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Post by ostate on May 12, 2024 9:59:26 GMT -8
It's a long shot to be a national seed right now...
We are currently 200+ RPI points behind FL State - the current RPI #8...
1) We would have to win out, including the P12 tourney.
2) We'd also need everyone ahead of us to lose out; FL State, Indiana State, Wake Forest, bama, Virginia and East Carolina...
3) Lastly, we need everyone behind us to lose out so they don't catch/overtake us; Miss State, the school in norman, S. Carolina, UC Santa Barbara, Pokes, Duke and Dallas Baptist...
It is possible, if we win out, that the selection committee will give us a national seed for winning the regular season P12 title as well as the P12 tourney regardless of RPI since the slight change in the evaluation process by the committee - but I'd doubt...
To win out, it's imperative that we get the first day bye for the P12 in order to save some pitching...
Realistically, I'm just hoping for a regional host bid and stealing a super host due to a loss of the national seed of the other regional that we'd would be paired with...
Go Beavs!
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Post by 56chevy on May 12, 2024 10:08:06 GMT -8
Not sure we have to get to eight. 10 or 11 is theoretically achievable, which might be enough if we are best west coast selection. As has been previously mentioned they have reached to get Stanford in recent years. As a baseball school proposition we have all the resume of Stanford and then some...
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 12, 2024 10:31:13 GMT -8
Let's start by beating UCLA today. We really should've lost yesterday. 4 errors and we got out-hit. Luckily the long ball saved us. Hopefully Segura can cool their bats off today.
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Post by ostate on May 12, 2024 10:46:20 GMT -8
Not sure we have to get to eight. 10 or 11 is theoretically achievable, which might be enough if we are best west coast selection. As has been previously mentioned they have reached to get Stanford in recent years. As a baseball school proposition we have all the resume of Stanford and then some... An RPI of 8 would be a lock to be a national seed and host regional/supers... A top 15 RPI would be a lock for a regional host - I hope anyways... We're sitting at a solid 14 RPI right now; a win today and a series win over az would (most likely) keep us in the 10-16 RPI range... |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 12, 2024 11:16:46 GMT -8
You don't have to be Top 8 seed to host, it's helpful but there's a lot of politics in the decisions made. If it was selected today based on RPI the super hosts would be 5 SEC schools, 2 ACC schools and Indiana State.
Regional selection would be 7 SEC, 5 ACC, Indiana State, Eastern Carolina, OSU and Oklahoma.
RPI is flawed on its own as selection criteria. For instance Indiana States best wins is Xavier and S. Miss who aren't that good. Their best opponent imo is Vandy who they played on the road as got run ruled by.
Generally there is two ways that you can collectively game RPI as a conference.
First is make sure you play alot of SEac and ACC schools on the road. You pick up alot of losses but because 75% of your RPI is based on opponents play this lifts the conferences RPI. Generally the conferences that send sacrifices to the SEC and ACC get pretty good conference RPI.
The other method is to keep your conference win rate very high while limiting risky games to in conference foes and tournaments with no home field penalty. The SEC does this extremely well by loading up their home schedules and doing very little travel outside the conference. This is the same model the beavs should adopt imo, going all in on home field and having a great win rate.
If the committee gives the SEC and ACC 7 super spots then what's the point of college baseball anymore.
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Post by ostate on May 12, 2024 11:38:39 GMT -8
You don't have to be Top 8 seed to host, it's helpful but there's a lot of politics in the decisions made. If it was selected today based on RPI the super hosts would be 5 SEC schools, 2 ACC schools and Indiana State. Regional selection would be 7 SEC, 5 ACC, Indiana State, Eastern Carolina, OSU and Oklahoma. RPI is flawed on its own as selection criteria. For instance Indiana States best wins is Xavier and S. Miss who aren't that good. Their best opponent imo is Vandy who they played on the road as got run ruled by. Generally there is two ways that you can collectively game RPI as a conference. First is make sure you play alot of SEac and ACC schools on the road. You pick up alot of losses but because 75% of your RPI is based on opponents play this lifts the conferences RPI. Generally the conferences that send sacrifices to the SEC and ACC get pretty good conference RPI. The other method is to keep your conference win rate very high while limiting risky games to in conference foes and tournaments with no home field penalty. The SEC does this extremely well by loading up their home schedules and doing very little travel outside the conference. This is the same model the beavs should adopt imo, going all in on home field and having a great win rate. If the committee gives the SEC and ACC 7 super spots then what's the point of college baseball anymore. The top 8 seeds are super regional hosts if they win... The selection committee 'updated' the RPI data they use ever so slightly and added KPI... IMHO if we have a top 8 RPI ranking, we would be one of the national seeds (top 8)... |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 12, 2024 12:11:19 GMT -8
Yeah that's just not how it works in reality. Do you think Indiana State or 19 loss Bama are better selections than us? No, they probably also aren't better teams even though RPI says they are. We are one RPI slot above 17 loss Oklahoma. Last year was kind of a disaster post season and factoring RPI too heavily was part of it. 7 of the 16 hosts lost their regional and 3 of the 8 super seeds lost their regional. The 5 super seeds that made it to the super did make it to the CWS.
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Post by ostate on May 12, 2024 12:46:48 GMT -8
Yeah that's just not how it works in reality. Do you think Indiana State or 19 loss Bama are better selections than us? No, they probably also aren't better teams even though RPI says they are. We are one RPI slot above 17 loss Oklahoma. Last year was kind of a disaster post season and factoring RPI too heavily was part of it. 7 of the 16 hosts lost their regional and 3 of the 8 super seeds lost their regional. The 5 super seeds that made it to the super did make it to the CWS. I'll have to (respectfully) disagree with ya on this... I still think if we were #8 in the RPI we'd be a shoe-in for a national seed (top 8); but it may be a moot point as time is running out for us and teams ahead of us are winning today... Too many RPI points to make up to get to the #8 spot... Last year was a total disaster and as a result, they changed the "quadrant" category definition in an attempt to help (I guess) and added the KPI as a data set available to the committee this year... For instance, the current RPI #1 Kentucky has no non-conference games in Q1; all of their Q1 games have been in conference; hoping this helps with a better selection of national seeds rather than a bunch of sec teams that play (generally) no difficult non-conference games... |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 12, 2024 13:05:45 GMT -8
Oh I definitely think we're in with an 8 RPI. I also doubt it's necessary. At some point they need to look at stuff like margin of victory vs quadrants. You can lose 10 games to the SEC on the road with a 1 run or 20 run margin and it's all the same. Xavier has been demolished by good teams all season but their RPI is above Zona, LSU, Florida, and Vandy.
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Post by tamatrix on May 12, 2024 13:27:08 GMT -8
East Carolina just got swept...that helps a lot
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 12, 2024 14:43:53 GMT -8
East Carolina just got swept...that helps a lot Quite a few teams finishing the season with a whimper in the top 15. |
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Post by bvrbooster on May 12, 2024 15:38:44 GMT -8
East Carolina just got swept...that helps a lot Quite a few teams finishing the season with a whimper in the top 15. All we can do is keep winning and let the chips fall where they may. I don't follow all this alphabetical stuff like you guys do, but a lot of top teams are doing a lot of losing right now while we won 4 this week (and scored 58 runs in doing so). I have to think that committee would want some semblance of geographic balance, and would like, if possible, to give us the nod over yet another team from the former Confederate States of America. So, beat Arizona, and give them the justification they need. |
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Post by rgeorge on May 12, 2024 16:21:58 GMT -8
Quite a few teams finishing the season with a whimper in the top 15. All we can do is keep winning and let the chips fall where they may. I don't follow all this alphabetical stuff like you guys do, but a lot of top teams are doing a lot of losing right now while we won 4 this week (and scored 58 runs in doing so). I have to think that committee would want some semblance of geographic balance, and would like, if possible, to give us the nod over yet another team from the former Confederate States of America. So, beat Arizona, and give them the justification they need. Part of the issue can't be "undone". Last I looked OSU's average RPI win was 120. That's pretty bad and most likely the lowest of any of the upper P5 teams in the RPI rankings. Sweeping a road series, not done to this point (4-7 so far?), would be a good first step. But, a Pac12 tourney win might be needed to confirm any thing resembling a top 8 seed. All these other losses by teams are mostly to highly ranked opponents. Huge difference than home sweep of a terrible (#197?) UCLA team. Current RPI #14, ELO #21... Arizona wins are a must. |
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ftd
Sophomore
"I think real leaders show up when times are hard." Trent Bray 11/29/2023
Posts: 2,420
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Post by ftd on May 12, 2024 18:35:53 GMT -8
 I like our chances of moving up two spots or more in the upcoming polls based on how teams ahead of us did this week |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 12, 2024 21:13:15 GMT -8
Not sure we have to get to eight. 10 or 11 is theoretically achievable, which might be enough if we are best west coast selection. As has been previously mentioned they have reached to get Stanford in recent years. As a baseball school proposition we have all the resume of Stanford and then some... An RPI of 8 would be a lock to be a national seed and host regional/supers... A top 15 RPI would be a lock for a regional host - I hope anyways... We're sitting at a solid 14 RPI right now; a win today and a series win over az would (most likely) keep us in the 10-16 RPI range... According to Boyd's World, Oregon State stays in the top 16 by winning one game in Tucson. If Arizona sweeps, Arizona is likely a Regional Host. If Oregon State wins the series with Arizona, Oregon State is likely a Regional Host, i.e. I cannot imagine the Beavs getting punished for the third game in Irvine raining out. The question is what happens in a 2-1 Arizona series win. And it is compounded by what Oregon and Utah do in their final three games, because Oregon or Utah can slide past Oregon State into second with a sweep. And either occurrence (and especially both) would make doing very well in the Pac-12 Tournament a must. If no teams pass Oregon State into second, the Beavs likely need to do better than the Wildcats in the Pac-12 Tournament to earn a Regional Host bid. |
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