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Post by irimi on Apr 6, 2024 20:35:04 GMT -8
One of the best reasons to keep Bazzana at leadoff is simply that he will see more at bats through the course of the game than pretty much any other player. Bazzana really has insane numbers all across the board. In 108 at bats, he has struck out only 12 times. He has more home runs than strikeouts! A guy like that you want hitting as often as possible.
Even when Micah comes back, I don't think you switch the lineup at all. Having Bazzana at the top of the lineup sets a tone to the game.
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Post by 56chevy on Apr 6, 2024 21:14:16 GMT -8
I keep him at leadoff because he is seeing some pitches to open the game that he may not see hitting anywhere else in the lineup. A pitchers mindset going into a game is to establish "Strike one", Bazanna completely screws that up. They are being put on the defensive before the game even starts. I love it! Whatever we theoretically gain, it is more than offset because we lose the psychological advantage we get from moving him out of leadoff.
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Post by irimi on Apr 7, 2024 7:23:34 GMT -8
I keep him at leadoff because he is seeing some pitches to open the game that he may not see hitting anywhere else in the lineup. A pitchers mindset going into a game is to establish "Strike one", Bazanna completely screws that up. They are being put on the defensive before the game even starts. I love it! Whatever we theoretically gain, it is more than offset because we lose the psychological advantage we get from moving him out of leadoff. Hadn't thought about it from the pitcher’s viewpoint. Yeah, that’s a lot of pressure! I like it. |
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Post by jayvinson on Apr 7, 2024 8:12:35 GMT -8
Number 1 job of the lead off hitter is to get on base. No one does it better
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nuclearbeaver
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 7, 2024 9:19:33 GMT -8
Number 1 job of the lead off hitter is to get on base. No one does it better He kinda sucks at it. He keeps touching all 4 bases without stopping. |
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Post by RenoBeaver on Apr 7, 2024 9:58:08 GMT -8
He has 6 lead off HRs?
If that's the case he is still tied for the lead in RBI...so it's not just an effective move having him bat lead off. It's paying dividends beyond first inning.
Don't fix what ain't broke
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 7, 2024 10:52:28 GMT -8
You guys have points. I just disagree with the concept of having Bazzana bat first. He should be batting second or fourth.
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Post by chinmusic on Apr 7, 2024 14:43:09 GMT -8
Why?
You obviously have reasoned this.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 7, 2024 14:58:41 GMT -8
Why? You obviously have reasoned this. Short answer: Let's say you leadoff with Krieg. Krieg has a .490 OBP. 49% of the time, he is on-board in front of Bazzana. 17 homers. 8+ extra runs that Oregon State's opponents do not have to contend with. If pitchers are rattled with Bazzana coming up first, they are even more rattled with Krieg on board and pitching from the stretch. In my opinion, it's stupid baseball to leadoff with Bazzana. I disagree with the approach. It's working. But it can always work better. |
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Post by chinmusic on Apr 7, 2024 22:56:51 GMT -8
From your answer, I assume you like the idea of having Krieg leadoff to set the table for Bazzana's next blast. Krieg has done a good job of reaching base with his 21 hits and 30 free passes. A power hitter with a .490 OBP is a plus in any lineup. I don't agree but I see your reasoning. Lets look at some numbers.
My thinking is to get my leadoff man on base as often as possible. That is the way to begin an inning. Since Bazz is the most productive offensive weapon I have, he leads off. Let me offer a comparison.
OB% is a compelling stat. Bazzana reaches base .601, Krieg reaches at .490.
Bazzana has 52 hits in 113 AB's, Krieg has 21 hits in 73 AB's.
Bazzana's BA is .460, Krieg is hitting .288
Bazzana has drawn 37 BB and 3 HBP (40 passes), Krieg has drawn 21 BB and 9 HBP (30 passes).
Bazzana walks 26.1% of his PA's, Krieg 29.1%. Both draw a high % of free passes.
I want speed in the leadoff position. I want the ability to steal a base and to increase my odds of avoiding a DP or force out. Bazz stole 36 bases last year and is 8/11 this year. So far, Krieg doesn't steal.
I want to be able to execute a bunt from the leadoff position. Krieg's calling card is his HR power.
Most importantly, Bazzana has struck out 13 times in 113 at bats. Krieg has struck out 34 times in 73 at bats.
Bazzana's K rate is 11.5%, Krieg's is 46.4%.
I don't want my leadoff hitter striking out more than 15%, much less 46% which is double the MLB acceptable 20-22%. Starting the game half the time with a "whiff" just isn't what I'm looking for.
Nothing wrong with your reasoning, I just think you have the wrong guy. Would you consider McDowell?
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nuclearbeaver
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 8, 2024 6:16:11 GMT -8
I think the batting order is fine with MMD and Baz being mostly interchangable. We probably score more runs with MMD leading off but who knows how that affects Baz mentality or opposing pitchers. I wouldn't be surprised if pitchers relax a bit after Baz and that helps MMD a bit. Either way with those two having OBP north of 500 we can't ring our hands too much.
To me the more interesting question is what do you do when all the starters are back. To me the locks, outside of dry spells, in the order are
Baz
MMD
Turley
Guerra
Caraway
Weber/Smith
Hainline (over 300 now)
To me that leaves Kasper, Macias and Krieg sharing OF and DH slots. I actually prefer Krieg at first to Guerra but they both strike out a lot. Macias (.381) is the best defender but is almost a full point behind Krieg (.490) and Kasper (.469) at OB% To confuse it more Macias is the most versatile with bunts, steals and switching hitting all an option.
Glad I don't have to figure it out.
Crazy stat of the day, we have 12 players with OBP over 400.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 8, 2024 13:55:57 GMT -8
From your answer, I assume you like the idea of having Krieg leadoff to set the table for Bazzana's next blast. Krieg has done a good job of reaching base with his 21 hits and 30 free passes. A power hitter with a .490 OBP is a plus in any lineup. I don't agree but I see your reasoning. Lets look at some numbers. My thinking is to get my leadoff man on base as often as possible. That is the way to begin an inning. Since Bazz is the most productive offensive weapon I have, he leads off. Let me offer a comparison. OB% is a compelling stat. Bazzana reaches base .601, Krieg reaches at .490. Bazzana has 52 hits in 113 AB's, Krieg has 21 hits in 73 AB's. Bazzana's BA is .460, Krieg is hitting .288 Bazzana has drawn 37 BB and 3 HBP (40 passes), Krieg has drawn 21 BB and 9 HBP (30 passes). Bazzana walks 26.1% of his PA's, Krieg 29.1%. Both draw a high % of free passes. I want speed in the leadoff position. I want the ability to steal a base and to increase my odds of avoiding a DP or force out. Bazz stole 36 bases last year and is 8/11 this year. So far, Krieg doesn't steal. I want to be able to execute a bunt from the leadoff position. Krieg's calling card is his HR power. Most importantly, Bazzana has struck out 13 times in 113 at bats. Krieg has struck out 34 times in 73 at bats. Bazzana's K rate is 11.5%, Krieg's is 46.4%. I don't want my leadoff hitter striking out more than 15%, much less 46% which is double the MLB acceptable 20-22%. Starting the game half the time with a "whiff" just isn't what I'm looking for. Nothing wrong with your reasoning, I just think you have the wrong guy. Would you consider McDowell? McDowell is the guy once he returns. For the rest of your post, though: A lot of people get leadoff hitters backwards, and it is because of uneducated thinking on the subject for decades. Unlike almost every other position in the batting order, for a leadoff hitter the why of outs matters a lot less than whether they occur or not. It actually hurts the team more to have a high strikeout guy like Krieg (leads the team in strikeouts) at any other position other than leadoff. That is to say, strikeouts harm the leadoff hitter less than any other position in the order. You squander a lot of Bazzana's outs, which could be productive, by batting him first. And you make each of Krieg's strikeouts that much more negatively impactful. Bunting is rarely a positive for the first two hitters, unless you can catch the defense in a bad alignment. If you wanted to overvalue speed, Guerra or Peterson may be the play at leadoff. |
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Post by beaver1989 on Apr 8, 2024 14:09:07 GMT -8
Wilky,
You've an interesting subject going, if you have the time throw a couple of your lineups out there.(I'd like to take a look)
Right now I'm not onboard with what you're saying, but you did eventually get me to support a Pac12 baseball tournament after years of opposition.(still do.......it's the last year😀)
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Post by jayvinson on Apr 8, 2024 14:17:06 GMT -8
26-4
If it ain't broke, don't fix it
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 8, 2024 15:00:51 GMT -8
Wilky, You've an interesting subject going, if you have the time throw a couple of your lineups out there.(I'd like to take a look) Right now I'm not onboard with what you're saying, but you did eventually get me to support a Pac12 baseball tournament after years of opposition.(still do.......it's the last year😀) I do not have a full lineup really, and I am not 100% tied to anything. Having said that, setting up the first four hitters correctly is the most important part of the lineup. After that, the hardest thing to do is to try and make sure that someone links up with the top of the order correctly. And, frankly, batting Bazzana first makes the bottom of the order more problematic than batting Bazzana second. The top of the order looks wrong to me. Bazzana is a two, not a one (too much power), and Turley is a four, not a two. The one is tough, because McDowell should be the one, and he is hurt. The three best choices are Guerra, Krieg, and Peterson. Weber is putting up one-type numbers, but I would personally never bat a catcher first in a home game, because of the equipment. Also, Weber is painfully slow. And as much as I like to follow the numbers in all of this, I personally like to bury the truly slow players in the very middle (5-6-7) of the lineup, where they cause the fewest lineup-related baserunning issues. And Guerra is hitting/running too well to really pull off the one correctly, because he is doubling too often, which means that Bazzana would be getting worse pitches to hit and not better, like we are shooting for. Krieg and Peterson are probably the best choices for table setters with arguments to be made for both. Both battle and tend to see a lot of pitches. Start with guys who tend to do an excellent job at stressing pitchers. If you fail to get the leadoff hitter, Bazzana will be seeing even better pitches. If you succeed at getting the leadoff hitter, you are immediately put into an even more stressful situation. I personally like Macias as a three, because he can bunt in case the leadoff hitter scores or in case you have a first and second situation. And if no one is on, I have enough faith in Macias to battle to try and get Turley up with a runner on. Turley cleans up. Protect Turley with the best of Guerra/Hainline/Krieg/Peterson/Weber down until at most one of those five are left. If you are really going to hit Bazzana 1-2, you really have to move up Weber to avoid Bazzana and Turley hitting while Weber is on base. Painfully slow. Moving Bazzana and Turley down helps to solve that problem. The last two spots depend on who you selected to leadoff. You can tweak that some, but that is the general way that I see it. 26-4 is a great counterpoint. I just tend to think that there is no problem trying to get the lineup closer to perfection rather than just trusting that the current lineup will be able to produce nine runs a game at will. |
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