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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Jan 10, 2024 18:18:52 GMT -8
Is it cut and dried legally that the Pac-2 would have to share incoming payments due as members of the Pac-12 with any new members of a rebuilt Pac-12? I mean, could they just decide to merge with the MWC as the new Pac but on the stipulation (agreed to by the MWC teams) that OSU and WSU get that incoming money? The money goes to the conference. It's up to the conference how it is disbursed. Yes, there is no fee if we go in a different direction. One has not yet emerged, nor is it close to emerging, so the two years with the MWC for football and WCC for everything else gives us some breathing room.
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Post by grayman on Jan 10, 2024 18:27:51 GMT -8
This seems really one-sided considering the Pac-2 is also paying a good amount of money for the scheduling alliance. Also, I'm sure certain MWC teams are overjoyed with the prospect of an exit fee of $17 million or $34 million plus a $5.5 million termination fee. Good move as far as self preservation but I don't believe the Pac-2 is going to just going to throw up their hands just yet. If this reading of that agreement is correct then Barnes agreed to an additional exit penalty (in addition to the 17/34) as a price for getting a schedule done. The MWC AD effectively held the scheduling hostage in return for an enhanced exit penalty to keep Barnes from rebuilding the Pac on any basis other than what to me is simply joining the MWC and calling it something else. Too high a price to pay IMO to avoid going out on the road and finding 7 games. Yeah, it's definitely too high a price IMO. I'm not sure it changes anything all that much, though. We already knew the prices were going to be pretty high if the Pac-2 made a move on MWC teams before 2027. Personally, I've kind of soured on the idea of the Pac-2 merging with some MWC teams and teams from the AAC or other G5 conferences. I don't think it would have enough of a positive impact to set it apart from just going ahead with a full merger with the MWC and that can be done without spending any money. What it could impact is if the ACC does come apart in the next year or two and Stanford, Cal and SMU come available. I guess you could add just two MWC teams and fill in elsewhere or something like that. None of the other possibilities are affected at all.
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Post by bvrbred on Jan 11, 2024 8:40:39 GMT -8
There is nothing in the AAC west of San Antonio and nothing in Conference USA west of New Mexico State. While there are programs in those conferences with higher national visibility, better football reputations, than the lower drawer MWC schools, I frankly don't see a Tulane or Cincinnati having interest in coming all the way out here for games. We would have to take enough teams back there to form an East Coast scheduling pod. Again, what's in it for them? And that, IMO, would be an extremely unstable situation, with them looking to break off at the first opportunity.
If we are forced to join the MWC (call it a reverse merger or whatever) it should be with conditions:
1. Football only 2. No more than 7 conference games 3. Abolish exit fees 4. Tiered payouts
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Post by Judge Smails on Jan 11, 2024 8:45:12 GMT -8
There is nothing in the AAC west of San Antonio and nothing in Conference USA west of New Mexico State. While there are programs in those conferences with higher national visibility, better football reputations, than the lower drawer MWC schools, I frankly don't see a Tulane or Cincinnati having interest in coming all the way out here for games. We would have to take enough teams back there to form an East Coast scheduling pod. Again, what's in it for them? And that, IMO, would be an extremely unstable situation, with them looking to break off at the first opportunity. If we are forced to join the MWC (call it a reverse merger or whatever) it should be with conditions: 1. Football only 2. No more than 7 conference games 3. Abolish exit fees 4. Tiered payouts Cincinnati is in the Big 12. They aren't going anywhere.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jan 11, 2024 9:54:22 GMT -8
I'm thinking this is what it looks like when a commissioner actually tries to keep their conference together. Too bad the Pac-12 didn't hire someone like that. If only the presidents of some of the finest academic institutions in America, likes of Stanford and and Cal, were as savvy as the Presidents of the likes of Boise State and Wyoming...
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Post by grayman on Jan 11, 2024 12:18:57 GMT -8
I really wonder what the Pac-2 leaders have actually meant by "rebuilding" the Pac-12. Did they mean that they would put a new conference together with the best possible teams under the circumstances? If so, that seems pretty unlikely at this point. Did they mean that they were going to just merge with the MWC all along? IMO, this is pretty unlikely and they've probably viewed this option as a last resort, mostly due to the high likelihood of having to accept a much lower level of income. I also don't see how anyone can see this option as a truly a rebuilt Pac-12 when it's OSU and WSU joining the MWC, no matter what label you put on it. You can call it the Pac-12 but the broadcast media companies are not going to see it that way. Or did the leaders of the Pac-2 basically use the terminology to be able to buy some time and to get that payday as well?
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Post by orangeattack on Jan 11, 2024 13:19:20 GMT -8
I really wonder what the Pac-2 leaders have actually meant by "rebuilding" the Pac-12. Did they mean that they would put a new conference together with the best possible teams under the circumstances? If so, that seems pretty unlikely at this point. Did they mean that they were going to just merge with the MWC all along? IMO, this is pretty unlikely and they've probably viewed this option as a last resort, mostly due to the high likelihood of having to accept a much lower level of income. I also don't see how anyone can see this option as a truly a rebuilt Pac-12 when it's OSU and WSU joining the MWC, no matter what label you put on it. You can call it the Pac-12 but the broadcast media companies are not going to see it that way. Or did the leaders of the Pac-2 basically use the terminology to be able to buy some time and to get that payday as well? I'm not sure I really see the complete roadblock issue here with the buyouts that others seem to be seeing. Is there anybody on this board that doesn't think Boise would happily have taken on $34M worth of debt at ANY MOMENT to join a P5 conference? Look at the cuts that Stanford and Cal were willing to take to get into the leaky, rickety lifeboat that the ACC was offering. I have no doubt that you would be able to get the same type of agreement from Boise State and San Diego State to escape the MWC. They take a reduced payout for a couple years to pay it back.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jan 11, 2024 13:32:00 GMT -8
I really wonder what the Pac-2 leaders have actually meant by "rebuilding" the Pac-12. Did they mean that they would put a new conference together with the best possible teams under the circumstances? If so, that seems pretty unlikely at this point. Did they mean that they were going to just merge with the MWC all along? IMO, this is pretty unlikely and they've probably viewed this option as a last resort, mostly due to the high likelihood of having to accept a much lower level of income. I also don't see how anyone can see this option as a truly a rebuilt Pac-12 when it's OSU and WSU joining the MWC, no matter what label you put on it. You can call it the Pac-12 but the broadcast media companies are not going to see it that way. Or did the leaders of the Pac-2 basically use the terminology to be able to buy some time and to get that payday as well? I'm not sure I really see the complete roadblock issue here with the buyouts that others seem to be seeing. Is there anybody on this board that doesn't think Boise would happily have taken on $34M worth of debt at ANY MOMENT to join a P5 conference? Look at the cuts that Stanford and Cal were willing to take to get into the leaky, rickety lifeboat that the ACC was offering. I have no doubt that you would be able to get the same type of agreement from Boise State and San Diego State to escape the MWC. They take a reduced payout for a couple years to pay it back. I have to agree here. To turn a phrase from Mike Vrabel, Boise state would cut of it's own dick to join a P5 conference. OSU/WSU do not have a P5 conference per se, but the opportunity to build one. Boise, Fresno, SDSU and UNLV for 100% certainty will pay money to be a part of something getting built. I don't think the amounts of money being quoted represent anything OTHER than what if forces is that OSU/WSU has definitive plans/commitments from others before tearing the MWC apart.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Jan 11, 2024 14:25:05 GMT -8
I'm not sure I really see the complete roadblock issue here with the buyouts that others seem to be seeing. Is there anybody on this board that doesn't think Boise would happily have taken on $34M worth of debt at ANY MOMENT to join a P5 conference? Look at the cuts that Stanford and Cal were willing to take to get into the leaky, rickety lifeboat that the ACC was offering. I have no doubt that you would be able to get the same type of agreement from Boise State and San Diego State to escape the MWC. They take a reduced payout for a couple years to pay it back. I have to agree here. To turn a phrase from Mike Vrabel, Boise state would cut of it's own dick to join a P5 conference. OSU/WSU do not have a P5 conference per se, but the opportunity to build one. Boise, Fresno, SDSU and UNLV for 100% certainty will pay money to be a part of something getting built.I don't think the amounts of money being quoted represent anything OTHER than what if forces is that OSU/WSU has definitive plans/commitments from others before tearing the MWC apart. I would put CSU and Wyoming in this category too. They do not want to be left behind.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jan 11, 2024 15:20:02 GMT -8
I really wonder what the Pac-2 leaders have actually meant by "rebuilding" the Pac-12. Did they mean that they would put a new conference together with the best possible teams under the circumstances? If so, that seems pretty unlikely at this point. Did they mean that they were going to just merge with the MWC all along? IMO, this is pretty unlikely and they've probably viewed this option as a last resort, mostly due to the high likelihood of having to accept a much lower level of income. I also don't see how anyone can see this option as a truly a rebuilt Pac-12 when it's OSU and WSU joining the MWC, no matter what label you put on it. You can call it the Pac-12 but the broadcast media companies are not going to see it that way. Or did the leaders of the Pac-2 basically use the terminology to be able to buy some time and to get that payday as well? I'm not sure I really see the complete roadblock issue here with the buyouts that others seem to be seeing. Is there anybody on this board that doesn't think Boise would happily have taken on $34M worth of debt at ANY MOMENT to join a P5 conference? Look at the cuts that Stanford and Cal were willing to take to get into the leaky, rickety lifeboat that the ACC was offering. I have no doubt that you would be able to get the same type of agreement from Boise State and San Diego State to escape the MWC. They take a reduced payout for a couple years to pay it back. SDSU was apparently ready to cut loose at 17 million until the MWC said it would be 34. I read somewhere right after everything fell apart and they were looking at options, that BSU would be interested in a rebuilt Pac and was would likely join if they could give a year notice to keep it at 17. I think 17 is doable by at least a few schools (if we have an attractive media deal lined up), but the 34 might be hard to stomach if they can time it right by giving a year's notice. That's got me thinking we can potentially hear things on the expansion front as early as July/August of this year for the 2025 season, or a year later for the following season. The MWC has pretty much the most restrictve buyout of the G5 conferences from what I've read, so there could be some others out there available if the Pac-2 decides to take the leap of faith.
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Post by orangeattack on Jan 11, 2024 15:49:20 GMT -8
I'm not sure I really see the complete roadblock issue here with the buyouts that others seem to be seeing. Is there anybody on this board that doesn't think Boise would happily have taken on $34M worth of debt at ANY MOMENT to join a P5 conference? Look at the cuts that Stanford and Cal were willing to take to get into the leaky, rickety lifeboat that the ACC was offering. I have no doubt that you would be able to get the same type of agreement from Boise State and San Diego State to escape the MWC. They take a reduced payout for a couple years to pay it back. SDSU was apparently ready to cut loose at 17 million until the MWC said it would be 34. I read somewhere right after everything fell apart and they were looking at options, that BSU would be interested in a rebuilt Pac and was would likely join if they could give a year notice to keep it at 17. I think 17 is doable by at least a few schools (if we have an attractive media deal lined up), but the 34 might be hard to stomach if they can time it right by giving a year's notice. That's got me thinking we can potentially hear things on the expansion front as early as July/August of this year for the 2025 season, or a year later for the following season. The MWC has pretty much the most restrictve buyout of the G5 conferences from what I've read, so there could be some others out there available if the Pac-2 decides to take the leap of faith. I would be surprised if Boise and Fresno were not part of the plan for a rebuilt Pac, and I'm sure they will get enough notice. But if a one time cost of an extra $17M is still not going to be a road block that keeps them from joining a P5 conference. The MWC buy outs won't keep them home. The ROI is still shorter than any other path.
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Post by orangeblood on Jan 11, 2024 15:58:17 GMT -8
What constitutes "acceptance" of an offer before August 1, 2025? Is it a verbal understanding, or is it ink on paper? Can the Pac-2 negotiate with schools before then, but not formalize an agreement until August 1, 2025. Is intent enough to constitute "acceptance" or does it have to be actual performance?
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Post by nexus73 on Jan 11, 2024 16:00:41 GMT -8
If we take the entire MWC, then no fees get paid. Get an entire conference for free, run the table and become the next Boise State!
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Post by grayman on Jan 11, 2024 16:02:09 GMT -8
I don't doubt that Boise State and San Diego State would be willing to try to make it work financially to get out of the MWC if there was an attractive enough option. The Pac-10 or Pac-9 was definitely attractive enough. A Pac-2 that adds Stanford, Cal and SMU is probably attractive enough. One big potential stumbling block for the Pac-2 in general is the conference status moving forward. IMO, it is imperative that the conference positions itself to become a power conference. There has been a lot of speculation by reporters working for actual media outlets that things are going to get much more difficult for the G5 and possibly even G5 schools that join power conferences. There's been a push to not allow those teams the $6 million CFP payout and keep it at $1 million (SMU is a team that could be on the short end here). I believe it has to be a unanimous vote to push this this through, so it might be a non-starter. There's also the power grab by the Big Ten and SEC that will have a flood-down effect on the rest of college football. CBS sports recently put out a story by Dennis Dodd regarding the potential dominance of the two conferences even with the 12-team playoff: "It is becoming increasingly apparent that -- even with the expanded 12-team playoff -- access will remain an issue for pretty much any school not in the Big Ten or SEC. CBS Sports ran the numbers. Conference realignment and consolidation will make Monday's result -- a conference being guaranteed a national championship before the ball is kicked -- more frequent. Using 2024 conference affiliations, one league would have been guaranteed a title prior to the CFP National Championship four times in the 10-year existence of the CFP. 2014: Oregon vs. Ohio State (Big Ten) 2017: Georgia vs. Alabama (SEC) 2021: Alabama vs. Georgia (SEC) 2023: Michigan vs. Washington (Big Ten) Expect it to happen more often. With 34 of the biggest, best brands now further combined in the Big Ten and SEC, those two conferences are almost certainly going to account for a majority of playoff berths going forward." I would say it will be pretty difficult for those other power conferences to get a team to the title game and it will still be difficult to get into the CFP at all. Then you get to the G5 schools. I would add that if the Big Ten and SEC reach the level of a two-conference superconference (and that's well on the way), that will change the face of college football significantly. It will create an extra tier. I've touched on this before, but what's very likely coming is the superconference or elite tier, the second tier with the Big 12, maybe the ACC, maybe the Pac. Then the group of whatever in the third tier.
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Post by orangeattack on Jan 11, 2024 16:06:40 GMT -8
If we take the entire MWC, then no fees get paid. Get an entire conference for free, run the table and become the next Boise State! I think it's starting to become clear that is never going to happen.
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