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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 7, 2023 15:28:45 GMT -8
The committee fudged a little to even list Georgia as a #14 seed. Georgia had the lowest RPI of any seed #1 through #15 and even had a lower RPI than #16 Portland State. Personally, I remember chatter that Portland State was PO'd that they received a #16 seed in 2008. Georgia had the 61st-highest RPI of teams in the field and probably should have been a #16 seed. The Committee bumped them up two lines to get them in as a #14 seed. And expansion of the Tournament pushes everyone's seed down, not up. If Georgia was a #14 seed in 2008, they would have probably been a #15 seed in a post-2010 Tournament. I will say that Oregon State should have been a #14 seed in 2021. In a perfect S curve, Oregon State would have played Kansas in the first round, which would have been a much harder row to hoe than Tennessee. Of course, the Vols were underrated in 2021, were the best of the #5 seeds, and probably should have been a #4 seed. Thus, Oregon State probably only really leapfrogged Liberty, Ohio, and UNC Greensboro in regards to opening matchup. I don't discount the idea that you are 100% correct. In fact, I very much want you to be right. I am just saying what I know. The last 4 at large bids are now 11 and 12 seeds. That is where you will find the lowest rated P5 conference teams. However, if you win your power 5 conference tournament, it is very unlikely that they will put you in a play-in game. That's why a cinderella team from a P5 conference is usually going to be one of the 12 seeds that is not in a play-in game. The expanded tournament pushed down the seedings of the lower ranked conference's teams, not the P5 conferences. I don't believe that there has been a P5 team below a 12 since the tourney expanded in 2011. A lot to take in in this post. First, the only play-in games that the winner of a Conference Tournament winner can play in are the two #16-#16-seed games. The other two play-in games are reserved for the final four at-large teams. A Conference Tournament Champion cannot play in those games. Historically those seeds have ranged anywhere from #11 to #14. Having said that, the 2012 Tournament was the final one, where at large teams were placed at the #14-seed. And the 2013 Tournament was the final Tournament, where at large teams were placed at the #13 seed. Lowest-Seeded Power Five Champion: 2011 #3 Washington #7-seed in the East Regional.
2012 #6 Colorado #11-seed in the South Regional.
2013 #3 Ole Miss & #3 Oregon #12-seed in the West & Midwest Regionals, respectively.
2014 #4 Iowa State #3-seed in the East Regional.
2015 #3 Notre Dame #3-seed in the Midwest Regional.
2016 #2 Kentucky #4-seed in the East Regional.
2017 #8 Michigan #7-seed in the Midwest Regional.
2018 #5 Michigan #3-seed in the West Regional.
2019 #6 Oregon #12-seed in the South Regional.
2021 #5 Oregon State #12-seed in the Midwest Regional.
2022 #7 Virginia Tech #11-seed in the East Regional.
No team has been ranked below a #12-seed since 2011, but Michigan was the lowest-seeded team to win a Power Five Conference Tournament. And that Wolverine team finished with an RPI of 25 and was accordingly awarded a #7-seed.
Virginia Tech finished with a NET of 27 last year and was given an #11 seed, which was probably low.
In further analysis, I am going to exclude the ACC and Big Ten, because they are treated completely different than every other conference in basketball. And any comparison with those conference in this analysis is just as stupid, if not moreso, than talking about how Oregon State could be some fill-in-the-blank ACC or Big Ten university.
The lowest seed to win a Power Five Conference over the previous 12 seasons is #6 Oregon. The Ducks finished with an RPI of 46 and was formulaically given a #12-seed.
2012 Colorado finished with an RPI of 59 but was bumped up to an #11-seed.
The third-lowest seed to win a Power Five Conference over the previous 12 seasons is #5 Oregon. The Beavs finished with a NET of 91 and should have probably received a #14-seed but was "bumped up" to a #12-seed to play a bumped down Tennessee, in what felt like a Godfatheresque planned hit on Oregon State. The Beavs Sonny Corleoned that hit, though, and started taking out the heads of the five families before forgetting how to play defense and rebound against Houston. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 7, 2023 15:39:32 GMT -8
The last 4 at large bids are now 11 and 12 seeds. That is where you will find the lowest rated P5 conference teams. However, if you win your power 5 conference tournament, it is very unlikely that they will put you in a play-in game. That's why a cinderella team from a P5 conference is usually going to be one of the 12 seeds that is not in a play-in game. The expanded tournament pushed down the seedings of the lower ranked conference's teams, not the P5 conferences. I don't believe that there has been a P5 team below a 12 since the tourney expanded in 2011. A lot to take in in this post. First, the only play-in games that the winner of a Conference Tournament winner can play in are the two #16-#16-seed games. The other two play-in games are reserved for the final four at-large teams. A Conference Tournament Champion cannot play in those games. Historically those seeds have ranged anywhere from #11 to #14. Having said that, the 2012 Tournament was the final one, where at large teams were placed at the #14-seed. And the 2013 Tournament was the final Tournament, where at large teams were placed at the #13 seed. Lowest-Seeded Power Five Champion: 2011 #3 Washington #7-seed in the East Regional.
2012 #6 Colorado #11-seed in the South Regional.
2013 #3 Ole Miss & #3 Oregon #12-seed in the West & Midwest Regionals, respectively.
2014 #4 Iowa State #3-seed in the East Regional.
2015 #3 Notre Dame #3-seed in the Midwest Regional.
2016 #2 Kentucky #4-seed in the East Regional.
2017 #8 Michigan #7-seed in the Midwest Regional.
2018 #5 Michigan #3-seed in the West Regional.
2019 #6 Oregon #12-seed in the South Regional.
2021 #5 Oregon State #12-seed in the Midwest Regional.
2022 #7 Virginia Tech #11-seed in the East Regional.
No team has been ranked below a #12-seed since 2011, but Michigan was the lowest-seeded team to win a Power Five Conference Tournament. And that Wolverine team finished with an RPI of 25 and was accordingly awarded a #7-seed.
Virginia Tech finished with a NET of 27 last year and was given an #11 seed, which was probably low.
In further analysis, I am going to exclude the ACC and Big Ten, because they are treated completely different than every other conference in basketball. And any comparison with those conference in this analysis is just as stupid, if not moreso, than talking about how Oregon State could be some fill-in-the-blank ACC or Big Ten university.
The lowest seed to win a Power Five Conference over the previous 12 seasons is #6 Oregon. The Ducks finished with an RPI of 46 and was formulaically given a #12-seed.
2012 Colorado finished with an RPI of 59 but was bumped up to an #11-seed.
The third-lowest seed to win a Power Five Conference over the previous 12 seasons is #5 Oregon. The Beavs finished with a NET of 91 and should have probably received a #14-seed but was "bumped up" to a #12-seed to play a bumped down Tennessee, in what felt like a Godfatheresque planned hit on Oregon State. The Beavs Sonny Corleoned that hit, though, and started taking out the heads of the five families before forgetting how to play defense and rebound against Houston.So you posted that novel to agree with me? Again, if you are from a P5 conference, you're not getting below a 12 in the current format. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 7, 2023 15:49:54 GMT -8
A lot to take in in this post. First, the only play-in games that the winner of a Conference Tournament winner can play in are the two #16-#16-seed games. The other two play-in games are reserved for the final four at-large teams. A Conference Tournament Champion cannot play in those games. Historically those seeds have ranged anywhere from #11 to #14. Having said that, the 2012 Tournament was the final one, where at large teams were placed at the #14-seed. And the 2013 Tournament was the final Tournament, where at large teams were placed at the #13 seed. Lowest-Seeded Power Five Champion: 2011 #3 Washington #7-seed in the East Regional.
2012 #6 Colorado #11-seed in the South Regional.
2013 #3 Ole Miss & #3 Oregon #12-seed in the West & Midwest Regionals, respectively.
2014 #4 Iowa State #3-seed in the East Regional.
2015 #3 Notre Dame #3-seed in the Midwest Regional.
2016 #2 Kentucky #4-seed in the East Regional.
2017 #8 Michigan #7-seed in the Midwest Regional.
2018 #5 Michigan #3-seed in the West Regional.
2019 #6 Oregon #12-seed in the South Regional.
2021 #5 Oregon State #12-seed in the Midwest Regional.
2022 #7 Virginia Tech #11-seed in the East Regional.
No team has been ranked below a #12-seed since 2011, but Michigan was the lowest-seeded team to win a Power Five Conference Tournament. And that Wolverine team finished with an RPI of 25 and was accordingly awarded a #7-seed.
Virginia Tech finished with a NET of 27 last year and was given an #11 seed, which was probably low.
In further analysis, I am going to exclude the ACC and Big Ten, because they are treated completely different than every other conference in basketball. And any comparison with those conference in this analysis is just as stupid, if not moreso, than talking about how Oregon State could be some fill-in-the-blank ACC or Big Ten university.
The lowest seed to win a Power Five Conference over the previous 12 seasons is #6 Oregon. The Ducks finished with an RPI of 46 and was formulaically given a #12-seed.
2012 Colorado finished with an RPI of 59 but was bumped up to an #11-seed.
The third-lowest seed to win a Power Five Conference over the previous 12 seasons is #5 Oregon. The Beavs finished with a NET of 91 and should have probably received a #14-seed but was "bumped up" to a #12-seed to play a bumped down Tennessee, in what felt like a Godfatheresque planned hit on Oregon State. The Beavs Sonny Corleoned that hit, though, and started taking out the heads of the five families before forgetting how to play defense and rebound against Houston.So you posted that novel to agree with me? Again, if you are from a P5 conference, you're not getting below a 12 in the current format. The first paragraph was a lot of disagreement. If you have a NET of 91 or better, I doubt that you are wrong. However, the Beavs are currently sitting with a NET of 221. I personally find it unlikely that Oregon State is going to jump up 130 spots, even with four straight wins. And, unless they get to the low 90s, I just doubt that Oregon State gets a #12 seed, unless there are a host of conference upsets. I would love to be wrong about all that. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 7, 2023 15:52:21 GMT -8
So you posted that novel to agree with me? Again, if you are from a P5 conference, you're not getting below a 12 in the current format. The first paragraph was a lot of disagreement. If you have a NET of 91 or better, I doubt that you are wrong. However, the Beavs are currently sitting with a NET of 221. I personally find it unlikely that Oregon State is going to jump up 130 spots, even with four straight wins. And, unless they get to the low 90s, I just doubt that Oregon State gets a #12 seed, unless there are a host of conference upsets. I would love to be wrong about all that. I'm just saying that it has not been done since the tourney expanded. They don't just go by NET. I think if you win 4 games in a row in your tourney, they are going to find a way to get you to a 12. It's not happening anyway. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 7, 2023 16:07:15 GMT -8
The first paragraph was a lot of disagreement. If you have a NET of 91 or better, I doubt that you are wrong. However, the Beavs are currently sitting with a NET of 221. I personally find it unlikely that Oregon State is going to jump up 130 spots, even with four straight wins. And, unless they get to the low 90s, I just doubt that Oregon State gets a #12 seed, unless there are a host of conference upsets. I would love to be wrong about all that. I'm just saying that it has not been done since the tourney expanded. They don't just go by NET. I think if you win 4 games in a row in your tourney, they are going to find a way to get you to a 12.
It's not happening anyway. They don't just go by NET. You may 100% be right. I am merely saying that every team has been a #12-seed or better, because they had an RPI/NET of 91 or better. And the Committee has shown that they will hand out #13 and #14 seeds, if your RPI is low enough. If Oregon State has an RPI North of 91, you may see a seed North of #12. |
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Post by bennysdentist on Mar 7, 2023 19:47:53 GMT -8
Thanks Wilky and Judge. Interesting discussion about something that will not happen. My comment was just kind of a throwaway musing about what-if. Anyway, I’ll be pulling hard for the Beavs this week, but pulling out my Gonzaga gear to take to Vegas
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 7, 2023 20:28:56 GMT -8
Thanks Wilky and Judge. Interesting discussion about something that will not happen. My comment was just kind of a throwaway musing about what-if. Anyway, I’ll be pulling hard for the Beavs this week, but pulling out my Gonzaga gear to take to Vegas The Bulldogs just punched their ticket tonight. They're off until the Tourney. Bring your luckiest Beaver gear. We're gonna need it! |
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Post by bennysdentist on Mar 7, 2023 21:08:58 GMT -8
Thanks Wilky and Judge. Interesting discussion about something that will not happen. My comment was just kind of a throwaway musing about what-if. Anyway, I’ll be pulling hard for the Beavs this week, but pulling out my Gonzaga gear to take to Vegas The Bulldogs just punched their ticket tonight. They're off until the Tourney. Bring your luckiest Beaver gear. We're gonna need it! Will do, every game. GO BEAVERS!!! |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 7, 2023 22:53:41 GMT -8
2021:
ESPN's BPI odds:
UCLA 24.3%
Oregon 23.2%
Colorado 14.8%
Tennessee 14.5%
Oklahoma State 27.5%
Loyola-Chicago 19.4%
The odds of Oregon State beating all six teams in a row was roughly 1 out of 15,493.
2023:
ESPN Analytics:
Arizona State 9.4%
It looks like Oregon State has a harder row to hoe this year.
However, to quote Lao Tzu, "A journey of 1,000 li (about 1/3 of a mile) begins with a single step."
Big first step tomorrow. Bigger one the day after.
Go Beavs!
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