|
|
Post by nuclearbeaver on May 8, 2024 13:38:37 GMT -8
Inconsistency is frequently found. Baseball America has us ranked #11 in their recent poll. They also include us in there "Eight for Omaha" prediction. Rankings are usually results based (kind of) but the eight for Omaha is what they think will happen. Some of those top 25 teams have serious schedules ahead. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 8, 2024 13:55:37 GMT -8
Baseball America > D1 Baseball
The Tournament makes far more sense with two Western Regional Hosts than with just one.
The difference between the two appears to be that Mississippi State is a Regional Host in D1 Baseball and was not in Baseball America. Mississippi State has a horrible RPI (for an SEC team with a winning record) but Starkville getting a Regional helps to justify Georgia and South Carolina getting in as Regional Hosts, as well.
The real confounding issue at the moment is the same issue as in 2016. Baseball people do not respect Utah, and Oregon State being third in the Pac-12 behind Utah looks very, very bad at the moment.
Oregon State needs to pass Utah (and their 69th-best RPI) in the Pac-12 standings and stay ahead of the four teams within two games of the Beavs. (It is somewhat telling that Baseball America has Utah out and Oregon State hosting, and D1 Baseball has Utah in and Oregon State not hosting. That is the same kind of crooked nonsense that you can expect from a Committee.) If Oregon State exits next weekend as second in the Pac-12, I think that it will be universally accepted once more that Oregon State is a host.
I will add that Mississippi State heads to Arkansas this weekend, and South Carolina hosts Georgia, so there is a real chance that the Georgia-South Carolina loser and Mississippi State may clear out a spot for Oregon State once again.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 8, 2024 14:19:49 GMT -8
I want to add what BS D1's rankings are.
Oregon State has a better conference record than Georgia, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. Oregon State has a better overall record than Georgia, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. Oregon State has a better nonconference record than Mississippi State and South Carolina. Oregon State has a better nonconference SOS (61) than Georgia (97), Mississippi State (151), and South Carolina (112). Oregon State has a better nonconference RPI (5) than Georgia (7), Mississippi State (62), and South Carolina (30).
Oregon State is better than those three teams. And keeping the Beavs out to let SEC #6 host is the biggest load of bull.
I would also add that the RPI delta between Oregon State and Mississippi State (i.e. that Oregon State is ahead of Mississippi State) in RPI is more than 56% greater than the delta between Oregon State and South Carolina, i.e. it would make far more sense for Oregon State to get a host spot and leave one more SEC team out than it would be to leave Oregon State out to include both SEC teams. The delta between Oregon State and Mississippi State is greater than Oregon State and #11 Wake.
Just ridiculous!
No, D1 Baseball is wrong. I refuse to believe that they can be correct.
Baseball America > D1 Baseball.
Malarky!
|
|
|
|
Post by beaver55to7 on May 8, 2024 14:46:43 GMT -8
I want to add what BS D1's rankings are. Oregon State has a better conference record than Georgia, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. Oregon State has a better overall record than Georgia, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. Oregon State has a better nonconference record than Mississippi State and South Carolina. Oregon State has a better nonconference SOS (61) than Georgia (97), Mississippi State (151), and South Carolina (112). Oregon State has a better nonconference RPI (5) than Georgia (7), Mississippi State (62), and South Carolina (30). Oregon State is better than those three teams. And keeping the Beavs out to let SEC #6 host is the biggest load of bull. I would also add that the RPI delta between Oregon State and Mississippi State (i.e. that Oregon State is ahead of Mississippi State) in RPI is more than 56% greater than the delta between Oregon State and South Carolina, i.e. it would make far more sense for Oregon State to get a host spot and leave one more SEC team out than it would be to leave Oregon State out to include both SEC teams. The delta between Oregon State and Mississippi State is greater than Oregon State and #11 Wake. Just ridiculous! No, D1 Baseball is wrong. I refuse to believe that they can be correct. Baseball America > D1 Baseball. Malarky! Oh noooooo, this post is sure to drag baseba111111s out of the weeds to tell us the SEC is just better because reasons..... |
|
|
|
Post by beaverinsider211 on May 8, 2024 15:21:15 GMT -8
Also need to throw in that D1 Baseball was wrong on 5 host site projections for week 12 in 2023 and also wrong on 4 host site projections in 2022. They are not the end all be all. However, I do agree with the sentiment that we need to win the next two series or make a deep run at the tournament.
|
|
|
|
Post by osubeaver2018 on May 8, 2024 16:45:32 GMT -8
Also need to throw in that D1 Baseball was wrong on 5 host site projections for week 12 in 2023 and also wrong on 4 host site projections in 2022. They are not the end all be all. However, I do agree with the sentiment that we need to win the next two series or make a deep run at the tournament. Win both series and it isn't a question. Lose the UA series and have a poor P12 tourney showing and we leave it in the committee's hands (which doesn't usually bode well for us or west coast teams). But I do agree with the sentiment that D1's projections currently do not make much sense. It's a big shift from what they've said all year but now all of a sudden "computer metrics don't stack up well for OSU" when we still have a top 16 RPI as well. |
|
|
|
Post by joecool on May 8, 2024 19:31:33 GMT -8
Also need to throw in that D1 Baseball was wrong on 5 host site projections for week 12 in 2023 and also wrong on 4 host site projections in 2022. They are not the end all be all. However, I do agree with the sentiment that we need to win the next two series or make a deep run at the tournament. Are there projections based on what the bracket would like today or what they are projecting it to be at the end of the season? If its the former, of course they will have several wrong, things happen in the last few weeks. |
|
|
|
Post by bvrbooster on May 8, 2024 20:14:55 GMT -8
If Oregon State wins out, the Beavs would finish the regular season 42-12. Only one other Beaver team has ever finished the regular season 42-12, 2014 Oregon State. And the 2014 Beavs were handed the #1 overall seed. I cannot believe that a 42-12 Oregon State team would not get a top eight seed with 6+ straight wins. I'm late to this board and someone else has probably already mentioned this. If so, my apologies. But, way, way back in 2014, that grand tradition, the PAC 12 Tournament, didn't yet exist. So, go 42-12, then lose 2 games, giving up 23 or so runs, and hosting might be but a dream. Don't lose sight, however, of the fact that everybody else still has 3 weeks left. It's not just a function of us winning, but them losing will play heavily into it as well. |
|
|
|
Post by chinmusic on May 9, 2024 9:14:06 GMT -8
Today on 5-9-24, D1 Baseball is projecting OSU as the #2 seed in the South Carolina Regional with USC (16th seed), Georgia Tech and High Point.
Wow! That little slump we experienced did more damage in the eyes of KR & Company than I thought it would.
A little reactionary perhaps? W-L record, RPI, Poll rankings . . . . doesn't fit for me.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 9, 2024 10:56:15 GMT -8
Today on 5-9-24, D1 Baseball is projecting OSU as the #2 seed in the South Carolina Regional with USC (16th seed), Georgia Tech and High Point. Wow! That little slump we experienced did more damage in the eyes of KR & Company than I thought it would. A little reactionary perhaps? W-L record, RPI, Poll rankings . . . . doesn't fit for me. It doesn't make any sense other than UCLA is an RPI anchor, and Utah is ahead of Oregon State in conference standings, which is hard to square. Utah's RPI will probably shoot up, though, with the series against Arizona. I will continue to say that I think that D1 Baseball believes that SEC is going to self-sort to an extent. Georgia plays at South Carolina starting tonight and Mississippi State plays at Arkansas starting tomorrow. Those two series are going to go a long way toward determining how next week's projections look. That said, it would be really nice, if Oregon State can pass East Carolina and Indiana State in RPI. Also, I do not know why they focus so heavily on Oregon State's series with UCLA, when Santa Barbara is playing Bakersfield and their awful 282 RPI. That is a big series for both Oregon State and Santa Barbara, because Oregon State played Bakersfield. So, every Bakersfield win destroys Santa Barbara's RPI while also pushing Oregon State's RPI that much higher. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 9, 2024 11:47:58 GMT -8
If Oregon State wins out, the Beavs would finish the regular season 42-12. Only one other Beaver team has ever finished the regular season 42-12, 2014 Oregon State. And the 2014 Beavs were handed the #1 overall seed. I cannot believe that a 42-12 Oregon State team would not get a top eight seed with 6+ straight wins. I'm late to this board and someone else has probably already mentioned this. If so, my apologies. But, way, way back in 2014, that grand tradition, the PAC 12 Tournament, didn't yet exist. So, go 42-12, then lose 2 games, giving up 23 or so runs, and hosting might be but a dream. Don't lose sight, however, of the fact that everybody else still has 3 weeks left. It's not just a function of us winning, but them losing will play heavily into it as well. I had to look it up. Oregon State's RPI was #6 in 2014. 23-7 in conference play and 18-5 in nonconference play, although Oregon State went 2-1 in "nonconference" games against Oregon and Washington. 25-8 against Pac-12 teams and 17-4 against everyone else. #6 in RPI in 2014 with an RPI of .5967. If Oregon State had the exact same RPI of .5967 in 2024, they would be exactly...............#15, right where they are in 2024. That said, with two weeks to play, 2014 Oregon State had a higher RPI, somewhere near where #9 in RPI sits in 2024. That is all to say that 2024 was more top-heavy than 2014. The ACC and SEC have grown increasingly good at gaming the system over the last decade. Before the midweek game in the second-to-last weekend, Oregon State was 20-4 in the Pac-12 and 28-8. They were ranked #2 in the two big polls, the ESPN/USA Today Coaches' Poll and #2 in Baseball America. 2014 Oregon State beat Portland in Keizer and then played 37-11 Washington, a team ranked #11 in the Coaches' Poll and #5 in Baseball America at the time. Oregon State was up a game in the Pac-12 standings, meaning that the series winner would take over first place in the Pac-12 standings. Oregon State lost the opener 4-2 but won the final two games of the series 1-0 and 3-0. That put the Beavers two games clear of the Huskies, needing one win for a Pac-12 Championship and two to win the Championship outright. Virginia lost the final regular season series at Wake, allowing Miami to win the ACC Regular Season Championship. In the polls, Oregon State was basically the unanimous #1 team in the country. The Beavs then played the Ducks midweek in Eugene. Oregon was ranked #15 in the Coaches' Poll but was unranked in Baseball America. The Ducks won 6-2. Oregon State finished by playing USC at Dedeaux, losing the opener 4-2, winning 2-0 on Saturday, and losing the finale 3-1. Washington, though, had lost the first game to UCLA. Oregon State won the Pac-12 Championship by winning the Saturday game against USC 2-0. Oregon State fell to #6 in RPI, and the polls all dropped Oregon State out of the top spot. But the Committee already appears to have locked their picks in, naming the Beavs the #1 team in the country. It should be noted that Oregon State did exactly what you said, i.e. losing the first two game of the week, albeit to Oregon and USC. If the 2014 Tournament had been played in the current format, Oregon State would have been paired with Stanford and UCLA, the Beavs having swept both teams in the regular season. At that time, Oregon State started Dylan Davis midweek, so he would have been the likely starter against UCLA's midweek starter. Andrew Moore or Ben Wetzler would have thrown on Thursday against Stanford (assuming that UCLA won the opener) with the other throwing in the semifinal. Jace Fry would have probably been the Championship Game starter. If Oregon State beat UCLA, they likely would have had Fry start against Stanford with Moore and Wetzler throwing in the Pac-12 Semifinal and Championship Game. Good luck with Oregon State going anything worse than 2-2 with that pitching staff. As the Beavs were Conference Champs, they would have been in the semifinal with a win over Stanford or UCLA. Also, I will continue to say that Casey was very vocal at the time in pushing for a Pac-12 Tournament. I still believe that Casey knew what the hell he was talking about. I also think that had there been a Tournament prior to say 2018, that they would have worked out more of the kinks in the system. Primarily, I do not think that Scottsdale would still be the host site. At least Vegas. Oh well. |
|
|
|
Post by flyfishinbeav on May 9, 2024 15:27:44 GMT -8
I'm late to this board and someone else has probably already mentioned this. If so, my apologies. But, way, way back in 2014, that grand tradition, the PAC 12 Tournament, didn't yet exist. So, go 42-12, then lose 2 games, giving up 23 or so runs, and hosting might be but a dream. Don't lose sight, however, of the fact that everybody else still has 3 weeks left. It's not just a function of us winning, but them losing will play heavily into it as well. I had to look it up. Oregon State's RPI was #6 in 2014. 23-7 in conference play and 18-5 in nonconference play, although Oregon State went 2-1 in "nonconference" games against Oregon and Washington. 25-8 against Pac-12 teams and 17-4 against everyone else. #6 in RPI in 2014 with an RPI of .5967. If Oregon State had the exact same RPI of .5967 in 2024, they would be exactly...............#15, right where they are in 2024. That said, with two weeks to play, 2014 Oregon State had a higher RPI, somewhere near where #9 in RPI sits in 2024. That is all to say that 2024 was more top-heavy than 2014. The ACC and SEC have grown increasingly good at gaming the system over the last decade. Before the midweek game in the second-to-last weekend, Oregon State was 20-4 in the Pac-12 and 28-8. They were ranked #2 in the two big polls, the ESPN/USA Today Coaches' Poll and #2 in Baseball America. 2014 Oregon State beat Portland in Keizer and then played 37-11 Washington, a team ranked #11 in the Coaches' Poll and #5 in Baseball America at the time. Oregon State was up a game in the Pac-12 standings, meaning that the series winner would take over first place in the Pac-12 standings. Oregon State lost the opener 4-2 but won the final two games of the series 1-0 and 3-0. That put the Beavers two games clear of the Huskies, needing one win for a Pac-12 Championship and two to win the Championship outright. Virginia lost the final regular season series at Wake, allowing Miami to win the ACC Regular Season Championship. In the polls, Oregon State was basically the unanimous #1 team in the country. The Beavs then played the Ducks midweek in Eugene. Oregon was ranked #15 in the Coaches' Poll but was unranked in Baseball America. The Ducks won 6-2. Oregon State finished by playing USC at Dedeaux, losing the opener 4-2, winning 2-0 on Saturday, and losing the finale 3-1. Washington, though, had lost the first game to UCLA. Oregon State won the Pac-12 Championship by winning the Saturday game against USC 2-0. Oregon State fell to #6 in RPI, and the polls all dropped Oregon State out of the top spot. But the Committee already appears to have locked their picks in, naming the Beavs the #1 team in the country. It should be noted that Oregon State did exactly what you said, i.e. losing the first two game of the week, albeit to Oregon and USC. If the 2014 Tournament had been played in the current format, Oregon State would have been paired with Stanford and UCLA, the Beavs having swept both teams in the regular season. At that time, Oregon State started Dylan Davis midweek, so he would have been the likely starter against UCLA's midweek starter. Andrew Moore or Ben Wetzler would have thrown on Thursday against Stanford (assuming that UCLA won the opener) with the other throwing in the semifinal. Jace Fry would have probably been the Championship Game starter. If Oregon State beat UCLA, they likely would have had Fry start against Stanford with Moore and Wetzler throwing in the Pac-12 Semifinal and Championship Game. Good luck with Oregon State going anything worse than 2-2 with that pitching staff. As the Beavs were Conference Champs, they would have been in the semifinal with a win over Stanford or UCLA. Also, I will continue to say that Casey was very vocal at the time in pushing for a Pac-12 Tournament. I still believe that Casey knew what the hell he was talking about. I also think that had there been a Tournament prior to say 2018, that they would have worked out more of the kinks in the system. Primarily, I do not think that Scottsdale would still be the host site. At least Vegas. Oh well. Only thing I rememeber about the '14 team was we were kind of slumping at the plate going into post season, and Andy Peterson getting hurt in the dog pile after beating u dub....I remember feeling like the team seemed a bit vulnerable,but we had that outstanding rotation......frickin Irvine. |
|
|
|
Post by grackle on May 9, 2024 17:45:12 GMT -8
At this point it seems to me that our post-season possibilities legitimately range all the way from no-hosting to a national seed. It also strikes me that the forecasts offered pricey sites like BA, D1, etc. aren't worth a whole lot more than those offered by several knowledgable posters here at Benny's House.
All we DO know is that we need to win games, period. And in any case, I like our chances in the post-season. Finally, I guarantee you that no one will want to play us in the postseason -- we have too much raw talent.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 9, 2024 17:53:46 GMT -8
I had to look it up. Oregon State's RPI was #6 in 2014. 23-7 in conference play and 18-5 in nonconference play, although Oregon State went 2-1 in "nonconference" games against Oregon and Washington. 25-8 against Pac-12 teams and 17-4 against everyone else. #6 in RPI in 2014 with an RPI of .5967. If Oregon State had the exact same RPI of .5967 in 2024, they would be exactly...............#15, right where they are in 2024. That said, with two weeks to play, 2014 Oregon State had a higher RPI, somewhere near where #9 in RPI sits in 2024. That is all to say that 2024 was more top-heavy than 2014. The ACC and SEC have grown increasingly good at gaming the system over the last decade. Before the midweek game in the second-to-last weekend, Oregon State was 20-4 in the Pac-12 and 28-8. They were ranked #2 in the two big polls, the ESPN/USA Today Coaches' Poll and #2 in Baseball America. 2014 Oregon State beat Portland in Keizer and then played 37-11 Washington, a team ranked #11 in the Coaches' Poll and #5 in Baseball America at the time. Oregon State was up a game in the Pac-12 standings, meaning that the series winner would take over first place in the Pac-12 standings. Oregon State lost the opener 4-2 but won the final two games of the series 1-0 and 3-0. That put the Beavers two games clear of the Huskies, needing one win for a Pac-12 Championship and two to win the Championship outright. Virginia lost the final regular season series at Wake, allowing Miami to win the ACC Regular Season Championship. In the polls, Oregon State was basically the unanimous #1 team in the country. The Beavs then played the Ducks midweek in Eugene. Oregon was ranked #15 in the Coaches' Poll but was unranked in Baseball America. The Ducks won 6-2. Oregon State finished by playing USC at Dedeaux, losing the opener 4-2, winning 2-0 on Saturday, and losing the finale 3-1. Washington, though, had lost the first game to UCLA. Oregon State won the Pac-12 Championship by winning the Saturday game against USC 2-0. Oregon State fell to #6 in RPI, and the polls all dropped Oregon State out of the top spot. But the Committee already appears to have locked their picks in, naming the Beavs the #1 team in the country. It should be noted that Oregon State did exactly what you said, i.e. losing the first two game of the week, albeit to Oregon and USC. If the 2014 Tournament had been played in the current format, Oregon State would have been paired with Stanford and UCLA, the Beavs having swept both teams in the regular season. At that time, Oregon State started Dylan Davis midweek, so he would have been the likely starter against UCLA's midweek starter. Andrew Moore or Ben Wetzler would have thrown on Thursday against Stanford (assuming that UCLA won the opener) with the other throwing in the semifinal. Jace Fry would have probably been the Championship Game starter. If Oregon State beat UCLA, they likely would have had Fry start against Stanford with Moore and Wetzler throwing in the Pac-12 Semifinal and Championship Game. Good luck with Oregon State going anything worse than 2-2 with that pitching staff. As the Beavs were Conference Champs, they would have been in the semifinal with a win over Stanford or UCLA. Also, I will continue to say that Casey was very vocal at the time in pushing for a Pac-12 Tournament. I still believe that Casey knew what the hell he was talking about. I also think that had there been a Tournament prior to say 2018, that they would have worked out more of the kinks in the system. Primarily, I do not think that Scottsdale would still be the host site. At least Vegas. Oh well. Only thing I rememeber about the '14 team was we were kind of slumping at the plate going into post season, and Andy Peterson getting hurt in the dog pile after beating u dub....I remember feeling like the team seemed a bit vulnerable,but we had that outstanding rotation......frickin Irvine. Peterson was hurt in the dogpile after the 1-0 win over Washington to pull back into the lead of the Pac-12. The offense, which was struggling before, completely disappeared. Oregon State averaged two runs and six hits over the final five games. The Beavs managed to win two games by scoring three runs in one game and two runs in a second. Peterson came back for North Dakota State but went 1/19 over the final five games. The offense scored two runs against North Dakota State in a win and two runs in a 14-2 loss. The offense finally came to live to score and then four but then fell back to Earth with two runs to end the season in a 4-2 loss. The rotation was great, but there was some confusing parts, like when Jace Fry started over Ben Wetzler against Irvine. |
|
|
|
Post by chinmusic on May 9, 2024 23:31:09 GMT -8
D1 Baseball has projected 6 west coast teams will see Regional action
Arizona is a #2 seed in the UCSB Regional with Kansas State and Grand Canyon.
Oregon State is a #2 seed in the South Carolina Regional with Georgia Tech and High Point
Utah is a #3 seed in the Oklahoma Regional with Dallas Baptist and Wright State.
Oregon is a #2 seed in the Clemson Regional with Coastal Carolina and Sacred Heart.
UCI is a #2 seed in the Duke Regional with Florida and Columbia.
San Diego is a #2 seed in the Virginia Regional with Vanderbilt and Army.
|
|
