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Post by jrbeavo on May 27, 2024 9:25:12 GMT -8
I have said it before and I will say it again...you throw May in game 2 against (presumably) UCI's #2. The idea is to win the regional, not the first game of the regional. I have always believed that approach gives us our best shot. Obviously a loss in game one is virtually fatal, but a loss in game 2 is just slightly less fatal.
My question is do you pitch Kmatz against Green Wave or Segura?
I usually get bashed for this opinion, but I am back for more.
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Post by beavermd on May 27, 2024 9:30:56 GMT -8
I have said it before and I will say it again...you throw May in game 2 against (presumably) UCI's #2. The idea is to win the regional, not the first game of the regional. I have always believed that approach gives us our best shot. Obviously a loss in game one is virtually fatal, but a loss in game 2 is just slightly less fatal. My question is do you pitch Kmatz against Green Wave or Segura? I usually get bashed for this opinion, but I am back for more. I don’t think you throw a freshman out in the first game of the postseason because if you lose, you run the risk of not having thrown one of your two best pitchers in the regional. I see the argument for Kmatz Friday, but Tulane has hit 90 HRs this year. Kmatz leads the Beavs in HR against at 10 in 75 innings. May has only given up 3 in 63 IP. If the coaches feel like Tulane matches up well against Kmatz then they’ll absolutely throw May. Neither UC Irvine or Nichols have a 2nd starter as good as Kmatz so we have the advantage no matter what in the winners bracket. |
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Post by beaverboilermaker on May 27, 2024 9:55:17 GMT -8
I was thinking Kmatz, then Aiden, then Segura, mainly because May pitched last week and Kmatz did not. Gotta have our top 2 guys in the first 2 games not just in the Regional but also to set pitching for the Supers.
But I had not researched Tulane and their HR totals yet. Could even come down to weather - those HRs die in the OF when Goss is cold and wet.
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Post by jrbeavo on May 27, 2024 9:59:45 GMT -8
I was thinking Kmatz, then Aiden, then Segura, mainly because May pitched last week and Kmatz did not. Gotta have our top 2 guys in the first 2 games not just in the Regional but also to set pitching for the Supers. But I had not researched Tulane and their HR totals yet. Could even come down to weather - those HRs die in the OF when Goss is cold and wet. I think Friday will be a warm, ball-flying day as will Saturday. Sunday may be a little wet. I certainly agree that the only move is the switch 1 and 2 as opposed to going "mid-week" in game one. |
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Post by jimbeav on May 27, 2024 10:42:33 GMT -8
Normally I say don't mess with the rotation, but Kmatz not pitching last week is hard to ignore.
On the other hand, if the Kmatz shows up that completely shut down Arizona in his last outing, I feel good about throwing him against anybody.
For me, I think it boils down to the fact that there isn't much of a dropoff from our #1 to our #2. I have confidence in Kmatz to take care of business this year.
These small conference 4 seeds usually have a solid Friday night guy, and I just don't like taking chances.
Plus if you throw May first, he's potentially available for spot reliever duty in the last game if disaster strikes.
I say start May, and if our bats are alive and scoring, keep a short leash, maybe the min 5 innings to get a decision, and call it good. But if we're getting stymied at the plate, we'll be glad that Aiden is out there.
Just too much of a chance of our lineup going cold against a team's ace. I want May out there as added insurance since we just never know which hitting team is going to show up in orange and black...
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Post by ihatetheducks on May 27, 2024 11:02:18 GMT -8
If we can't beat a #4 seed with our 2nd best pitcher we likely aren't going very far. Save May for game two.
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Post by jrbeavo on May 27, 2024 11:07:18 GMT -8
If we can't beat a #4 seed with our 2nd best pitcher we likely aren't going very far. Save May for game two. That has always been the philosophy that informs my opinion on this matter. |
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Post by 56chevy on May 27, 2024 12:30:26 GMT -8
I believe we messed with the rotation in 2014 and the end result was that as the #1 National seed we were out. Got beat by a team whose mascot was an ant eater.
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easyheat
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Post by easyheat on May 27, 2024 13:04:29 GMT -8
If you want to flex your rotation, consider this.
UCI plays the first game on Friday, so wait and see if they throw Pinto - if they do, throw May v Tulane. If not, throw Kmatz v Tulane and save May for UCI and the matchup with Pinto.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on May 27, 2024 13:21:03 GMT -8
I believe we messed with the rotation in 2014 and the end result was that as the #1 National seed we were out. Got beat by a team whose mascot was an ant eater. 2014 was messed up at the end because of Wetzler's suspension. Moore started regional game 1, and Jace Fry started Game 2, like he had for much of the season. He was 11-1, but got lit up. Wetzler pitched game 3, Scott Schultz Game 4 and Jake Thompson Game 5. We got beat by a good team that then killed Okie State in the super and went to Omaha. Not because we messed with our rotation. Conforto was in a massive slump and Andy Peterson was still hurt after getting dinged in the dogpile celebrating the Pac-12 title and had one or two hits in the entire regional. And Irvine's game-ending DP in Game 5 was a total neighborhood play at second, guy was two steps off the bag when he caught the ball and relayed it. Today that would have been reviewed and we would have played on. |
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Post by beaver1989 on May 27, 2024 14:03:59 GMT -8
I like keeping the rotation in order because if we advance out of our regional, it gives us the best chance at putting our opponent in the super regional & Omaha a loss in game 1.
Who did LSU coach Jay Johnson pitch against Tulane last year in the Baton Rouge regional?
Answer: Paul Skenes pitched game 1 and many LSU fans were livid. It eventually worked out for Johnson & LSU with a national championship last year.
Also if we didn't throw Hjerpe against Mejia of New Mexico St in 2022, do we advance to a Super Regional?
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beavs6
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Post by beavs6 on May 27, 2024 16:05:20 GMT -8
I (can't believe I'm going on record) think I like Kmatz on Friday.
May can pitch on 6 days rest if needed next week.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 27, 2024 16:07:37 GMT -8
I believe we messed with the rotation in 2014 and the end result was that as the #1 National seed we were out. Got beat by a team whose mascot was an ant eater. 2014 was messed up at the end because of Wetzler's suspension. Moore started regional game 1, and Jace Fry started Game 2, like he had for much of the season. He was 11-1, but got lit up. Wetzler pitched game 3, Scott Schultz Game 4 and Jake Thompson Game 5. We got beat by a good team that then killed Okie State in the super and went to Omaha. Not because we messed with our rotation. Conforto was in a massive slump and Andy Peterson was still hurt after getting dinged in the dogpile celebrating the Pac-12 title and had one or two hits in the entire regional. And Irvine's game-ending DP in Game 5 was a total neighborhood play at second, guy was two steps off the bag when he caught the ball and relayed it. Today that would have been reviewed and we would have played on. Conforto, along with our bats in general slumping, was the biggest issue in '14. I remember feeling very nervous going into that regional, even though we had the overall #1 seed. |
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Post by avidbeaver on May 27, 2024 16:17:09 GMT -8
Don't mess with the rotation. The Beavers aren't exactly hitting the post season on fire. In fact, you can make a good argument that they have declined a little at the end of the season. I don't think the Beavers can take a chance. The play lately isn't something to be crowing about going into the regional. In fact, if they hadn't beat ASU, they probably wouldn't have been a national seed.
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Post by bvrbooster on May 27, 2024 16:22:02 GMT -8
That's an interesting concept, and, as the number 1 seed in the regional, I think I agree with starting the Saturday guy against the 4 seed and saving May for the 2 or 3 seed. I also agree with the idea of yanking them early if the scoring margin is high enough - enough being defined as 3 walks, 2 hit batters, and 1 error still wouldn't be enough to lose us the game.
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