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Post by blueheron on May 17, 2017 11:09:29 GMT -8
We all know that Casey typically changes up the rotation in the post-season. This year he needs to transition Thompson to start after Heimlich. In a short series it's a huge advantage to win the first two games, and in the super regionals and CWS winning the first two games means winning the series or National Championship.
By the regionals I predict our rotation will be Heimlich, Thompson, and Rasmussen in that order.
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Post by mbabeav on May 17, 2017 11:23:07 GMT -8
Not sure we need to change anything on the order, if Drew is there to take a start deep. Moving Jake would be, well it would be like stepping on the baseline as you are walking back to the dugout, not that I am superstitious or anything like that.
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Post by baseba1111 on May 17, 2017 11:30:25 GMT -8
You do not need to change anything until you have to win game #2 because you lost game 1.
Drew will continue to build innings and "feel", while using the entire staff... keeping JT where he is for now. The last series is a 4 gamer so it would be a good chance to play with staff and innings.
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Post by jrbeavo on May 17, 2017 11:54:54 GMT -8
I am of the mindset that you start Rass or whomever for game one, then have Heimlich and Thompson lined up for the winners bracket. As I have said, game 2 is always the most important in a regional, and we should (as a seeded team) be able to handle the 4th seeded regional team.
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Post by rilesinnewberg on May 17, 2017 12:08:59 GMT -8
I am of the mindset that you start Rass or whomever for game one, then have Heimlich and Thompson lined up for the winners bracket. As I have said, game 2 is always the most important in a regional, and we should (as a seeded team) be able to handle the 4th seeded regional team. From personal experience, you cannot win the game you are planning to play tomorrow if you do not win the game today. Luke has proven to be one of the best in the nation and deserves game the 1 start. Jake is in that mix of top ten in the nation, so game 2, then Drew for the trip to the supers. Take the games today as they came and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. |
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Post by jrbeavo on May 17, 2017 12:13:02 GMT -8
I am of the mindset that you start Rass or whomever for game one, then have Heimlich and Thompson lined up for the winners bracket. As I have said, game 2 is always the most important in a regional, and we should (as a seeded team) be able to handle the 4th seeded regional team. From personal experience, you cannot win the game you are planning to play tomorrow if you do not win the game today. Luke has proven to be on of the best in the nation and deserves game the 1 start. Jake is in that mix of top ten in the nation, so game 2, thane Drew for the trip to the supers. Take the games today as they came and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. That is certainly the alternate school of thought...I just don't see it that way. The overwhelming success we have had in the regular season will pay dividends, one of those dividends is that we will have a relatively weak first game in the regional. I am not suggesting running out a reserve catcher to try to win the game, but our depth is a luxury and I see an opportunity to have our ace('s) lined up to finish things off. Look at it this way, would anyone argue that (assuming we get there) in the SR we change course and go LH and Thompy in games 1 and 2? |
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Post by baseba1111 on May 17, 2017 12:16:12 GMT -8
From personal experience, you cannot win the game you are planning to play tomorrow if you do not win the game today. Luke has proven to be on of the best in the nation and deserves game the 1 start. Jake is in that mix of top ten in the nation, so game 2, thane Drew for the trip to the supers. Take the games today as they came and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. That is certainly the alternate school of thought...I just don't see it that way. The overwhelming success we have had in the regular season will pay dividends, one of those dividends is that we will have a relatively weak first game in the regional. I am not suggesting running out a reserve catcher to try to win the game, but our depth is a luxury and I see an opportunity to have our ace('s) lined up to finish things off. Look at it this way, would anyone argue that (assuming we get there) in the SR we change course and go LH and Thompy in games 1 and 2? You NEVER go with option 3 in game 1. You go with what brought you. Every team in the tourney will have a "draftable" type as their #1. You do not want to be in a do or die in game 2 because you took a flyer on game 1. NEVER EVER. |
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Post by beaverama1 on May 17, 2017 12:30:28 GMT -8
I'm in favor of moving Jake up to the 2nd starter position because you should do everything you can to win G1 and G2 in the regional. That puts you at such an advantage with your G3 opponent having to play a double header and having to beat you twice. It also sets us up nicely if we make the Super Regional where I would almost definitely want Luke 1 and Jake 2. I can understand the thought process of "playing it by ear" and deciding after G1, but I'd rather just throw our best two guys out there first.
No way we start Drew in G1 of a regional. If somehow disaster strikes and you lose that game then you put yourself at risk of not using both of your top guys. Luke will almost definitely start game and hopefully we will win big so he can either cruise and save our bullpen or be pulled early so he has a little left in the tank in case we need him Sunday or Monday.
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Post by jefframp on May 17, 2017 12:43:26 GMT -8
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Post by tamatrix on May 17, 2017 13:47:52 GMT -8
One key thing for me that the "Drew in game 1" camp is missing is that your Game 1 starter is really your only legitimate guy that can come back in Regionals and pitch on Monday if you need them to throw anything....not that it's great to do, but no way Drew with where he's at in health can come back on 2 day rest...whereas Luke possibly could. Stick with Luke #1
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Post by jrbeavo on May 17, 2017 13:53:17 GMT -8
That is certainly the alternate school of thought...I just don't see it that way. The overwhelming success we have had in the regular season will pay dividends, one of those dividends is that we will have a relatively weak first game in the regional. I am not suggesting running out a reserve catcher to try to win the game, but our depth is a luxury and I see an opportunity to have our ace('s) lined up to finish things off. Look at it this way, would anyone argue that (assuming we get there) in the SR we change course and go LH and Thompy in games 1 and 2? You NEVER go with option 3 in game 1. You go with what brought you. Every team in the tourney will have a "draftable" type as their #1. You do not want to be in a do or die in game 2 because you took a flyer on game 1. NEVER EVER. Disagree all you want, but to say that it never happens is incorrect. Plenty of highly seeded teams have done this in the past and emerged as you would expect. I understand the valid arguments against doing this, but I am unwavering in my philosophy. If we can't win our 1-4 matchup with Drew or another combo, don't expect to win it all this year. |
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Post by BeaverG20 on May 17, 2017 15:50:12 GMT -8
You NEVER go with option 3 in game 1. You go with what brought you. Every team in the tourney will have a "draftable" type as their #1. You do not want to be in a do or die in game 2 because you took a flyer on game 1. NEVER EVER. Disagree all you want, but to say that it never happens is incorrect. Plenty of highly seeded teams have done this in the past and emerged as you would expect. I understand the valid arguments against doing this, but I am unwavering in my philosophy. If we can't win our 1-4 matchup with Drew or another combo, don't expect to win it all this year. I don't expect to win it all any year, not even this one. Baseball happens, no matter what. Teams get hot, like UofA in 2012, and teams run cold, like OSU in 2014. Should OSU beat the 4 seed in their own regional? Yes. Doesn't mean baseball can't bite you. Like has been mentioned before, dance with who brung ya'. Heimlich gets the 1 game start. Maybe Thompson gets the second game, but it could be Rass as well, but Luke has earned the first day start, and you want him to be able to come back on short rest if needed. Rass is a coming back from TJ surgery and Thompson has been great, but seems to hit a wall somewhere around 90 to 95 pitches. Only twice this year has he pitched into the 8th, and never into the 9th, and only 3 times been over 100 pitches. Luke on the other hand has pitched into the 8th 6 times, 1 CG and been over 100 pitches 9 times. I don't know any staff that would look at those numbers and think about initiating a possibility of Jake being your short rest guy instead of Luke this year. Luke starts game one. |
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Post by ostate on May 17, 2017 16:04:36 GMT -8
We all know that Casey typically changes up the rotation in the post-season. This year he needs to transition Thompson to start after Heimlich. In a short series it's a huge advantage to win the first two games, and in the super regionals and CWS winning the first two games means winning the series or National Championship. By the regionals I predict our rotation will be Heimlich, Thompson, and Rasmussen in that order. |
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Post by rilesinnewberg on May 17, 2017 18:01:48 GMT -8
We all know that Casey typically changes up the rotation in the post-season. This year he needs to transition Thompson to start after Heimlich. In a short series it's a huge advantage to win the first two games, and in the super regionals and CWS winning the first two games means winning the series or National Championship. By the regionals I predict our rotation will be Heimlich, Thompson, and Rasmussen in that order. Here's your answer: www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2017/05/oregon_state_baseball_could_ma.html |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2017 5:59:27 GMT -8
Disagree all you want, but to say that it never happens is incorrect. Plenty of highly seeded teams have done this in the past and emerged as you would expect. I understand the valid arguments against doing this, but I am unwavering in my philosophy. If we can't win our 1-4 matchup with Drew or another combo, don't expect to win it all this year. I don't expect to win it all any year, not even this one. Baseball happens, no matter what. Teams get hot, like UofA in 2012, and teams run cold, like OSU in 2014. Should OSU beat the 4 seed in their own regional? Yes. Doesn't mean baseball can't bite you. Like has been mentioned before, dance with who brung ya'. Heimlich gets the 1 game start. Maybe Thompson gets the second game, but it could be Rass as well, but Luke has earned the first day start, and you want him to be able to come back on short rest if needed. Rass is a coming back from TJ surgery and Thompson has been great, but seems to hit a wall somewhere around 90 to 95 pitches. Only twice this year has he pitched into the 8th, and never into the 9th, and only 3 times been over 100 pitches. Luke on the other hand has pitched into the 8th 6 times, 1 CG and been over 100 pitches 9 times. I don't know any staff that would look at those numbers and think about initiating a possibility of Jake being your short rest guy instead of Luke this year. Luke starts game one. i am too superstitious to make a poll but i wonder what the group expectation level is? Seems like Beavs getting to Omaha is the correct base wager at which Vegas doesnt even want your money. Btw i do not bet significant monies on the Beavs because its a karma thing. I Prefer to bet on the dux when they are dogs, that way i can win money on them losing or winning:-) its a kind of insurance for them winning at all. |
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