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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 12, 2024 21:34:34 GMT -8
You don't have to be Top 8 seed to host, it's helpful but there's a lot of politics in the decisions made. If it was selected today based on RPI the super hosts would be 5 SEC schools, 2 ACC schools and Indiana State. Regional selection would be 7 SEC, 5 ACC, Indiana State, Eastern Carolina, OSU and Oklahoma. RPI is flawed on its own as selection criteria. For instance Indiana States best wins is Xavier and S. Miss who aren't that good. Their best opponent imo is Vandy who they played on the road as got run ruled by. Generally there is two ways that you can collectively game RPI as a conference. First is make sure you play alot of SEac and ACC schools on the road. You pick up alot of losses but because 75% of your RPI is based on opponents play this lifts the conferences RPI. Generally the conferences that send sacrifices to the SEC and ACC get pretty good conference RPI. The other method is to keep your conference win rate very high while limiting risky games to in conference foes and tournaments with no home field penalty. The SEC does this extremely well by loading up their home schedules and doing very little travel outside the conference. This is the same model the beavs should adopt imo, going all in on home field and having a great win rate. If the committee gives the SEC and ACC 7 super spots then what's the point of college baseball anymore. There have been two years where the ACC and SEC combined for seven top eight seeds, and they are the two worst Tournaments: 2016 and 2023. It is hard to not see the ACC and SEC getting seven top eight seeds. I think that Florida State right now looks like a Regional Host but not a top eight seed. I think that Wake, Virginia, and Mississippi State look like they are in the same boat. Alabama has a stupid high RPI, but they may not even get a bid, if they get swept in Auburn or do not have a good SEC Tournament. I think that East Carolina or Indiana State are next in line for a top eight seed with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, or Oregon State next in line if one or both of those teams falter. South Carolina was looking good for a host spot last week but now basically need to sweep Tennessee in Knoxville to get back into that discussion. Oklahoma State and Santa Barbara are the current other teams that are currently in play with other teams being able to play their way in or back in, in case one of the above-mentioned teams stumble. |
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chinmusic
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Post by chinmusic on May 12, 2024 22:07:35 GMT -8
D1's Top-10 teams and how they fared this past week'
Rank Team Record Last week Results
1 Tennessee 42-10 3-1 Queens W 6-3, at Vanderbilt: W 8-4, W 7-4, L 3-0
2 Clemson 37-13 1-3 at Charlotte W 14-12, at Wake Forest: L 4-2, L 8-5, L 13-3
3 Texas A&M 42-10 2-2 Rice W 16-3, at Ole Miss: L 4-3, L 10-2, W 6-0
4 Kentucky 37-11 2-1 at Florida: W 12-11, L 10-1, W 7-5
5 Arkansas 42-10 2-1 Mississippi State: W 7-5, L 8-5, W 9-6
6 East Carolina 37-13 0-4 Duke L 5-2, at Tulane: L 6-5, L 7-3, L 10-9
7 Oregon State 39-12 4-0 at Gonzaga W 20-13, UCLA: W 11-0, W 12-11, W 15-1
8 Florida State 37-12 2-2 Jacksonville W 7-6, at Pittsburgh: L 1-0, L 9-7, W 15-4
9 Duke 34-16 2-2 at East Carolina W 5-2, at Georgia Tech: L 11-8, W 14-10, L 8-6
10 Virginia 37-14 2-2 George Washington W 18-5, NC State: L 7-5, W 9-5, L 13-5
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 13, 2024 6:34:21 GMT -8
I believe zona only has to win one against us to win the conference. If they win the conference they will host. Huge series.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 13, 2024 6:56:12 GMT -8
I believe zona only has to win one against us to win the conference. If they win the conference they will host. Huge series. Correct. We have to sweep to win the conference. |
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Post by richard44 on May 13, 2024 7:00:24 GMT -8
I believe zona only has to win one against us to win the conference. If they win the conference they will host. Huge series. Could we still be a regional host if we win 2 of 3 from them? That would put us at 41 wins, top ten in the country, and the best overall record in the pac 12 by a good amount of games. At that point I believe we would only finish 2nd by default, because we didn’t have a chance to play and win that third USC game. Assuming we win 2 of 3, that means we beat the 3 other top teams in the conference in our series against them (UA, Utah, Oregon). Obviously if we lose the series at UA, all bets are off. But how do we not finish as a regional host if we beat UA 2 out of 3? I don’t think we finish as a top 8 seed, unless we damn near win out, but right now I’m hoping we can hang on to host a regional. If we do that, we always have a chance to host a super if top 8 seed is upset in their regional. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 13, 2024 7:44:01 GMT -8
An RPI of 8 would be a lock to be a national seed and host regional/supers... A top 15 RPI would be a lock for a regional host - I hope anyways... We're sitting at a solid 14 RPI right now; a win today and a series win over az would (most likely) keep us in the 10-16 RPI range... According to Boyd's World, Oregon State stays in the top 16 by winning one game in Tucson. If Arizona sweeps, Arizona is likely a Regional Host. If Oregon State wins the series with Arizona, Oregon State is likely a Regional Host, i.e. I cannot imagine the Beavs getting punished for the third game in Irvine raining out. The question is what happens in a 2-1 Arizona series win. And it is compounded by what Oregon and Utah do in their final three games, because Oregon or Utah can slide past Oregon State into second with a sweep. And either occurrence (and especially both) would make doing very well in the Pac-12 Tournament a must. If no teams pass Oregon State into second, the Beavs likely need to do better than the Wildcats in the Pac-12 Tournament to earn a Regional Host bid. Does zona host as Pac 12 champion? Seems like that should earn a top 16 seed, regardless of RPI |
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Post by rgeorge on May 13, 2024 8:57:22 GMT -8
According to Boyd's World, Oregon State stays in the top 16 by winning one game in Tucson. If Arizona sweeps, Arizona is likely a Regional Host. If Oregon State wins the series with Arizona, Oregon State is likely a Regional Host, i.e. I cannot imagine the Beavs getting punished for the third game in Irvine raining out. The question is what happens in a 2-1 Arizona series win. And it is compounded by what Oregon and Utah do in their final three games, because Oregon or Utah can slide past Oregon State into second with a sweep. And either occurrence (and especially both) would make doing very well in the Pac-12 Tournament a must. If no teams pass Oregon State into second, the Beavs likely need to do better than the Wildcats in the Pac-12 Tournament to earn a Regional Host bid. Does zona host as Pac 12 champion? Seems like that should earn a top 16 seed, regardless of RPI Unless it's changed the winner of the Pac12 tournament gets the auto bid. A dark horse winner would probably not be a Top 16 host. But, being at least the #2 seed is big when it comes to tie breaker system. Unless OSU goes 2-0 in pool play (or 0-2!) they will be tied with other 1-1 teams. Highest seed breaks the tie. So unless the #1 seed also goes 1-1, splitting pool play wouldn't doom a semi appearance. With Pac12 RPI #s it wouldn't help in that regard. Of course the schedule of the tournament favors #1, #2 seeds with no games on Day 1/Tuesday (saves fans $ if you're team is a #1-3 seed). Plus early (#2 10am) and late (#1 7pm) starts. The biggest advantage is to the #1 seed. Playing the last game on Thursday they can tell what they need to do to advance. They play the #9 seed Wednesday night, followed by the #6. Assuming a 1st win they will know they can pitch anyone in the 2nd game and set up their semi staff as 1-1 will get them in. As a #2 it's almost imperative you go 2-0 for that reason. Playing the #8 early Wed and #5 early Thurs a 1-1 record doesn't assure advancing. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 13, 2024 13:43:32 GMT -8
Does zona host as Pac 12 champion? Seems like that should earn a top 16 seed, regardless of RPI Unless it's changed the winner of the Pac12 tournament gets the auto bid. A dark horse winner would probably not be a Top 16 host. But, being at least the #2 seed is big when it comes to tie breaker system. Unless OSU goes 2-0 in pool play (or 0-2!) they will be tied with other 1-1 teams. Highest seed breaks the tie. So unless the #1 seed also goes 1-1, splitting pool play wouldn't doom a semi appearance. With Pac12 RPI #s it wouldn't help in that regard. Of course the schedule of the tournament favors #1, #2 seeds with no games on Day 1/Tuesday (saves fans $ if you're team is a #1-3 seed). Plus early (#2 10am) and late (#1 7pm) starts. The biggest advantage is to the #1 seed. Playing the last game on Thursday they can tell what they need to do to advance. They play the #9 seed Wednesday night, followed by the #6. Assuming a 1st win they will know they can pitch anyone in the 2nd game and set up their semi staff as 1-1 will get them in. As a #2 it's almost imperative you go 2-0 for that reason. Playing the #8 early Wed and #5 early Thurs a 1-1 record doesn't assure advancing. The #2 or #3 seed gets to watch the lower-seeded teams play on Tuesday. The #2 and #3 seeds only have to beat the team that wins the Tuesday game. The winner of the first game and the top seed in each mini-bracket advances. If Oregon State had beat Arizona last year, the Beavs would have advanced, even losing to the Devils like they did. Washington advanced getting beat 17-4 to UCLA but rebounding to beat USC 8-3. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 13, 2024 13:45:13 GMT -8
I believe zona only has to win one against us to win the conference. If they win the conference they will host. Huge series. Could we still be a regional host if we win 2 of 3 from them? That would put us at 41 wins, top ten in the country, and the best overall record in the pac 12 by a good amount of games. At that point I believe we would only finish 2nd by default, because we didn’t have a chance to play and win that third USC game. Assuming we win 2 of 3, that means we beat the 3 other top teams in the conference in our series against them (UA, Utah, Oregon). Obviously if we lose the series at UA, all bets are off. But how do we not finish as a regional host if we beat UA 2 out of 3? I don’t think we finish as a top 8 seed, unless we damn near win out, but right now I’m hoping we can hang on to host a regional. If we do that, we always have a chance to host a super if top 8 seed is upset in their regional. I think Oregon State hosts with a series win, unless Oregon or Utah sweep. The Beavers look a lot better as a a regional host as two-seed in the Pac-12 Tournament than a three-seed behind Oregon or Utah (or a four-seed behind both). |
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Post by osubeaver2018 on May 13, 2024 16:43:46 GMT -8
I believe zona only has to win one against us to win the conference. If they win the conference they will host. Huge series. Could we still be a regional host if we win 2 of 3 from them? That would put us at 41 wins, top ten in the country, and the best overall record in the pac 12 by a good amount of games. At that point I believe we would only finish 2nd by default, because we didn’t have a chance to play and win that third USC game. Assuming we win 2 of 3, that means we beat the 3 other top teams in the conference in our series against them (UA, Utah, Oregon). Obviously if we lose the series at UA, all bets are off. But how do we not finish as a regional host if we beat UA 2 out of 3? I don’t think we finish as a top 8 seed, unless we damn near win out, but right now I’m hoping we can hang on to host a regional. If we do that, we always have a chance to host a super if top 8 seed is upset in their regional. Based off the comments from D1 who seem to be rating our hosting prospects the harshest right now, they think with a series win against UA a host for us should be a lock. I would be shocked if a 41 regular season win OSU team ending the season with a ranked road series win is not a regional host. Probably need a sweep if we want a chance at top 8. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 14, 2024 16:43:25 GMT -8
FSU lost to Stetson so that helps.
7 ranked teams has cancelations.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on May 14, 2024 17:16:05 GMT -8
FSU lost to Stetson so that helps. 7 ranked teams has cancelations. Cancellations due to weather? Or the ranked teams cancelled to protect RPI? Because I'm pretty sure the new rules are in place this year to punish teams for cancelling games at the end of the season. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 14, 2024 17:23:03 GMT -8
FSU lost to Stetson so that helps. 7 ranked teams has cancelations. Cancellations due to weather? Or the ranked teams cancelled to protect RPI? Because I'm pretty sure the new rules are in place this year to punish teams for cancelling games at the end of the season. I mean it rained... |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 15, 2024 12:12:43 GMT -8
Fwiw, D1's latest projection has us beating Zona, and getting #13 seed, matched up with #4 Texas A&M.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 15, 2024 12:20:31 GMT -8
Fwiw, D1's latest projection has us beating Zona, and getting #13 seed, matched up with #4 Texas A&M. Their top 8 is 5 SEC and 3 ACC. 5 regional hosts representing other conferences. |
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