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Post by chinmusic on Jan 26, 2023 23:23:37 GMT -8
A roster exercise - working again without that elusive official roster. The impact of new NCAA legislation cannot be exaggerated, it has created a new dimension for college coaches in recruiting, roster management and the wise use of NIL and the collectives. Recruiting has become transformed with NIL payments and the one-time transfer rule via the transfer portal. Planning and allowing for transfers must now be factored in along with graduation and early MLB Draft losses. Failure to assess and plan correctly can destabilize a roster and set a program back a year or two. I believe Oregon State's coaching staff recognized those issues and is ahead of the curve in maintaining equilibrium with their roster. Some analysis is indicative of a smart approach and insulating against position shortfall in the future. Let's take a look by crunching some numbers; F ALL ROSTER BREAKDOWNIf the reporting was accurate, the Beavers had 50 players participate in Fall Practices. Breaking that down, we see; 28 roster players from 2022 returning to play the 2023 season. OSU signed 3 JuCo transfers. OSU signed 3 transfers from four-year schools. OSU signed 16 High School athletes If you analyze the 50 player practice roster, the class breakdown would be: Seniors 4 Juniors 12 Red Shirt Juniors 1 Sophomores 12 Red Shirt Sophomores 1 Freshman 16 Red Shirt Frosh 4 BREAKDOWN BY POSITION:A breakdown by position would look something like this with a word of caution here. Players are identified by PRIMARY position with the understanding most players have SECONDARY positions they have also played. One of this staff's recruiting strengths is evaluating "position flexibility" capability, and recruiting that skill where possible. OSU has players that are capable of being equally skilled at 2 or 3 different positions. Garrett Forrester for example, was recruited as a 3B and C by college suitors but ended up playing 1B at Oregon State. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Garrett play some 3B this year for the Beavers. Again, working without an official OSU '23 roster the primary position assignments involved some guesswork. With the exception of a slight imbalance of pitching, this roster is well balanced in terms of talent, and depth at each of the position groups. I believe there are 8 LH hitters on the 50 man roster but only 3 LHP. RHP - 24 LHP - 3 C - 3 IF - 10 OF - 9 UTL - 1 SOME THOUGHTS:1. In compliance with the NCAA active roster limit of 35 players, plus up to 5 more to accommodate any players that were granted the additional 2020 Covid year. Oregon State has 4 players qualified (Dernedde, McDowell, Lattery, Brown) which would allow us to carry 39 players in 2023, then revert back to the 35 limit in the following year. The Beaver staff must cut 11 players prior to their opening game. The rationale in making those cuts is material for an interesting thread on this board. 2. Since pitchers make up 54% of the Fall Roster, I suspect that might be a starting point on the topic of "roster cuts". Logic would dictate, the Beavs probably do not need 27 pitchers on their roster this season. We know that at least two will be red-shirted (transfer Noah Ferguson and freshman Isaac Hill). It might be a fair assumption to see 7 or 8 of the 11 cuts made will be pitchers. We have to keep in mind that the Beavs will run a little heavy on pitchers because of Coach Dorman's belief in one inning (or less) relief appearances and we will carry red-shirts. I believe Injury avoidance, fresh arms and a "different look every inning' are at the core of that thinking. 3. With only 4 Seniors and barring any transfers, with perhaps only 1 or 2 draft prospects, the Beavers could return as many as 30 players for the 2024 season while welcoming the 2024 recruiting class that currently holds 13 strong commitments that include a half dozen highly touted prep pitchers. Back to the cutting board 4. A careful review of this Beaver roster reveals quality and quantity (depth) at every position. It is demonstrative of a clear coaching philosophy in place and dictating the makeup of the ideal OSU recruit. Pitching and defense have been a Beaver staple for a long time and now there appears to be an added emphasis on exceptional speed which translates to wins both on offense and defense. Led by Gavin Turley's blistering 6.29 sixty, six freshmen alone have recorded sub 7.0 sixty yard dash times. Returning players Reed, Bazzana, and McDowell will also be part of the "Steals on Wheels" group. 5. Baseball writers analyzing this '23 Beaver squad project almost 70% of the 39 man roster will be Freshman and Sophomores. From that perspective, yes, this is a young Beaver squad, and in some areas relatively inexperienced. I have seen the term "transitional year" used in describing OSU's 2023 prospects, but I don't think the coaches, the players and their great fans are thinking that way at all. The team is focused on improving their skills, playing great baseball and their pursuit of a CWS appearance. 6. The Beavers were relatively inactive in Portal activity. The 6 transfers appeared to come through conventional recruiting channels. Our coaches seem to prefer recruiting prep players and developing them within the OSU system as opposed to using the transfer portal to fill a hole or prop up the roster.
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Post by rainmanrich on Jan 27, 2023 10:01:19 GMT -8
Nice work Chin. Appreciate the breakdown.
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Post by ricke71 on Jan 29, 2023 18:05:37 GMT -8
Ditto - nice numbers breakdown. Agreed, Pitchers will account for several of the cuts. IMHO, perhaps even 50%.
Depending on Fall/January-very early Feb. performances of the new arrivals (Pitchers), a few returning Pitchers could perhaps not make the roster. Grewe and Case come to mind - neither of whom have thrown a pitch for the Beavs, in competition, since 4/18/2022. Grewe had a somewhat better Summer 2022 than Case.
I guess we'll know in less than 3 weeks from now (sometime before noon on February 17).
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Post by babeav on Jan 30, 2023 9:20:04 GMT -8
Ditto - nice numbers breakdown. Agreed, Pitchers will account for several of the cuts. IMHO, perhaps even 50%. Depending on Fall/January-very early Feb. performances of the new arrivals (Pitchers), a few returning Pitchers could perhaps not make the roster. Grewe and Case come to mind - neither of whom have thrown a pitch for the Beavs, in competition, since 4/18/2022. Grewe had a somewhat better Summer 2022 than Case. I guess we'll know in less than 3 weeks from now (sometime before noon on February 17). Case isn’t listed on the roster distributed at the Diamond Dinner.
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Post by ricke71 on Jan 30, 2023 9:55:39 GMT -8
Ditto - nice numbers breakdown. Agreed, Pitchers will account for several of the cuts. IMHO, perhaps even 50%. Depending on Fall/January-very early Feb. performances of the new arrivals (Pitchers), a few returning Pitchers could perhaps not make the roster. Grewe and Case come to mind - neither of whom have thrown a pitch for the Beavs, in competition, since 4/18/2022. Grewe had a somewhat better Summer 2022 than Case. I guess we'll know in less than 3 weeks from now (sometime before noon on February 17). Case isn’t listed on the roster distributed at the Diamond Dinner. Interesting that Case wasn't listed. Could find no hints on Twitter, etc. In looking around, I did come across a (7-1/2 month old) piece from Beaver Blitz / 247 Sports / Carter Bahns with a guesstimated "Way Too Early" 2023 Starting Line-up. It goes to show just how fluid the college baseball scene can be: C Gavin Logan
1B Garret Forrester
2B Jabin Trosky
3B Matthew Gretler
SS Kyle Dernedde
LF Tyree Reed
CF Travis Bazzana
RF Brady Kasper
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Post by joecool on Jan 30, 2023 10:30:15 GMT -8
Ditto - nice numbers breakdown. Agreed, Pitchers will account for several of the cuts. IMHO, perhaps even 50%. Depending on Fall/January-very early Feb. performances of the new arrivals (Pitchers), a few returning Pitchers could perhaps not make the roster. Grewe and Case come to mind - neither of whom have thrown a pitch for the Beavs, in competition, since 4/18/2022. Grewe had a somewhat better Summer 2022 than Case. I guess we'll know in less than 3 weeks from now (sometime before noon on February 17). Case isn’t listed on the roster distributed at the Diamond Dinner. Anyone have a copy of that roster that they could post here?
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Post by tamatrix on Jan 30, 2023 21:29:04 GMT -8
I don't think going to get in trouble for sharing this from Blitz....if I do, my bad!
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Post by joecool on Jan 30, 2023 22:23:57 GMT -8
I don't think going to get in trouble for sharing this from Blitz....if I do, my bad! Dude! Thank you!!
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Post by joecool on Jan 30, 2023 22:36:29 GMT -8
Looks like 8 cuts need to be made.
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Post by chinmusic on Jan 30, 2023 22:41:14 GMT -8
This looks more like the fall roster with 47 players.
I believe we can only carry 35+4 on the official roster this year and red-shirts count.
What will be the disposition of the extra 8 players?
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Post by chinmusic on Jan 30, 2023 23:32:46 GMT -8
I calculated the fall roster at 50 based on returning players plus incoming recruits minus those players that left via graduation, transfer, or signing pro contracts.
The 47 man roster posted is the fall roster that reflects the loss of 3 players along the way. The MIA's are:
LHP David Case (class of '21) RHP Cole Nelson (Class of '21) - He battled injuries last year. RHP Connor Pote (class of '22) - From Calgary, Alberta.
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Post by vhalum92 on Jan 31, 2023 10:32:33 GMT -8
Love it.... A few observations from this Fall Roster Bazzana weighing in at over 200 lbs, I've seen pics .... he is muscled up and only 6 pounds lighter than G. Forrester... that second part is a little hard to believe. Also note that Bazzana is listed as and INF and the Carter Baines guess of a line up I think is not going to be our norm. He is missing Turley who I anticipate will be in the majority of the starting lineups. I'm probably overly fixated on the weights... Mason at 203 lbs... that dude is tall and thick... I think he weighed more than that last year... maybe he trimmed down but I think he has a big frame to add muscle and beef up. I haven't knowingly seen pictures of Kreig but he must be a beast of a boy. Getting excited... almost 2 weeks away
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Post by ricke71 on Jan 31, 2023 11:24:32 GMT -8
Love it.... A few observations from this Fall Roster Bazzana weighing in at over 200 lbs, I've seen pics .... he is muscled up and only 6 pounds lighter than G. Forrester... that second part is a little hard to believe. Also note that Bazzana is listed as and INF and the Carter Baines guess of a line up I think is not going to be our norm. He is missing Turley who I anticipate will be in the majority of the starting lineups. I'm probably overly fixated on the weights... Mason at 203 lbs... that dude is tall and thick... I think he weighed more than that last year... maybe he trimmed down but I think he has a big frame to add muscle and beef up. I haven't knowingly seen pictures of Kreig but he must be a beast of a boy. Getting excited... almost 2 weeks away Krieg really mashed it against Gonzaga in the Fall exhibition game. Here's his HS pic from Perfect Game 09d1d85a2275582e9dad-7b3e649a230e2ba2cff912d8af17e0b5.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/2157471.jpeg
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jan 31, 2023 13:46:36 GMT -8
I don't think going to get in trouble for sharing this from Blitz....if I do, my bad! Four lefties on the roster last year. At this point, you have to figure that Nelson Keljo, Tyler Mejia, and Justin Thorsteinson have to be three of the safest players on the roster. Thorsteinson can hit. In fact, Thorsteinson is 1/1 in his career. Although, they pinch ran for him in his only plate appearance. Mejia played first base in high school, so he is another player who can fill multiple roles in a pinch. I hear good things about Keljo, but I have no idea how Division 1 ready he will be. Among position players, I hear good things about Ely Kennel, but I have no idea, if or where he would fit in. At most you see what, one or two cuts among pitchers? The rest of the cuts come from position players?
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Post by joecool on Jan 31, 2023 13:53:50 GMT -8
We know Ferguson and Hill are out for the year with injuries.
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