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Post by TheGlove on Oct 4, 2023 7:35:35 GMT -8
365 sports on PAC 2 to Big 12. Not happening Now that 365 Sports has weighed in on the topic, case closed. /s |
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Post by castorcanadensis on Oct 4, 2023 7:38:14 GMT -8
365 sports on PAC 2 to Big 12. Not happening never heard of these clowns either. I don’t believe anything these media YouTube channels claim. Lol Click bait. Their videos have hardly any views as well. |
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Post by castorcanadensis on Oct 4, 2023 7:40:05 GMT -8
BTW, the big 12 said the same thing about Colorado. Then boom Colorado entered. Will we join the big 12? Doubt it. But I don’t think these 3 know what is happening either. More crap at the fan. These three love to say “to my knowledge”. Hahahahaha
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Post by NativeBeav on Oct 4, 2023 7:43:28 GMT -8
365 sports on PAC 2 to Big 12. Not happening "The more things change, the more they stay the same" - Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr. It won't happen - until it does. I have no idea what will happen, and neither do they. What the leadership of the Big12 is saying today, and what they will say tomorrow, could be two different things. |
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Post by 93beav on Oct 4, 2023 7:53:12 GMT -8
I think the one thing most people on this thread are overlooking is the propensity for greed. The SEC and B1G do not want another power conference. Nor do they want G5 schools becoming more competitive and potentially taking a spot (s) from their members. They will stack the deck against this happening. You will have an occasional G5 team pop up here and there, but personally I can’t see much more than that. The trend (and their interest) is to fewer teams competing for the pot of gold, not more… I think everything you say is true, but I think their options are limited. With the way the CFP contract is structured, the PACX is written in as having "shares" in the whole affair, and requiring unanimous votes. At least for two years. Even if, and this is a big if, the SEC/B1G decided "Well, now is the time to separate" and go form their own arrangement with CFP for a big-boy-pants playoffs, they'd still have to find a way to dissolve the old contract. I'm sure everyone has plenty of lawyers on it. But given how the B1G knifed the PAC, I'm happy to spend a few of the $150 million setting up some of our own lawyers to look into it. The SEC...well...they consider themselves always the top dog. But I will give them this - they have always seemed to stick to regionality. They just had a tougher / better region for many years. |
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Post by 93beav on Oct 4, 2023 7:58:26 GMT -8
1) The MWC is one of the strongest of the G5 conferences most seasons. That may be true, but it is nowhere near the level of the power 5 conferences. 2) After merging, it likely would be the 5th strongest conference overall. Probably. And it would be nowhere near the level of the power 4. 3)Assuming it happened after this year, there's that 2 year grace period where the Pac wouldn't be demoted, and the league could actually bring in a couple/few strong new teams in addition to get to 16/18 teams, many from large market cities. Or OSU and WSU could go Pac-2 and build from there if they don't get into the Big 12. Bring in Boise State, San Diego State and a few others from the MWC and then go for schools like Memphis and Tulane. Maybe the ACC sheds a few schools that could be added eventually. West-east divisions. Get the best possible schools/programs possible. A big TV or even streaming deal is pretty unlikely if it's just OSU, WSU and the MWC. 4)The NCAA is going to have a tough time kicking the largest conference west of the Mississippi out of P5 status, leaving only the eastern US with "Power" conferences. It would destroy regionality, I'm not sure that would be thought of as a smart thing. TV and the power conferences will make the decisions. The NCAA is a joke. It will submit to its masters. I think in the end, we could eventually see a 16 team playoff. In theory, starting next season there could be a team or teams playing 4 playoff games. They might as well make it so there's no bye week for anyone, and to get to the finals all teams need to play 3 games to get there. At which point it could be a 6/10 or 7/9 format. From what I've read, there is very little interest in expanding from 12 teams, at least for the foreseeable future. Your response to number 3 is something I've thought is possible. As for a couple others where you bring up it'd be a weaker conference than the other 4 conferences, you are leaving out any room for improvement. The Pac 12 has had down years, the Big 12 has had bad years. I do not expect a newly reformed Pac to be gangbusters day one. The MWC schools have been living on 3-4 million buck media deals, this merger is not going to likely produce that kind of deal. There should be more money to work with, and it could be significantly more money than some here think, not 30 million a team, but not as low as some numbers I've seen thrown out there for a media deal. Add to that, they'll likely see more conference money outside the media deal than they currently see (they may get a share of that 360 payout we've been talking about). If these teams suddenly have an extra 8-10 million + each to invest in their programs they should probably improve. If Apple is in play and they offer a similar type contract (and I'm talking for significantly less than what was offered to the Pac a couple months ago) with the subscription bonus 50/50 split Apple offered gets reached, numbers could be significantly higher. You're selling the new conference short. Also, if TV still survives the next several years, it's going to want western audiences and more western based content than the few teams that left can provide. I'm really hoping Apple is still in play. Streaming could be a complete game changer over the next few years. With the subscription splits there really is no readily defined top limit on earnings, it could be very competitive with a couple of the P4 deals. This new conference is likely Apple’s last chance to get in the college game in any meaningful fashion for a number of years. I suspect the Pac schools that didn’t want that deal really blew it by turning it down. This is an argument that I think many people wave off and is a mistake. On the one hand, they say even with additional money, MWC members (all of them) will be woefully short, still can't compete, will just redirect money elsewhere, etc. On the other hand, they argue OSU or other P5 schools will only be able to get better and compete with more $$$. Will all MWC schools get better? Not at all. Do we need all MWC schools to get better? It would be great, but not necessary. Look at some of the lower rungs of B1G. What we need are 2-3 other schools to get much better so that our SOS and notoriety increase and thus more media exposure and securing respect as a P5. I continue to think that in the long run, it would give us even more leverage if there were a West and East pod or a North and South pod that spread out the exposure a bit more, this would help us. Pods, relegation amongst the pods, 1 cross-over game per year and 1 championship game between the pods. All circus tricks. But probably a good way to jumpstart Apple subscriptions, errr, I mean... |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Oct 4, 2023 9:19:31 GMT -8
Your response to number 3 is something I've thought is possible. As for a couple others where you bring up it'd be a weaker conference than the other 4 conferences, you are leaving out any room for improvement. The Pac 12 has had down years, the Big 12 has had bad years. I do not expect a newly reformed Pac to be gangbusters day one. The MWC schools have been living on 3-4 million buck media deals, this merger is not going to likely produce that kind of deal. There should be more money to work with, and it could be significantly more money than some here think, not 30 million a team, but not as low as some numbers I've seen thrown out there for a media deal. Add to that, they'll likely see more conference money outside the media deal than they currently see (they may get a share of that 360 payout we've been talking about). If these teams suddenly have an extra 8-10 million + each to invest in their programs they should probably improve. If Apple is in play and they offer a similar type contract (and I'm talking for significantly less than what was offered to the Pac a couple months ago) with the subscription bonus 50/50 split Apple offered gets reached, numbers could be significantly higher. You're selling the new conference short. Also, if TV still survives the next several years, it's going to want western audiences and more western based content than the few teams that left can provide. I'm really hoping Apple is still in play. Streaming could be a complete game changer over the next few years. With the subscription splits there really is no readily defined top limit on earnings, it could be very competitive with a couple of the P4 deals. This new conference is likely Apple’s last chance to get in the college game in any meaningful fashion for a number of years. I suspect the Pac schools that didn’t want that deal really blew it by turning it down. This is an argument that I think many people wave off and is a mistake. On the one hand, they say even with additional money, MWC members (all of them) will be woefully short, still can't compete, will just redirect money elsewhere, etc. On the other hand, they argue OSU or other P5 schools will only be able to get better and compete with more $$$. Will all MWC schools get better? Not at all. Do we need all MWC schools to get better? It would be great, but not necessary. Look at some of the lower rungs of B1G. What we need are 2-3 other schools to get much better so that our SOS and notoriety increase and thus more media exposure and securing respect as a P5. I continue to think that in the long run, it would give us even more leverage if there were a West and East pod or a North and South pod that spread out the exposure a bit more, this would help us. Pods, relegation amongst the pods, 1 cross-over game per year and 1 championship game between the pods. All circus tricks. But probably a good way to jumpstart Apple subscriptions, errr, I mean... These MWC teams would have better recruiting exposure just by being in the newly rebuilt PAC, especially if it remains in P5 designation. Getting an extra 8-10 million or more would be huge for them. Many people ignore the fact that several of these schools are every bit as big as OSU and uo, and in bigger cities and metropolitan areas than OSU and uo. They will likely have more cash to work with than they could previously imagine. They can become stronger. It’ll probably take a couple years, but I bet it happens. I could go on about the possibilities of streaming, but that’s been stated plenty of times. It could be surprisingly successful. |
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Post by grayman on Oct 4, 2023 9:59:35 GMT -8
This is an argument that I think many people wave off and is a mistake. On the one hand, they say even with additional money, MWC members (all of them) will be woefully short, still can't compete, will just redirect money elsewhere, etc. On the other hand, they argue OSU or other P5 schools will only be able to get better and compete with more $$$. Will all MWC schools get better? Not at all. Do we need all MWC schools to get better? It would be great, but not necessary. Look at some of the lower rungs of B1G. What we need are 2-3 other schools to get much better so that our SOS and notoriety increase and thus more media exposure and securing respect as a P5. I continue to think that in the long run, it would give us even more leverage if there were a West and East pod or a North and South pod that spread out the exposure a bit more, this would help us. Pods, relegation amongst the pods, 1 cross-over game per year and 1 championship game between the pods. All circus tricks. But probably a good way to jumpstart Apple subscriptions, errr, I mean... These MWC teams would have better recruiting exposure just by being in the newly rebuilt PAC, especially if it remains in P5 designation. Getting an extra 8-10 million or more would be huge for them. Many people ignore the fact that several of these schools are every bit as big as OSU and uo, and in bigger cities and metropolitan areas than OSU and uo. They will likely have more cash to work with than they could previously imagine. They can become stronger. It’ll probably take a couple years, but I bet it happens. I could go on about the possibilities of streaming, but that’s been stated plenty of times. It could be surprisingly successful. OSU and WSU merging with the MWC is not going to make much difference from a national standpoint. It just won't. Nobody is going to say, wow, look at that new and improved MWC! Let's make sure it's a power conference like us! Not gonna happen. Maybe the Pac name enables a power status for a time but that's it. What I think is being overlooked here is what is happening with the soon to be power 4 and how it relates to a possible Pac-MWC conference. If you think that some more money is going to suddenly bump up the MWC teams, consider that the P4 will be raking in much, much more money -- and not just through TV and streaming contracts. Those conferences are pretty much guaranteed (about as close as you can get) what will be CFP money that is estimated to hit about $320 million per team. And some of these conferences will get two teams in. You might say there's a good chance that the Pac-MWC will get a team in as well. Yes, it looks that way. For a time. The powers that be are eventually going to make sure that window is going to come as close to closed as they possibly can. Not fair? None of this is and it won't be. Just look at our current situation. We can be angry about all this big money stuff, but you can't dismiss it. This is a boiling down to the college football "super conferences" and it is fully supported and enabled by TV, etc. The big numbers will get bigger and bigger. And the gap will continue to widen. All this hope that streaming will be the Pac-MWC savior is mostly misguided, IMO. Streaming probably is the future. But that future is not likely to come about to a high degree for a decade at least. Streaming services, with the noteable exception of Apple, are not making money. So the hope really rests on one streaming service. One that was interested in the Pac-12 even without USC and USC. But there's no indication that Apple is nearly as jazzed about the MWC with OSU and WSU. And even if a deal is reached, it is not going to be close to what Apple was willing to do with the Pac-10. AppleTV is estimated to have $2.2 billion in revenue in 2023. If it is willing to make a hefty deal with any conference, it will be a power one at some point. IMO, the Pac-MWC teams would be extremely lucky to get $10 million a year. Much more likely would be in the $7-8 million range. And there's no good way to know ahead of time, so there's a lot of fingers getting crossed if OSU goes that route. |
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Post by 93beav on Oct 4, 2023 12:16:59 GMT -8
These MWC teams would have better recruiting exposure just by being in the newly rebuilt PAC, especially if it remains in P5 designation. Getting an extra 8-10 million or more would be huge for them. Many people ignore the fact that several of these schools are every bit as big as OSU and uo, and in bigger cities and metropolitan areas than OSU and uo. They will likely have more cash to work with than they could previously imagine. They can become stronger. It’ll probably take a couple years, but I bet it happens. I could go on about the possibilities of streaming, but that’s been stated plenty of times. It could be surprisingly successful. OSU and WSU merging with the MWC is not going to make much difference from a national standpoint. It just won't. Nobody is going to say, wow, look at that new and improved MWC! Let's make sure it's a power conference like us! Not gonna happen. Maybe the Pac name enables a power status for a time but that's it. What I think is being overlooked here is what is happening with the soon to be power 4 and how it relates to a possible Pac-MWC conference. If you think that some more money is going to suddenly bump up the MWC teams, consider that the P4 will be raking in much, much more money -- and not just through TV and streaming contracts. Those conferences are pretty much guaranteed (about as close as you can get) what will be CFP money that is estimated to hit about $320 million per team. And some of these conferences will get two teams in. You might say there's a good chance that the Pac-MWC will get a team in as well. Yes, it looks that way. For a time. The powers that be are eventually going to make sure that window is going to come as close to closed as they possibly can. Not fair? None of this is and it won't be. Just look at our current situation. We can be angry about all this big money stuff, but you can't dismiss it. This is a boiling down to the college football "super conferences" and it is fully supported and enabled by TV, etc. The big numbers will get bigger and bigger. And the gap will continue to widen. All this hope that streaming will be the Pac-MWC savior is mostly misguided, IMO. Streaming probably is the future. But that future is not likely to come about to a high degree for a decade at least. Streaming services, with the noteable exception of Apple, are not making money. So the hope really rests on one streaming service. One that was interested in the Pac-12 even without USC and USC. But there's no indication that Apple is nearly as jazzed about the MWC with OSU and WSU. And even if a deal is reached, it is not going to be close to what Apple was willing to do with the Pac-10. AppleTV is estimated to have $2.2 billion in revenue in 2023. If it is willing to make a hefty deal with any conference, it will be a power one at some point. IMO, the Pac-MWC teams would be extremely lucky to get $10 million a year. Much more likely would be in the $7-8 million range. And there's no good way to know ahead of time, so there's a lot of fingers getting crossed if OSU goes that route. Again, this goes back to what I've been posting elsewhere. Everybody is chasing the big dogs, who we keep saying have more money. Ok, well, you're not going to turn OSU into Alabama (thankfully for a few reasons). So you either have to keep playing the game, or change the game and take a chance. You need to find a way to either dance with a different suitor or increase eyeballs or...if you go with Apple...increase subscriptions. Originally, I thought relegation was kind of a circus trick for football. But the more I think about it, the more I think certain games might hold more interest across a variety of teams, vs just the two playing. I also think going with Apple is bold and risky at the same time. But again, you don't have to worry about constant eyeballs, you just need to hook those eyeballs with enough interest once to invest. I think for the next 2-3 years, the B1G and Big12 will see increased viewership. TV numbers, ratings, etc. will actually go up. After that's over, a new reality sets in and when programs like Nebraska continue to get pummeled, I think you'll see even their fans drop off a bit. And if conferences like the Big12 are edged out - getting let's say one team in vs 2-3 from each of the SEC & B1G, wouldn't they begin to care less? They'd be at...the same level as the MWC/G5. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Oct 4, 2023 12:56:02 GMT -8
These MWC teams would have better recruiting exposure just by being in the newly rebuilt PAC, especially if it remains in P5 designation. Getting an extra 8-10 million or more would be huge for them. Many people ignore the fact that several of these schools are every bit as big as OSU and uo, and in bigger cities and metropolitan areas than OSU and uo. They will likely have more cash to work with than they could previously imagine. They can become stronger. It’ll probably take a couple years, but I bet it happens. I could go on about the possibilities of streaming, but that’s been stated plenty of times. It could be surprisingly successful. OSU and WSU merging with the MWC is not going to make much difference from a national standpoint. It just won't. Nobody is going to say, wow, look at that new and improved MWC! Let's make sure it's a power conference like us! Not gonna happen. Maybe the Pac name enables a power status for a time but that's it. What I think is being overlooked here is what is happening with the soon to be power 4 and how it relates to a possible Pac-MWC conference. If you think that some more money is going to suddenly bump up the MWC teams, consider that the P4 will be raking in much, much more money -- and not just through TV and streaming contracts. Those conferences are pretty much guaranteed (about as close as you can get) what will be CFP money that is estimated to hit about $320 million per team. And some of these conferences will get two teams in. You might say there's a good chance that the Pac-MWC will get a team in as well. Yes, it looks that way. For a time. The powers that be are eventually going to make sure that window is going to come as close to closed as they possibly can. Not fair? None of this is and it won't be. Just look at our current situation. We can be angry about all this big money stuff, but you can't dismiss it. This is a boiling down to the college football "super conferences" and it is fully supported and enabled by TV, etc. The big numbers will get bigger and bigger. And the gap will continue to widen. All this hope that streaming will be the Pac-MWC savior is mostly misguided, IMO. Streaming probably is the future. But that future is not likely to come about to a high degree for a decade at least. Streaming services, with the noteable exception of Apple, are not making money. So the hope really rests on one streaming service. One that was interested in the Pac-12 even without USC and USC. But there's no indication that Apple is nearly as jazzed about the MWC with OSU and WSU. And even if a deal is reached, it is not going to be close to what Apple was willing to do with the Pac-10. AppleTV is estimated to have $2.2 billion in revenue in 2023. If it is willing to make a hefty deal with any conference, it will be a power one at some point. IMO, the Pac-MWC teams would be extremely lucky to get $10 million a year. Much more likely would be in the $7-8 million range. And there's no good way to know ahead of time, so there's a lot of fingers getting crossed if OSU goes that route. As of today's college football rankings, the ONLY future Big 12 ranked team is Utah. Future Pac whatever teams WSU, OSU and Fresno State are all ranked, and two of them are ranked above Utah. And you say the P4 Conference Big 12 is so much more powerful than the future PAC whatever? Neither of us can guarantee the future, but this year's standings indicate the future Pac might not be without national relevance. You later mention the 320 million, yet conveniently forget that the Pac whatever, as a full size conference, would be locked into that for at least 2 years. Also, that 320 million is supposedly per conference, not per team. That money is coming to the PAC if it exists as a full sized conference next year, but my bet is it probably would get shut down if it's just a Pac 2 and there is scuttlebutt that the other conferences won't tolerate a 2 team conference getting the benefits of a full conference. That 320 million, I believe. is contracted to come to each of the P5 conferences, not based on how many get into the playoffs. This whole thread is predicated on what you call the "smoke" of one podcast that has little credibility, while another with more credibility (so far) says that if the Pac whatever exists as a full sized conference it's gonna be a P5 conference for at least 2 years because it apparently has already been discussed and the powers that be decided to leave it alone for now if the Pac rebuilds. After that period, some things change on the media money end of things and things could change, but if the Pac expands after this season and next year has 3 teams in the top 25 while the Big 12 only has one... the argument that the Power 4 are "oh so powerful" and the Pac can never be, completely evaporates. On the streaming thing, linear tv is in trouble. Two to three years ago nobody thought it would be, and now streaming is actually bigger than it. ESPN, once a cash cow, has been losing money lately (although there's recently been a huge boost from the whole Prime/Colorado thing that they are milking right now), but I don't know how other sports networks are doing. My guess is they are not doing fantastically, and it will get worse as streaming grows. You say it'll take at least a decade for streaming to get to a high degree (whatever that means), but 9 years ago there was no such thing as an Apple smart watch, and now you can watch that streaming content you say won't be ready for at least a decade on one. Apple's total revenues last year were just under 400 billion bucks, and for the 12 month period ending June 30th of this year they spent just under 30 billion on R&D. Apple plays the long game, they have supposedly been spending a billion a year or more on developing a car, one that won't be out for at least another 3 years and has been worked on since 2014. On the streaming end of things, Apple spent 200 million for 10 HOURS of content on Invasion, it got horrible reviews, and they're doubling down on this this year and could be spending as much or more on this season. Apple is willing to spend money on things it believes in, and streaming is something they believe in and they apparently want college football - and NO P4 media contracts expire before 2030 (Big 10- 2030, Big 12- 2031, SEC- 2034 and ACC- 2035). This is pretty much their only/best chance to get in "cheap" and prove to the others that streaming works and why they should choose Apple. Contrary to what you imply, Apple IS rumored to be interested in a rebuilt Pac whatever, but we're going to hear very little until the whole set of legal issues with rebuilding the Pac is settled. We know that Apple offered 25 mil a team to the Pac 9, that's 225 million, maybe more if Apple expected the conference to expand back to 10 or 12 schools. This year's PAC is definitely stronger than next years, but next year's Pac very well could be considered stronger than next year's Big 12. For those who like to use metro area populations as a litmus test, I just looked it up on google. The Pac 9 metro areas they list add up to roughly 20 million people, the future Pac 14 (if we take all the MWC football schools) is roughly 17.2 million. That's not that much smaller, and Fort Collins was it's own metro area, no Denver counted. I fully expect Apple might offer less, for more content, than earlier, but 14 teams times 8 million max you are predicting is roughly only half of what they already offered - I don't expect it to drop that much. If it does, that likely drops the break even point on the subscriptions and the 50/50 split thereafter as well, which means more money for everyone after they meet that mark. I know there are people who think we must join the Big 12 or die, and the rebuilt Pac consisting of the Pac 2 and the MWC teams cannot succeed. I think they are wrong. We're both free to believe what we wish, neither can be proved. Those outcomes are not necessarily the only possible ones. |
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Post by grayman on Oct 4, 2023 12:57:51 GMT -8
OSU and WSU merging with the MWC is not going to make much difference from a national standpoint. It just won't. Nobody is going to say, wow, look at that new and improved MWC! Let's make sure it's a power conference like us! Not gonna happen. Maybe the Pac name enables a power status for a time but that's it. What I think is being overlooked here is what is happening with the soon to be power 4 and how it relates to a possible Pac-MWC conference. If you think that some more money is going to suddenly bump up the MWC teams, consider that the P4 will be raking in much, much more money -- and not just through TV and streaming contracts. Those conferences are pretty much guaranteed (about as close as you can get) what will be CFP money that is estimated to hit about $320 million per team. And some of these conferences will get two teams in. You might say there's a good chance that the Pac-MWC will get a team in as well. Yes, it looks that way. For a time. The powers that be are eventually going to make sure that window is going to come as close to closed as they possibly can. Not fair? None of this is and it won't be. Just look at our current situation. We can be angry about all this big money stuff, but you can't dismiss it. This is a boiling down to the college football "super conferences" and it is fully supported and enabled by TV, etc. The big numbers will get bigger and bigger. And the gap will continue to widen. All this hope that streaming will be the Pac-MWC savior is mostly misguided, IMO. Streaming probably is the future. But that future is not likely to come about to a high degree for a decade at least. Streaming services, with the noteable exception of Apple, are not making money. So the hope really rests on one streaming service. One that was interested in the Pac-12 even without USC and USC. But there's no indication that Apple is nearly as jazzed about the MWC with OSU and WSU. And even if a deal is reached, it is not going to be close to what Apple was willing to do with the Pac-10. AppleTV is estimated to have $2.2 billion in revenue in 2023. If it is willing to make a hefty deal with any conference, it will be a power one at some point. IMO, the Pac-MWC teams would be extremely lucky to get $10 million a year. Much more likely would be in the $7-8 million range. And there's no good way to know ahead of time, so there's a lot of fingers getting crossed if OSU goes that route. Again, this goes back to what I've been posting elsewhere. Everybody is chasing the big dogs, who we keep saying have more money. Ok, well, you're not going to turn OSU into Alabama (thankfully for a few reasons). So you either have to keep playing the game, or change the game and take a chance. You need to find a way to either dance with a different suitor or increase eyeballs or...if you go with Apple...increase subscriptions. Originally, I thought relegation was kind of a circus trick for football. But the more I think about it, the more I think certain games might hold more interest across a variety of teams, vs just the two playing. I also think going with Apple is bold and risky at the same time. But again, you don't have to worry about constant eyeballs, you just need to hook those eyeballs with enough interest once to invest. I think for the next 2-3 years, the B1G and Big12 will see increased viewership. TV numbers, ratings, etc. will actually go up. After that's over, a new reality sets in and when programs like Nebraska continue to get pummeled, I think you'll see even their fans drop off a bit. And if conferences like the Big12 are edged out - getting let's say one team in vs 2-3 from each of the SEC & B1G, wouldn't they begin to care less? They'd be at...the same level as the MWC/G5. I think that there's a lot of ifs and buts that go along with a Pac-MWC merger and not a few that I view as longshots to happen in a way that's going to be highly beneficial to OSU and WSU over the long term. That's why I think it's so important that if there's no Big 12 or other power conference willing to come calling for the two schools for the new Pac to be a strong as possible and not just a merger with the MWC. I just don't think a good broadcasting rights deal will be forthcoming. To me, the best outcome by far is to get into the Big 12. Even if college football ends up as one conference of elites, that's probably not going to happen for quite some time. I disagree that there's going to be a lot of change of any notable sort in the near future in the college football landscape once the Pac-2 wind up wherever they wind up. Maybe some teams leave the ACC but I'm not as convinced that the conference will implode just because the Pac-12 did and I think that narrative is pushed by people who want to add ACC teams to their power conferences. |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 4, 2023 13:05:34 GMT -8
No matter how many words folks post the go to the B12 always centers on the same group/combo of made up fallacies...
There are "ifs ands and buts" with the merger. Yet the B12 actually saying they are done means it's still possible. OK...
That the thoughts of every other conference concerning this issue has the B12 as the option. Like anyone here knows or has read any news of those other conferences officially weighing in on wanting just a P4, or anything else mentioned.
OSU will thrive and be getting national exposure in the B12 despite all the evidence to the contrary. The B12 barely hung on and look who they added, G5 teams to survive. The B10 also rans are practice fodder for the top 5 teams and never heard from unless they get a lucky TV spot vs one of the Top 5.
MWC teams despite more revenue will never improve enough and the merged conference will always be the weakest in the P5. Like the Pac12 was for a run of several years? And, do people actually look at the "new" B12 and see without Texas/OK they are absolutely nothing special unless you are talking hoops... and that is an extremely top heavy conversation too.
WSU/OSU, SD St, Fresno St, BSU could all grow and thrive and compete with the top of the new B12. Who exactly frightens you? Utah might move directly to the top and I'll take on Utah any time. It gets more and more hilarious that all these "known" things will happen... B12 positive... merger negative.
I'd say IF November 14th actually gives us any definitive answer/direction there will be some news that has already been planned and ready to roll out. But, no matter the Nov 14th news, it will unfortunately continue to be a battle in the courts. Goody...
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Post by grayman on Oct 4, 2023 13:56:25 GMT -8
OSU and WSU merging with the MWC is not going to make much difference from a national standpoint. It just won't. Nobody is going to say, wow, look at that new and improved MWC! Let's make sure it's a power conference like us! Not gonna happen. Maybe the Pac name enables a power status for a time but that's it. What I think is being overlooked here is what is happening with the soon to be power 4 and how it relates to a possible Pac-MWC conference. If you think that some more money is going to suddenly bump up the MWC teams, consider that the P4 will be raking in much, much more money -- and not just through TV and streaming contracts. Those conferences are pretty much guaranteed (about as close as you can get) what will be CFP money that is estimated to hit about $320 million per team. And some of these conferences will get two teams in. You might say there's a good chance that the Pac-MWC will get a team in as well. Yes, it looks that way. For a time. The powers that be are eventually going to make sure that window is going to come as close to closed as they possibly can. Not fair? None of this is and it won't be. Just look at our current situation. We can be angry about all this big money stuff, but you can't dismiss it. This is a boiling down to the college football "super conferences" and it is fully supported and enabled by TV, etc. The big numbers will get bigger and bigger. And the gap will continue to widen. All this hope that streaming will be the Pac-MWC savior is mostly misguided, IMO. Streaming probably is the future. But that future is not likely to come about to a high degree for a decade at least. Streaming services, with the noteable exception of Apple, are not making money. So the hope really rests on one streaming service. One that was interested in the Pac-12 even without USC and USC. But there's no indication that Apple is nearly as jazzed about the MWC with OSU and WSU. And even if a deal is reached, it is not going to be close to what Apple was willing to do with the Pac-10. AppleTV is estimated to have $2.2 billion in revenue in 2023. If it is willing to make a hefty deal with any conference, it will be a power one at some point. IMO, the Pac-MWC teams would be extremely lucky to get $10 million a year. Much more likely would be in the $7-8 million range. And there's no good way to know ahead of time, so there's a lot of fingers getting crossed if OSU goes that route. As of today's college football rankings, the ONLY future Big 12 ranked team is Utah. Future Pac whatever teams WSU, OSU and Fresno State are all ranked, and two of them are ranked above Utah. And you say the P4 Conference Big 12 is so much more powerful than the future PAC whatever? Neither of us can guarantee the future, but this year's standings indicate the future Pac might not be without national relevance. So OSU and WSU would strengthen the Big 12, right? None of this is really about the strength of football or athletics programs, though.
You later mention the 320 million, yet conveniently forget that the Pac whatever, as a full size conference, would be locked into that for at least 2 years. Also, that 320 million is supposedly per conference, not per team. That money is coming to the PAC if it exists as a full sized conference next year, but my bet is it probably would get shut down if it's just a Pac 2 and there is scuttlebutt that the other conferences won't tolerate a 2 team conference getting the benefits of a full conference. That 320 million, I believe. is contracted to come to each of the P5 conferences, not based on how many get into the playoffs. No, I did not conveniently forget. Quote: "Those conferences are pretty much guaranteed (about as close as you can get) what will be CFP money that is estimated to hit about $320 million per team. And some of these conferences will get two teams in. You might say there's a good chance that the Pac-MWC will get a team in as well. Yes, it looks that way. For a time. The powers that be are eventually going to make sure that window is going to come as close to closed as they possibly can. Not fair? None of this is and it won't be. Just look at our current situation."This whole thread is predicated on what you call the "smoke" of one podcast that has little credibility, while another with more credibility (so far) says that if the Pac whatever exists as a full sized conference it's gonna be a P5 conference for at least 2 years because it apparently has already been discussed and the powers that be decided to leave it alone for now if the Pac rebuilds. After that period, some things change on the media money end of things and things could change, but if the Pac expands after this season and next year has 3 teams in the top 25 while the Big 12 only has one... the argument that the Power 4 are "oh so powerful" and the Pac can never be, completely evaporates. No, I did not. I never mentioned that podcast in the OP. Or any other podcast. It was mentioned by other posters. The OP was about seeing a bunch of posts on X about OSU and WSU going to the Big 12. I never said those posters were right.On the streaming thing, linear tv is in trouble. Two to three years ago nobody thought it would be, and now streaming is actually bigger than it. ESPN, once a cash cow, has been losing money lately (although there's recently been a huge boost from the whole Prime/Colorado thing that they are milking right now), but I don't know how other sports networks are doing. My guess is they are not doing fantastically, and it will get worse as streaming grows. You say it'll take at least a decade for streaming to get to a high degree (whatever that means), but 9 years ago there was no such thing as an Apple smart watch, and now you can watch that streaming content you say won't be ready for at least a decade on one. Yes, linear TV is losing viewership and streaming is the future of "TV" watching, IMO. But it's not going to happen nearly as quickly as some people seem to think. Streaming services have not yet been profitable, with the exception of Apple TV. ESPN is in trouble because Disney is losing money. ESPN is still profitable.Apple's total revenues last year were just under 400 billion bucks, and for the 12 month period ending June 30th of this year they spent just under 30 billion on R&D. Apple plays the long game, they have supposedly been spending a billion a year or more on developing a car, one that won't be out for at least another 3 years and has been worked on since 2014. On the streaming end of things, Apple spent 200 million for 10 HOURS of content on Invasion, it got horrible reviews, and they're doubling down on this this year and could be spending as much or more on this season. Apple is willing to spend money on things it believes in, and streaming is something they believe in and they apparently want college football - and NO P4 media contracts expire before 2030 (Big 10- 2030, Big 12- 2031, SEC- 2034 and ACC- 2035). This is pretty much their only/best chance to get in "cheap" and prove to the others that streaming works and why they should choose Apple. Contrary to what you imply, Apple IS rumored to be interested in a rebuilt Pac whatever, but we're going to hear very little until the whole set of legal issues with rebuilding the Pac is settled. Agree that Apple is supporting Apple TV and Apple TV has an estimated $2.2 billion profit for 2023 and had a $1.5 billion profit in 2022. I agree that Apple TV wants to get into college football but I'm not so convinced that it is nearly as inclined to jump on making any kind of big deal with a Pac-2/MWC conference. I wouldn't be surprised that a deal happens but I just don't think OSU fans are going to be all that excited about the numbers.We know that Apple offered 25 mil a team to the Pac 9, that's 225 million, maybe more if Apple expected the conference to expand back to 10 or 12 schools. This year's PAC is definitely stronger than next years, but next year's Pac very well could be considered stronger than next year's Big 12. For those who like to use metro area populations as a litmus test, I just looked it up on google. The Pac 9 metro areas they list add up to roughly 20 million people, the future Pac 14 (if we take all the MWC football schools) is roughly 17.2 million. That's not that much smaller, and Fort Collins was it's own metro area, no Denver counted. I fully expect Apple might offer less, for more content, than earlier, but 14 teams times 8 million max you are predicting is roughly only half of what they already offered - I don't expect it to drop that much. If it does, that likely drops the break even point on the subscriptions and the 50/50 split thereafter as well, which means more money for everyone after they meet that mark. Apple TV won't offer $25 million per team to a Pac-2/MWC conference. IMO It will be much lower and depend more on subscription sales. The only reason this sounds good now is that OSU and WSU are currently without a home.I know there are people who think we must join the Big 12 or die, and the rebuilt Pac consisting of the Pac 2 and the MWC teams cannot succeed. I think they are wrong. We're both free to believe what we wish, neither can be proved. Those outcomes are not necessarily the only possible ones.
No, OSU won't die no matter what happens. And the Pac-2/MWC will do fine compared to non-power conferences. I just think OSU and WSU can do better, whether it's as members of the Big 12 or making something happen with a ton of assets should they actually receive them. If neither scenario comes to pass, then the only option that makes sense is the Pac-2/MWC. |
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Post by Dave86 on Oct 4, 2023 20:34:42 GMT -8
365 Sports claims to have the Baylor Athletic Director on the phone.
Regarding Oregon State and Washington State joining the Big-12, "Have they been in any way shape or form in conversations with the Big 12?"
Baylor AD: "No, not right now"
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Post by castorcanadensis on Oct 4, 2023 20:42:58 GMT -8
365 Sports claims to have the Baylor Athletic Director on the phone. Regarding Oregon State and Washington State joining the Big-12, "Have they been in any way shape or form in conversations with the Big 12?" Baylor AD: "No, not right now" Why would OSU and WSU leave before we find out what happens in court. If we both leave all 12 get the money. Maybe the pac-2 stays together for 1 more year and then we can take all the assets and move to big 12. |
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