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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jan 17, 2024 13:54:43 GMT -8
In other kinda/sorta related news, Jon Wilner is reporting that there is an emergency UC Regents meeting next week to discuss a proposed audit of Cal athletic dept. This could potentially cause some ripples or result in one more available dance partner for purposes of the conference rebuild... Tuesday the 23rd. |
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Post by 415hawaiiboy on Jan 17, 2024 15:02:57 GMT -8
Comparing getting high exit fees in the MWC with getting high exit fees in the former pac 12 is ridiculous. The MWC does not and did not have USC. USC was never going to agree to high exit fees, fees obviously aimed at keeping USC in the conference. To have tried to force that would have also destroyed the conference. A classic case of damned if you try to and damned if you don't. USC always held all the cards and it was only a matter of them finally (the talk of them bailing has been around for at least 10 years) doing the math, seeing the east coast demographics, east coast time zones, east coast money. There never was much that would stop them from leaving once they did the math. Only nostalgia for being in a conference with Stanford and Cal kept them around as long as they stayed. USC and UCLA wanted a bigger split of the media deal since they felt that they collectively had the most value. Had the rest of the conference agreed, we likely would not be talking about any of this and instead talking about the new additions of Texas and Oklahoma who would also be getting a bigger split of the media deal. Would that be undeniably better than the best of our current prospects? Depends on how optimistic you are about what options will open up over the next two years. If you view the reverse merger with the MWC as being inevitable, nope. If you view the FSU case with interest and wonder what types of options will open up if they prevail, you probably think we have a shot at ending up better off than being forced to battle the Big 4 with one arm tied behind your back. And Oregon and Washington were never going to agree to that anyway. Why wouldn’t a full reverse merger with the MWC include performance incentives (and a lower base revenue share) so schools who think they are the big dogs can earn it? Why leave MW schools stranded without a conference much like how OSU and WSU feel now? |
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Post by orangeattack on Jan 17, 2024 15:27:45 GMT -8
USC and UCLA wanted a bigger split of the media deal since they felt that they collectively had the most value. Had the rest of the conference agreed, we likely would not be talking about any of this and instead talking about the new additions of Texas and Oklahoma who would also be getting a bigger split of the media deal. Would that be undeniably better than the best of our current prospects? Depends on how optimistic you are about what options will open up over the next two years. If you view the reverse merger with the MWC as being inevitable, nope. If you view the FSU case with interest and wonder what types of options will open up if they prevail, you probably think we have a shot at ending up better off than being forced to battle the Big 4 with one arm tied behind your back. And Oregon and Washington were never going to agree to that anyway. Why wouldn’t a full reverse merger with the MWC include performance incentives (and a lower base revenue share) so schools who think they are the big dogs can earn it? Why leave MW schools stranded without a conference much like how OSU and WSU feel now? I don't think the issue is balking at paying full shares. It's just that those of us who have been really heavily dialed into this whole conference realignment have some kind of a decent picture of what we are collectively up against in negotiating a new media deal. What does the MW media deal net per school, something like $7M per year? OSU officials have indicated that they are targeting $30M a year for a media deal, and the dead honest truth is that OSU and WSU being added to the MW alone does not bridge that gap. We ain't that cool. We can't just write our own ticket. We have some advantages that we could use to pair up with a select number of schools and present something as a package that will earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $30M per year, so that OSU and WSU can remain competitive enough to make a run at a 16 team playoff. This is an absolute do or die situation because we JUST finished a $65M stadium renovation. It sucks that there are going to be some schools left without a chair when the music stops, but nobody can consider the feelings of programs that they have little or no affiliation with, historic or otherwise. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Jan 17, 2024 15:50:23 GMT -8
Why wouldn’t a full reverse merger with the MWC include performance incentives (and a lower base revenue share) so schools who think they are the big dogs can earn it? Why leave MW schools stranded without a conference much like how OSU and WSU feel now? I don't think the issue is balking at paying full shares. It's just that those of us who have been really heavily dialed into this whole conference realignment have some kind of a decent picture of what we are collectively up against in negotiating a new media deal. What does the MW media deal net per school, something like $7M per year? OSU officials have indicated that they are targeting $30M a year for a media deal, and the dead honest truth is that OSU and WSU being added to the MW alone does not bridge that gap. We ain't that cool. We can't just write our own ticket. We have some advantages that we could use to pair up with a select number of schools and present something as a package that will earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $30M per year, so that OSU and WSU can remain competitive enough to make a run at a 16 team playoff. This is an absolute do or die situation because we JUST finished a $65M stadium renovation. It sucks that there are going to be some schools left without a chair when the music stops, but nobody can consider the feelings of programs that they have little or no affiliation with, historic or otherwise. The stadium debt is a very small issue. The annual debt service is $2.6 million per year on the $45 million in bonds for the stadium, before the additional revenue that is being received from the new luxury seating on that side (estimated around $5 million per year). And the remodel was $162 million, not $65 million. I just don't see anyone that we can add that would get us to a $30 million per year media deal without the implosion of another conference. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jan 17, 2024 16:31:56 GMT -8
Air Force
Boise State
Colorado State
Fresno State
Nevada
Oregon State
San Diego State
San Jose State
UNLV
Wazzu
Play Cal, Oregon, and one other Power Five (hopefully Washington, eventually) every year.
Maybe flip out Air Force and Nevada for two teams in Louisiana/Texas.
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Post by grayman on Jan 17, 2024 16:47:41 GMT -8
Air Force Boise State Colorado State Fresno State Nevada Oregon State San Diego State San Jose State UNLV Wazzu Play Cal, Oregon, and one other Power Five (hopefully Washington, eventually) every year. Maybe flip out Air Force and Nevada for two teams in Louisiana/Texas. That would be very expensive to do before Aug. 1, 2027. And IMO, if you're going to do this you might as well go for a full merger. BUT, you listed eight MWC teams. If nine vote to dissolve the MWC, they can join the Pac-2 for no cost to anyone. Not saying it will happen but it's an option if enough MWC teams believe it's the better move. I would say keep watching to see what happens with the ACC. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Jan 17, 2024 18:11:04 GMT -8
Air Force Boise State Colorado State Fresno State Nevada Oregon State San Diego State San Jose State UNLV Wazzu Play Cal, Oregon, and one other Power Five (hopefully Washington, eventually) every year. Maybe flip out Air Force and Nevada for two teams in Louisiana/Texas. That may get you a media deal of $10 million a team, if you’re lucky. You might as well take all their teams. |
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Post by beaver55to7 on Jan 17, 2024 19:45:11 GMT -8
Air Force Boise State Colorado State Fresno State Nevada Oregon State San Diego State San Jose State UNLV Wazzu Play Cal, Oregon, and one other Power Five (hopefully Washington, eventually) every year. Maybe flip out Air Force and Nevada for two teams in Louisiana/Texas. what? If uo, uw, stanford, ua, asu, Utah, cal, wsu and osu was $25 mil you think that mess is $30 mil. Oookkkkaaayyy |
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Post by p8nted on Jan 17, 2024 20:32:53 GMT -8
Air Force Boise State Colorado State Fresno State Nevada Oregon State San Diego State San Jose State UNLV Wazzu Play Cal, Oregon, and one other Power Five (hopefully Washington, eventually) every year. Maybe flip out Air Force and Nevada for two teams in Louisiana/Texas. That may get you a media deal of $10 million a team, if you’re lucky. You might as well take all their teams. Yep. This best of the rest is not going to be a very big TV deal. Dreaming to think you can even get $10 million. Tulane and Memphis will do anything to stay in the east anyway. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Jan 18, 2024 5:29:43 GMT -8
That may get you a media deal of $10 million a team, if you’re lucky. You might as well take all their teams. Yep. This best of the rest is not going to be a very big TV deal. Dreaming to think you can even get $10 million. Tulane and Memphis will do anything to stay in the east anyway. Even if you added Tulane and Memphis, it’s highly doubtful that you’d get anything more than $10 million. |
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escott58
Sophomore
Posts: 1,298
Grad Year: 1983
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Post by escott58 on Jan 18, 2024 9:04:56 GMT -8
To me it always comes back to media deal with Apple or Amazon. It wouldn't have to be 30 million, but incentives would push it up quite a bit hopefully. I jump on that like a beaver on a young sapling. I know I'm missing something in the equation like current media deals.
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Post by ochobeavo on Jan 18, 2024 9:16:51 GMT -8
To me it always comes back to media deal with Apple or Amazon. It wouldn't have to be 30 million, but incentives would push it up quite a bit hopefully. I jump on that like a beaver on a young sapling. I know I'm missing something in the equation like current media deals. Amazon took another step into the sports media world yesterday. Announced they have a minority stake in Bally sports which will result in regional coverage of NBA/MLB/NHL teams. Gotta think college sports not too far behind. |
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Post by 415hawaiiboy on Jan 18, 2024 9:29:03 GMT -8
To me it always comes back to media deal with Apple or Amazon. It wouldn't have to be 30 million, but incentives would push it up quite a bit hopefully. I jump on that like a beaver on a young sapling. I know I'm missing something in the equation like current media deals. I went to Hawaii and Cal so I’m a fan of both schools. When the PAC still had some life to it, I was pushing for Cal/Stanford to help create a California centered football league with the MWC and the remains of the PAC. The goal would be to revive college football in the West by creating drivable games/rivalries, much like what happens in the East with closer proximities. We would have regional battles right in CA, such as Fresno vs Cal, ideologically different folks and it would be a lot of fun. Nevada Reno fans packing I-80 to play Stanford, Cal or San Jose St. San Jose fans at Stanford. Just helps with attendance and relevance. Of course, Hawaii in the mix. California with its 40 million population, geographically wise half the Eastern seaborne. Then media deal with Apple/Amazon. If the ACC experiment fails, it is this vision that should be pushed for. Not P2-MWC-AAC hybrid. Cal/Stan coming back is a big IF which I’m going to assume won’t happen. But to make it enticing, it’s not to make a lesser version of the Big 12. It is to become the crown jewel of this new Western conference using a new age media partner. |
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Post by 415hawaiiboy on Jan 18, 2024 9:42:00 GMT -8
The problem with Cal, Stanford was they are too exclusive for wide ranging fandom. They attract alumni, but the t-shirt fans (like Oregons or USC) are not there, because that’s what Pac-12 football became - elite schools, exclusivity.
A regional, drivable game model would bring for fans to the table because it’s more relevant
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Post by orangeattack on Jan 18, 2024 9:44:56 GMT -8
To me it always comes back to media deal with Apple or Amazon. It wouldn't have to be 30 million, but incentives would push it up quite a bit hopefully. I jump on that like a beaver on a young sapling. I know I'm missing something in the equation like current media deals. I went to Hawaii and Cal so I’m a fan of both schools. When the PAC still had some life to it, I was pushing for Cal/Stanford to help create a California centered football league with the MWC and the remains of the PAC. The goal would be to revive college football in the West by creating drivable games/rivalries, much like what happens in the East with closer proximities. We would have regional battles right in CA, such as Fresno vs Cal, ideologically different folks and it would be a lot of fun. Nevada Reno fans packing I-80 to play Stanford, Cal or San Jose St. San Jose fans at Stanford. Just helps with attendance and relevance. Of course, Hawaii in the mix. California with its 40 million population, geographically wise half the Eastern seaborne. Then media deal with Apple/Amazon. If the ACC experiment fails, it is this vision that should be pushed for. Not P2-MWC-AAC hybrid. Cal/Stan coming back is a big IF which I’m going to assume won’t happen. But to make it enticing, it’s not to make a lesser version of the Big 12. It is to become the crown jewel of this new Western conference using a new age media partner. Hey man I just want to say that personally I love this idea. I think that a geographically centered league is absolutely the way to go. It just needs to be a package that can drive a significant media deal that keeps this West Coast-based conference at least competitive or equal to the Big12 and ACC. It's not going to be the SEC or the Big10, we all know that, but it has to have enough weight to keep this new conference in the same league as they are. Point blank: it either needs to start out with enough heavyweights to do that, or it needs to add only a few teams to leave room to add them in the future. That's why you won't get a full reverse merger of the MWC. |
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