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Post by speakthetruth on Mar 12, 2024 6:54:50 GMT -8
My take on all this Oregon State is not a good team and Tinkle isn't a good coach. Don't care much about missouri.
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Post by beaverinohio on Mar 12, 2024 7:04:25 GMT -8
My take on all this Oregon State is not a good team and Tinkle isn't a good coach. Don't care much about missouri. I agree. I don’t either. Initially I just said I’m still bullish on Gates. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 12, 2024 14:42:32 GMT -8
Sort of appreciated the complete ignoring of the importance of Malone-Key info. I guess I’m getting used to that kind of thing from him now. Have to wonder if he just stopped watching team during that 3 win season — not that I’d blame him if he did. How else to explain that he could think he averaged nearly 15 ppg. I highly doubt Malone-Key even broke double figures in a game that year. Also find it amusing that the discussion started around the 2022-23 team, but he switched emphasis to this year’s team when he saw the metric numbers showed outside of number of wins the 2023 team wasn’t really close to being better than Missouri this year. My apologies, Ohio. I apparently was looking at either ppm or pts/possession. Malone-Key scored a lot for how little he played, but he played little. The five leading scorers, not six leading scorers. Apologies for the confusion. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 12, 2024 14:43:54 GMT -8
Wilky I find it interesting that the two metric systems the NCAA uses — NET and KenPom — you find greatly flawed, but the one they got rid of — RPI — you love. I think that may well be because RPI relies predominantly on SOS, and for some reason you think that is the true, accurate way to measure things. In fact you say that “for all of its flaws [RPI] . . . [filters] everything out to see how a team does sterilely against the schedule.” That is literally its greatest flaw. RPI doesn’t take into consideration where game was played or the actual quality of the opponent (only won-loss record), so a home win against Binghamton is actually better than a road win against UCLA. RPI tries to lessen the opponent quality problem by factoring in the opponents’ opponents records, but that has its own flaws. It also doesn’t consider the number of noncon games. Missouri played 3 more noncon games than OSU because of shorter conf schedule and they didn’t play a Linfield. To the latter point, Linfield (8-17), who Beavers beat 82-46 in first game of season, doesn’t factor into SOS because they’re not D1. Missouri played Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-18) in its first game and beat them 101-79. But since MO’s “let’s get a win in first game” opponent is D1, that bad record is factored into SOS. And given the juggernaut the SEC has become, one would expect those two extra noncon games to be against cupcake like teams (especially given the difficulty of the core of their noncon schedule) — further hurting their noncon SOS. Now let’s look at the core of the teams’ noncon schedules. Both teams played 6 noncon games against teams better than .500. Oregon State W - Troy W - App St L - Neb (N) L - Baylor (N) L - Pitt (N) W- UC Davis Missouri L - Memphis W- Minnesota (A) W- Pittsburgh (A) L - Kansas (A) L - Seton Hall (N) L - Illinois (N) Hmmmm anything jump out at you? Maybe that 5 of 6 of Missouri’s opponents were P6 with the lone one that wasn’t having beat Clemson, TA&M and UVA. The 3 non-P6 opponents of the Beavs have one quality win among them — a win over Auburn. Or you might have noticed that 3 of Missouri’s games are actual road games. And in one of those away games they beat Pitt 71-64, while the Beavers lost to Pitt at a neutral site 76-51. Man that’s a 22 point swing. I’m sorry but if you can look at that and conclude the Beavers played an overall “stronger noncon slate” because MO played Loyola-Maryland and Central Arkansas in its 2 extra noncon games, you might want to watch more college bball — or maybe stop watching it completely. The funny thing about this discussion now is that I never said Missouri was better than this year’s team — though those outcomes against common opponent Pittsburgh certainly does give one pause. I’ve just been responding to your ridiculous “those metrics are hogwash if they don’t agree with my side of the argument” approach and your belief that SOS and RPI are the only true metric (well, again, unless they go against your side of the argument). RPI does take into account where a game is played, as does NET and KenPom. RPI filters out the scores, though. NET filters out blowouts. KenPom intentionally incorporates scores. You bring up a great point, though, which is that none of the three incorporates Linfield. That said, if you exclude Linfield, the rankings are uniform that Oregon State played a more difficult non-conference slate. You bring up the best of Missouri's schedule, but you do not bring up the worst. One of Missouri's wins is against the Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds, a second is against Central Arkansas (Missouri's final win), a third was against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, a fourth was against South Carolina State, a fifth against SIUE, and a sixth against 12-18 Wichita State. Stack up the schedules against each other using NET, if you would like: Missouri Oregon StateQuadrant 1 Pittsburgh ArizonaQuadrant 2 Minnesota Appalachian St., Oregon, & Utah
Quadrant 3 Wichita St. Arizona St., Troy, & USC
Missouri & Oregon State have the same number of Quadrant Four wins, five. But unlike Missouri, Oregon State does not have a Quadrant Four loss. Missouri lost to NET 295 Jackson State 73-72 in Columbia.
Oregon State's worst loss is either the 69-62 home loss to UCLA or the overtime loss to Stanford. And Missouri has at least two losses--Jackson State and Vandy--which are worse than Oregon State's worst loss.
There is no comparison between the two teams. Oregon State is much better. Any ranking that suggests that Missouri is the better team is dead wrong.
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Post by beaverinohio on Mar 12, 2024 15:53:21 GMT -8
Wilky,
In a previous post you said OSU had a “stronger nonconference slate.” I address that and why SOS doesn’t show the full picture. You say I don’t address MO’s bad noncon opponents. Funny. I remember typing some of those names. One of the problems with SOS is that all teams schedule 5 or so bad teams. How much difference is three between #330 and # 280? Very little really except in SOS. As I also pointed out, MO had 3 additional noncon games. With the noncon opponents MO had at the top end and a SEC conf schedule, of course they scheduled a few more cupcakes further hurting their SOS Given what we know about Beavers road woes, you might be the only one who thinks Beavers wouldn’t have gone 0-6 against the top 6 opponents on MO’s noncon slate (of course you just slide right over that part of my post). That’s why using a SOS number to emphatically say one team had a tougher noncon slate isn’t always right. Need to dig deeper.
Thanks for that listing of quad games. Couldn’t help but notice that in a discussion about noncon schedule you slide in conference games. Guess that’s what is meant by moving the goalposts.
As I said in previous post, I never said that I thought Missouri had a better season this year than the Beavs. I’ve just been responding to you cherry picking metrics that you think support your argument and labeling the ones that don’t as hogwash. If I was on the selection committee for a tourney for bad teams, I’d definitely take OSU over MO. Their resume is better (not as bad?). If the two teams met in that mythical tournament, I don’t think a win by Beavs is a foregone conclusion — especially at a neutral site or at MO. KenPom efficiency are similar. I think MO had 5 conference games decided by two possessions and another two by 7 points. Then there is that common opponent thing with differing results. Would likely be a close game. And that concludes my thoughts on this subject.
All of this stemmed from my statement that I was still bullish on Gates. And I still am. Team had a bad season following an NCAA appearance and win. He lost a lot more from that tourney than WT did from his last tourney team and had a better record than WT did. We’ll see how MO bounces back next year. Bringing in the #4 recruiting class looks like a great way for Gates to start the rebuild. Maybe I’m wrong and his first season at the helm was an aberration. We’ll see.
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Post by speakthetruth on Mar 13, 2024 9:53:57 GMT -8
It's really hard for a successful coach to stick around for 11 years and then there is tinkle.
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Post by speakthetruth on Mar 13, 2024 10:55:48 GMT -8
Frankly every school in D1 is laughing at us.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 13, 2024 13:53:42 GMT -8
Frankly every school in D1 is laughing at us. Troy? Appy State? Davis? Cal Poly? Utah Valley? UTSA? Idaho State? USC? Arizona? Arizona State? Stanford? Utah? If they are laughing, they are idiots. |
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Post by treasurevalleybeav on Mar 13, 2024 15:51:55 GMT -8
Almost 70 losses in the last three years. Yikes.
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 13, 2024 17:04:14 GMT -8
Almost 70 losses in the last three years. Yikes. That would be good if we were in the NBA |
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Post by speakthetruth on Mar 13, 2024 18:25:52 GMT -8
Frankly every school in D1 is laughing at us. Troy? Appy State? Davis? Cal Poly? Utah Valley? UTSA? Idaho State? USC? Arizona? Arizona State? Stanford? Utah? If they are laughing, they are idiots. Don't forget linfield. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 14, 2024 11:37:15 GMT -8
Troy? Appy State? Davis? Cal Poly? Utah Valley? UTSA? Idaho State? USC? Arizona? Arizona State? Stanford? Utah? If they are laughing, they are idiots. Don't forget linfield. You said D1 schools. Oregon State is in the upper half of all D1 schools, but the Beavs were not in the upper third, which is basically the cutoff to start meaningfully talking about the postseason. Seven losses by less than eight points. There's always next year. |
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Post by TheGlove on Mar 14, 2024 11:54:59 GMT -8
Seven losses by less than eight points. So we won the Moral Victory National Championship! |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 14, 2024 11:56:25 GMT -8
Seven losses by less than eight points. So we won the Moral Victory National Championship! Not at all. No. But Oregon State was not that far away from a great season. |
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Post by TheGlove on Mar 14, 2024 12:30:12 GMT -8
So we won the Moral Victory National Championship! Not at all. No. But Oregon State was not that far away from a great season. Ok. Now do wins by less than 8 points. |
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