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Post by beaverinohio on Mar 14, 2024 12:32:06 GMT -8
Door swings both ways though. Yes, Beavers had 7 losses by 8 or fewer points (7 points, 7, 7, 4, 8, 6, 2). They also 6 wins by fewer than 8 points (1, 7, 3, 1, 3, 7) and one win that though it was I think by 10 took OT to get. Looks like might have been closer to a truly putrid season than a great one.
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 14, 2024 12:54:03 GMT -8
So we won the Moral Victory National Championship! Not at all. No. But Oregon State was not that far away from a great season. Close losses do not make a team "not far away from a great season". They've been horrible for three consecutive seasons and the only reason there has been (26 D1?) wins over those three seasons is because of the low level NC schedule. Many teams play weak NC schedules, but is the only reason WT isn't 50+ games under .500 overall. Approximately 50% of his 140 total wins are versus a schedule with an average NC RPI over 200 (depending on which site you want to use... NC NET maybe worse??). Love those stats or not... it is not anywhere near ever saying "great". The last decent NC SOS was the "covid season" of '21 where only (5) NC were played. And, still (9) of the 19 D1 wins were versus Q3/Q4 teams... and (3) losses... vs NC RPI of 128. The excuse filled '22 season had (3) total wins all vs Q3/Q4 (3-9 overall vs Q3/Q4), NC RPI of 285. So, I guess the (8) losses of 6 points or less made that a "decent" season?? What about the '23 season and the (10) total wins, (8) vs Q3/Q4 teams (8-9) vs the 318th ranked NC RPI? Oh, there were only (4) close losses of 6 points or less, but I mean that's close to a what... 14 win season. BUT... not since the other losses were by about 17 points per game. And, of course this almost great season. Hmmmm... NC RPI up to #103 because OSU was invited to two neutral site events with P6 opponents... of course leading to three losses by an average of about 21 points! But hey, (12) D1 wins... sorry Linfield doesn't count... (9) vs Q3/Q4 RPI teams (9-7 vs Q3/Q4 overall). Again... no where near great by any made up reasoning... close losses. FFS... guess there needs to be a contract provision for losses 6pts or less?! So... counting the E8 season... (29) of the (44) D1 wins are vs Q3/Q4 teams. I guess for some expectations are very low?! But, you know, "history" says...  WT is returning... but think about it... (44) TOTAL D1 wins over (4) seasons... INCLUDING an E8 season!! And the guy is making near $3 mil... |
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Post by beaverinohio on Mar 14, 2024 12:58:38 GMT -8
Not at all. No. But Oregon State was not that far away from a great season. Ok. Now do wins by less than 8 points. Hey, no need to bring the other side of the argument up. What I find amusing is that 8 or less was the threshold chosen. Normally you’d expect two possession games for “flippable” games, but at 6 points only 3 losses would qualify but 4 wins would — plus an OT and a double OT win. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Mar 14, 2024 14:27:48 GMT -8
Door swings both ways though. Yes, Beavers had 7 losses by 8 or fewer points (7 points, 7, 7, 4, 8, 6, 2). They also 6 wins by fewer than 8 points (1, 7, 3, 1, 3, 7) and one win that though it was I think by 10 took OT to get. Looks like might have been closer to a truly putrid season than a great one. 8 points is essentially a 3-4 possession game win or lose. That means competitive in my mind. My bigger concern is the blowouts, say anything over 14 or so, especially at home. We had a few too many in my mind. In a competitive game, a team who's got a bunch of juniors and seniors in their top 6-7 should have an advantage over a team who's top 6-7 are predominantly sophmores and freshmen. The Beavers had the disadvantage in every league game this season as far as I can tell. Realistically, based strictly on experience, and possibly talent, and excluding homecourt advantage, the Beavers probably should have lost every Pac-12 game. As it was, Arizona was the only team in the league that topped the Beavs in success against the spread. Having the bulk of that success in home games says inexperience to me. Next year's success will depend in good part on retention of this year's top younger guys and incorporating a couple new faces capable of solid play. We lose a couple of our top younger core players it could be difficult times ahead unless Tinkle pulls a couple rabbits out of the hat in offseason transfers. Keep em' and with more experience and an overall less powerful league there should be some better success. I'm not saying they'll win the league, but competing for the top 3-5 in the WCC is a start. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Mar 14, 2024 14:30:06 GMT -8
Ok. Now do wins by less than 8 points. Hey, no need to bring the other side of the argument up. What I find amusing is that 8 or less was the threshold chosen. Normally you’d expect two possession games for “flippable” games, but at 6 points only 3 losses would qualify but 4 wins would — plus an OT and a double OT win. Seriously, a 2 possession game is the limit for a game that could go either way? |
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 14, 2024 14:46:40 GMT -8
Hey, no need to bring the other side of the argument up. What I find amusing is that 8 or less was the threshold chosen. Normally you’d expect two possession games for “flippable” games, but at 6 points only 3 losses would qualify but 4 wins would — plus an OT and a double OT win. Seriously, a 2 possession game is the limit for a game that could go either way? Seriously... the 8th, 9th, 10th year of a program being just in competitive contests is some sort of a bench mark? Or, finishing 3rd-5th in what has been the 11th rated conference for several years? Sounds like the person giving the extensions and vote of confidence has a similar philosophy. 🤔 And... what you have to love is that there isn't one signee, not one commit, not one player showing "interest" on the major recruiting sites. OSU can't even be ranked as it has no class or commits. Then of course WT will have to depend on the portal. You know that "mistake" he often eludes to from a couple years back. Returning with the vote of confidence should indicate something. Good coaches, with solid programs don't need that "vote". But, since media sites around the country have had WT's seat warm, or hot for a couple years now even the local fish wrapper had to ask. |
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Post by beaverinohio on Mar 14, 2024 15:12:38 GMT -8
Hey, no need to bring the other side of the argument up. What I find amusing is that 8 or less was the threshold chosen. Normally you’d expect two possession games for “flippable” games, but at 6 points only 3 losses would qualify but 4 wins would — plus an OT and a double OT win. Seriously, a 2 possession game is the limit for a game that could go either way? In general when you’re just looking at final score, I’d say yeah. Throughout the year and especially at this time of year, when analysts talk about a team playing close games, I guarantee you that you’ll hear more about record in one or two possessions games far more often by a large margin than 3 or 4 possession games. There is a reason for that. One or two breaks in last minute are only needed to change outcome. Get into needing three or four and you’re talking about getting a lot luckier. But sure, maybe original poster picked 8 points at random and it only coincidentally made his argument look stronger. 🙄 |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 14, 2024 15:20:04 GMT -8
Seriously, a 2 possession game is the limit for a game that could go either way? Seriously... the 8th, 9th, 10th year of a program being just in competitive contests is some sort of a bench mark? Or, finishing 3rd-5th in what has been the 11th rated conference for several years? Sounds like the person giving the extensions and vote of confidence has a similar philosophy. 🤔 And... what you have to love is that there isn't one signee, not one commit, not one player showing "interest" on the major recruiting sites. OSU can't even be ranked as it has no class or commits. Then of course WT will have to depend on the portal. You know that "mistake" he often eludes to from a couple years back. Returning with the vote of confidence should indicate something. Good coaches, with solid programs don't need that "vote". But, since media sites around the country have had WT's seat warm, or hot for a couple years now even the local fish wrapper had to ask. After the disaster of 2021-22, I am looking for progress, and I am seeing it. Crap all over that sentiment, if you would like. Free country. |
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 14, 2024 16:23:41 GMT -8
Seriously... the 8th, 9th, 10th year of a program being just in competitive contests is some sort of a bench mark? Or, finishing 3rd-5th in what has been the 11th rated conference for several years? Sounds like the person giving the extensions and vote of confidence has a similar philosophy. 🤔 And... what you have to love is that there isn't one signee, not one commit, not one player showing "interest" on the major recruiting sites. OSU can't even be ranked as it has no class or commits. Then of course WT will have to depend on the portal. You know that "mistake" he often eludes to from a couple years back. Returning with the vote of confidence should indicate something. Good coaches, with solid programs don't need that "vote". But, since media sites around the country have had WT's seat warm, or hot for a couple years now even the local fish wrapper had to ask. After the disaster of 2021-22, I am looking for progress, and I am seeing it. Crap all over that sentiment, if you would like. Free country. I don't "crap all over" or call other's opinions "laughable"... or worse. I present data and facts that refute disclaimers, excuses, and subjectivity. While at the same time reinforcing my opinion and views on the state of the program. |
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Post by speakthetruth on Mar 14, 2024 16:44:27 GMT -8
Some say there has been progress since the 21-22 season. In 21-22 the pac12 record was 1-19 leading to 12th place. The last two years the pac12 record has been 5-15 improving all the way to 11th place last year and sliding back to 12th this year. 12th to 11th to 12th some kind of improvement. This year is probably the weakest pac12 I can remember.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Mar 14, 2024 17:32:47 GMT -8
Seriously, a 2 possession game is the limit for a game that could go either way? In general when you’re just looking at final score, I’d say yeah. Throughout the year and especially at this time of year, when analysts talk about a team playing close games, I guarantee you that you’ll hear more about record in one or two possessions games far more often by a large margin than 3 or 4 possession games. There is a reason for that. One or two breaks in last minute are only needed to change outcome. Get into needing three or four and you’re talking about getting a lot luckier. But sure, maybe original poster picked 8 points at random and it only coincidentally made his argument look stronger. 🙄 The college basketball game averages 60-80 possessions a gamd - PER TEAM. As far as I know, a 3 possession game means any combination of a ball going in or not going in the basket has occurred, for any number of reasons, over the course of 140+/- possession switches a game. Any team that can hang within a combination of 3 total possessions of another is not being completely outplayed. We were outplayed in too many games in my book, but not in the overwhelming number of them. The majority of the games were quite close, especially when looking at the experience difference between the Beavs and other teams in the league. If this team was as bad as some people imply, it would have been curb-stomped on a regular basis. Sure, close games show up in the record, but the win-loss record is rarely indicative if just how close a team is or isn't to actually being a decent team. It's a young team. In general, young players improve. Reminds me of a few weeks ago when someone said KC Ibekwe is no Steve Johnson. Well guess what, Steve Johnson wasn't exactly the Steve Johnson we remember the 678 minutes (92 minutes more than Ibekwe) he played his first 2 seasons here. He was better offensively than Ibekwe, but he wasn't in his prime yet at all. He actually fouled a bit more than Ibekwe (that surprised me), but a lot of the other numbers were actually pretty close, KC with a bit more assists and fewer turnovers per minute, Steve with a bit more rebounds per minute. I'm not finding steal and blocked shot records from 1976, so I'm not sure who's stats were better there. Point being, Johnson got better with age, so can Ibekwe... and the rest of the team. Now people can scream all they want about the horrible year after the NCAA Tourney run, but he's brought in a fairly decent young nucleus to build around, and those that are here could become pretty decent if they stick around (do not know if that happens or not yet). Barnes giving the "vote of confidence" the other day really doesn't mean much. Between the transfer portal and LOI day the next month, a lot could happen the next 30-45 days. I would hope if there is a coaching change made it comes before the third week of May to where the next coach isn't hamstrung by timing like Tinkle was when he came in. |
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Post by beaverinohio on Mar 14, 2024 17:43:05 GMT -8
Some say there has been progress since the 21-22 season. In 21-22 the pac12 record was 1-19 leading to 12th place. The last two years the pac12 record has been 5-15 improving all the way to 11th place last year and sliding back to 12th this year. 12th to 11th to 12th some kind of improvement. This year is probably the weakest pac12 I can remember. That’s the thing. Yes, several players definitely improved this year, but that didn’t show up in any meaningful way as far as team performance. Team had same conf record and won 2 more games overall. I hope the core of the team stays together But I’m not confident at all that additional improvement by current players will have a huge impact on overall team performance. There are just too many holes with this team. I expect more conference wins next year, but in large part because of the easier schedule. If the whole team comes back except Chol and Dexter, I assume they’ll give a scholarship to Lake. Do we really think WT is going to find a difference maker with that last spot? |
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Post by beaverinohio on Mar 14, 2024 17:54:34 GMT -8
In general when you’re just looking at final score, I’d say yeah. Throughout the year and especially at this time of year, when analysts talk about a team playing close games, I guarantee you that you’ll hear more about record in one or two possessions games far more often by a large margin than 3 or 4 possession games. There is a reason for that. One or two breaks in last minute are only needed to change outcome. Get into needing three or four and you’re talking about getting a lot luckier. But sure, maybe original poster picked 8 points at random and it only coincidentally made his argument look stronger. 🙄 The college basketball game averages 60-80 possessions a gamd - PER TEAM. As far as I know, a 3 possession game means any combination of a ball going in or not going in the basket has occurred, for any number of reasons, over the course of 140+/- possession switches a game. Any team that can hang within a combination of 3 total possessions of another is not being completely outplayed. We were outplayed in too many games in my book, but not in the overwhelming number of them. The majority of the games were quite close, especially when looking at the experience difference between the Beavs and other teams in the league. If this team was as bad as some people imply, it would have been curb-stomped on a regular basis. Sure, close games show up in the record, but the win-loss record is rarely indicative if just how close a team is or isn't to actually being a decent team. It's a young team. In general, young players improve. Reminds me of a few weeks ago when someone said KC Ibekwe is no Steve Johnson. Well guess what, Steve Johnson wasn't exactly the Steve Johnson we remember the 678 minutes (92 minutes more than Ibekwe) he played his first 2 seasons here. He was better offensively than Ibekwe, but he wasn't in his prime yet at all. He actually fouled a bit more than Ibekwe (that surprised me), but a lot of the other numbers were actually pretty close, KC with a bit more assists and fewer turnovers per minute, Steve with a bit more rebounds per minute. I'm not finding steal and blocked shot records from 1976, so I'm not sure who's stats were better there. Point being, Johnson got better with age, so can Ibekwe... and the rest of the team. Now people can scream all they want about the horrible year after the NCAA Tourney run, but he's brought in a fairly decent young nucleus to build around, and those that are here could become pretty decent if they stick around (do not know if that happens or not yet). Barnes giving the "vote of confidence" the other day really doesn't mean much. Between the transfer portal and LOI day the next month, a lot could happen the next 30-45 days. I would hope if there is a coaching change made it comes before the third week of May to where the next coach isn't hamstrung by timing like Tinkle was when he came in. That’s all well and good, but the original poster took the scenario Beavs would win all those “close” games with no change in outcome to the close wins, which overall were closer than the close losses. In reality the close games evened out, which is what one would expect — especially with a mediocre team. Listing number of close losses and saying the team nearly had a great season is the definition of seeing things through orange-colored glasses while drinking orange Kool-aid, and lacks any kind of objectivity. |
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Post by speakthetruth on Mar 14, 2024 18:51:20 GMT -8
So some are looking for letter of intent day and the transfer portal to bring in players. In all seriousness what player is going to come here with tinkle grabbing life rings? At this point in time there isn't one recruit committed to the program.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Mar 14, 2024 18:58:31 GMT -8
Late edit: For accuracy sake, I meant 92 minutes "less" than Ibekwe.
To Beaverinohio, sometimes I tend to lose track of who said what, when. Sorry. The close games do pretty much balance themselves out, generally it takes a real good team to win the bulk of them.
I guess I get a little triggered by those who imply things can't improve (not saying you are one of those implying that), even if our young core group sticks together.
Some seem to like to imply that a current or future team will do something based on some former season or seasons, that is a little over the top as well, whether the implication was positive or negative.... anyone knowing the future that well should be heavily invested in the stock market... they'd do well enough to buy out all the coaches and players they want.
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