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Post by beavs6 on Apr 3, 2017 18:40:17 GMT -8
Looks like maybe 2 teams in the rearview mirror. UCLA and UW. Anyone with 4 behind in the loss column will have a hard time catching OSU. The dogs don't scare me much...but are the bruins for real? We play them in LA. Is there a case for anyone else in the conference? With 20 games(I think) left in Goss we sure look to be sitting pretty.
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Post by sagebrush on Apr 3, 2017 19:46:14 GMT -8
Wayyyyyyyyy to early. Usually 10 losses wins the Pac.
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Post by eugenedave on Apr 3, 2017 21:38:59 GMT -8
Wayyyyyyyyy to early. Usually 10 losses wins the Pac. I agree Sagey, but this is not a "usual" year. I like Warren Nolan's prediction, and say Beavs win the conference by 6 games over Zona. Everyone else is 14 or more games behind, with a conference record at or below .500. Hole is a bubble team with an RPI of 42. Uncle Phil pulls strings and gets them in, again. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Apr 3, 2017 22:44:31 GMT -8
Wayyyyyyyyy to early. Usually 10 losses wins the Pac. I agree Sagey, but this is not a "usual" year. I like Warren Nolan's prediction, and say Beavs win the conference by 6 games over Zona. Everyone else is 14 or more games behind, with a conference record at or below .500. Hole is a bubble team with an RPI of 42. Uncle Phil pulls strings and gets them in, again. Love the enthusiasm... but, maybe a tad overzealous. Assuming a stellar 26-4 (since the best 30 game champ was our own 24-6... I believe). I can see Zona at 20-10... but, "everyone else is 14 or more games behind"... meaning 12-18 or worse? Also can't be 14 games behind and be at .500 unless OSU goes 29-1. Would bet that is not happening. And we're not getting any "bubble team" in with a losing league record (team would likely have less than 30 total W's). I'm not even getting into the math of having 9 of 11 teams at or below .500. In your scenario the Pac12 looks like a bunch of weak sisters our RPI suffers and 2, maybe 3 teams get in. As much as there have been complaints about E's, small ball, LOBs, etc. I think more than the record, we've played some pretty incredible ball and had a lot of breaks go our way. Including how the schedule and weather broke. It takes a lot of talent to be 24-1, but some breaks too. But, chide all you want, it's baseball. Things will even out. |
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Post by eugenedave on Apr 4, 2017 0:07:35 GMT -8
In your scenario the Pac12 looks like a bunch of weak sisters our RPI suffers and 2, maybe 3 teams get in. As much as there have been complaints about E's, small ball, LOBs, etc. I think more than the record, we've played some pretty incredible ball and had a lot of breaks go our way. Including how the schedule and weather broke. It takes a lot of talent to be 24-1, but some breaks too. But, chide all you want, it's baseball. Things will even out. _________________________________________________________________________________________________ Here's Nolan's final conference standings:http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/predictedstandings Beavs go 29-1 in conference. Zona goes 25-7. Everyone else is at or below .500 in conference. There are three other teams with 30 or more wins. Hole is one of those. By Nolan's prediction, the P-12 is a "weak sister" this year, and only two, maybe three teams will get into the postseason. This team has capitalized on other teams giving them a break. That is what excellent teams do. They win when all seems lost. Unlike you, I do not believe that things will "even out". Beavs will run the table this year in conference, and I like their odds of getting to Omaha too. Care to make a friendly wager on that happening? |
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Post by beavs6 on Apr 4, 2017 5:33:13 GMT -8
Wayyyyyyyyy to early. Usually 10 losses wins the Pac. I completely agree. My point is I find it extremely difficult for a team more than 4 games back to be able to overtake the Beavs with prox 21 games left. That would add AZ to my list, but we own the series sweep over them...and uo who I left out of the equation just because I can.(and in the recesses of my childish heart makes me feel good.) Potential 3 team race or is there another competitor I guess is what I was asking...not crowning us Champs.(yet) PS-It would take OSU going 11-10(basically .500 ball) the rest of the way to be at the normal PAC-12 Champ 10 game loser. As much as that is possible, it would be a major disappointment at this point in the season. |
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Post by ochobeavo on Apr 4, 2017 7:08:36 GMT -8
We've got a couple nice things going for us -
- We've already swept the teams that IMO are probably going to finish 2 & 3 or maybe 2 & 4 in the conference.
- These next 2 weeks (should we continue to play well) could provide more separation as the teams behind us slug it out.
This weekend:
Utah at OSU
UW at UCLA (excellent)
Stanford at USC
Zona at WSU (would love to see the Cougs somehow steal one)
ASU at Cal
Irvine at uo
Weekend April 15:
OSU at UW
UCLA at Stanford (again, this is good)
Arizona at Oregon (love it)
WSU at ASU
Cal at Utah
Fullerton at USC
Those teams behind us have a ton of pressure to be perfect these next few weeks. You think Stanford is feeling some pressure at USC after getting swept at home? I sure do. UCLA has back to back tough series in a row...
I'm thinking we sweep Utah and take 2 of 3 vs UW (at some point, we have a bad day/don't get the breaks, UW is a quality team anyways, etc.). But in the end, we just need to keep taking care of business and we'll be in great shape.
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 4, 2017 8:13:23 GMT -8
There are going to be several teams in the 15 to 20 win bracket, which means that the bottom 6 in the conference are going to end up being punching bags for the top 6. As for us, I think that there is going to be 4 more sweeps, and three 2-1 series wins. We end up 26-3 in conference, Zona, Ucla, Furd and Fuskies probably above .500 and in the tourney. ucks on the bubble and the rest out. Can the uckies take one of the two non-cons? Yep, but it's gonna take some rotten luck to lose any of the rest of our out of conference schedule. It's up to our old friend Johnnie All-Staff and just how much Coach is going to tweak the offense in those games as to the risk there. But Warren Nolan aside, I think finishing with 5 losses is going to put us at the #1 seed nationally and this prediction and $6 bucks will get you a Venti double mocha skinny caramel latte at Starbucks    |
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Post by baseba1111 on Apr 4, 2017 11:04:18 GMT -8
In your scenario the Pac12 looks like a bunch of weak sisters our RPI suffers and 2, maybe 3 teams get in. As much as there have been complaints about E's, small ball, LOBs, etc. I think more than the record, we've played some pretty incredible ball and had a lot of breaks go our way. Including how the schedule and weather broke. It takes a lot of talent to be 24-1, but some breaks too. But, chide all you want, it's baseball. Things will even out. _________________________________________________________________________________________________ Here's Nolan's final conference standings:http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/predictedstandings Beavs go 29-1 in conference. Zona goes 25-7. Everyone else is at or below .500 in conference. There are three other teams with 30 or more wins. Hole is one of those. By Nolan's prediction, the P-12 is a "weak sister" this year, and only two, maybe three teams will get into the postseason. This team has capitalized on other teams giving them a break. That is what excellent teams do. They win when all seems lost. Unlike you, I do not believe that things will "even out". Beavs will run the table this year in conference, and I like their odds of getting to Omaha too. Care to make a friendly wager on that happening? Lol... and you know how accurate Nolan is when all is said and done! I'll wager... the Beavs will not go 29-1... and Zona can't go 25-7! So was that one inclusive bet? Then I've won. Two separate bets? 1-0 me 😊 |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 4, 2017 12:10:36 GMT -8
We've got a couple nice things going for us - - We've already swept the teams that IMO are probably going to finish 2 & 3 or maybe 2 & 4 in the conference. - These next 2 weeks (should we continue to play well) could provide more separation as the teams behind us slug it out. This weekend: Utah at OSU UW at UCLA (excellent) Stanford at USC Zona at WSU (would love to see the Cougs somehow steal one) ASU at Cal Irvine at uo Weekend April 15: OSU at UW UCLA at Stanford (again, this is good) Arizona at Oregon (love it) WSU at ASU Cal at Utah Fullerton at USC Those teams behind us have a ton of pressure to be perfect these next few weeks. You think Stanford is feeling some pressure at USC after getting swept at home? I sure do. UCLA has back to back tough series in a row... I'm thinking we sweep Utah and take 2 of 3 vs UW (at some point, we have a bad day/don't get the breaks, UW is a quality team anyways, etc.). But in the end, we just need to keep taking care of business and we'll be in great shape. No offense, but there is a lot of counting chickens before they hatch here. We sweep Utah? Based upon what? 8 Pac-12 teams play midweek games this week, including Oregon State. One team that does not? Utah. The Utes have five days to prepare for the Beavers. The Beavers will only have three days to prepare for the Utes and will have two fewer days of rest. So far, Utah has beat Cal State Bakersfield and UTSA on the road and New Mexico State and Oregon at home. They have two series losses, one to Stanford and one to Washington, both on the road. Utah played the other side of the Big Ten/Pac-12 Challenge in Suprise. The Utes also went 3-1 against Nebraska and Ohio State, putting up seven more runs than the Beavers were able to against the pair. Utah is also the defending Pac-12 champions and beat Mississippi in Oxford last year. I think Oregon State takes the series against Utah, but I do not think that it will be a walk in the park. In any case, sleeping on Utah would be a huge mistake. |
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Post by beaverbeliever on Apr 4, 2017 13:09:47 GMT -8
No offense, but there is a lot of counting chickens before they hatch here. We sweep Utah? Based upon what? Based on the 19-game winning streak, the best pitching staff in America, our outstanding homefield advantage, our continually improving hitting attack, etc. Oh, and we're probably annoyed we let them take the conference championship last year too. We have the #1 team in America, expecting anything less than a sweep is silly. Doesn't mean the team should take them for granted, but come on. |
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Post by ochobeavo on Apr 4, 2017 13:13:11 GMT -8
No offense, but there is a lot of counting chickens before they hatch here. We sweep Utah? Based upon what? Based on the 19-game winning streak, the best pitching staff in America, our outstanding homefield advantage, our continually improving hitting attack, etc. Oh, and we're probably annoyed we let them take the conference championship last year too. We have the #1 team in America, expecting anything less than a sweep is silly. Doesn't mean the team should take them for granted, but come on. Exactly that. Not to mention, me sleeping on Utah and the actual Beaver baseball players sleeping on Utah are two very different and unrelated things. So yes, I think we will sweep Utah. You think we will take the series. So we disagree by a whopping 1 game. |
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Post by orangeexpress on Apr 4, 2017 13:39:39 GMT -8
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 4, 2017 13:49:18 GMT -8
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 4, 2017 15:16:33 GMT -8
I agree Sagey, but this is not a "usual" year. I like Warren Nolan's prediction, and say Beavs win the conference by 6 games over Zona. Everyone else is 14 or more games behind, with a conference record at or below .500. Hole is a bubble team with an RPI of 42. Uncle Phil pulls strings and gets them in, again. Love the enthusiasm... but, maybe a tad overzealous. Assuming a stellar 26-4 (since the best 30 game champ was our own 24-6... I believe). I can see Zona at 20-10... but, "everyone else is 14 or more games behind"... meaning 12-18 or worse? Also can't be 14 games behind and be at .500 unless OSU goes 29-1. Would bet that is not happening. And we're not getting any "bubble team" in with a losing league record (team would likely have less than 30 total W's). I'm not even getting into the math of having 9 of 11 teams at or below .500. In your scenario the Pac12 looks like a bunch of weak sisters our RPI suffers and 2, maybe 3 teams get in. As much as there have been complaints about E's, small ball, LOBs, etc. I think more than the record, we've played some pretty incredible ball and had a lot of breaks go our way. Including how the schedule and weather broke. It takes a lot of talent to be 24-1, but some breaks too. But, chide all you want, it's baseball. Things will even out. The best 30-game champion was Oregon State in 2013. That team started 15-0 before dropping a midweek game against San Francisco. The Beavers then went 6-1 to start 21-2. Oregon State then split the first two-of-three in San Diego to start 22-3, two games off of the current pace. (For reference, the Beavers also went 8-1 against @arizona, Arizona State, and @stanford versus 9-0 this year.) Oregon State finished 23-7 over their final 30 to finish 45-10 in the regular season. The Committee gave the Beavers the #3 national seed. Oregon State swept through its Regional. Oregon State lost the first game of the Super Regional in extra innings but rebounded to advance to the College World Series. In a still-confusing move to me, Andrew Moore started (and Boyd relieved) and Oregon State lost to Mississippi State. Wetzler picked up a win. Boyd scattered four hits in a complete game shutout. Moore then came back to lose to Mississippi State a second time to end the Beavers' season. The last team to do better than that was Washington in 1997 in the Northern Division. The Huskies went 20-4 in the North and the beat Stanford two-of-three in Stanford to win the Pac-10. #3 Stanford and #4 UCLA each received a #1 seed in a regional. Washington was given a three and had to travel to Starkville, losing two-of-three to host Mississippi State. Stanford and UCLA each won their regionals and went to the College World Series. UCLA lost two straight (the final game to Mississippi State). Stanford finished second in the other side of the bracket to eventual champion LSU. The last team to finish 24-6 prior to Oregon State in 2013 was USC in 1996. USC won the Pac-10 by beating Washington two-of-three in Los Angeles. USC was given a #1 seed but sent to Lubbock. Oklahoma State ended up winning the regional and went to the College World Series, losing two straight games to Alabama and Clemson. The last team to do better than 24-6/20-4? In 1981, Arizona State went 26-4 and 47-12 overall. The Sun Devils beat Gonzaga and swept Cal State Fullerton in the West Regional. In the College World Series, Arizona State won the first two to advance to the semi-finals but lost to Oklahoma State in 13 innings. The Sun Devils won the next two and rebounded to beat Oklahoma State in the championship game to win their fifth and, so far, final championship. USC went 16-2 in 1977 and then went 2-0 against Washington State to finish 18-2 in conference. At the West Regional in Honolulu, USC lost to Cal State Los Angeles twice. Cal State Los Angeles finished fourth at the College World Series. USC went 17-0 in 1971 and then went 3-1 in the Pac-8 playoffs to finish 20-1 in conference. USC beat Santa Clara two-out-of-three in Los Angeles to advance to Omaha. USC dropped one to Southern Illinois but rebounded to win the tournament by beating Southern Illinois in the championship game 7-2. There may be a team that did better prior to 1946, but the records start to get murkier then, because of World War II. Based upon 2013, a reasonable back 30 would be 23-7. If Oregon State can go 18-3 over the last 21 in conference, the Beavers may break, from what I can find, Arizona State's 1981 30-game record of 26-4. Oregon State would need to go 20-1 the rest of the way to best USC's 1971 record (at least percentage-wise). Obviously, if you exclude the Pac-8 playoff results from USC's 1971 record, Oregon State would have to go 21-0 the rest of the way to best USC's 1971 17-0 record. |
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