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Post by thewizard on Jun 7, 2017 8:36:32 GMT -8
You must be forgetting that KJ hit a whopping .239 and .236 in conference play his first two years at OSU. This year he hit .333. KJ is a much improved hitter and is far from unpredictable as you claimed. When it comes to KJ, I've had to catch myself a couple of times with my own inflated expectations. Somewhere along the way, I deemed him as "our next Conforto", and that's an incredibly ridiculous, high bar that I set in my own mind. I do think he's a much more complete hitter now - still gets a little big with his swing, but he's not trying to hit everything 450 feet these days. Well, in 2014, Conforto only had two hits in 5 games in the Corvallis Regional. KJ just had 6 hits in 3 games in the Corvallis Regional. I think KJ is just fine. I am not sure why everyone is saying you are not sure what you get with KJ? |
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Post by ochobeavo on Jun 7, 2017 8:47:13 GMT -8
When it comes to KJ, I've had to catch myself a couple of times with my own inflated expectations. Somewhere along the way, I deemed him as "our next Conforto", and that's an incredibly ridiculous, high bar that I set in my own mind. I do think he's a much more complete hitter now - still gets a little big with his swing, but he's not trying to hit everything 450 feet these days. Well, in 2014, Conforto only had two hits in 5 games in the Corvallis Regional. KJ just had 6 hits in 3 games in the Corvallis Regional. I think KJ is just fine. I am not sure why everyone is saying you are not sure what you get with KJ? He's had a bunch of hits this year where he just took something on the outer half and drilled it right back up the middle, a year ago he tries to pull it down the line and out of the yard and misses the ball by about 6 inches* *Not scientific fact. I have no way of measuring this. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Jun 7, 2017 10:01:43 GMT -8
Just a couple of thoughts. Nick obviously is not the Nick of Mid Season. KJ is totally unpredictable. His first year he just walked up the Plate and Hit the Ball. Now? Gretler has become a good hitter. Larnach maybe the best hitter we have right now. Gren-yer is a mystery, but really tough. Anderson is going to try to hit the Ball even if he has to use a Tennis Racket. Cary likely just needs playing time. That guy is a serious Centerfielder! The hard thing to stomach is anyone Striking Out with Runners on! We hit this weekend, we win! You must be forgetting that KJ hit a whopping .239 and .236 in conference play his first two years at OSU. This year he hit .333. KJ is a much improved hitter and is far from unpredictable as you claimed. Improved yes... but "soft, soft soft" will make him look consistent... consistently bad. He has a huge hole in his swing and looks very stiff after the ankle injury. KJ is one of the "mid-level" prospects that could really use another year at OSU to follow up on this year's improvement and become a more complete hitter. Minor league breaking balls will make his pro career very very frustrating and slow moving if he goes this year. And he could use some work at 1B... footwork, flexibility, glove work. Not saying he can't have a decent minor league career, but he would truly benefit from another year here. |
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 7, 2017 10:08:21 GMT -8
You must be forgetting that KJ hit a whopping .239 and .236 in conference play his first two years at OSU. This year he hit .333. KJ is a much improved hitter and is far from unpredictable as you claimed. Improved yes... but "soft, soft soft" will make him look consistent... consistently bad. He has a huge hole in his swing and looks very stiff after the ankle injury. KJ is one of the "mid-level" prospects that could really use another year at OSU to follow up on this year's improvement and become a more complete hitter. Minor league breaking balls will make his pro career very very frustrating and slow moving if he goes this year. And he could use some work at 1B... footwork, flexibility, glove work. Not saying he can't have a decent minor league career, but he would truly benefit from another year here. I am not seeing the hole in the swing, just the hole in the discipline that leads him to pop up a lot, But he has been hitting the ball to all fields, missed about 4 home runs by inches this year, and his batting average is way up, and strikeouts are way down. Got a bit of a gimpy ankle after that roll over on the slide into 2nd, but he makes some great plays at first digging the ball out that we've seen other team's 1st baggers miss. Compared with his hitting the first two years, he is miles ahead and improving. If he comes back, it will all depend on where he is drafted, and he is thought of quite highly - hard to turn down 3rd round money. |
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Post by kersting13 on Jun 7, 2017 10:33:33 GMT -8
You must be forgetting that KJ hit a whopping .239 and .236 in conference play his first two years at OSU. This year he hit .333. KJ is a much improved hitter and is far from unpredictable as you claimed. Improved yes... but "soft, soft soft" will make him look consistent... consistently bad. He has a huge hole in his swing and looks very stiff after the ankle injury. KJ is one of the "mid-level" prospects that could really use another year at OSU to follow up on this year's improvement and become a more complete hitter. Minor league breaking balls will make his pro career very very frustrating and slow moving if he goes this year. And he could use some work at 1B... footwork, flexibility, glove work. Not saying he can't have a decent minor league career, but he would truly benefit from another year here. KJ would not benefit AT ALL from spending another year at OSU. He'll get drafted this year at a spot that will earn him at least a couple hundred thousand dollar bonus, and he'll be playing ball with a lot of other guys who will have a hitting coach trying to help them adjust to breaking balls. It's not like he'll be going straight to MLB. He'll be going to a minor league team where it's literally their job to help their players whom they've invested large sums of money in to get better. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Jun 7, 2017 10:57:43 GMT -8
Improved yes... but "soft, soft soft" will make him look consistent... consistently bad. He has a huge hole in his swing and looks very stiff after the ankle injury. KJ is one of the "mid-level" prospects that could really use another year at OSU to follow up on this year's improvement and become a more complete hitter. Minor league breaking balls will make his pro career very very frustrating and slow moving if he goes this year. And he could use some work at 1B... footwork, flexibility, glove work. Not saying he can't have a decent minor league career, but he would truly benefit from another year here. KJ would not benefit AT ALL from spending another year at OSU. He'll get drafted this year at a spot that will earn him at least a couple hundred thousand dollar bonus, and he'll be playing ball with a lot of other guys who will have a hitting coach trying to help them adjust to breaking balls. It's not like he'll be going straight to MLB. He'll be going to a minor league team where it's literally their job to help their players whom they've invested large sums of money in to get better. You lose any argument here as soon as you said "AT ALL"... besides baseball (and at a career .270 or so, he's not an elite college hitter let alone pro... he's seen as "potential" right now with an upside) every college student benefits from a degree... or two. Pretty easy fact to find... most who leave without one don't return to get one. MLB teams save a s%#te ton of $$ negotiating paying for school and lower signing $. Rarely gets used... and typically has a timeframe attached. If you think $200k and minor league salary goes far in your early 20s your sadly mistaken. Broke and undegreed former baseball players are a dime a dozen. |
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Post by badwack on Jun 7, 2017 11:44:14 GMT -8
Odds 95% KJ follows the money. Sometimes I wonder if a Trip to the CWS might be a huge lure for some of these Guys to return for another shot. Rass completing the Re-hab of his Arm makes some sense. Gretler? Cary?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 7, 2017 11:47:20 GMT -8
KJ would not benefit AT ALL from spending another year at OSU. He'll get drafted this year at a spot that will earn him at least a couple hundred thousand dollar bonus, and he'll be playing ball with a lot of other guys who will have a hitting coach trying to help them adjust to breaking balls. It's not like he'll be going straight to MLB. He'll be going to a minor league team where it's literally their job to help their players whom they've invested large sums of money in to get better. You lose any argument here as soon as you said "AT ALL"... besides baseball (and at a career .270 or so, he's not an elite college hitter let alone pro... he's seen as "potential" right now with an upside) every college student benefits from a degree... or two. Pretty easy fact to find... most who leave without one don't return to get one. MLB teams save a s%#te ton of $$ negotiating paying for school and lower signing $. Rarely gets used... and typically has a timeframe attached. If you think $200k and minor league salary goes far in your early 20s your sadly mistaken. Broke and undegreed former baseball players are a dime a dozen. On the flip side, I had a friend who was drafted out of junior college and instead opted to go to college. He rode pine for most of his junior year and started his senior year but was not drafted. He played one year of sub-A minor league ball before hanging up his cleats. School will always be there. Several of Oregon State's players that left after their junior year returned to school after their minor league careers were over and graduated. But you may only have one shot at making a name for yourself in professional baseball. |
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Post by kersting13 on Jun 7, 2017 13:55:18 GMT -8
KJ would not benefit AT ALL from spending another year at OSU. He'll get drafted this year at a spot that will earn him at least a couple hundred thousand dollar bonus, and he'll be playing ball with a lot of other guys who will have a hitting coach trying to help them adjust to breaking balls. It's not like he'll be going straight to MLB. He'll be going to a minor league team where it's literally their job to help their players whom they've invested large sums of money in to get better. You lose any argument here as soon as you said "AT ALL"... besides baseball (and at a career .270 or so, he's not an elite college hitter let alone pro... he's seen as "potential" right now with an upside) every college student benefits from a degree... or two. Pretty easy fact to find... most who leave without one don't return to get one. MLB teams save a s%#te ton of $$ negotiating paying for school and lower signing $. Rarely gets used... and typically has a timeframe attached. If you think $200k and minor league salary goes far in your early 20s your sadly mistaken. Broke and undegreed former baseball players are a dime a dozen. Still can NEVER admit when you're totally wrong. According to Baseball America, KJ is the #56 draft prospect in 2017, which holds a bonus allocation of $1,178,600. He'd have to fall all the way to the 7th round to get below $200,000. You can't seriously be suggesting that KJ would get significantly better coaching at OSU than he would in the Minor Leagues, do you? You can't seriously believe that he'd be better off staying at OSU for another year and piss away hundreds of thousands of dollars of bonus money, do you? No, you simply talked out of your a$$, someone called you on it, and now you'll argue to the end that your original BS was right, even when everyone who can process logic knows YOU'RE WRONG. Come on, Baseba1111. For once in your life, admit you're wrong. It won't hurt. I promise. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Jun 7, 2017 14:12:16 GMT -8
You lose any argument here as soon as you said "AT ALL"... besides baseball (and at a career .270 or so, he's not an elite college hitter let alone pro... he's seen as "potential" right now with an upside) every college student benefits from a degree... or two. Pretty easy fact to find... most who leave without one don't return to get one. MLB teams save a s%#te ton of $$ negotiating paying for school and lower signing $. Rarely gets used... and typically has a timeframe attached. If you think $200k and minor league salary goes far in your early 20s your sadly mistaken. Broke and undegreed former baseball players are a dime a dozen. Still can NEVER admit when you're totally wrong. According to Baseball America, KJ is the #56 draft prospect in 2017, which holds a bonus allocation of $1,178,600. He'd have to fall all the way to the 7th round to get below $200,000. You can't seriously be suggesting that KJ would get significantly better coaching at OSU than he would in the Minor Leagues, do you? You can't seriously believe that he'd be better off staying at OSU for another year and piss away hundreds of thousands of dollars of bonus money, do you? No, you simply talked out of your a$$, someone called you on it, and now you'll argue to the end that your original BS was right, even when everyone who can process logic knows YOU'RE WRONG. Come on, Baseba1111. For once in your life, admit you're wrong. It won't hurt. I promise. How can my opinion and those of scouts be wrong. It's an opinion. I will wager (however I don't gamble... except how much scotch I drink) that KJ gets far closer to 200k than that 1m figure? Best is 56... he was 98 on the same list 2 months prior... composite lists I've seen also KJ hovers around #75 to #100. Needs of teams dictate draft position. It will depend on who falls in "love" and who doesn't. And "slot" money is a shell game. They can do all sorts of moves to save to pay more for lower slots. And depending on which team and what their alloted bonus $ are. There are 6 teams with an 8 figures spending pool. Point being, the $ isn't the answer for every kid. There are many who turn it down to go to school... some on our roster. My point wasn't "right or wrong", you can play that dumb game. My OPINION and some others in the know is that KJ has a ways to go as a hitter and fielder... seen by most as a catcher in fact. In fact if lets say Oakland stays interested he could be the 1st Beav taken @ 43 and they have over $11mil to spend this draft... but they want him as a catcher. Then take the $ (although it won't be full slot amt, it'll be worth leaving) as he's never going higher. And there are at least 5 1B rated higher and at that position. He'd be into the 100's there. But, again you never know. But, I'd rather KJ go into pro ball a more complete player to help asure his success and hey more $if he indeed is in the 5-600k range this year. |
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Post by beavs6 on Jun 7, 2017 14:27:55 GMT -8
"I will wager that KJ gets far closer to 200k than that 1m figure?"
I'll take that action. Pick your wager. Far closer would put the over/under signing bonus # around $550k. ("closer" would use $600k).
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 7, 2017 15:10:16 GMT -8
KJ would not benefit AT ALL from spending another year at OSU. He'll get drafted this year at a spot that will earn him at least a couple hundred thousand dollar bonus, and he'll be playing ball with a lot of other guys who will have a hitting coach trying to help them adjust to breaking balls. It's not like he'll be going straight to MLB. He'll be going to a minor league team where it's literally their job to help their players whom they've invested large sums of money in to get better. You lose any argument here as soon as you said "AT ALL"... besides baseball (and at a career .270 or so, he's not an elite college hitter let alone pro... he's seen as "potential" right now with an upside) every college student benefits from a degree... or two. Pretty easy fact to find... most who leave without one don't return to get one. MLB teams save a s%#te ton of $$ negotiating paying for school and lower signing $. Rarely gets used... and typically has a timeframe attached. If you think $200k and minor league salary goes far in your early 20s your sadly mistaken. Broke and undegreed former baseball players are a dime a dozen. Sorry, gotta agree with the "won't benefit" angle. KJ is a draft eligible Jr. It is the only time, other than as a HS prospect, he will hold leverage in the draft game, and can angle for a good bonus. Your value as a MLB prospect is at its absolute peak as a junior. Unless KJ goes absolutely absurdly nuts and massively steps up his hitting to crazy levels of good, there is nothing to be gained in draft position, because he has lost Jr. leverage. History shows Jr. that return as seniors rarely improve or move significantly. many times they even fall (cough, Weltzer...) Splitting the difference between $200K and $1M bonus is about $500K. KJ will likely pocket about half that after taxes and agent fees and whatnot. $250K is about 5-8 years pay for your average bachelor degree holding recent grad in Oregon. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush man. Five years pay and a shot at the big time? Sorry, I think KJ would be making a poor choice to return. as a fan, I mean sure, I'd love it if he came back! |
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Post by baseba1111 on Jun 7, 2017 16:20:08 GMT -8
You lose any argument here as soon as you said "AT ALL"... besides baseball (and at a career .270 or so, he's not an elite college hitter let alone pro... he's seen as "potential" right now with an upside) every college student benefits from a degree... or two. Pretty easy fact to find... most who leave without one don't return to get one. MLB teams save a s%#te ton of $$ negotiating paying for school and lower signing $. Rarely gets used... and typically has a timeframe attached. If you think $200k and minor league salary goes far in your early 20s your sadly mistaken. Broke and undegreed former baseball players are a dime a dozen. Sorry, gotta agree with the "won't benefit" angle. KJ is a draft eligible Jr. It is the only time, other than as a HS prospect, he will hold leverage in the draft game, and can angle for a good bonus. Your value as a MLB prospect is at its absolute peak as a junior. Unless KJ goes absolutely absurdly nuts and massively steps up his hitting to crazy levels of good, there is nothing to be gained in draft position, because he has lost Jr. leverage. History shows Jr. that return as seniors rarely improve or move significantly. many times they even fall (cough, Weltzer...) Splitting the difference between $200K and $1M bonus is about $500K. KJ will likely pocket about half that after taxes and agent fees and whatnot. $250K is about 5-8 years pay for your average bachelor degree holding recent grad in Oregon. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush man. Five years pay and a shot at the big time? Sorry, I think KJ would be making a poor choice to return. as a fan, I mean sure, I'd love it if he came back! Agree to much of what you say. I'd be more adamant that staying is the best choice of he was going to catch for us. But not going to happen. Just talking to one of my scout buds who agrees with your/others side because it is a bad year for catchers. He'll be drafted much higher for that fact alone. But he does agree he's a project both at the plate and of course behind the dish and will not get near his allotted slot $. He sees him at the $1.1-1.5m slots getting 60-75%. Can't turn that down. |
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Post by ricke71 on Jun 7, 2017 17:05:24 GMT -8
Good discussion. Rather than copy hugely long past paragraphs, I'll just state upfront that my comment focuses on the part about money not being the deal for every young man "several of whom we have on our roster". Our middle infield is ONE of the best in OSU BB history. Both guys coulda gone with the $$ out of HS (particularly Grenier). We're blessed as a fan base that they didn't. And who knows, their decision may pan out as the best of both worlds in about 53 weeks. In the meantime, they each get two more shots at Omaha. As I've pointed out before: if Darwin Barney's relay to Canham was in front of 1800 fans in some AA ball park, it would be long forgotten...as it is, the play lives forever.
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Post by kersting13 on Jun 7, 2017 19:37:25 GMT -8
Good discussion. Rather than copy hugely long past paragraphs, I'll just state upfront that my comment focuses on the part about money not being the deal for every young man "several of whom we have on our roster". Our middle infield is ONE of the best in OSU BB history. Both guys coulda gone with the $$ out of HS (particularly Grenier). We're blessed as a fan base that they didn't. And who knows, their decision may pan out as the best of both worlds in about 53 weeks. In the meantime, they each get two more shots at Omaha. As I've pointed out before: if Darwin Barney's relay to Canham was in front of 1800 fans in some AA ball park, it would be long forgotten...as it is, the play lives forever. HUGE difference between skipping pro ball after HS vs skipping pro ball after your Junior year of college. HS draftees going to college still have a very decent shot at getting signed for big bucks. If you're drafted as a college senior, you'll be lucky to get $50K. Many get closer to $5 or $10K. The gist of my argument is less about money than whether KJ would "benefit" as a player from another year of college. He's going to get very good coaching and a whole lot of patience from whatever organization drafts him, and he'll be facing consistently stiffer competition than he would be if he stays at OSU. He would not benefit either financially OR in his skills by staying at OSU for 2018 vs going pro. We can say stuff like "he'd benefit from staying in college for another year" about football players, because the NFL has no minor league system that plays at a higher skill level than the NCAA. It's completely absurd to say Harrison would get better as a college player in 2018 than he would as a minor leaguer. |
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