of created for himself. I would imagine that people that deny anything ever happened and accept no responsibility for their actions have a much higher rate of recidivism than those that express remorse and truly move on. It's not that i think you are overthinking it. You make a couple of good points but i think they are totally outside the context of why Luke didn't get drafted. Maybe 1 or two teams might seriously be pondering the risk of re offending as criteria for drafting him. But all 30 teams? no way. my overactive imagination says there was some top down communication to the owners. Something like: This Heimlich kid, drafting him would be be bad for our product's image, Just say no. The brightside is if bad PR is the whole stopper here then Luke could get into the MLB via open tryout after a couple years, when all the short memories have fluttered away like butterflies. |
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Post by ochobeavo on Jun 7, 2018 9:18:28 GMT -8
I actually think it's pretty simple - no conspiracies, no collusion..
Like it or not, a team that drafts him or signs him as a FA has just pissed off 75% of it's fan base and is now the target of the negative press that comes with it. Outside of Beaver Nation, the number of people who are truly rooting for Luke to succeed is minuscule at best.
You can avoid that situation entirely by not drafting him. So I get it. I don't like it, but I get it.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 7, 2018 10:01:39 GMT -8
I don't understand why, if all of us can see all this reasonable doubt, Luke and his lawyers and family thought pleading guilty was the way to go. I don't understand why, if a reporter does a records search and finds a conviction for failure to report as a sex offender, calls Heimlich and his family for comment and they don't want to talk, he's all of a sudden the villain for writing a story about what he found. The BCSO or CPD or whomever it was that botched the reporting to OSU and then subsequently issued a citation that never should've been issued is the real problem here. I would think Luke has an excellent case for a lawsuit against them for lost wages that could be settled out of court for enough money that Luke won't have to work a day in his life if he doesn't want to. Again, I don't see any reason why Luke shouldn't be able to play baseball at OSU. I don't see any reason why a professional baseball team HAS to sign him if they don't want to. Anyone who thinks Luke should be playing should also be shouting from the rooftops about Kaepernick not being in the NFL. I don't think it is honestly that crazy of a suggestion. Remember this is JUVENILE court, it is not the same as adult court. The lawyer presented two scenarios: 1. plead guilty to a single count. Get probation and counselling. Your record is expunged when you turn 21. It never happened, it is unsearchable, you move on in life. You stay out of jail, you keep doing sports, the family puts this behind them. 2. you fight in court, a he-said, she-said case against your six year old niece. you are not allowed a jury trial. The lawyer in the area presumably knows the biases of the judge you will have. You risk going to jail for a year or more. Sports are over, family in turmoil... It honest to God is not that crazy. it is not. you cannot tell me pleading guilty here is an entirely irrational position. You look at a risk/reward perspective it isn't crazy. Don't let what happened by pure happen chance (OSP screwed up, citation issues wrongly) give you hindsight. If not for a screw up by that office, nobody ever knows, his birthday comes and goes last August and nobody could ever find any evidence of anything... period. I agree the paper is not to blame here (though their judgement can be questioned). I do find it highly suspicious they ran a background check on LH when they did... It was his 3rd season at OSU. they had interviewed him before the this all broke, before the interview in question. why background check now? I believe the rumors that the Oregonian was tipped off by the mother. It is entirely plausible to me. Couple that with the fact that at the exact same time they published the story about Luke they published the "why we ran a background check" literally posted them simultaneously. Not after question. not a day later, or hours later. at the exact same time. They new it looked fishy to find all of this right when they did. They were trying to get out ahead of it. Lets not forget past reporters took to twitter and said they were NEVER required to run background checks on interview subjects. I mean, why doesn't the little O just run routine background checks on the entire rosters of all sports teams? seems like that would be most efficient for them! and now Danny works for a second rate non-profit... I agree that OSP should be held accountable... but they won't be. not now not ever. At the end of the day, it will be the same response "Don't molest little kids if you want to be a MLB star..." I agree that no MLB team should be required to sign Luke. He is a PR nightmare, there is no denying that. My only position is there is enough doubt that it is s%#tty situation, and Luke shouldn't be branded Child Molester for his entire life. I accept it is possible Luke really did molest his niece. that is a real world possibility. I just think a sudden accusation of molestation while the kid is visiting the Mom over Christmas, in the middle of a contentious custody battle is a tad bit suspicious too. |
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Post by bucktoothvarmit on Jun 7, 2018 10:12:39 GMT -8
People are entrenched in their opinions. Personally for me, I just see SO MUCH reasonable doubt, I cannot fathom why people like Canzano (well he is a hack of a human, a spineless pandering worm) can willfully ignore a mountain of other questionable information, to zero in on just the singular facts of "plead guilty". And of course, when they are climbing up in their ivory tower to kick Luke in the dick again.. .they never even come close to bringing up anything that makes this case, in any way, possibly in questions. Canzano and some others WANT Luke to be guilty in reality, so they can get their vicarious justice boner on. you either take a step back and think: there could be a valid reason why an innocent person pleads guilty or you think: he plead guilty, he is 100% guilty. That is the way it works. It is particularly damning right now that (supposedly) a family friend has come out and shown in public records that the Mother lied in the SI article, and she 100% did make the accusation of molestation in the middle of the custody battle and it WAS an argument for custody. Quit giving "spineless pandering worms" such a bad rap!! 
Go Beavs!!
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Post by nabeav on Jun 7, 2018 11:03:00 GMT -8
atownbeaver - I think you're right - those are probably the two scenarios that were presented. It's entirely plausible. I'm just saying that with all this purported circumstantial evidence to the contrary of him being actually guilty, I also think it's possible that a judge would've thrown the thing out. If the only thing going is the word of a six year old girl....that seems a flimsy thing to hang a case on. Numerous times, people have said that "only two people know what really happened" and yet we all keep shouting down people who have different beliefs on what really happened as crazy and vindictive or only believing he's innocent because of the color of his jersey or whatever. It really is an awful situation all the way around.
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Post by jimbeav on Jun 7, 2018 11:09:49 GMT -8
Now that the dust has settled from the draft, it looks to me in hindsight that it wasn't a good idea to publicly proclaim his innocence. I'm seeing a lot of comments in articles (including Clownzano, but he's not the first), that him saying he didn't do it has muddied the waters in terms of public perception. People tend to be forgiving of those who admit to fault and accept the consequences, but what he has done has brought the he-said/she-said game into the public sphere, and it's become clear to me over the last few days that it hasn't gone well for him.
It would probably have been better if he instead had stepped forward and said, "When I was 13 and being home-schooled in 8th grade, I had no fricking clue about life or the human body and did some inappropriate touching over a period of time to my wonderful little niece that I later came to realize were abhorrent and disgusting, and I will forever be ashamed by my actions."
But I believe that is not Luke's truth (I have wondered if he himself might have inadvertently mentally blocked out his actions, if he did indeed do them), and at the very least it's in contrast to what he has privately asserted to counselors and family for the past 6 years.
His problem from a PR standpoint is that he danced around and tried to delicately address the motivation for why he was accused. When asked by the SI reporter, he simply says he doesn't want to speculate. Bad idea. If you're going to go this route, you've got to go all the way and say very concisely that he and his family are the victims of a vindictive ex-wife during a child custody battle, and that this is nothing more than a messy, horrible internal family matter that has spilled on to the front pages of the newspapers through no fault of Luke's. That is something that fits in a headline just as easily as "Child molester might get drafted", and could be shown on an ESPN graphic during the game. It just doesn't work to have a graphic or a crawl text that says "Convicted child molester awaiting draft status but he says he didn't do it." There is just no way to win the PR battle with the way he has addressed this.
Clownzano is saying today that Luke threw the little girl under the bus, but what he really needed to do was throw her mom under the bus, and he should have emphasized her role more in the whole sordid affair. The public wants their bad guy and a pound of flesh no matter what, and right now Luke is the only target. But Luke's problem is that he is too nice to do that and drag his brother and niece through the ringer again.
This whole things just sucks so, so, so, so much. Everybody is a loser. There are no winners. There should be a federal law that juvenile records should be closed from public viewing from day one. I believe in many other states, Moran wouldn't have been able to obtain the court records like he could from Washington. That should be the default behavior for any minors accused of a crime. Our culture is too quick to string up anybody that a headline tells us to, and children should not pay the price for that.
GO BEAVS!
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Post by jimbeav on Jun 7, 2018 11:15:35 GMT -8
I should also add, my comment above is about the PR battle, and as far as MLB is concerned, that is the ONLY thing that matters. I guarantee you that the GMs don't give one rat's ass about whether Luke is actually guilty or not. They ONLY care about whether others believe that he's guilty.
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