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Post by RenoBeaver on Feb 15, 2023 13:08:07 GMT -8
I'd argue don't believe pac 12 homer Propoganda...but you're not on Derek Dukes level;) and no, OSU is nowhere near Iowa State at this point because they play in a P5 conferenve that actually has a TV contract in place. BTW Canzano is basically saying the same thing as Dukes...just in a more subtle fashion. Dukes is actually spot on. Everything in that report is on point. The Pac 12 is a clown show right now...the public pitch to SMU reeked of desperation. It's so bad that the Pac 12 NEEDS San Diego State to join. At this point the Pac 12 is a step up from the MWC...and a few floors below the Big 12. As that earlier link to TV viewers illustrated, exactly one Pac 12 conference game garnered over 4M viewers last year...and it was the two teams leaving the Pac 12. We have an existing TV contract in place, just not a new one. We are still in a much better position than the ACC who is locked into their ESPN deal for another 13 years. The inference isnt difficult to comprehend. Oregon and Washington could bolt for Big 10 tomorrow if they got an invite...and most certainly would. And if Pac 12 negotiates a s%#tty contract...I'll be shocked if either signs a grant of rights deal. ACC at this point even with the s%#tty contract is in better shape than the Pac 12. Only Pac 12 fans are smart enough to call the ACC contract s%#tty when it pays them 36M per school while the Pac 12 us struggling to get to 30M per
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Feb 15, 2023 13:20:13 GMT -8
An "analysis" from the bastion of unbiased sports journalism, Heartland College Sports titled "The Big 12 Thrives While the Pac-12 Nose Dives" ( link) still manages to raise some good questions: - why hasn't George closed any deal? - will attractive evening slots get soaked up by UCLA/USC? - are media companies beating a path to George's house? - why are other conferences appearing to take action and make constructive moves while the Pac-10 is, in the words of the article, "twiddling their thumbs"? My hope is that George is a pleasant surprise at the end of the day, but at the end of today I am left wondering...... Interesting times. Go Beavers! My starting point at this particular time is that I do not have a lot of faith in the leadership of the Pac 12 conference to get it out of the situation we find ourselves in. This includes Kliavkoff as well as the Presidents and Board of the Pac 12 conference. At the same time, the Pac 12 finds itself in a much more difficult position at the present time than any other Power 5 conference at this particular time. To wit: 1) Need anything be said about the Big 10 and the SEC? Their only problem is to figure out how to keep their embarrassment of riches going for the foreseeable future. That includes NIL as well as media rights. 2) The Big 12 had the biggest chunk of itself ripped out by the SEC but since it was the first conference to be so raided in this latest round of conference realignment, they have had the most time to adjust to the blow. They quickly went out and got 4 of the best Group of 5 properties out there, including BYU, which I bet the Pac 12 would have loved to have had a crack at after the LA schools shafted the rest of us. And now, Texas and Oklahoma are poised to give the Big 12 $100 million so they can leave early. 3) The ACC has a similar problem as the Pac 12 in that it's best properties are a threat to leave the conference as soon as their media rights deal is done. But really, it's going to take dissolution for any ACC teams to leave the conference because of the high exit fees. And while their grant of rights deal is weak compared to the SEC--Clemson got $36 million last year--it is a steady income through 2036. If it really becomes too big (too small?) of a problem, the teams can dissolve the conference and seek greener pastures elsewhere. And then there is the beleaguered Pac 12. --Our biggest programs in football and basketball just ditched us. --Those two were crappy flag-bearers in the recent past. UCLA has been a mixed bag (for them) in basketball for the past 30 years and USC has been underperforming (for them) in football since Carroll left. Now they're on the way up just in time to leave. --They also blocked our conference from getting better back when OU and UT gave us a look. Couldn't stand the competition. I'm sure they'll be great in the Big 10. --And they ain't gonna give us $100 million in exit fees on their way out the door. --No, the Pac 12 has the opposite of that scenario: our former commissioner failed to keep track of the money and now the Pac 12 owes $50 million payback for overpayments. Scott also blew a lot of money on over-priced overhead. --The two biggest athletic revenue generators left in the Pac 12, uo and UW, would be gone yesterday if the Big 10 flashed itself at them. Then the next four biggest would bolt to the Big 12. The conference sits atop a knife edge of uncertainty. --The Pac 12 most likely needs more teams to secure a grant of rights deal worth anything, so they are going after SDSU, the best Group of 5 program left in the west, and...SMU? which generates the 6th most football revenue in Texas and would be 10th in the Pac 12, ahead of Colorado and OSU? One team out of Texas? How soon will SMU leave if given the right opportunity even if they do join? --And now the Pac 12 is trying to get a new media rights deal. --The Big 12 and SEC have gobbled up the best deals with Fox and ESPN. The rest are going to get the scraps. Who could do a good job in this scenario? Could anyone get us near the Big 10 or SEC deal? (No). How many people could get us a better deal than what the Big 12 is likely getting? The disadvantages against the Pac 12 are stacked. I can't blame this on Kliavkoff, who walked into a mine field with no idea what was coming down the pike. If he gets us near the roughly $31 million/team/year that the Big 12 is expecting, I'll call him a miracle worker. s%#t, if the Pac 12 survives another ten years I'll be impressed. I wouldn't trade for Kliavkoff's job for anything. 2) The $100 million. That's why Oklahoma and Texas are staying for another year, right? They were going to leave early and now everyone realizes that they would owe the $100 million, so they will stick it out through 2024. Now, the Big 12 may have to buy out Oklahoma and Texas to make everything sync up right. The Pac-12's contract runs out a year earlier than the Big 12's, which is why there is not a $100 million-type issue. The Comcast money may or may not be a thing. Comcast is alleging that they overpaid. You and I both have seen hundreds of people that allege things that don't pan out. And that issue may not be all bad, because it might confound UCLA and USC's efforts to leave clean. Settle the issue or stick it out, kids! I am not sold that it does exist, and I am not sold that, if it does exist, it is necessarily a terrible thing. That may still work out in the conference's favor. You plan for the future based upon knowns. Unknowns can throw a wrench into things, as you know. If Oklahoma and Texas stick it out another year, that would basically open up the Big 12 to raiding. The Pac-12 could still make out of this like relative bandits. But it would take someone aggressive and competent at the helm. We'll see if that is George K.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Feb 15, 2023 13:24:52 GMT -8
We have an existing TV contract in place, just not a new one. We are still in a much better position than the ACC who is locked into their ESPN deal for another 13 years. The inference isnt difficult to comprehend. Oregon and Washington could bolt for Big 10 tomorrow if they got an invite...and most certainly would. And if Pac 12 negotiates a s%#tty contract...I'll be shocked if either signs a grant of rights deal. ACC at this point even with the s%#tty contract is in better shape than the Pac 12. Only Pac 12 fans are smart enough to call the ACC contract s%#tty when it pays them 36M per school while the Pac 12 us struggling to get to 30M per The ACC's media rights deal is only $32 million/year/team. The current Pac-12 contract pays $33 million. And that is so little that UCLA and USC have to leave. With 2-4 great adds, the Pac-12 could negotiate a media rights deal North of $32 million easily. Even if the Pac-12 cannot get $32 million right away, the fact that the ACC is under contract for the next 13 years, though, means that the Pac-12 could pass them in the meantime. We'll see.
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Post by RenoBeaver on Feb 15, 2023 14:00:38 GMT -8
The inference isnt difficult to comprehend. Oregon and Washington could bolt for Big 10 tomorrow if they got an invite...and most certainly would. And if Pac 12 negotiates a s%#tty contract...I'll be shocked if either signs a grant of rights deal. ACC at this point even with the s%#tty contract is in better shape than the Pac 12. Only Pac 12 fans are smart enough to call the ACC contract s%#tty when it pays them 36M per school while the Pac 12 us struggling to get to 30M per The ACC's media rights deal is only $32 million/year/team. The current Pac-12 contract pays $33 million. And that is so little that UCLA and USC have to leave. With 2-4 great adds, the Pac-12 could negotiate a media rights deal North of $32 million easily. Even if the Pac-12 cannot get $32 million right away, the fact that the ACC is under contract for the next 13 years, though, means that the Pac-12 could pass them in the meantime. We'll see. www.wralsportsfan.com/big-ten-signs-huge-new-tv-deals-increasing-revenue-gap-with-acc/20422465/Says here 36M per school in 20/21. I'll assume more in 22/23. With 2 to 4 great adds? Could? The best it can do is matching what they get now? Btw, SDSU...SMU...and two other G5 schools aren't great adds. Not in terms of revenue generators. They're at best bandaids.
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Post by Judge Smails on Feb 15, 2023 14:08:05 GMT -8
The ACC's media rights deal is only $32 million/year/team. The current Pac-12 contract pays $33 million. And that is so little that UCLA and USC have to leave. With 2-4 great adds, the Pac-12 could negotiate a media rights deal North of $32 million easily. Even if the Pac-12 cannot get $32 million right away, the fact that the ACC is under contract for the next 13 years, though, means that the Pac-12 could pass them in the meantime. We'll see. www.wralsportsfan.com/big-ten-signs-huge-new-tv-deals-increasing-revenue-gap-with-acc/20422465/Says here 36M per school in 20/21. I'll assume more in 22/23. With 2 to 4 great adds? Could? The best it can do is matching what they get now? Btw, SDSU...SMU...and two other G5 schools aren't great adds. Not in terms of revenue generators. They're at best bandaids. The ACC distributed more $$ in 20/21 than in other years because due to the pandemic, Notre Dame was a full member of the conference for that year. ND shared money from their NBC contract with the conference during that period. That inflated the results for that year.
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Post by RenoBeaver on Feb 15, 2023 14:19:35 GMT -8
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Post by Judge Smails on Feb 15, 2023 14:46:31 GMT -8
They haven't produced their final numbers for 21/22, but it also helps that they made almost $36.5 million from the NCAA basketball tournament last year. If we had some better results in basketball, that would help the Pac 12. The Pac 12 only earned in $14 million in units from the 2022 tournament. The ACC also gets better football bowl payouts then the PAC 12. Money earned from postseason basketball and football is not included in the TV contract money. We were only discussing the TV contracts.
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Post by 93beav on Feb 15, 2023 16:55:08 GMT -8
Supposedly news came out today that CBS and Turner are no longer bidding for PAC-12 properties. Maybe Turner was the new player that was mentioned (I think by Canzano) that came onto the scene after the New Year? Look, every other conference is going to make bad remarks about the PAC-12 because they want them to die. They see the writing on the wall and the unfortunate situation college football is heading towards. They want to cherry pick programs from the PAC and build up their base. I still think a PAC-ACC partnership with one weekly cross-over game would be great, and could help both sides add some revenue. In my dream world we poach some existing programs from existing P5 conferences, but that isn't happening, either. For now, I guess the best we can hope for is something around $34/$35 million that includes exposure across multiple channels (like ESPN, Amazon, Apple, etc.) to increase brand awareness as no one has really seen the teams thanks to the PAC12 Network fiasco. But to get to that number, you either have to do a one time sale of the PAC-12 Network facilities, equipment, etc. or find some way to do a lease. I'd take a lease because then it's reoccuring...but what do I know. A couple more months and this board could probably leverage enough money to buy the PAC-12.
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Post by seastape on Feb 15, 2023 18:48:17 GMT -8
My starting point at this particular time is that I do not have a lot of faith in the leadership of the Pac 12 conference to get it out of the situation we find ourselves in. This includes Kliavkoff as well as the Presidents and Board of the Pac 12 conference. At the same time, the Pac 12 finds itself in a much more difficult position at the present time than any other Power 5 conference at this particular time. To wit: 1) Need anything be said about the Big 10 and the SEC? Their only problem is to figure out how to keep their embarrassment of riches going for the foreseeable future. That includes NIL as well as media rights. 2) The Big 12 had the biggest chunk of itself ripped out by the SEC but since it was the first conference to be so raided in this latest round of conference realignment, they have had the most time to adjust to the blow. They quickly went out and got 4 of the best Group of 5 properties out there, including BYU, which I bet the Pac 12 would have loved to have had a crack at after the LA schools shafted the rest of us. And now, Texas and Oklahoma are poised to give the Big 12 $100 million so they can leave early. 3) The ACC has a similar problem as the Pac 12 in that it's best properties are a threat to leave the conference as soon as their media rights deal is done. But really, it's going to take dissolution for any ACC teams to leave the conference because of the high exit fees. And while their grant of rights deal is weak compared to the SEC--Clemson got $36 million last year--it is a steady income through 2036. If it really becomes too big (too small?) of a problem, the teams can dissolve the conference and seek greener pastures elsewhere. And then there is the beleaguered Pac 12. --Our biggest programs in football and basketball just ditched us. --Those two were crappy flag-bearers in the recent past. UCLA has been a mixed bag (for them) in basketball for the past 30 years and USC has been underperforming (for them) in football since Carroll left. Now they're on the way up just in time to leave. --They also blocked our conference from getting better back when OU and UT gave us a look. Couldn't stand the competition. I'm sure they'll be great in the Big 10. --And they ain't gonna give us $100 million in exit fees on their way out the door. --No, the Pac 12 has the opposite of that scenario: our former commissioner failed to keep track of the money and now the Pac 12 owes $50 million payback for overpayments. Scott also blew a lot of money on over-priced overhead. --The two biggest athletic revenue generators left in the Pac 12, uo and UW, would be gone yesterday if the Big 10 flashed itself at them. Then the next four biggest would bolt to the Big 12. The conference sits atop a knife edge of uncertainty. --The Pac 12 most likely needs more teams to secure a grant of rights deal worth anything, so they are going after SDSU, the best Group of 5 program left in the west, and...SMU? which generates the 6th most football revenue in Texas and would be 10th in the Pac 12, ahead of Colorado and OSU? One team out of Texas? How soon will SMU leave if given the right opportunity even if they do join? --And now the Pac 12 is trying to get a new media rights deal. --The Big 12 and SEC have gobbled up the best deals with Fox and ESPN. The rest are going to get the scraps. Who could do a good job in this scenario? Could anyone get us near the Big 10 or SEC deal? (No). How many people could get us a better deal than what the Big 12 is likely getting? The disadvantages against the Pac 12 are stacked. I can't blame this on Kliavkoff, who walked into a mine field with no idea what was coming down the pike. If he gets us near the roughly $31 million/team/year that the Big 12 is expecting, I'll call him a miracle worker. s%#t, if the Pac 12 survives another ten years I'll be impressed. I wouldn't trade for Kliavkoff's job for anything. 2) The $100 million. That's why Oklahoma and Texas are staying for another year, right? They were going to leave early and now everyone realizes that they would owe the $100 million, so they will stick it out through 2024. Now, the Big 12 may have to buy out Oklahoma and Texas to make everything sync up right. The Pac-12's contract runs out a year earlier than the Big 12's, which is why there is not a $100 million-type issue. The Comcast money may or may not be a thing. Comcast is alleging that they overpaid. You and I both have seen hundreds of people that allege things that don't pan out. And that issue may not be all bad, because it might confound UCLA and USC's efforts to leave clean. Settle the issue or stick it out, kids! I am not sold that it does exist, and I am not sold that, if it does exist, it is necessarily a terrible thing. That may still work out in the conference's favor. You plan for the future based upon knowns. Unknowns can throw a wrench into things, as you know. If Oklahoma and Texas stick it out another year, that would basically open up the Big 12 to raiding. The Pac-12 could still make out of this like relative bandits. But it would take someone aggressive and competent at the helm. We'll see if that is George K. That's incorrect. The latest news is that Texas and Oklahoma have agreed to pay the Big 12 $100 million so they can get to the SEC after the 2023 season. They are gone after this year. The Comcast thing could be wrong, we'll see. But there's a fair amount of evidence that it's a real thing and that Pac 12 will have to pay it back. That's a serious blow. And therefore...Pretty unlikely that the Pac 12 raids the Big 12. The Big 12 has stability right now. The Pac? No. I am of the mind that the Pac 12 may, out of necessity, have to make the best deal they can for the 1st and 2nd tier rights and then keep the Pac 12 network going for the rest. Only this time a way must be found to get a deal with all of the cable/satellite/streaming providers so that it is easily accessible by everyone. If the Pac 12 network is available to everyone who does not rely on an antenna, then perhaps the Pac can raise a lot of money with advertising. I don't expect the Pac 12 to get a great deal this time around. It would not surprise me to see it dissolve within the next ten years. But I am a pessimist. Always have been. This is yet another situation that I would love to be proven wrong.
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Post by speakthetruth on Feb 15, 2023 18:53:13 GMT -8
If I was a media company thinking of forking out many hundreds of millions of dollars I would sure want to know what teams are in the league before I considered the investment. I don't understand why the wait on announcing the other teams now.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Feb 15, 2023 19:00:57 GMT -8
If I was a media company thinking of forking out many hundreds of millions of dollars I would sure want to know what teams are in the league before I considered the investment. I don't understand why the wait on announcing the other teams now. The media companies probably want the schools in place, and the schools and the league probably wants the contract in place. My guess is there are probably more than just two schools involved and getting that many entities on the same page is a very tricky deal.
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Post by speakthetruth on Feb 15, 2023 19:19:20 GMT -8
Sign up smu and Texas San Antonio and San Diego state and unlv and get it done. Throw in gonzaga for basketball
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Post by beaver1989 on Feb 15, 2023 19:37:47 GMT -8
The Pac 10 used to be enough for our fan base for many years.
It is just amazing how the changes in history, geography, money, NIL, size of the conference, TV, & keeping up with the 'SEC/Big 10 Joneses' is directing everything.
If we add or don't add two teams, I'm cool either way.
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Post by beaver1989 on Feb 15, 2023 20:27:54 GMT -8
The Pac 10 used to be enough for our fan base for many years. It is just amazing how the changes in history, geography, money, NIL, size of the conference, TV, & keeping up with the 'SEC/Big 10 Joneses' is directing everything. If we add or don't add two teams, I'm cool either way. Also, never forget that the 'going rogue' traitor/mercenary for money schools are USC & UCLA, they're the dumb s%#ts in this sordid affair. Eventually, they'll have "buyers remorse" and gravitate back to where they belong by 2030 or 2032, after their delusions "go bust" over travel time, getting their asses kicked by Ohio St, Michigan, & cold weather. "It's just a matter of time."
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Feb 15, 2023 21:06:04 GMT -8
The Pac 10 used to be enough for our fan base for many years. It is just amazing how the changes in history, geography, money, NIL, size of the conference, TV, & keeping up with the 'SEC/Big 10 Joneses' is directing everything. If we add or don't add two teams, I'm cool either way. Also, never forget that the 'going rogue' traitor/mercenary for money schools are USC & UCLA, they're the dumb s%#ts in this sordid affair. Eventually, they'll have "buyers remorse" and gravitate back to where they belong by 2030 or 2032, after their delusions "go bust" over travel time, getting their asses kicked by Ohio St, Michigan, & cold weather. "It's just a matter of time." I agree with this. If the Pac-12 can hang together for a couple of years, UCLA and USC will realize the error of their ways. Oregon State had to go independent for five years in the late '50s and early '60s before UCLA and USC realized that they were being idiots. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. If the Pac-12 can survive into 2028, things look a lot brighter.
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