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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 5, 2024 18:43:48 GMT -8
We have 7 games left. 3 against the worst team in the PAC, 1 against a team we RPI 140 and 3 against the current leader of the conference. If we can't go 6-1 in that span we should not host a super imo. The only reason we would host a super with more than 13 loses is because they need a west coast host.
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ftd
Junior
"I think real leaders show up when times are hard." Trent Bray 11/29/2023
Posts: 2,517
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Post by ftd on May 5, 2024 18:52:17 GMT -8
We have 7 games left. 3 against the worst team in the PAC, 1 against a team we RPI 140 and 3 against the current leader of the conference. If we can't go 6-1 in that span we should not host a super imo. The only reason we would host a super with more than 13 loses is because they need a west coast host. Having a good rep and a great fanbase will help our cause as well..but agreed we need to beat Gonzaga, sweep UCLA and win the UA series...hopefully that gives us regular season conference and then we win the P12 tourney as well |
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Post by beaverbeliever71 on May 5, 2024 19:08:07 GMT -8
Yes, it looks like an Omaha team, if the team does not have to leave Corvallis. 21-2 in Corvallis. 10 of 12 losses have been on the road. Only one Oregon State team has ever won a road Regional and that was 2007. No Oregon State team has ever won a road Super Regional, so 2006 and 2007 did not look like Omaha teams, until they got the help that they needed to become Omaha teams. 2011 did not get that help. 2014 and 2019 lost in Corvallis. Ok, as it currently sits, we are not going to be top 8 seed OSU could still host a Super Regional even if not top 8 national seed. As long as they are Top 16 national seed they would host over any unseeded team that won a regional. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 5, 2024 20:09:58 GMT -8
Ok, as it currently sits, we are not going to be top 8 seed OSU could still host a Super Regional even if not top 8 national seed. As long as they are Top 16 national seed they would host over any unseeded team that won a regional. Yea, I understand that. Oral Roberts knows all about that s%#t |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 5, 2024 20:59:14 GMT -8
Ok, as it currently sits, we are not going to be top 8 seed OSU could still host a Super Regional even if not top 8 national seed. As long as they are Top 16 national seed they would host over any unseeded team that won a regional. 2006 Oregon State. The Beavs hosted the Cardinal, because Stanford upset #3 National Seed Texas. 2011 was the only year that Oregon State did not host a Super, having to travel to #6 National Seed Vandy. That same year, unseeded Cal upset #8 National Seed Rice in the Houston Regional to set up a Santa Clara Super Regional (Evans Diamond was not upgraded to be able to host a Regional until 2013), which Cal won over Dallas Baptist. The Bears went 1-2 in Omaha, losing twice to #1 National Seed Virginia. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 6, 2024 0:07:53 GMT -8
A two to one road series win is not the end of the world. If you told me at the beginning of the year that we take two of three from WSU on the road, I would have taken it. This is where the sweep at Cal (should have at least won one in that series), the semi sweep at USC (could have definitely won game one, and didn’t get a shot at a game three), and the blown 9 run game against Utah hurt (should have never lost with a 9 run lead). You put yourself in a lot more pressure situations late in the season, and a lot more must win games, with losses like that throughout the season. Winning two of three to WSU isn’t the problem, it was some of the missed opportunities earlier in the season that make a 2-1 series win not as impactful. Now, we can go out and lose today and continue to make things even harder for us in the long run. With the way we have played as of late, that could happen. If we show up and take care of business today and win the road series, you won’t hear any complaints from me. Top that off with the wasted outs. Folks on here, from early on have poo poo'd the number of K's. It is actually an outrageous amount and totally effects the offensive output and pressure you place on opposing defenses. The 2024 season will be the 4th in a row of 500+ Ks (currently we are around 434, so it would be a dramatic change not to reach 500!?). No OSU team I can find in the archives (back to 2010) has ever reached 500. The 2019 team had 480 vs 303 BB in 57 games. Since... 2020 no season 2021 61 games... 512 K... 282 BB 2022 66 games... 563 K... 389 BB 2023 61 games... 543 K... 373 BB 2024 47 games... 440 K... 304 BB In comparison to the most recent Omaha teams: 2017 62 games... 376 K... 302 BB 2018 68 games... 438 K... 336 BB The level of play at 13-9 in Pac12 play is certainly not attributed to ONE aspect. Pitching, defense, and offense have all been inconsistent. But when you are only +1.64 runs per game (+36 in 22 games) in conference play at least two of the areas need to solidify. 2021-2023 Oregon State are the only teams that have ever struck out more than 500. 2019 is fourth-highest with 480. 2022 set the all-time record in walks. 2023 is second all-time. I believe that 338 BBs in a season would be third-most. Oregon State is now +40 in 23 games. That is +1.74 runs/game. That may not sound that great, but it is second in the Pac-12. Arizona is first at +58 in 24 games, +2.42 runs/game. Third place is telling, Utah. Utah's run differential is +14 in 24 games, +0.58 runs/game. The difference between Arizona and Oregon State and Oregon State and Utah are nearly double. Pac-12 teams by run differential: Arizona +58
Oregon State +40
Utah +14
Arizona State +13
Oregon +6
Cal +2
USC -5
Stanford -8
Wazzu -33
Washington -34
UCLA -53
Expected winning percentage by runs scored and allowed, using the best MLB analytical model that I could find:
Arizona .7022 (+.0061 in real life)
Oregon State .6305 (-.0218 in real life)
Utah .5435 (+.0398 in real life)
Arizona State .5302 (-.0117 in real life)
Oregon .5216 (+.0617 in real life)
Cal .5057 (+.0128 in real life)
USC .4832 (+.0385 in real life)
Stanford .4753 (-.0170 in real life)
Washington .4059 (-.0284 in real life)
Wazzu .3914 (-.0581 in real life)
UCLA .3275 (-.0775 in real life)
UCLA is 2-7 in Pac-12 games decided by fewer than three runs. Wazzu is 5-8. Washington is 3-6.
Oregon State is 1-5 in Pac-12 games decided by one run, which is ridiculously bad for a "good" team.
To me, the issue screams coaching. The runs are there. The pitching is there. The coaches just have not put everything together yet. Too many tight games are being decided the wrong way. That said, it is heartening that Oregon State's one win was on Friday and that the Beavs were able to come back to turn an otherwise uncompetitive game into a one-run game. One is a great trend to develop and the second is the most anomalous of the one-run games.
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Post by irimi on May 6, 2024 4:40:49 GMT -8
I don't know what changed in the ninth inning because I stopped watching after the 5th inning. The problem I saw early in the game, was the approach at the plate. It hasn't changed in my opinion up to this point. Every player seems to be at the plate to first try to get a walk before even thinking about swinging the bat. There are a few exceptions obviously. In the pregame, Mitch talked about how WSU hitters were more aggressive while we were watching pitches. But within the same conversation he said that our hitters have to go up to bat determined to get on base, even by taking a hbp or working the walk. To my stupid ears, it sounded like he was both advocating being aggressive and being aggressive in order to get a walk. But whatever he told them, it worked. Finally. |
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Post by jayvinson on May 6, 2024 6:04:43 GMT -8
Hitting also improves when one is batting against the dregs of the bullpen.
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