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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Feb 25, 2024 22:36:18 GMT -8
Seeing a lot of hot takes on the internet after yesterdays game that our pitching is bad and were giving up too many free bases. While overall this is true I think there is more to the story. First off our ERA through 5 games is 2.0 so that means our overall defense has been pretty effective. Our WHIP is 1.56 which also quite good. Walks: 30 total HBP: 4 total The Majority of our free bases come from Reynolds (7 BB), Kmatz (4 BB), Lattery (4BB), Hunter (2 BB, 2 HBP) Scott (2BB, 1 HBP) and Furguson (3 BB). Those guys make up 16.6 innings (37%). Kmatz and Hunter are both coming back from surgery and Lattery has been pretty notorious for being a slow starter on seasons and in games. The other 3 are experiencing this level for the first time and are having some growing pains. Those 6 guys make up 21 free bases which is 70% of all freebies. The other 12 pitchers have 9 free bases and 63% of the innings. Imo our pitching is actually looking really good. If 2 of 3 of the struggling vets figure things out and 2 of 3 of the struggling new guys figure it out we are playing some very clean baseball. Myself, I am pleased with most of this staff and feeling bullish. How about you guys? 1.56 is an awful WHIP for this early in the season! That is the highest WHIP after five games since 2016, a 4-1 start with the only loss being a 12-9 loss to Utah Valley in Surprise. The fact that we missed the Tourney in 2016 does not bode extremely well. The time before that that we had a WHIP that high? 2008. 2-3 start with losses to Vandy, Arizona State, and Georgia. Missed the Tourney again. The time before that? 2002. 2-3 with losses to Arizona State and two to San Diego. You have a great analysis about why the walks are up. But I did want to try and challenge that the WHIP number is "good" much less "quite good." A 1.56 WHIP this early in the season is very bad. Four more games. The WHIP is down to 1.33. In the past 20 seasons, 2024 Oregon State passed 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2015. 2006 may come as a surprise, but the 2006 Beavs started 4-4 before starting on a seven-game winning streak. The 2024 Beavs have the eighth-worst WHIP of the past 20 seasons. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Feb 26, 2024 6:55:59 GMT -8
WHIP will settle out. If Kmatz maintains that form that will go along way towards nice stats.
At the end of the day we aren't letting runs being scored and to my eye we are already improving.
This week the starters took a big step forward but the bullpen was a mixed bag of +/-. Almost like we're 8 games in or something 😉
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Feb 26, 2024 8:49:57 GMT -8
Segura was very impressive against okie st. He is very hard to square up. Pretty advanced looking for a freshman. Easy to see why he's getting the nod.
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Post by rgeorge on Feb 26, 2024 11:55:09 GMT -8
1.56 is an awful WHIP for this early in the season! That is the highest WHIP after five games since 2016, a 4-1 start with the only loss being a 12-9 loss to Utah Valley in Surprise. The fact that we missed the Tourney in 2016 does not bode extremely well. The time before that that we had a WHIP that high? 2008. 2-3 start with losses to Vandy, Arizona State, and Georgia. Missed the Tourney again. The time before that? 2002. 2-3 with losses to Arizona State and two to San Diego. You have a great analysis about why the walks are up. But I did want to try and challenge that the WHIP number is "good" much less "quite good." A 1.56 WHIP this early in the season is very bad. Four more games. The WHIP is down to 1.33. In the past 20 seasons, 2024 Oregon State passed 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2015. 2006 may come as a surprise, but the 2006 Beavs started 4-4 before starting on a seven-game winning streak. The 2024 Beavs have the eighth-worst WHIP of the past 20 seasons. For anyone looking at comparisons, the Pac12 stats site for OSU are incorrect, maybe for other teams too?? They have 9 GP, 78 IP and with 60 hits, and 40 walks. OSU has only pitched 69 innings with 55 H, 37 BB... so Wilky's WHIP is correct vs the Pac12 site of 1.28. The must have double entered someone's appearance?! Same with the offensive side... 9 GP, so assuming one of the games was a double entry. |
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Post by messi on Feb 26, 2024 12:03:58 GMT -8
Oklahoma State
Segura 4-23
Montgomery 0-4
Oakes 2-3
Talavs 0-4
Mundt 0-4
Total 6-38 15%
So far this season, the percentages of plate appearances that have 3 ball counts for every pitcher thus far is
Ferguson 30%
Holmes 0%
Hunter 31%
Hutcheson 33%
Keljo 25%
Kmatz 27%
Lattery 27%
Lawson 28%
May 18%
Mejia 28%
Montgomery 0%
Morrell 14%
Mundt 14%
Oakes 75%
Reynolds 47%
Scott 44%
Segura 13%
Talavs 0%
As a team, the Beavs are encountering 24% of plate appearances going to a 3 ball count
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Post by messi on Feb 29, 2024 21:56:57 GMT -8
North Dakota State 1
Lawson 4-6
Hutcheson 2-13
Ferguson 2-8
Mejia 1-9
Total 9-36 25%
So far this season, the percentages of plate appearances that have 3 ball counts for every pitcher thus far is
Ferguson 28%
Holmes 0%
Hunter 31%
Hutcheson 15%
Keljo 25%
Kmatz 27%
Lattery 27%
Lawson 37%
May 18%
Mejia 21%
Montgomery 0%
Morrell 14%
Mundt 14%
Oakes 75%
Reynolds 47%
Scott 44%
Segura 13%
Talavs 0%
As a team, the Beavs are encountering 24% of plate appearances going to a 3 ball count
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Post by easyheat on Feb 29, 2024 23:34:09 GMT -8
Messi's three ball counts tell a story. They are a precursor to walks and base hits. A pitcher is usually forced into throwing a pitch he doesn't want to throw or to a location he doesn't like in order to avoid issuing the BB. The Beavers have probably thrown more pitches to date than the Coaches would like to see. A game by game tally:
New Mexico - 180/109 strikes
Minnesota - 201/105
CSU-Bakersfield - 120/84
Minnesota - 150/90
Texas Tech - 181/104
Arkansas - 122/86
Michigan - 102/85 (7 innings)
Oklahoma State - 148/94
North Dakota State - 131/71 (7 innings)
If you break that down, our pitchers are throwing an average of 17.5 pitches per inning and about 158 pitches per/9 innings.
Our pitchers have thrown 1,335 pitches to record 203 outs or 6.57 pitches per out. I expect that's higher than Coach Dorman wants.
Getting ahead in the count is critical. MLB did a three year study of BA against 10 possible counts' which accentuated the importance of getting and staying ahead in the count. Look at the pitcher's favorable count and the corresponding BA's.
0-0 = .345 (beware of the first pitch hitters)
0-1 = .324
0-2 = .157
1-2 = .166
When the hitter has a favorable count:
1-0 = 344
2-0 = .350
3-0 = .407
2-1 = .340
3-1 = .363
The Beaver pitching staff is 9 games in - it's early and there is likely a ramping up process in progress. I wouldn't expect the staff to be near mid-season form and certainly not in their post-season mode.
I would also return to the question posed several weeks ago.
"The Beaver's offense has produced 90 runs in 9 games. Just how good does the Beaver pitching have to be?"
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Mar 1, 2024 13:10:50 GMT -8
Building on Easy's post here's how it breaks down by pitcher for freebies through 3 weeks so far.
Total: 58
Lawson: 8 (7BB/1HBP)
Reynolds:
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Post by messi on Mar 1, 2024 22:33:51 GMT -8
North Dakota State 2
Hunter 4-18
Keljo 2-14
Holmes 2-9
Total 8-41 19%
So far this season, the percentages of plate appearances that have 3 ball counts for every pitcher thus far is
Ferguson 28%
Holmes 13%
Hunter 27%
Hutcheson 15%
Keljo 19%
Kmatz 27%
Lattery 27%
Lawson 37%
May 18%
Mejia 21%
Montgomery 0%
Morrell 14%
Mundt 14%
Oakes 75%
Reynolds 47%
Scott 44%
Segura 13%
Talavs 0%
As a team, the Beavs are encountering 23% of plate appearances going to a 3 ball count
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Post by messi on Mar 2, 2024 21:49:37 GMT -8
North Dakota State 3
Kmatz 4-18
Morrell 2-7
Oakes 1-4
Total 7-29 24%
So far this season, the percentages of plate appearances that have 3 ball counts for every pitcher thus far is
Ferguson 28%
Holmes 13%
Hunter 27%
Hutcheson 15%
Keljo 19%
Kmatz 25%
Lattery 27%
Lawson 37%
May 18%
Mejia 21%
Montgomery 0%
Morrell 21%
Mundt 14%
Oakes 58%
Reynolds 47%
Scott 44%
Segura 13%
Talavs 0%
As a team, the Beavs are encountering 23% of plate appearances going to a 3 ball count
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Post by messi on Mar 3, 2024 20:22:28 GMT -8
North Dakota State 4Segura 1-25 Talvas 2-5 Mundt 2-3 Hutcheson 1-8
Total 6-41 14%So far this season, the percentages of plate appearances that have 3 ball counts for every pitcher thus far is Ferguson 28% Holmes 13% Hunter 27% Hutcheson 13% Keljo 19% Kmatz 25% Lattery 27% Lawson 37% May 18% Mejia 21% Montgomery 0% Morrell 21% Mundt 30% Oakes 58% Reynolds 47% Scott 44% Segura 10% Talavs 15% As a team, the Beavs are encountering 22% of plate appearances going to a 3 ball count
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Mar 3, 2024 20:39:53 GMT -8
messi do you have a way to get pitches per out for the pitchers?
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Post by easyheat on Mar 3, 2024 21:59:14 GMT -8
Here are 3 starters YTD.
May = 7.25 pitches/out
Kmatz = 5.73 pitches/out
Segura = 5.01 pitches/out
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 3, 2024 23:15:39 GMT -8
1.56 is an awful WHIP for this early in the season! That is the highest WHIP after five games since 2016, a 4-1 start with the only loss being a 12-9 loss to Utah Valley in Surprise. The fact that we missed the Tourney in 2016 does not bode extremely well. The time before that that we had a WHIP that high? 2008. 2-3 start with losses to Vandy, Arizona State, and Georgia. Missed the Tourney again. The time before that? 2002. 2-3 with losses to Arizona State and two to San Diego. You have a great analysis about why the walks are up. But I did want to try and challenge that the WHIP number is "good" much less "quite good." A 1.56 WHIP this early in the season is very bad. Four more games. The WHIP is down to 1.33. In the past 20 seasons, 2024 Oregon State passed 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2015. 2006 may come as a surprise, but the 2006 Beavs started 4-4 before starting on a seven-game winning streak. The 2024 Beavs have the eighth-worst WHIP of the past 20 seasons. Four more games. The WHIP is down to 1.31. In the past 20 seasons, 2024 Oregon State passed 2020 but was passed by 2011. Oregon State had an awful first six games in 2011, starting 2-4, but posted a WHIP of 0.74 in the first weekend homestand. Oregon State posted a WHIP of 1.27 this last weekend. The 2024 Beavs still have the eighth-worst WHIP in the past 20 seasons. |
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Post by messi on Mar 8, 2024 7:18:18 GMT -8
Cal-State Northridge 1
Keljo 4-14
Oakes 1-6
Morrell 0-4
Mejia 0-3
Holmes 0-5
Ferguson 1-3
Total 6-35 17%
So far this season, the percentages of plate appearances that have 3 ball counts for every pitcher thus far is
Ferguson 29%
Holmes 16%
Hunter 27%
Hutcheson 13%
Keljo 22%
Kmatz 25%
Lattery 27%
Lawson 37%
May 18%
Mejia 19%
Montgomery 0%
Morrell 16%
Mundt 30%
Oakes 44%
Reynolds 47%
Scott 44%
Segura 10%
Talavs 15%
As a team, the Beavs are encountering 22% of plate appearances going to a 3 ball count
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