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Post by rgeorge on May 7, 2024 15:35:09 GMT -8
There are 32 auto bids. If you don't win the Pac12 tourney OSU will not be one.
Of the 32, 8, or more could easily be given a hosting spot. About 2-3 "other" conferences typically get one of the 16. With the low RPIs of multiple SEC & ACC teams that aren't auto bids 16 fills up fast.
A 4-2 finish, at least with championship game appearance prob gets osu a #10-13 seed. Better... would be better!
If I was guessing host spots right now:
SEC 6-7
ACC 3-4
B12 1
Pac12 1-2
Other 2-3
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 7, 2024 17:23:49 GMT -8
There are 32 auto bids. If you don't win the Pac12 tourney OSU will not be one. Of the 32, 8, or more could easily be given a hosting spot. About 2-3 "other" conferences typically get one of the 16. With the low RPIs of multiple SEC & ACC teams that aren't auto bids 16 fills up fast. A 4-2 finish, at least with championship game appearance prob gets osu a #10-13 seed. Better... would be better! If I was guessing host spots right now: SEC 6-7 ACC 3-4 B12 1 Pac12 1-2 Other 2-3 Your SEC number looks too high to me, but your ACC number looks too low. Probably 10 between the two of them, give or take one. The Big 12 probably gets at least one and may get a second one, as well. Four or five spots are probably someone else. East Carolina, Indiana State, Oregon State, and Santa Barbara are probably the four. If there is a fifth, it is probably Dallas Baptist. Anyone with an RPI North of the low 20s, not hosting. |
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Post by richard44 on May 7, 2024 17:41:53 GMT -8
I will say this, if we don’t host, nobody wants to see us as the two seed in their bracket. I’d be pissed to get to host and see a team like us, top 8 most of the year with Omaha level talent, put in my bracket. We really aren’t the type of team that people are going to enjoy seeing.
With that being said, there’s no point in worrying about our final ranking or RPI spot. It is what it is. Let’s just worry about UCLA and take one game at a time. We are basically in playoff mode moving forward. Every game matters, no overlooking anyone.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 7, 2024 17:45:19 GMT -8
If Oregon State wins out, the Beavs would finish the regular season 42-12. Only one other Beaver team has ever finished the regular season 42-12, 2014 Oregon State. And the 2014 Beavs were handed the #1 overall seed. I cannot believe that a 42-12 Oregon State team would not get a top eight seed with 6+ straight wins.
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Post by richard44 on May 7, 2024 20:02:53 GMT -8
I do have one question if someone has the answer. Since the postseason committee has basically moved to just using RPI to rank the postseason hosts over the last few years, why even have rankings? Why not simply use RPI to rank teams (which I don’t want by the way).
It just makes no sense to me to have nationally accredited D1 baseball people/organizations doing rankings, and then the hosts at the end don’t even represent those rankings. It’s weird honestly.
I mean isn’t it odd that one of the most respected rankings done by D1 baseball.com has us ranked at number 7 in the country, but then the same organization doesn’t even have us as a top 16 seed in the playoffs? Am I missing something here? Again, if you are just going to use RPI to rank teams and place them in the postseason, just use that as the universal ranking system all year.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 7, 2024 20:37:01 GMT -8
I do have one question if someone has the answer. Since the postseason committee has basically moved to just using RPI to rank the postseason hosts over the last few years, why even have rankings? Why not simply use RPI to rank teams (which I don’t want by the way). It just makes no sense to me to have nationally accredited D1 baseball people/organizations doing rankings, and then the hosts at the end don’t even represent those rankings. It’s weird honestly. I mean isn’t it odd that one of the most respected rankings done by D1 baseball.com has us ranked at number 7 in the country, but then the same organization doesn’t even have us as a top 16 seed in the playoffs? Am I missing something here? Again, if you are just going to use RPI to rank teams and place them in the postseason, just use that as the universal ranking system all year. they don't just go straight RPI. It's all he of the most important factors but a top 8 RPI doesn't guarantee a superseed. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 7, 2024 20:41:48 GMT -8
I do have one question if someone has the answer. Since the postseason committee has basically moved to just using RPI to rank the postseason hosts over the last few years, why even have rankings? Why not simply use RPI to rank teams (which I don’t want by the way). It just makes no sense to me to have nationally accredited D1 baseball people/organizations doing rankings, and then the hosts at the end don’t even represent those rankings. It’s weird honestly. I mean isn’t it odd that one of the most respected rankings done by D1 baseball.com has us ranked at number 7 in the country, but then the same organization doesn’t even have us as a top 16 seed in the playoffs? Am I missing something here? Again, if you are just going to use RPI to rank teams and place them in the postseason, just use that as the universal ranking system all year. This reminds of: Why did the AP invent the AP Poll? And the answer is that they wanted to sell newspapers. It gives everyone something to talk about. Why have rankings? To get clicks. It gives everyone something to talk about. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 7, 2024 21:05:55 GMT -8
Aaron Fitt on the Joe beaver show doesn’t see a way without a sweep of the final 6 league games and winning the conference tournament. Lottery ticket I listened to the entire Aaron Fitt portion. He basically said that he does not see that Oregon State can host, if they finish third in the Pac-12. And he basically indicated that that was why Oregon State would not be in D1's projection as a host. He then misquoted Boyd's World to come to his conclusion that Oregon State needs to sweep the final six Pac-12 games. Oregon State only needs to go 5-1 to get to the point that he is talking about. Plus, as I have mentioned before, a lot of people do not get how the RPI Needs Report works, and Fitt appears to be one of them. The RPI Needs Report only projects out the team that you are looking at, not the other teams. It does not factor in any regression to the mean whatsoever for the other teams. Warren Nolan's predicted numbers are better (although there are issues there, as well). Warren Nolan says that Oregon State's RPI stays at least 17, if they go 4-2. At that point, you figure that Oregon State likely clinches at least a host spot with an appearance in the Pac-12 Championship Game. As for the sweep and winning the Pac-12 Tournament, he was talking about a "National Seed" there. I am assuming that he was talking about a top eight seed. Fitt couches some here and there, but he basically saying that, if the top eight perform like he expects, which cannot be expected. Someone will have to lose to open up a spot for Oregon State, unless the Beavs basically sweep in. Plus, I will have to look into it more, but Arizona likely is a host with a 5-1 finish. 4-2? I do not know. If Arizona hosts, I think that might increase Oregon State's chances in a stupid committee kind of way, if, and only if, the Beavs pass the Utes in the Pac-12 standings or at least outperforms Utah in the Pac-12 Tournament. I would also note that Fitt mentioned that there was a huge debate about whether Oregon State was a regional host or not, and D1 just came down on the not hosting side of that debate. Fitt says that Oregon State's "metrics" do not look good right now. And that is just that the Beavs have one too many losses. The loss to Wazzu knocked Oregon State down a long ways in RPI, which is unfortunate. But you can look at that 14-11 loss to Utah as a big thorn in Oregon State's side right now, as is a lack of a win in Irvine. Fitt basically indicates that Oregon State is one win or one fewer loss away from being a probable host right now. Just do not have that one win or one fewer loss. Fitt also mentions that D1 is basing their projection on what they expect the Committee to do, because they seemed to rely very heavily on RPI last year. Fitt concluded by saying that Oregon State looks like a regional host and that he expects that Oregon State will still find a way to host. |
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Post by chinmusic on May 7, 2024 23:43:51 GMT -8
It seems to me, it is becoming obvious the writers aren't quite sure what to think about the Beavers.
They recognize the offensive potential and overall team talent but they see the stunning losses where huge leads evaporated in the late innings, and the series losses at USC and Cal were certainly surprising and unexpected.
I think all of that has led to some confusion with the Baseball writers. I think the Beavs will definitely host a Regional but as it sits right now, probably not a Super Regional.
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Post by irimi on May 8, 2024 4:12:23 GMT -8
It seems to me, it is becoming obvious the writers aren't quite sure what to think about the Beavers. They recognize the offensive potential and overall team talent but they see the stunning losses where huge leads evaporated in the late innings, and the series losses at USC and Cal were certainly surprising and unexpected. I think all of that has led to some confusion with the Baseball writers. I think the Beavs will definitely host a Regional but as it sits right now, probably not a Super Regional. They aren’t alone. Beavers have given off more mixed signals than a high school girl. |
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Post by beaverbeliever71 on May 8, 2024 10:53:47 GMT -8
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Post by chinmusic on May 8, 2024 11:27:36 GMT -8
Inconsistency is frequently found. Baseball America has us ranked #11 in their recent poll. They also include us in there "Eight for Omaha" prediction.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on May 8, 2024 11:33:40 GMT -8
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Post by irimi on May 8, 2024 11:48:47 GMT -8
This is the time of year where you gotta treat every game like it's the last one because it very well could be. So fans, drink up and enjoy this team while we have them! Looking forward to a sweep this weekend!
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ftd
Junior
"I think real leaders show up when times are hard." Trent Bray 11/29/2023
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Post by ftd on May 8, 2024 13:13:02 GMT -8
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