Home run leader 2024

But we all saw Adley get intentionally walked, and then stranded on base because the guys hitting after him just weren't getting the job done. You gotta think if our lineup was stacked Adley's last season, he gets walked a lot less......or "protected." Maybe that's an extreme example though, as he was a total stud, surrounded by lesser hitters.

Adley Rutschman presented a complete hitter in his at bats. He confined his swings to pitches in the zone, used the whole yard and could bust a fastball 425' in a hurry. Pitchers walked Adley for those reasons and not much to get at a weaker hitter coming up behind him which would have usually been our 4 or 5-hole bat.

In 2018 and '19 College pitching was childs play for Adley, pitchers knew that, he knew that (made em throw strikes), and as a result, he walked a lot.

76 walks.  26 intentional.  57 games. 

Bailes should have moved Adley up in the order.  Instead, Adley was wasted on the three-hole.  The three-hole is the most likely position to come up in the order with two outs and no runners on base.  Instead of scoring runs, Rutschman was intentionally stranded on the basepaths game after game after game.

The three-spot is for the fifth-best hitter on the team.  Adley had no business being there.  Move Adley to the two-spot in the Cincinnati game, and what is the result?

First, the pitching did not fail or, at least, it was not the primary cause of failure.  The fifth run was scored, because Ryan Ober, who was an awful defensive first baseman, dropped that foul ball.  And the sixth run was scored on the Beau Philip error.  It should have been 6-4, because Bumpass only gets up that last time, because of the shoddy defensive play to extend the game and give him a fifth at bat.

At the plate, Rutschman came up with:

two outs and bases empty (double), one out and bases empty (flyout), two outs and runner on second (intentional walk), bases loaded no outs (intentional walk), and bases empty no outs (flyout).

Put Rutschman at the two. The results:

0-0. One out and bases empty. Rutschman comes up with more of an opportunity to make a difference. If Rutschman doubles, which he did in the game, You have two outs to bring home Rutschman, rather than one. In the actual game, Rutschman moved to third on a wild pitch, and Philip followed that up with a walk and then stole second.  Second and third with one out, you have something to work with.  In the actual game, it was second and third with two outs and Ober ended the first with an infield fly.

3-1 Cincinnati. No outs and bases empty. Rutschman comes up with more of an opportunity to make a difference. Rutschman flew out. Even so, the Beavers have two more outs to score a run, rather than the one that they were left with in the game.

3-2 Cincinnati. One out and runner on first. Rutschman gets a chance to hit rather than being intentionally walked with Cincinnati clinging to a one-run lead. The Bearcats have to pitch to him rather than pitching around him like in the game and then disposing of Philip. If they do walk Rutschman, Oregon State has two hitters to bring home Malone from second rather than one.

5-2 Cincinnati. Runners on first and second with no outs. This is the first situation, where putting Rutschman at the two does not help the situation. With the deference that Cincinnati gave Rutschman, Rutschman probably still walks the bases full for the three-hitter. However, this situation is unlikely given Oregon State's better situations in Rutschman's three previous plate appearances.

6-6. Bases empty and two outs. In the game, Rutschman flew out in the ninth, rather than coming up in the eighth. Rutschman comes up in a situation, where a flyout does not hurt as much. Flyout and start over with the three hitter in the ninth. Instead, Rutschman flies out and there are only two outs left in the game to try and score the tying run in the ninth. As said in the previous plate appearance, though, this situation is unlikely given Oregon State's better situations in Rutschman's first three plate appearances.

Thank you very much for proving my point very eloquently!  Yes, Georgie, that is exactly the point that I was trying to make.  I am trying to make the point that different situations would lead to different results.  And different situations would lead to obviously better results, because the situations were better.

Unlike other sports, baseball is very formulaic, which easily lends itself to things like metrics. 

Unless you are as dense and sharp as a bowling ball, you can easily move players to different situations and determine whether the situation would provide the player with a greater or lesser chance of success.  And then you can extrapolate from there.

I mean, seriously.  Is it seriously your position that Adley is getting worse pitches with nobody on and one out than nobody on and two out in the first?  If he doubled with the junk he was being thrown, what does he do to a better pitch with one out in the first?

The problem is that Adley never should have been placed in a position with no one on and two outs.  A complete waste of Adley.  And in the most important game of the season, Adley was wasted in not one but two different stupid two-out situations.  A two out and no one on situation in the first and a second very obvious runner on second and two outs intentional walk situation.  That is taking the bat out of Adley's hands in 40% of his plate appearances.  In law, that would be malpractice.  No one should do that.  And I will continue to point out the foolishness of Bailey's lineups until the end of time, because they were categorically stupid.