ftd
Junior
"I think real leaders show up when times are hard." Trent Bray 11/29/2023
Posts: 2,517
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Post by ftd on Apr 15, 2024 6:18:05 GMT -8
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 15, 2024 6:29:19 GMT -8
Ah yeah gotta keep 4 SEC teams in the top 5.
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Post by messi on Apr 15, 2024 6:44:59 GMT -8
Sweeping the worst team in the SEC and losing to Samford mid-week must be better than taking 2-of-3 against a mid-level Pac-12 team and winning a mid-week against Portland. |
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Post by richard44 on Apr 15, 2024 7:15:04 GMT -8
I’m fine with the ranking. Let’s just hold steady in the top 8 and keep winning series/mid week games. Top 5 seems pretty accurate to me at this point.
Next two weeks are really big for the Beavs. We play at Cal this weekend in a series they really need to win. They always play us tough, and in my opinion, it’s not one we can drop either and expect to stay in the top 8. Especially considering the toughest part of our schedule is still to come. Then the following weekend we will play Oregon who likely will be top 15 by then.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 15, 2024 8:31:49 GMT -8
Sweeping the worst team in the SEC and losing to Samford mid-week must be better than taking 2-of-3 against a mid-level Pac-12 team and winning a mid-week against Portland. They are setting the SEC up for 4 super hosts. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 15, 2024 8:53:14 GMT -8
How is Hole #16?
They went 3-2 over the week and their RPI is #63.....I get they are 2nd in Pac 12 standings, but they are a borderline top 25 team at best.
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2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,837 
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Apr 15, 2024 11:13:08 GMT -8
I didn't realize this until I read the Oregonian headline in my newsfeed: "Jacob Kmatz, clutch hitting carry Oregon State baseball to its first series win over Stanford in 6 years" Either we've not played Stanford in a while or they've really had our number in the recent past, but it's a great day to be a Beaver, and I'm excited to see how the rest of this season plays out......and here I was about to cancel my Sling subscription! Go Beavers! |
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Post by rgeorge on Apr 15, 2024 11:14:20 GMT -8
Sweeping the worst team in the SEC and losing to Samford mid-week must be better than taking 2-of-3 against a mid-level Pac-12 team and winning a mid-week against Portland. Well, it is if you go by the #s used: Kentucky... L @ #73, Sweep @ #39 OSU... W vs #59, WWL vs #129 Coaches Poll has OSU at #4, Kentucky at #5. No matter what we think... the numbers show 24 of OSU's wins are Q3/Q4 (11-0/13-1)... 5-4 vs Q1/Q2 (5-2/0-2) and the rest of the schedule does not help. Initial bias or not it is what it is, and what is used. For example, Kentucky has (19) Q1/Q2 wins... (12-0/7-4) with only 12 total game vs Q3/Q4 (3-0/8-1). OSU will not even play (19) Q1/Q2 games before the post season begins. Where as at this moment the remaining schedules: Kentucky OSU 1 vs #85 2 @ #198 1 @ #85 3 @ #77 3 vs #7 1 vs #59 3 @ #15 1 vs #59 3 vs #6 3 vs #63 1 @ #33 1 @ #63 3 at #43 3 @ #172 1 vs #139 1 @ #125 3 vs #17 3 vs #167 3 @ #28 Most of the SEC and ACC schedules look similar to UK's. So, OSU needs to win.. no stubbed toes vs this schedule as they are behind the 8-ball come #s time and seeding. It was a bad year for the Pac12 to be so down! Right now they are about #13 in RPI overall and have the 2nd worst SOS in that Top 20. There are about (10) 0ther teams with 27+ wins and better SOS and RPI than OSU... (8) are ACC/SEC teams. So, being a Top 8 seed will depend on handling a weak schedule and NOT having a poor Pac12 tourney. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 15, 2024 11:42:37 GMT -8
Sweeping the worst team in the SEC and losing to Samford mid-week must be better than taking 2-of-3 against a mid-level Pac-12 team and winning a mid-week against Portland. Kentucky's sweep coupled with Arkansas losing the Saturday and Sunday games in Tuscaloosa catapults Kentucky to the top of the SEC standings. Kentucky has a better overall record and a better strength of schedule than Oregon State and has a better win-loss record in a more difficult conference. Kentucky swept the worst team in the SEC standings, Auburn, but it was at Auburn. Kentucky is now on a ten-game winning streak against SEC opponents. And the Wildcats only loss against SEC opponents this year was a one-run loss in Missouri. Stanford is sixth in Pac-12 standings but is eighth in RPI. Stanford's RPI is lower than both Auburn and Samford. I see this as more of an acknowledgement of how good Kentucky has been this year. It is tough to justify the #1 SEC team being outside of the top five, when they have clearly played like a top five team to date. Having said all of that, I would note that one of Kentucky's four nonconference losses was a 6-4 loss in Friday game against Wazzu in Round Rock. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 15, 2024 11:55:21 GMT -8
How is Hole #16? They went 3-2 over the week and their RPI is #63.....I get they are 2nd in Pac 12 standings, but they are a borderline top 25 team at best. Fun fact: Arizona has the nation's longest winning streak at 11 games. Arizona swept UCLA in Tucson, Cal at Evans Diamond, and Louisiana Tech in Tucson. Arizona also has a win over New Mexico in Tucson and Stanford in a midweek game at Sunken Diamond. Arizona's 11-game winning streak is the Wildcats' longest, since Arizona won 11 straight on their way to a National Championship in 2012. Arizona clearly is a top 25 team. Arizona's last series loss? In Eugene against Oregon. Oregon has won six consecutive weekend series and only has dropped one weekend series all year. And on top of that, Oregon is second in the Pac-12, a half-game back of the current conference leader, Oregon State. Having said all of that, Oregon is not a top 16 team at this point. That seems silly. Clearly in but not a Regional Host. |
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Apr 15, 2024 17:24:24 GMT -8
Sweeping the worst team in the SEC and losing to Samford mid-week must be better than taking 2-of-3 against a mid-level Pac-12 team and winning a mid-week against Portland. Well, it is if you go by the #s used: Kentucky... L @ #73, Sweep @ #39 OSU... W vs #59, WWL vs #129 Coaches Poll has OSU at #4, Kentucky at #5. No matter what we think... the numbers show 24 of OSU's wins are Q3/Q4 (11-0/13-1)... 5-4 vs Q1/Q2 (5-2/0-2) and the rest of the schedule does not help. Initial bias or not it is what it is, and what is used. For example, Kentucky has (19) Q1/Q2 wins... (12-0/7-4) with only 12 total game vs Q3/Q4 (3-0/8-1). OSU will not even play (19) Q1/Q2 games before the post season begins. Where as at this moment the remaining schedules: Kentucky OSU 1 vs #85 2 @ #198 1 @ #85 3 @ #77 3 vs #7 1 vs #59 3 @ #15 1 vs #59 3 vs #6 3 vs #63 1 @ #33 1 @ #63 3 at #43 3 @ #172 1 vs #139 1 @ #125 3 vs #17 3 vs #167 3 @ #28 Most of the SEC and ACC schedules look similar to UK's. So, OSU needs to win.. no stubbed toes vs this schedule as they are behind the 8-ball come #s time and seeding. It was a bad year for the Pac12 to be so down! Right now they are about #13 in RPI overall and have the 2nd worst SOS in that Top 20. There are about (10) 0ther teams with 27+ wins and better SOS and RPI than OSU... (8) are ACC/SEC teams. So, being a Top 8 seed will depend on handling a weak schedule and NOT having a poor Pac12 tourney. That Q4 loss is the most recent loss to Stanford too is it not? I know winning the series was nice there but that bullpen collapse lost us 3 spots in the RPI I believe (at least according to Warren-Nolan, not sure if D1's/NCAA RPI is much different). @ua is really the only chance we have left to boost our RPI before post-season play. That series scares me as well in May, hot weather, ball will be flying, and we already have pitching troubles while one of our better pitchers can be prone to a long ball or 3 on a bad day. The series against oregon will be nice at least for the "eye test" if we can win/sweep that series as well, but Sundays make me shudder thinking about our pitching so expecting any sweeps at this point is also asking a lot.
The rest will be up to, like you said, taking care of the rest of the weak Pac-12 which at the current pace we're on.... I'm hard pressed to believe we stay in the top 8 unless the committee really wants a west coast top 8 seed. Many issues are fixable (free passes/errors), but have just been issues all season long so I have a hard time believing they'll magically change now.
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Post by rgeorge on Apr 15, 2024 18:16:15 GMT -8
Well, it is if you go by the #s used: Kentucky... L @ #73, Sweep @ #39 OSU... W vs #59, WWL vs #129 Coaches Poll has OSU at #4, Kentucky at #5. No matter what we think... the numbers show 24 of OSU's wins are Q3/Q4 (11-0/13-1)... 5-4 vs Q1/Q2 (5-2/0-2) and the rest of the schedule does not help. Initial bias or not it is what it is, and what is used. For example, Kentucky has (19) Q1/Q2 wins... (12-0/7-4) with only 12 total game vs Q3/Q4 (3-0/8-1). OSU will not even play (19) Q1/Q2 games before the post season begins. Where as at this moment the remaining schedules: Kentucky OSU 1 vs #85 2 @ #198 1 @ #85 3 @ #77 3 vs #7 1 vs #59 3 @ #15 1 vs #59 3 vs #6 3 vs #63 1 @ #33 1 @ #63 3 at #43 3 @ #172 1 vs #139 1 @ #125 3 vs #17 3 vs #167 3 @ #28 Most of the SEC and ACC schedules look similar to UK's. So, OSU needs to win.. no stubbed toes vs this schedule as they are behind the 8-ball come #s time and seeding. It was a bad year for the Pac12 to be so down! Right now they are about #13 in RPI overall and have the 2nd worst SOS in that Top 20. There are about (10) 0ther teams with 27+ wins and better SOS and RPI than OSU... (8) are ACC/SEC teams. So, being a Top 8 seed will depend on handling a weak schedule and NOT having a poor Pac12 tourney. That Q4 loss is the most recent loss to Stanford too is it not? I know winning the series was nice there but that bullpen collapse lost us 3 spots in the RPI I believe (at least according to Warren-Nolan, not sure if D1's/NCAA RPI is much different). @ua is really the only chance we have left to boost our RPI before post-season play. That series scares me as well in May, hot weather, ball will be flying, and we already have pitching troubles while one of our better pitchers can be prone to a long ball or 3 on a bad day. The series against oregon will be nice at least for the "eye test" if we can win/sweep that series as well, but Sundays make me shudder thinking about our pitching so expecting any sweeps at this point is also asking a lot.
The rest will be up to, like you said, taking care of the rest of the weak Pac-12 which at the current pace we're on.... I'm hard pressed to believe we stay in the top 8 unless the committee really wants a west coast top 8 seed. Many issues are fixable (free passes/errors), but have just been issues all season long so I have a hard time believing they'll magically change now.
@ Zona is always worrisome. Pen inconsistencies is troubling, but fielding on that fast, rock hard surface is tough. Our D is not Omaha worthy when you consider the schedule. Our Ks at the plate, overall pitching must really solidify to overcome the defensive shortcomings. Just overall OSU isn't playing like a top 8 seed. The wins are great, but a bit deceiving too. |
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Post by bvrbooster on Apr 15, 2024 18:55:54 GMT -8
I’m fine with the ranking. Let’s just hold steady in the top 8 and keep winning series/mid week games. Top 5 seems pretty accurate to me at this point. Next two weeks are really big for the Beavs. We play at Cal this weekend in a series they really need to win. They always play us tough, and in my opinion, it’s not one we can drop either and expect to stay in the top 8. Especially considering the toughest part of our schedule is still to come. Then the following weekend we will play Oregon who likely will be top 15 by then. Right you are. Finish in the top 8 and you host all the way to Omaha. Just keep winning and let others stumble.Move up through attrition if you can, but don't put yourself in a position to be moved down. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 15, 2024 20:36:45 GMT -8
That Q4 loss is the most recent loss to Stanford too is it not? I know winning the series was nice there but that bullpen collapse lost us 3 spots in the RPI I believe (at least according to Warren-Nolan, not sure if D1's/NCAA RPI is much different). @ua is really the only chance we have left to boost our RPI before post-season play. That series scares me as well in May, hot weather, ball will be flying, and we already have pitching troubles while one of our better pitchers can be prone to a long ball or 3 on a bad day. The series against oregon will be nice at least for the "eye test" if we can win/sweep that series as well, but Sundays make me shudder thinking about our pitching so expecting any sweeps at this point is also asking a lot.
The rest will be up to, like you said, taking care of the rest of the weak Pac-12 which at the current pace we're on.... I'm hard pressed to believe we stay in the top 8 unless the committee really wants a west coast top 8 seed. Many issues are fixable (free passes/errors), but have just been issues all season long so I have a hard time believing they'll magically change now.
@ Zona is always worrisome. Pen inconsistencies is troubling, but fielding on that fast, rock hard surface is tough. Our D is not Omaha worthy when you consider the schedule. Our Ks at the plate, overall pitching must really solidify to overcome the defensive shortcomings. Just overall OSU isn't playing like a top 8 seed. The wins are great, but a bit deceiving too. Oregon State has won 12-straight and nine-straight games and those were each around the 4-3 "slide" in the middle of the season. And the loss before that was to a top eight seed. And five straight wins before that. The Beavs did not play like a top 8 seed on Sunday but have in 2024 by and large. There is stuff to clean up, but 2024 is the second-best Oregon State team of all time to this point in the season. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 15, 2024 20:50:47 GMT -8
@ Zona is always worrisome. Pen inconsistencies is troubling, but fielding on that fast, rock hard surface is tough. Our D is not Omaha worthy when you consider the schedule. Our Ks at the plate, overall pitching must really solidify to overcome the defensive shortcomings. Just overall OSU isn't playing like a top 8 seed. The wins are great, but a bit deceiving too. Oregon State has won 12-straight and nine-straight games and those were each around the 4-3 "slide" in the middle of the season. And the loss before that was to a top eight seed. And five straight wins before that. The Beavs did not play like a top 8 seed on Sunday but have in 2024 by and large. There is stuff to clean up, but 2024 is the second-best Oregon State team of all time to this point in the season. Just to continue this, Oregon State's 12-game winning streak is the Beavs' longest since Oregon State won 13 straight in 2018. |
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