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Post by grayman on Jan 21, 2023 12:09:26 GMT -8
TVO talked about the team not playing soft and how they want to make the NCAA Tournament after the win over UO...so what do the Beavers need to do from here on out to make that happen?
They sit at 11-8. The lost weekend against UW and WSU could be a killer. It will be tough to overcome. The Beavers most likely need a big upset or two to offset it.
I will assume that the Beavers we saw against UO and Arizona is going to be the team that takes the court for the rest of the season (a big assumption, I know).
They get Stanford next. A win there seems unlikely.
A split in the Bay Area is an absolute. The Beavers beat Cal. 12-9.
Here's where it gets interesting. Utah and Colorado come to town. This probably will make or break the season as far as getting to the NCAAs.
I'm going to give the sweep to OSU in this scenario. 14-9.
OSU splits at UCLA and USC. 15-10.
Another big road trip to Washington. The Beavers make up for the lost weekend with a sweep. 17-10.
Finally, we have ASU and UA in Corvallis.
The Beavers beat ASU. Is that good enough to get into the NCAA Tournament without winning the Pac-12 Tournament? They probably need a win against UA as well.
I think if they go 18-11, they will have to make a deep run in the Pac-12s. Beat Arizona and they probably just need at least one win in the Pac-12s.
It's not going to be easy, that's for sure.
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Post by treasurevalleybeav on Jan 21, 2023 13:16:02 GMT -8
I think they need 19 wins counting the conf tourney. If they get a few more wins over ranked teams they may be able to slide in w/ 18. But 19-12 should get it done. Being captain obvious, blowing the end of the Arizona really hurt.
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Post by grayman on Jan 21, 2023 13:27:15 GMT -8
I think they need 19 wins counting the conf tourney. If they get a few more wins over ranked teams they may be able to slide in w/ 18. But 19-12 should get it done. Being captain obvious, blowing the end of the Arizona really hurt. Yep...if they finish at Arizona and sweep the Washington schools, they are 14-5 right now and in a much better position. Even 13-6 wouldn't be all that bad. |
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Post by skyrider on Jan 21, 2023 13:32:10 GMT -8
My opinion here is that this one game (vs UO) tells us very little about what is to come. Unfortunately the very large preponderance of evidence indicates we will likely win perhaps 4 more games at best. That means the only route to the NCAA tournament will be to win the PAC12 Tournament. I think we all know what the odds are for that when you are in the bracket that requires 4 games in 4 days.
Nevertheless if nothing else comes from the game last night, if the Beavs can absorb and continue with the knowledge that they must play with more effort and determination each and every game then perhaps this will be a meaningful turning point for this team. I am skeptical because I just have not seen that effort and determination this year.
Go Beavs!
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Post by grayman on Jan 21, 2023 14:04:02 GMT -8
My opinion here is that this one game (vs UO) tells us very little about what is to come. Unfortunately the very large preponderance of evidence indicates we will likely win perhaps 4 more games at best. That means the only route to the NCAA tournament will be to win the PAC12 Tournament. I think we all know what the odds are for that when you are in the bracket that requires 4 games in 4 days.
Nevertheless if nothing else comes from the game last night, if the Beavs can absorb and continue with the knowledge that they must play with more effort and determination each and every game then perhaps this will be a meaningful turning point for this team. I am skeptical because I just have not seen that effort and determination this year.
Go Beavs!
You are probably right in that they most likely won't finish with enough wins to ensure a berth in the NCAA Tournament without winning or maybe making the title game of the Pac-12s. They have 10 games left. You say that they will at best go 4-6 to finish. Maybe. But I'm not convinced that the preponderance of evidence still points that way. What needs to be weighed is whether this team is more at the level of the team we saw against UO and UA or the mess we saw against UW and WSU. I would argue that the Washington weekend is more likely the anomaly between the two. The Beavers hadn't exactly been playing great basketball through the first half of the season, but they only had one embarrassing loss and that was to an LSU team that is 19-0 and ranked No. 3 in the country. They've been competitive in all other games but just absolutely derailed against WSU and UW. The addition of Gardiner and her continued improvement is another major factor. Her effect is starting to be felt throughout the team. It's just such a different situation when you add another big piece like her. |
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Post by skyrider on Jan 21, 2023 14:08:32 GMT -8
Excellent observations as usual Grayman! I would like to be more positive about the rest of the season so your comments were encouraging!
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Post by grayman on Jan 21, 2023 14:23:03 GMT -8
I said the Beavers probably would not win enough games to get in unless they at least made the Pac-12 title game, but that might not be true. If the Beavers even go something like 6-4 with maybe a win over Arizona, then they will most likely be considered a bubble team. It might take just two wins in the conference tournament to get in. So it's most likely not just some crazy longshot.
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Post by 411500 on Jan 21, 2023 14:50:37 GMT -8
I loved the Beaver win last night as much as anyone. It was doubly delicious since it came over Graves and the Ducks. The team was tough and gritty and TvO showed signs of her better self...
But, despite the great win, this team has the same problems today as yesterday and the day before.
It has not a single consistent 3-point shooter and a good team needs at least 2; it is very weak in perimeter defense; it often falls under apart under intense defensive pressure; and, it has below average team speed.
Mitrovic played well and everyone was a bit giddy about what a good showing she had.
Well, look at the numbers and see what they tell us: she was 4-9 from the field; she was 1-3 from the FT line; she had a total of 3 offensive boards, and she committed 3 turnovers.
For a 6-9 starting centre in the PAC - these numbers are not special - not even close. Mitrovic should be delivering games like last night on a routine basis.
I'm still a fan. Have been for a long time. Will be for longer.
But I have a very good memory, and I have no recollection of a team short on speed, and weak at shooting ever making its way to the tourney. Ever.
GO BEAVS!!
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Post by beaveragain on Jan 21, 2023 14:56:33 GMT -8
A chunk of OSU's troubles are that they don't have a scheduler who knows how to game the system like other teams do. And SOS plays a big part in how you are ranked.
For instance- OSU's record against ranked teams is 2 wins 5 losses, UO's record is 0 wins out 4. And yet OSU's schedule is ranked 30th in the country and UO's is ranked 13th. SOS is calculated such that OSU playing and beating ranked teams isn't as important as UO only playing 3 teams ranked over 200 and OSU playing 5 teams over 200.
UConn has only played 5 ranked teams and they have the top SOS.
In the future dropping #325 NC Central and playing #164 Southern Utah instead would have given OSU the same w/l but would give them a nice jump in rankings/SOS.
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Post by grayman on Jan 21, 2023 15:30:45 GMT -8
A chunk of OSU's troubles are that they don't have a scheduler who knows how to game the system like other teams do. And SOS plays a big part in how you are ranked. For instance- OSU's record against ranked teams is 2 wins 5 losses, UO's record is 0 wins out 4. And yet OSU's schedule is ranked 30th in the country and UO's is ranked 13th. SOS is calculated such that OSU playing and beating ranked teams isn't as important as UO only playing 3 teams ranked over 200 and OSU playing 5 teams over 200. UConn has only played 5 ranked teams and they have the top SOS. In the future dropping #325 NC Central and playing #164 Southern Utah instead would have given OSU the same w/l but would give them a nice jump in rankings/SOS. SOS is calculated based on the opponent's win percentage. Rankings are not taken into account. Much more is taken into account when putting together the NCAA Tournament bracket. That definitely includes wins over ranked teams. I think you are really taking exception to different rating systems. |
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Post by grayman on Jan 21, 2023 15:50:26 GMT -8
I loved the Beaver win last night as much as anyone. It was doubly delicious since it came over Graves and the Ducks. The team was tough and gritty and TvO showed signs of her better self... But, despite the great win, this team has the same problems today as yesterday and the day before. It has not a single consistent 3-point shooter and a good team needs at least 2; it is very weak in perimeter defense; it often falls under apart under intense defensive pressure; and, it has below average team speed. Mitrovic played well and everyone was a bit giddy about what a good showing she had. Well, look at the numbers and see what they tell us: she was 4-9 from the field; she was 1-3 from the FT line; she had a total of 3 offensive boards, and she committed 3 turnovers. For a 6-9 starting centre in the PAC - these numbers are not special - not even close. Mitrovic should be delivering games like last night on a routine basis. I'm still a fan. Have been for a long time. Will be for longer. But I have a very good memory, and I have no recollection of a team short on speed, and weak at shooting ever making its way to the tourney. Ever.GO BEAVS!! Mit had a good game. But I don't think anyone is thinking that she's suddenly going to be a major impact, star-type player for the Beavers. It's good that she makes up part of a good combination at post with Beers. You are right about the 3-point shooting and 3-point defense. Both areas need drastic improvement. The Beavers didn't falter against UO's pressure, although I was a little puzzled that Graves didn't go to that well more often. Yes, team speed is still somewhat of an issue, but Timea being able to get on the court mitigates it somewhat in the frontcourt. It helps when Yeaney is playing well enough to stay on the court for good minutes and honestly, I think the fact that Mannen goes so hard all the time makes up for any lack of quickness/speed she might have to a degree. And she could very well be quicker than one might think anyway. Still need to add speed in the backcourt for next season (hopefully coming at point guard). |
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Post by beaverwbb fan on Jan 21, 2023 16:07:39 GMT -8
I loved the Beaver win last night as much as anyone. It was doubly delicious since it came over Graves and the Ducks. The team was tough and gritty and TvO showed signs of her better self... But, despite the great win, this team has the same problems today as yesterday and the day before. It has not a single consistent 3-point shooter and a good team needs at least 2; it is very weak in perimeter defense; it often falls under apart under intense defensive pressure; and, it has below average team speed. Mitrovic played well and everyone was a bit giddy about what a good showing she had. Well, look at the numbers and see what they tell us: she was 4-9 from the field; she was 1-3 from the FT line; she had a total of 3 offensive boards, and she committed 3 turnovers. For a 6-9 starting centre in the PAC - these numbers are not special - not even close. Mitrovic should be delivering games like last night on a routine basis. I'm still a fan. Have been for a long time. Will be for longer. But I have a very good memory, and I have no recollection of a team short on speed, and weak at shooting ever making its way to the tourney. Ever.GO BEAVS!! I think the more important numbers come if you look at Oregon’s stats. Their four forwards average 26.5 PPG. They had 8 points on 2-15 shooting. Obviously Jelena wasn’t entirely responsible for that, but I was very impressed with her defense last night and I do think she played a role in that (forced Vanslooten into some tough shots). She’s not going to become a 65% FG shooter or suddenly become a super quick post player, but she’s a solid one when she’s finding the open teammates and making the right reads, finishing strong, and making it difficult for the opponents to score in the paint. |
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Post by beaveragain on Jan 21, 2023 16:37:01 GMT -8
A chunk of OSU's troubles are that they don't have a scheduler who knows how to game the system like other teams do. And SOS plays a big part in how you are ranked. For instance- OSU's record against ranked teams is 2 wins 5 losses, UO's record is 0 wins out 4. And yet OSU's schedule is ranked 30th in the country and UO's is ranked 13th. SOS is calculated such that OSU playing and beating ranked teams isn't as important as UO only playing 3 teams ranked over 200 and OSU playing 5 teams over 200. UConn has only played 5 ranked teams and they have the top SOS. In the future dropping #325 NC Central and playing #164 Southern Utah instead would have given OSU the same w/l but would give them a nice jump in rankings/SOS. SOS is calculated based on the opponent's win percentage. Rankings are not taken into account. Much more is taken into account when putting together the NCAA Tournament bracket. That definitely includes wins over ranked teams. I think you are really taking exception to different rating systems. Neither of our statements are really correct, I was using rankings as short hand. |
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Post by grayman on Jan 21, 2023 17:04:47 GMT -8
SOS is calculated based on the opponent's win percentage. Rankings are not taken into account. Much more is taken into account when putting together the NCAA Tournament bracket. That definitely includes wins over ranked teams. I think you are really taking exception to different rating systems. Neither of our statements are really correct, I was using rankings as short hand. No, your statement on how SOS is calculated is incorrect. And SOS can't really be "gamed," I think you are mixing up SOS and rating systems, as I said. SOS is one aspect used by rating systems. Rankings are a separate thing altogether. |
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Post by ricke71 on Jan 21, 2023 17:11:05 GMT -8
My opinion here is that this one game (vs UO) tells us very little about what is to come. Unfortunately the very large preponderance of evidence indicates we will likely win perhaps 4 more games at best. That means the only route to the NCAA tournament will be to win the PAC12 Tournament. I think we all know what the odds are for that when you are in the bracket that requires 4 games in 4 days.
Nevertheless if nothing else comes from the game last night, if the Beavs can absorb and continue with the knowledge that they must play with more effort and determination each and every game then perhaps this will be a meaningful turning point for this team. I am skeptical because I just have not seen that effort and determination this year.
Go Beavs!
"will likely win perhaps 4 more games at best".........However - "the preponderance of the evidence" is pre-Timea....and pre-Mitrovic 'toughening up' (hope it lasts)...and during the oddly uncharacteristic Talia shooting doldrums. If Mit plays tough... if Timea continues on her current trajectory.... if Talia hit's 3's at 35% (which she has done only once in the last 9 games - and that was yesterday), and Bendu / Raegan / Noelle / AJ / Shalexxus continue to contribute - then I can see the Beavs winning 7 more conference games, pre-tourney - for a 10-8 conference record. That's a big ask, but given the make-up and potential of this team it actually seems possible. This group has a special, and sorta unique, personality. |
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