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Post by 93beav on Aug 8, 2023 15:41:52 GMT -8
Apologies for the long post... I really like, although it is probably false, the idea around SDSU pulling "the best" of the PAC, MWC and AAC together. You can go one of two ways - you can go hyper-regional, try to build rivalries, etc. which is good for the sport and the fans, but may limit visibility and revenue or you can go geography-be-damned which can bring wider visibility, more revenue but also carries the huge travel burden in terms of cost and mental stability of the athletes. Or........ I believe that the two magic numbers are 8 and 10 (or maybe 12 depending upon how you look at it). You need 8 teams to qualify as a valid FBS conference and retain the auto-bid, although they may vote that away from the PAC soon. If you wanted to do divisions, you need at least 10. The core 4: OSU WSU Stanford Cal We will need not just good teams, but more importantly teams that have the ability to be self-sufficient. Donors with deep pockets who can build or buy top teams to get national notice and therefore get the conference national notice. The idea is to get enough visibility to at LEAST take away the MWC time slots at renewal time and maybe even make a charge for other packages that will be available in a few years. We also want to get schools that have all sports so our teams have someone to play. Yes, you could add Gonzaga as basketball only, once you've fulfilled the 8/10 rule. If 8 teams is the goal, I say add these: SMU - athletics budget of ~$70 million
- #5 tv market (yes, highly fractionalized)
- 72 in research
- $10 million dollar exit fee (AAC)
- has full sports
SDSU- athletics budget of ~$60 million
- #30 tv market
- 178 in research (R2 but going for R1 by 2025)
- $34 million dollar exit fee (MWC)
- has full sports
CSU - athletics budget of ~$55 million
- #16 tv market
- 151 research
- $34 million dollar exit fee (MWC)
- has full sports
UTSA - athletics budget of ~$40 million
- #31 tv market
- R1 research
- A downside is they are just joining the AAC. $10 million dollar exit fee (AAC)
- has full sports
If 10 (2 divisions of 5)... Tulane (or as sub for Stanford in 8) - athletics budget of ~$50 million
- Top 2% of universities nationwide in terms of research
- #50 tv market
- $10 million dollar exit fee (AAC)
Memphis - athlethics budget of ~$62 million
- research rank of 218
- #52 tv market
- $10 million dollar exit fee (AAC)
Adding Tulane and Memphis gives you one division of SMU, UTSA, Tulane, Memphis and a very unfortunate CSU. This gets you regionality, building rivalries, but also 1-2 cross-division games a year for national exposure. Possible additions or subs... Possible - UNLV Captures #40 - Las Vegas. Athletics budget of $47 million. R1 Research institution. Bogged down by $34 million exit fee (MWC) Possible - Fresno St (or as a sub for Cal) - athletics budget of around $40-$45 million, #53 tv market (Fresno-Visalia). #374 in research? I don't believe Fresno and research is possible. $34 million exit fee (MWC) Possible - Boise St? Good athletics budget, good budget sources (lots of self-funding vs subsidies). Research/academics not great, only captures the #98 TV market with Boise. $34 million exit fee (MWC) No baseball Possible - UNR? Doesn't have sound funding(  ), 139th in country in research. Does potentially capture some of Sacramento, but is not the prime player. $34 million exit fee (MWC) Possible - Another CST team? For TV deals, you're going to have to see if ESPN (who has low night inventory) will pay a couple million for a late night game a week. Check the CW, as they were looking to double-header the AAC 2nd/3rd tier games you get. HBO MAX has a new sports tier that just bought MLB playoffs and is looking for heavy diversification. Then layer that all with some streaming option that is subscription-dependent, if that's still availble. I'm not talking $25 million, that's crazy, I'm talking $10-15 million. And then give away a subscription with every person who becomes part of the alumni network. Make each school responsible for their share of, let's say, 1 million subscribers. Maybe even pay schools more % of the increased revenue based upon subscriptions sold. You just need to maintain exposure and survivability for all sports for a few years to see what re-alignment brings again. |
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Post by RenoBeaver on Aug 8, 2023 16:00:39 GMT -8
Throw academics out the window. Proven flop in the modern college football landscape.
Absolutely on Fresno (Sac TV market is 20th and Fresno is generally included there with Stockton and Modesto). Absolutely Boise as they are one of top 25ish programs in the nation the past 20 years. In fact the most success of any other team in this new conference.
I'd take Reno too for a natural rival with UNLV and it is centrally located with international airport. UNR has a decent hoops program and relatively recent success in football. Greater reno/tahoe area has population of 500K and most are wolfpack fans. Their football stadium royally sucks but they have an awesome hoops arena.
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Post by seastape on Aug 8, 2023 16:04:54 GMT -8
To dissolve the conference, I think the Moutain West has a rule (like all(?) conferences) that it takes a certain amount of teams to vote to dissolve the conference get it done without penalty to the teams that want to leave. I say we take that number of teams from the MWC and add them to the Pac. If the MWC has some sort of breakdown in which they wish to remain loyal, then take them all.
I don't like the idea of adding Central/Eastern time zone schools from the G5. The contract money won't be worth it and it will put a burden on our athletes, to whom I would like to remain loyal.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Aug 8, 2023 16:13:17 GMT -8
I'd be cool with taking all the MWC teams under the Pac Whatever umbrella. At that point you'd have a complete regional conference with 12/14 teams.
Try to get that Apple deal back, maybe a slightly lower base but with the exact same escalators (eyeballs is eyeballs) where 1.7 million total gets each team to 31.7 and more gets more. Make sure it'll honor terms with more teams then find 2/4 (depending on what the Bay Area teams do) more teams, and be picky) to get to 16.
Most of the MWC teams have been bowling recently. Cat say that about som big conference teams.
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Post by grayman on Aug 8, 2023 16:21:06 GMT -8
Pretty sure Stanford and Cal are not going to be in the "Core 4."
There's a lot to unpack as far as making anything involving MWC teams work.
To me, if the Big-12 turns out to be a no-go and there's no $420-million pot of gold at the end of the rainbow (which could be leveraged into some sort of merger), then WSU and OSU will most likely join the MWC as "regular" members.
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Post by 93beav on Aug 8, 2023 16:27:12 GMT -8
To dissolve the conference, I think the Moutain West has a rule (like all(?) conferences) that it takes a certain amount of teams to vote to dissolve the conference get it done without penalty to the teams that want to leave. I say we take that number of teams from the MWC and add them to the Pac. If the MWC has some sort of breakdown in which they wish to remain loyal, then take them all. I don't like the idea of adding Central/Eastern time zone schools from the G5. The contract money won't be worth it and it will put a burden on our athletes, to whom I would like to remain loyal. In a divisional situation, the athletes would only travel to Central/Eastern 1-2 times a year. Outside of OOC games they may schedule, of course. |
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cake
Sophomore
Posts: 1,598 
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Post by cake on Aug 8, 2023 16:28:50 GMT -8
Stanford and Cal want academics. If they move to the ACC, that breaks up the ACC.
I think they'll go Big 10 when all is said and done.
Big 12 want their own network. We have that.
I think we go into the Big 12.
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Post by 93beav on Aug 8, 2023 16:31:05 GMT -8
Throw academics out the window. Proven flop in the modern college football landscape. Absolutely on Fresno (Sac TV market is 20th and Fresno is generally included there with Stockton and Modesto). Absolutely Boise as they are one of top 25ish programs in the nation the past 20 years. In fact the most success of any other team in this new conference. I'd take Reno too for a natural rival with UNLV and it is centrally located with international airport. UNR has a decent hoops program and relatively recent success in football. Greater reno/tahoe area has population of 500K and most are wolfpack fans. Their football stadium royally sucks but they have an awesome hoops arena. I actually looked quite a bit into Fresno and their tv market. There seems to be a big dispute as to whether Sacramento is really within the Fresno St. TV market. From what I could tell, UNR has more influence in Sac. than Fresno due to proximity. And there was a heavy split of Sac. viewers. If Fresno "could carry" the Sac market, or at least viewed that way by networks, then sure. The two biggest downsides to Boise St are that they just have football and they are in a horrible TV market. It's nearly #100. Yes they did great. They had some good years and then setup an unequal revenue share in the MW. I don't think they do as well in a regular conference. But, did I mention they don't have all sports? |
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Post by grayman on Aug 8, 2023 16:46:22 GMT -8
Throw academics out the window. Proven flop in the modern college football landscape. Absolutely on Fresno (Sac TV market is 20th and Fresno is generally included there with Stockton and Modesto). Absolutely Boise as they are one of top 25ish programs in the nation the past 20 years. In fact the most success of any other team in this new conference. I'd take Reno too for a natural rival with UNLV and it is centrally located with international airport. UNR has a decent hoops program and relatively recent success in football. Greater reno/tahoe area has population of 500K and most are wolfpack fans. Their football stadium royally sucks but they have an awesome hoops arena. I actually looked quite a bit into Fresno and their tv market. There seems to be a big dispute as to whether Sacramento is really within the Fresno St. TV market. From what I could tell, UNR has more influence in Sac. than Fresno due to proximity. And there was a heavy split of Sac. viewers. If Fresno "could carry" the Sac market, or at least viewed that way by networks, then sure. The two biggest downsides to Boise St are that they just have football and they are in a horrible TV market. It's nearly #100. Yes they did great. They had some good years and then setup an unequal revenue share in the MW. I don't think they do as well in a regular conference. But, did I mention they don't have all sports? Fresno State and Boise State are still probably must adds in this scenario. They both (Boise State in particular) have some national name recognition due mostly to football success. |
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Post by bvrbred on Aug 8, 2023 17:21:33 GMT -8
Pretty sure Stanford and Cal are not going to be in the "Core 4." There's a lot to unpack as far as making anything involving MWC teams work. To me, if the Big-12 turns out to be a no-go and there's no $420-million pot of gold at the end of the rainbow (which could be leveraged into some sort of merger), then WSU and OSU will most likely join the MWC as "regular" members. I don' like MWC's 34 million dollar penalty for leaving. I'm opposed to doing it. Look for some other last resort even if it means staying independent for the short run to see what else develops in the conference musical chair rat race. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Aug 8, 2023 18:40:28 GMT -8
Apologies for the long post... I really like, although it is probably false, the idea around SDSU pulling "the best" of the PAC, MWC and AAC together. You can go one of two ways - you can go hyper-regional, try to build rivalries, etc. which is good for the sport and the fans, but may limit visibility and revenue or you can go geography-be-damned which can bring wider visibility, more revenue but also carries the huge travel burden in terms of cost and mental stability of the athletes. Or........ I believe that the two magic numbers are 8 and 10 (or maybe 12 depending upon how you look at it). You need 8 teams to qualify as a valid FBS conference and retain the auto-bid, although they may vote that away from the PAC soon. If you wanted to do divisions, you need at least 10. The core 4: OSU WSU Stanford Cal We will need not just good teams, but more importantly teams that have the ability to be self-sufficient. Donors with deep pockets who can build or buy top teams to get national notice and therefore get the conference national notice. The idea is to get enough visibility to at LEAST take away the MWC time slots at renewal time and maybe even make a charge for other packages that will be available in a few years. We also want to get schools that have all sports so our teams have someone to play. Yes, you could add Gonzaga as basketball only, once you've fulfilled the 8/10 rule. If 8 teams is the goal, I say add these: SMU - athletics budget of ~$70 million
- #5 tv market (yes, highly fractionalized)
- 72 in research
- $10 million dollar exit fee (AAC)
- has full sports
SDSU- athletics budget of ~$60 million
- #30 tv market
- 178 in research (R2 but going for R1 by 2025)
- $34 million dollar exit fee (MWC)
- has full sports
CSU - athletics budget of ~$55 million
- #16 tv market
- 151 research
- $34 million dollar exit fee (MWC)
- has full sports
UTSA - athletics budget of ~$40 million
- #31 tv market
- R1 research
- A downside is they are just joining the AAC. $10 million dollar exit fee (AAC)
- has full sports
If 10 (2 divisions of 5)... Tulane (or as sub for Stanford in 8) - athletics budget of ~$50 million
- Top 2% of universities nationwide in terms of research
- #50 tv market
- $10 million dollar exit fee (AAC)
Memphis - athlethics budget of ~$62 million
- research rank of 218
- #52 tv market
- $10 million dollar exit fee (AAC)
Adding Tulane and Memphis gives you one division of SMU, UTSA, Tulane, Memphis and a very unfortunate CSU. This gets you regionality, building rivalries, but also 1-2 cross-division games a year for national exposure. Possible additions or subs... Possible - UNLV Captures #40 - Las Vegas. Athletics budget of $47 million. R1 Research institution. Bogged down by $34 million exit fee (MWC) Possible - Fresno St (or as a sub for Cal) - athletics budget of around $40-$45 million, #53 tv market (Fresno-Visalia). #374 in research? I don't believe Fresno and research is possible. $34 million exit fee (MWC) Possible - Boise St? Good athletics budget, good budget sources (lots of self-funding vs subsidies). Research/academics not great, only captures the #98 TV market with Boise. $34 million exit fee (MWC) No baseball Possible - UNR? Doesn't have sound funding( ), 139th in country in research. Does potentially capture some of Sacramento, but is not the prime player. $34 million exit fee (MWC) Possible - Another CST team? For TV deals, you're going to have to see if ESPN (who has low night inventory) will pay a couple million for a late night game a week. Check the CW, as they were looking to double-header the AAC 2nd/3rd tier games you get. HBO MAX has a new sports tier that just bought MLB playoffs and is looking for heavy diversification. Then layer that all with some streaming option that is subscription-dependent, if that's still availble. I'm not talking $25 million, that's crazy, I'm talking $10-15 million. And then give away a subscription with every person who becomes part of the alumni network. Make each school responsible for their share of, let's say, 1 million subscribers. Maybe even pay schools more % of the increased revenue based upon subscriptions sold. You just need to maintain exposure and survivability for all sports for a few years to see what re-alignment brings again. We're gonna be making far, far less in TV revenue. So spending huge money flying to play SMU, Tulane, Memphis and San Antonio across the board in all sports makes absolutely no sense. None of those teams are even the biggest programs in their own market. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Aug 8, 2023 19:49:03 GMT -8
Pretty sure Stanford and Cal are not going to be in the "Core 4." There's a lot to unpack as far as making anything involving MWC teams work. To me, if the Big-12 turns out to be a no-go and there's no $420-million pot of gold at the end of the rainbow (which could be leveraged into some sort of merger), then WSU and OSU will most likely join the MWC as "regular" members. I don' like MWC's 34 million dollar penalty for leaving. I'm opposed to doing it. Look for some other last resort even if it means staying independent for the short run to see what else develops in the conference musical chair rat race. Isn't there a scenario where the MW just dissolves and buyout penalties are avoided? They dissolve and OSU and Wazzu merge with them to create a new conference? Still, the new TV deal will be similar to what the MW is getting currently which means huge budget cuts in the AD. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Aug 8, 2023 20:17:12 GMT -8
Pretty sure Stanford and Cal are not going to be in the "Core 4." There's a lot to unpack as far as making anything involving MWC teams work. To me, if the Big-12 turns out to be a no-go and there's no $420-million pot of gold at the end of the rainbow (which could be leveraged into some sort of merger), then WSU and OSU will most likely join the MWC as "regular" members. I don' like MWC's 34 million dollar penalty for leaving. I'm opposed to doing it. Look for some other last resort even if it means staying independent for the short run to see what else develops in the conference musical chair rat race. That buyout penalty evaporates/ disappears if we take the whole conference or enough to vote to dissolve the MWC (can't remember the exact number, think it was all but 2 or 3?). Zero penalty for leaving in that case. |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Aug 8, 2023 20:20:59 GMT -8
I don' like MWC's 34 million dollar penalty for leaving. I'm opposed to doing it. Look for some other last resort even if it means staying independent for the short run to see what else develops in the conference musical chair rat race. Isn't there a scenario where the MW just dissolves and buyout penalties are avoided? They dissolve and OSU and Wazzu merge with them to create a new conference? Still, the new TV deal will be similar to what the MW is getting currently which means huge budget cuts in the AD. MWC is sticking together, pac12 has 2 or maybe 4 teams. Stick a fork in the pacific conference is done. After the sh*tfest of the last week there is no value in the name. It's not like it will be a "power" conference. It sucks that 2 of the 4 founding schools stuck together and created a significant hit to the conference. |
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Post by ag87 on Aug 9, 2023 7:30:29 GMT -8
I don' like MWC's 34 million dollar penalty for leaving. I'm opposed to doing it. Look for some other last resort even if it means staying independent for the short run to see what else develops in the conference musical chair rat race. Isn't there a scenario where the MW just dissolves and buyout penalties are avoided? They dissolve and OSU and Wazzu merge with them to create a new conference? Still, the new TV deal will be similar to what the MW is getting currently which means huge budget cuts in the AD. I think the current MW Conf media deal ends after the 24/25 year. I believe starting with the 25/26 year there's much more flexibility - no buy outs. So if OSU and WSU can cobble something together for 24/25, the next year we may have a respectable conference. |
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), 139th in country in research. Does potentially capture some of Sacramento, but is not the prime player. $34 million exit fee (MWC)
