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Post by beavaristotle on May 7, 2024 11:29:38 GMT -8
Aaron Fitt on the Joe beaver show doesn’t see a way without a sweep of the final 6 league games and winning the conference tournament. Lottery ticket
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Post by speakthetruth on May 7, 2024 11:51:25 GMT -8
Not sure why anybody would be surprised. With six games left We are in 3rd place in a relatively weak conference.
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Post by rgeorge on May 7, 2024 12:00:25 GMT -8
Since the 2018 season where national seeding went from (8) to (16) the "West" coast has never NOT had a hosting team. I would guess unless there is some upset the winner of the Pac12 tourney will be a host in the Top16. Not sure if there would be two as since the Top16 seedings there has not been another host other than a Pac12 team.
2018 (2) #2 Stanford, #3 OSU 2019 (3) #1 UCLA, #11 Stanford, #16 OSU 2020 2021 (3) #5 Arizona, #9 Stanford, #14 Oregon 2022 (2) #2 Stanford, #3 OSU 2023 (1) #8 Stanford
So it is totally possible there will be only (1) seed in the far west.
FWIW.... Top 16 seeds from other conferences 2023 2022 2021 2019 2018 SEC 8 4 6 6 4 ACC 4 4 1 3 4 B10 0 1 0 0 1 B12 1 2 3 3 2 Other 2 3 3 1 3
to CWS 5/16 4/16 6/16 5/16 6/16 Seeds #1-8 5 2 5 5 4 Seeds #9-16 0 2 1 0 2
FWIW... while only 32.5% make the CWS, National seeds fill 65% of the CWS slots
Since 2018... Total Top 16 hosts / % Total CWS Teams / % SEC (28) / 35% (17) / 42.5% ACC (16) / 20% (8) / 20% Pac12 (11) / 13.75% (6) / 15% B12 (11) / 13.75% (7) / 17.5% B10 (2) / 2.5% (1) / 2.5% Other (12) / 15% (1) / 2.5%
Ok... so today's tutoring schedule was slow... and I could not golf until later!
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Post by osubeaver2018 on May 7, 2024 12:08:47 GMT -8
Aaron Fitt on the Joe beaver show doesn’t see a way without a sweep of the final 6 league games and winning the conference tournament. Lottery ticket Seems odd when after the loss to uo last week they still had us penciled in as the #9 seed on their bracket projection. Going 3-1 since then has dropped us from #9 all the way out of the top 16? Doesn't make a lot of sense.
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Post by NativeBeav on May 7, 2024 12:18:18 GMT -8
Not sure why anybody would be surprised. With six games left We are in 3rd place in a relatively weak conference. Maybe it would help if we didn't get swept by a middle of the road Pac12 team, that is not nationally ranked. Win that series, and there isn't even a discussion.
Having a west team with the arguably best hitter in the country host a regional makes sense - if we can win out, and win the tournament. If rgeorge is correct on the relative weakness of the conference, that should not be that difficult. If we cannot, then the path to Omaha becomes that much tougher!
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Post by Bodhisattva on May 7, 2024 12:23:24 GMT -8
Aaron Fitt on the Joe beaver show doesn’t see a way without a sweep of the final 6 league games and winning the conference tournament. Lottery ticket I believe he said we would have to sweep remaining games to be in contention for a national seed not host at all. He did say currently they see us outside the top 16. I think a sweep of UCLA and winning the series at UA and then win the tournament may get us a top 8 seed. Basically, we need to win the Pac-12 regular season to have a chance at top 8.
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Post by spudbeaver on May 7, 2024 12:28:50 GMT -8
Makes a guy like me wonder why they have the weekly ratings at all.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on May 7, 2024 12:32:44 GMT -8
Makes a guy like me wonder why they have the weekly ratings at all. #7 in their polls, even if you go by RPI we're still #15. Must've been a misinterpretation of what Fitt said or possibly he misspoke. It doesn't make any sense to not consider us a host site right now, regardless of the issues this team has faced on the road a couple of times this year. Hell, D1 last week had Oklahoma State hosting and their RPI is all the way down at 24.
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Post by beavaristotle on May 7, 2024 13:08:45 GMT -8
Makes a guy like me wonder why they have the weekly ratings at all. #7 in their polls, even if you go by RPI we're still #15. Must've been a misinterpretation of what Fitt said or possibly he misspoke. It doesn't make any sense to not consider us a host site right now, regardless of the issues this team has faced on the road a couple of times this year. Hell, D1 last week had Oklahoma State hosting and their RPI is all the way down at 24. what he said was they are posting an article on their website tomorrow with their hosting predictions and they have the beavers on the outside looking in
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 7, 2024 13:59:21 GMT -8
He's basically just saying he doesn't think we win both the remaining series. If we don't we shouldn't host.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 7, 2024 14:23:00 GMT -8
He's basically just saying he doesn't think we win both the remaining series. If we don't we shouldn't host. Yea, I think most will pick us to lose the ARZ series. We lose that series we are likely RPI in the 20's and borderline top 15 ranked
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 7, 2024 14:36:45 GMT -8
Oregon State was the #9 seed in both Baseball America and D1 Baseball projections as of last Wednesday and have gone 3-1 on the road since.
College Sports Madness has Oregon State as the #12 overall seed as of yesterday.
Oregon State might not win enough to continued to be penciled in as a regional host, but no one should be not placing the Beavs in a Regional other than a Corvallis Regional.
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Post by hottubbeaver on May 7, 2024 14:49:37 GMT -8
In football they perform mental gymnastics accounting for injuries come "playoff" selection time. We have a solid record as is, have played our way to staying ranked inside the top 10, and done so minus 3 starters (not including pitchers) absent the lineup for much of that record.
We're a deeper and better team with those guys back and that should be given some consideration.
Another factor I haven't seen mentioned, it's most folks view these selections have some bias to them in favor or setting up the bracket to produce the biggest audiences for the CWS.. I would think from that standpoint you would want to have this years potential #1 mlb pick in the field of 8.
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Post by jayvinson on May 7, 2024 15:17:09 GMT -8
My uneducated guess is that Aaron misunderstood the question. I think his response was probably as to the probability of us being top 8 (national seed) and hosting a Super Regional. Barring a collapse, top 16 is a lock!
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Post by beavaristotle on May 7, 2024 15:23:28 GMT -8
My uneducated guess is that Aaron misunderstood the question. I think his response was probably as to the probability of us being top 8 (national seed) and hosting a Super Regional. Barring a collapse, top 16 is a lock! don’t think he misunderstood, when he said it , Parker came back with “you mean not hosting at all”to which he replied that’s how they see it. Beavers could go on a winning streak and make the conversation pointless or not and reinforce their thinking
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