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Post by beaverstever on Feb 20, 2023 0:06:26 GMT -8
Several have said that while her shooting is down this year, her overall stats are up. While that's true, it really doesn't come close to balancing out her massive decline in shooting accuracy. In fact, if her shooting % looked like what it did her first year, we'd be performing at or above expectations for this season. While rebounds, assists and steals are all helpful, putting the ball in the basket is the whole point of the game.
Consider: Talia has gone from a 43% her first year, to 36% last year, and down to 30% this year form 3. Even worse, she's at 25% in conference games this year.
Her overall FG% went from 44% her first year, to 40% last year, and now at 37%. In conference, she's currently shooting 27.5%.
Consider the following losses:
UO: 75-67: TvO 3-13 shooting 2-10 from 3. That's 8 points on 13 shots.
2 years ago, her average would have been 6-13, resulting in +8 points. That would have made that game a toss-up. Her stats last year would have more likely only been 6-5 more points, so not quite enough.
Arizona: 72-69: TvO 5-12, 2-7 on 3s: Her first year, she'd statistically have made another 3, making it again a toss-up. However, she shot 60% in this game from inside the arch, so that's a two above the average - so this is a loss with her shooting her first-year averages.
WSU:: 63-56: TvO 2-14, 1-7 from 3: Her first year, she makes at least 2 more 3s and two more two - that's 10 points, enough to get the W. Even last year's stats gets 1.5 more 3s and 2 more 2s, for at least 7 points.
Stanford: 63-60: TvO 3-14, 3-9 from 3. First year TvO gets 1 more 3 and 2 more 2s, for a +7. Even last year's stats gets at least the two more 2s to be enough for a W.
Cal: 64-62: TvO 4-15, 2-6 from 3. First year TvO gets likely one more 3 and 2 more 2s for +7, easily enough for a W. Last year's TvO gets two more 2s as well, again enough for the W.
Utah: 75-73: TvO 7-18, 3-8 from 3. First year TvO gets 1 more bucket, split between a two or a 3. This game she played right around her previous year's stats. So good chance this is toss-up or W for first-year stats, still a loss with last year's stats.
UCLA: 62-54: TvO 1-9, 1-4. First year TvO likely makes 1 more 3 and 2 more twos, that's +7 - not enough for a W. However, this was a 4pt game with 30s, until the fouling exchange added the four points - that plays out very differently if the game is at least tied.
UW 64-59: 2-6, 0-3: First year TvO makes one more 3, not enough to overcome the delta. Didn't play a lot of minutes or take a lot of shots,
WSU: 57-67: 1-10, 0-2 plus 0-2 FTs. First year TvO adds a 3, and two 2s plus both FT for +9. Not quite enough, but again, that game ended in them shooting FTs to widen the final score that plays out much differently if 7-9 more points are scored.
So that's 4 more wins, and 5 more losses that would have been 50-50 games if her shooting returned to what she was able to do her first year rather than continuing her downward trends. That would take us from currently 3-13 to at least 7-9, and more likely 9-8 or 10-7.
And it's not like she had games where she shot well above her teammates averages in losses. And unlikely last year, there's really no games this year where she carried any of the conference wins on her shoulders.
Now obviously the record isn't all on TvO - they lose when she's not playing, or playing fewer minutes. However, statistically the team certainly would have been better of in some games if she had focused on setting up other shooters than taking them shots herself, because she's a volume shooter - so when she shoots below the team's averages, the impact becomes substantial. But (apparently) setting up teammates and passing up shots when struggling is not her role and not what's been asked of her- what CR planned on and needed was her to score at an efficiency she's been capable of historically. She's been a long ways from that, and that alone has made the difference in so many close games.
What I really am trying to illustrate is that this team really isn't that far away at all - they are only TvO getting back to herself from being a mid-level Pac-12 team in a very good conference - and surrounded by talented young players developing quickly. Whether it's an injury or mental, or both, if TvO can return to what she's done previously, they will again be in the mix.
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Post by greybeav on Feb 20, 2023 8:24:04 GMT -8
Wow, thanks for that supreme effort to gather data and illustrate your point Beaverstever !
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Post by skyrider on Feb 20, 2023 9:51:36 GMT -8
What I really am trying to illustrate is that this team really isn't that far away at all - they are only TvO getting back to herself from being a mid-level Pac-12 team in a very good conference - and surrounded by talented young players developing quickly. Whether it's an injury or mental, or both, if TvO can return to what she's done previously, they will again be in the mix. This season looks much different if TvO shoots what she's capable of beaverstever,
Excellent research, well thought out and stated.
The unfortunate truth, however, may be that TVO will never return to what she was capable of at one time. SR has so screwed things up that the "horse is out of the barn" in regards to TVO.
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Post by beaverwbb fan on Feb 20, 2023 10:03:25 GMT -8
What I really am trying to illustrate is that this team really isn't that far away at all - they are only TvO getting back to herself from being a mid-level Pac-12 team in a very good conference - and surrounded by talented young players developing quickly. Whether it's an injury or mental, or both, if TvO can return to what she's done previously, they will again be in the mix. This season looks much different if TvO shoots what she's capable of beaverstever,
Excellent research, well thought out and stated.
The unfortunate truth, however, may be that TVO will never return to what she was capable of at one time. SR has so screwed things up that the "horse is out of the barn" in regards to TVO.
How exactly is Scott responsible for TVO's inability to consistently make shots? She's knocked down the exact same looks she's now missing under Rueck. I don't see a lack of confidence or her playing timid. I simply see her missing a lot of shots she made in her first two seasons. |
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Post by wbosh15 on Feb 20, 2023 11:30:50 GMT -8
What I really am trying to illustrate is that this team really isn't that far away at all - they are only TvO getting back to herself from being a mid-level Pac-12 team in a very good conference - and surrounded by talented young players developing quickly. Whether it's an injury or mental, or both, if TvO can return to what she's done previously, they will again be in the mix. This season looks much different if TvO shoots what she's capable of beaverstever,
Excellent research, well thought out and stated.
The unfortunate truth, however, may be that TVO will never return to what she was capable of at one time. SR has so screwed things up that the "horse is out of the barn" in regards to TVO.
I don't see how you can come to that conclusion. To me I think it's a combo of the injury, especially if it's a foot injury, and her playing lots of time with offensive non-threats. I actually though she was moving quite well in the WSU game. I would like to see her play some with the 4 freshman, because it's much tougher to have 2 on the ball with more shooting on the floor. |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Feb 20, 2023 11:44:33 GMT -8
What I really am trying to illustrate is that this team really isn't that far away at all - they are only TvO getting back to herself from being a mid-level Pac-12 team in a very good conference - and surrounded by talented young players developing quickly. Whether it's an injury or mental, or both, if TvO can return to what she's done previously, they will again be in the mix. This season looks much different if TvO shoots what she's capable of beaverstever,
Excellent research, well thought out and stated.
The unfortunate truth, however, may be that TVO will never return to what she was capable of at one time. SR has so screwed things up that the "horse is out of the barn" in regards to TVO.
This post is full of that horse sh*t that was left in the barn. |
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Post by skyrider on Feb 20, 2023 11:57:15 GMT -8
beaverstever,
Excellent research, well thought out and stated.
The unfortunate truth, however, may be that TVO will never return to what she was capable of at one time. SR has so screwed things up that the "horse is out of the barn" in regards to TVO.
I don't see how you can come to that conclusion. To me I think it's a combo of the injury, especially if it's a foot injury, and her playing lots of time with offensive non-threats. I actually though she was moving quite well in the WSU game. I would like to see her play some with the 4 freshman, because it's much tougher to have 2 on the ball with more shooting on the floor. wbosh15
Thank you for your response and your insightful observations.
Hopefully you are correct in your assessment of the situation. However, my view is that there is a combination of physical and mental problems at work here. Also at this point, there may also be a lack of confidence from TVO in the guidance and direction she is receiving from the coaches and staff.
I believe the situation will become much clearer when the results of the transfer portal are in place for the upcoming season. This is not a shooting slump. This is a shooting meltdown.
This situation, in some ways, reminds me of the Taylor Jones story. Played her last year here with an injury that apparently the Coaching and Medical staff said was okay to play with. It affected the quality of her play and clearly how much enjoyment she received while playing. At the end of the season, she elected to transfer.
It is fair to question how much enjoyment TVO has gotten out of this season if she has been playing hurt most of the year. Also, did SR have her best interests in mind by playing her, or was he trying to compensate for once again not having a quality point guard.
Yes, much of this is speculation. However as the old saying goes "Where there is smoke, there is fire"
Go Beavs!
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Feb 20, 2023 12:10:14 GMT -8
I don't see how you can come to that conclusion. To me I think it's a combo of the injury, especially if it's a foot injury, and her playing lots of time with offensive non-threats. I actually though she was moving quite well in the WSU game. I would like to see her play some with the 4 freshman, because it's much tougher to have 2 on the ball with more shooting on the floor. wbosh15
Thank you for your response and your insightful observations.
Hopefully you are correct in your assessment of the situation. However, my view is that there is a combination of physical and mental problems at work here. Also at this point, there may also be a lack of confidence from TVO in the guidance and direction she is receiving from the coaches and staff.
I believe the situation will become much clearer when the results of the transfer portal are in place for the upcoming season. This is not a shooting slump. This is a shooting meltdown.
This situation, in some ways, reminds me of the Taylor Jones story. Played her last year here with an injury that apparently the Coaching and Medical staff said was okay to play with. It affected the quality of her play and clearly how much enjoyment she received while playing. At the end of the season, she elected to transfer.
It is fair to question how much enjoyment TVO has gotten out of this season if she has been playing hurt most of the year. Also, did SR have her best interests in mind by playing her, or was he trying to compensate for once again not having a quality point guard.
Yes, much of this is speculation. However as the old saying goes "Where there is smoke, there is fire"
Go Beavs!
Once again you are showing your complete ignorance. Taylor played 9 games last year and missed the last 21 because of injury. |
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Post by skyrider on Feb 20, 2023 12:51:22 GMT -8
wbosh15
Thank you for your response and your insightful observations.
Hopefully you are correct in your assessment of the situation. However, my view is that there is a combination of physical and mental problems at work here. Also at this point, there may also be a lack of confidence from TVO in the guidance and direction she is receiving from the coaches and staff.
I believe the situation will become much clearer when the results of the transfer portal are in place for the upcoming season. This is not a shooting slump. This is a shooting meltdown.
This situation, in some ways, reminds me of the Taylor Jones story. Played her last year here with an injury that apparently the Coaching and Medical staff said was okay to play with. It affected the quality of her play and clearly how much enjoyment she received while playing. At the end of the season, she elected to transfer.
It is fair to question how much enjoyment TVO has gotten out of this season if she has been playing hurt most of the year. Also, did SR have her best interests in mind by playing her, or was he trying to compensate for once again not having a quality point guard.
Yes, much of this is speculation. However as the old saying goes "Where there is smoke, there is fire"
Go Beavs!
Once again you are showing your complete ignorance. Taylor played 9 games last year and missed the last 21 because of injury. believeinthebeavs
Thank you for your response. Also for your "compliment" that my ignorance was "complete"(grin).
Please explain how the validity of my comment about Taylor had anything at all to do with how many games she played and how many she missed due to injury.
My point was that there was much information that Taylor (and her family) felt that her injury had not been treated properly, should have been taken care of in the previous off season, and then eventually (9 games in) it became apparent that not doing so resulted in her no longer being able to play out the year.
Go Beavs!
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Post by beaveragain on Feb 20, 2023 13:52:06 GMT -8
Once again you are showing your complete ignorance. Taylor played 9 games last year and missed the last 21 because of injury. believeinthebeavs
Thank you for your response. Also for your "compliment" that my ignorance was "complete"(grin).
Please explain how the validity of my comment about Taylor had anything at all to do with how many games she played and how many she missed due to injury.
My point was that there was much information that Taylor (and her family) felt that her injury had not been treated properly, should have been taken care of in the previous off season, and then eventually (9 games in) it became apparent that not doing so resulted in her no longer being able to play out the year.
Go Beavs!
If you listen to coaches talking about injuries you will notice that they are completely hands off. Now days if a coach tries to influence treatment/recovery they can get their asses sued off. And I think all coaches know that. |
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Post by beaveragain on Feb 20, 2023 14:27:54 GMT -8
My own thoughts on TVO's shooting problems are-
Her first year Aleah was the primary shooter and there was no pressure on TVO.
Second year TVO was the primary shooter and there were no other guards who were shooting very well, but at least Mack and Taya was doing all right up front and at the 3.
Third year TVO has been all alone. No one else at the beginning of the year was hitting squat from the 3 and so Talia was constantly double teamed out there. I think that got her in a bad head space and even though the rest of the team is finally shooting better Talia is finding it hard to hit anything now. The hope would be that she can rest and recoup over the off season. And with the rest of the team still hitting next year, so Talia won't keep getting so much defensive attention, Talia will have the season we hope for.
And on a transfer PG being the answer to everything, I just don't see it working out. Bendu, despite being a defensive standout everywhere else she's been, has not been sensational with the Beav's. She keeps going after steals instead of keeping her defensive position. This has left the other team with an open shot on a number of occasions. Freshman start getting the hand of the defense after about 2/3rds of the season, while transfers take a year before they really get it. So to expect a PG to come in and save the day seems a stretch to me. Maybe it will happen and I will be very happy, but for now my hopes are on Martha making a leap in her defense.
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Post by skyrider on Feb 20, 2023 14:54:14 GMT -8
My own thoughts on TVO's shooting problems are- Her first year Aleah was the primary shooter and there was no pressure on TVO. Second year TVO was the primary shooter and there were no other guards who were shooting very well, but at least Mack and Taya was doing all right up front and at the 3. Third year TVO has been all alone. No one else at the beginning of the year was hitting squat from the 3 and so Talia was constantly double teamed out there. I think that got her in a bad head space and even though the rest of the team is finally shooting better Talia is finding it hard to hit anything now. The hope would be that she can rest and recoup over the off season. And with the rest of the team still hitting next year, so Talia won't keep getting so much defensive attention, Talia will have the season we hope for. And on a transfer PG being the answer to everything, I just don't see it working out. Bendu, despite being a defensive standout everywhere else she's been, has not been sensational with the Beav's. She keeps going after steals instead of keeping her defensive position. This has left the other team with an open shot on a number of occasions. Freshman start getting the hand of the defense after about 2/3rds of the season, while transfers take a year before they really get it. So to expect a PG to come in and save the day seems a stretch to me. Maybe it will happen and I will be very happy, but for now my hopes are on Martha making a leap in her defense. beaver again
I too hope Martha may be the answer.
I believe I have been spoiled over the SR years with observing so many players (Jamie W., Gabby H, Ruth H, Marie G., Kat T., Katie M., Sydney W., Aleah G. and others) make dramatic improvements in their skills and performances during their time at OSU.
There was a work ethic and competitive drive there that clearly seems to be missing now.
Somehow, even with the portal transfer situation, that trademark of the program must return if the Beavs are to climb back to, at least, respectability;
I have no magic blueprint of how that would occur but occur it must or as fans we are in for a lot of losses!
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Post by wbosh15 on Feb 20, 2023 15:03:03 GMT -8
My own thoughts on TVO's shooting problems are- Her first year Aleah was the primary shooter and there was no pressure on TVO. Second year TVO was the primary shooter and there were no other guards who were shooting very well, but at least Mack and Taya was doing all right up front and at the 3. Third year TVO has been all alone. No one else at the beginning of the year was hitting squat from the 3 and so Talia was constantly double teamed out there. I think that got her in a bad head space and even though the rest of the team is finally shooting better Talia is finding it hard to hit anything now. The hope would be that she can rest and recoup over the off season. And with the rest of the team still hitting next year, so Talia won't keep getting so much defensive attention, Talia will have the season we hope for. And on a transfer PG being the answer to everything, I just don't see it working out. Bendu, despite being a defensive standout everywhere else she's been, has not been sensational with the Beav's. She keeps going after steals instead of keeping her defensive position. This has left the other team with an open shot on a number of occasions. Freshman start getting the hand of the defense after about 2/3rds of the season, while transfers take a year before they really get it. So to expect a PG to come in and save the day seems a stretch to me. Maybe it will happen and I will be very happy, but for now my hopes are on Martha making a leap in her defense. beaver again
I too hope Martha may be the answer.
I believe I have been spoiled over the SR years with observing so many players (Jamie W., Gabby H, Ruth H, Marie G., Kat T., Katie M., Sydney W., Aleah G. and others) make dramatic improvements in their skills and performances during their time at OSU.
There was a work ethic and competitive drive there that clearly seems to be missing now.
Somehow, even with the portal transfer situation, that trademark of the program must return if the Beavs are to climb back to, at least, respectability;
I have no magic blueprint of how that would occur but occur it must or as fans we are in for a lot of losses!
I kinda disagree with your dramatic improvements you've mentioned there in your post. To me the only players in the last 10 years I would say made a "dramatic" improvement where Ruth, Marie, Kolbie Orum and Aleah. The others I'm sure improved, but Syd was all-pac-12 from the start. Jamie was always a great guard. Kat and Katie M where pretty much the same players as freshman as they where as seniors. I see the improvement potential on this team with Adlee and Lily. I think they could both develop into REALLY good Pac-12 players. Adlee especially. |
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Post by skyrider on Feb 20, 2023 15:13:49 GMT -8
beaver again
I too hope Martha may be the answer.
I believe I have been spoiled over the SR years with observing so many players (Jamie W., Gabby H, Ruth H, Marie G., Kat T., Katie M., Sydney W., Aleah G. and others) make dramatic improvements in their skills and performances during their time at OSU.
There was a work ethic and competitive drive there that clearly seems to be missing now.
Somehow, even with the portal transfer situation, that trademark of the program must return if the Beavs are to climb back to, at least, respectability;
I have no magic blueprint of how that would occur but occur it must or as fans we are in for a lot of losses!
I kinda disagree with your dramatic improvements you've mentioned there in your post. To me the only players in the last 10 years I would say made a "dramatic" improvement where Ruth, Marie, Kolbie Orum and Aleah. The others I'm sure improved, but Syd was all-pac-12 from the start. Jamie was always a great guard. Kat and Katie M where pretty much the same players as freshman as they where as seniors. I see the improvement potential on this team with Adlee and Lily. I think they could both develop into REALLY good Pac-12 players. Adlee especially. wbosh15,
Thanks for your response. You state your position very well, and I agree with you that both Adlee and Lily could develop as you say.
Perhaps I am over reacting to what I see in terms of (a) TVO not only not improving but actually becoming worse (b) A.J. who has probably the best athletic talent on the team virtually disappearing as a factor and (c) the limited (after 3 years in the program) of Jelena's progress
Go Beavs!.
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Post by wbosh15 on Feb 20, 2023 15:47:44 GMT -8
Skyrider
I understand where you are coming from there. We all would love to see all of the players make big leaps and improvements, especially if it would lead to wins. TVO has really improved defensively, and I think will continue to get better once what ever is ailing her heals up. Jelena has improved, but unfortunately with her physical limitations (Balance/Quickness) there are just some matchups that are just bad for her. Others (ie Oregon) she can make a difference. AJ to me is someone who needs to learn to be able to impact a game without just hitting a bunch of mid-range jumpers. If she can continue to improve her handle, I think she can really be a nice player, but offensively she's not the shooter than either of the two Freshman wings are, and she doesn't see the floor as well as Adlee does. I think Adlee has really good court vision.
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