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Post by beaverstever on Dec 20, 2021 10:51:33 GMT -8
I continue to still dislike the overall construct of this team in terms of any significant postseason upside potential, but yesterday showed some promise in covering deficiencies.
- Frosh or not Greta and TvO are not confident ball handlers around quick guards, and for good reason. Both of them had their pockets picked yesterday, and would have had it happen much more but they are clearly being taught to pass over the top rather than dribble. Last year, it would happen to TvO and she seemed to be able to brush it off as luck by the defense, but they year she seems to be fully aware (too aware) that it's a deficiency in her game. That stuff becomes a distraction and impacts a players overall confidence, and it shows in her current game, IMO (shooting %, confidence on her drives, hesitation in her playmaking). She needs to figure out how to make guards go through her to get to her dribble, because nobody is going through her, they'll end up on the floor.
- Greta had a really nice game, and hopefully will do wonders for her confidence. Pretty much all of her scoring was in the clutch stretch where UNI was making a push and she was the one hitting shots to answer. I fully believe that games goes down to the wire without her stepping up and making it a comfortable win. We haven't had that player this year (I thought it would be TvO), and so that bodes really well if she becomes that player for us.
- That 3rd quarter was rough, and is how teams will invite us to play. Guards were throwing really long, hard-to-handle entry passes to the posts that were mostly TOs, and even when caught, forced the posts out of their spots. Those entry passes work when the post is flashing open from a weak side cut; they absolutely do not work when the post is bodied up. This passes are extremely telegraphed as well; I understand the passers have to read post's position, but wow, we have to get better and our entry passes in those situation. I think the guards need to penetrate and make it a shorter pass at times. But it's also on the posts - don't ask for a pass way up high when someone right in your lower back and you have no way of going and getting a high pass.
- Saw Taylor whip an entry pass out to Taya for a 3 where she had position but was double-teamed. I don't recall seeing her eve do that to date where she knew the situation and didn't hesitate to make the pass. Taya missed the shot unfortunately, but that bodes well if Taylor is finally reading the defensive situation ahead of the entry pass. Still need Taylor to read that she's been pushed off her spots and is into a low-percentage shot situation, rather than forcing those.
- Brown had a nice 2nd-half outside of her miss on an uncontested layup. She did take a 3 and missed, and I was glad she did - we have enough people struggling out there that are better shooters, we don't need her thinking that's where she needs to shoot either. I do like that she seems to be getting more comfortable with her back to the basket making moves.
- Both Adams and TvO still do a lot of probing of the defense without either any purpose, or the team isn't in sync. TvO can score in the post against virtually an guard, yet she's not going in there with that idea anymore, it seems. They should be clearing out for her when she drives, IMO - posts need to get their players away so she's 1:1 all the way there, and then when the double comes, TvO can find the open player. That's just not happening. Many times TvO is just looping through under the basket, and it is resulting in nothing; her penetration should be putting the defense into difficult decisions, but currently she's letting them off the hook. Pretty similar still with Adam's penetration, not much is usually coming of it. I do like that both are not picking up their dribble and getting turned over near the basket at least, but they need to figure out how to make it an advantage.
In general, there's no alpha scorers on this team so far, and I think we don't go far as a result even with significant improvement. Taylor can somewhat be that player against weaker teams, but not against the top of the Pac 12. TvO has too much responsibility to take on that role and be the PG. And we aren't shooting as a team from deep to make up for that deficiency. The only thing we are really elite at is our size, so potentially we can win with being ok on offense and shutting even good teams down on defense; I see that as our current best case with this group, at least at this point - but I just don't see us being able to do that against fast teams with size. I see our options looking very different though with next year's incoming class.
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Post by beaveragain on Dec 20, 2021 23:06:42 GMT -8
We have completely different visions of the "potential" of the team. OSU is #3 in total rebound rate (rate just means what % of the whatever that your team got), and #4 in total blocks rate. Also fun fact, #1 in not getting our shots blocked. The only top team better than the Beav's? They play out of South Carolina. Rebounds in particular are a major winner when it comes to the postseason. Anyone can have a bad shooting day, but good rebounding is pretty much a constant and can make up for that bad shooting day.
Currently the teams problem is that they aren't hitting their 3's and so teams are packing it in inside. If they can get close to last season's shooting success then everything will open up and there aren't many teams the Beav's couldn't hammer.
TvO- She was sloppy with the ball a couple of times against UNI and paid for it. But if she is such a slowbie then how did she get two blocks? And how did she win the 1 on 1 challenges in several camps against the top players in the country? I agree that her self confidence seems shaky right now and I think that is why Rueck had Tea starting at the PG.
Also, her passes inside are fastballs when a lob would be so much better. There are maybe 3-4 players in the country who could have a hope of stopping a lob inside to Mit, but I haven't seen one sent her way yet (by anyone). It's actually a problem with Rueck's teams. He recruits these tall players and then doesn't seem to work on lobbing passes inside to them, weird.
Tea and Talia's probing isn't working because other teams aren't biting. They are going to assume that the Beav's can't hit their outside shots so why follow our bigs when they go out. If Jones could nail some mid range shots then she'd get covered out there and Tea and Talia would have some driving room.
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Post by rgeorge on Dec 21, 2021 1:19:10 GMT -8
We have completely different visions of the "potential" of the team. OSU is #3 in total rebound rate (rate just means what % of the whatever that your team got), and #4 in total blocks rate. Also fun fact, #1 in not getting our shots blocked. The only top team better than the Beav's? They play out of South Carolina. Rebounds in particular are a major winner when it comes to the postseason. Anyone can have a bad shooting day, but good rebounding is pretty much a constant and can make up for that bad shooting day. Currently the teams problem is that they aren't hitting their 3's and so teams are packing it in inside. If they can get close to last season's shooting success then everything will open up and there aren't many teams the Beav's couldn't hammer. TvO- She was sloppy with the ball a couple of times against UNI and paid for it. But if she is such a slowbie then how did she get two blocks? And how did she win the 1 on 1 challenges in several camps against the top players in the country? I agree that her self confidence seems shaky right now and I think that is why Rueck had Tea starting at the PG. Also, her passes inside are fastballs when a lob would be so much better. There are maybe 3-4 players in the country who could have a hope of stopping a lob inside to Mit, but I haven't seen one sent her way yet (by anyone). It's actually a problem with Rueck's teams. He recruits these tall players and then doesn't seem to work on lobbing passes inside to them, weird. Tea and Talia's probing isn't working because other teams aren't biting. They are going to assume that the Beav's can't hit their outside shots so why follow our bigs when they go out. If Jones could nail some mid range shots then she'd get covered out there and Tea and Talia would have some driving room. Unfortunately you can cherry pick stats both ways... #63 in A/TO... if you turn it over after you board it, rebounds don't mean much; #98 FG% #171 FT%... of ya can't shoot it not getting your shots blocked really doesn't matter. Point being, this team is far from being a Pac12 contender let alone a post season threat. It's only 10 games in but poor shooting over a span of time vs some weak competition (RPI 121... 11th in Pac12, SOS 303... last, Net 65... 8th) tells a lot about "potential" when the competition is going to be considerably tougher. |
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Post by beaverstever on Dec 21, 2021 8:35:42 GMT -8
We have completely different visions of the "potential" of the team. OSU is #3 in total rebound rate (rate just means what % of the whatever that your team got), and #4 in total blocks rate. Also fun fact, #1 in not getting our shots blocked. The only top team better than the Beav's? They play out of South Carolina. Rebounds in particular are a major winner when it comes to the postseason. Anyone can have a bad shooting day, but good rebounding is pretty much a constant and can make up for that bad shooting day. Currently the teams problem is that they aren't hitting their 3's and so teams are packing it in inside. If they can get close to last season's shooting success then everything will open up and there aren't many teams the Beav's couldn't hammer. TvO- She was sloppy with the ball a couple of times against UNI and paid for it. But if she is such a slowbie then how did she get two blocks? And how did she win the 1 on 1 challenges in several camps against the top players in the country? I agree that her self confidence seems shaky right now and I think that is why Rueck had Tea starting at the PG. Also, her passes inside are fastballs when a lob would be so much better. There are maybe 3-4 players in the country who could have a hope of stopping a lob inside to Mit, but I haven't seen one sent her way yet (by anyone). It's actually a problem with Rueck's teams. He recruits these tall players and then doesn't seem to work on lobbing passes inside to them, weird. Tea and Talia's probing isn't working because other teams aren't biting. They are going to assume that the Beav's can't hit their outside shots so why follow our bigs when they go out. If Jones could nail some mid range shots then she'd get covered out there and Tea and Talia would have some driving room. On the rebounds, I’d be more happy about that if we were a dominant offensive-rebounding team, but we are not, being outside of the top 30 there. So the high rebounds are a function of our good defensive fg%, which is a Rueck staple - but we are only good there, not elite this year so far. We are also historically very good at Fg% ourselves, creating a huge fg% delta that wins games, but we are very average for fg% this year. On top of that, we are bottom 10 in TO margin - another Rueck staple that we have to overcome, and we’ve historically done that with Rebound and shooting percentage margins. Neither of those are happening anywhere to the degree we need it to be so far. As for blocked shots, I’m not sure that stat means much - I believe it factors into the TO margin if a possession changes, as well as the defensive fg% - so the blocked shot advantage isn’t helping us enough on those two significant stats to date. |
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Post by 411500 on Dec 21, 2021 9:16:25 GMT -8
This thread has some good quality analysis of the Beavs and their inability to deliver the top quality team performance many of us were expecting from them this year.
I think beaverstever's analysis is spot-on in almost all counts....
His observation that: "In general, there's no alpha scorers on this team so far, and I think we don't go far as a result even with significant improvement" is a very good one.
We don't have a consistent go to player when the defensive pressure is intense, and that will cause serious damage to any contender in the PAC...
For the past 8 years, or so, Rueck's teams have always held the trump-card of deadly 3-point shooting, and this year's team has not delivered on that critical phase of the game. And, as we approach January, it shows minimal signs of doing so.
I'm hoping for big improvements from this team. But as someone who does his best to analyze the game closely, I honestly don't know where it's going to come from...
In terms of personnel improvement, which is to say the improvement of individual players, we need to see BIG improvement in offensive production from Greta and Kennedy if this team is going to finish in the top 4 of the PAC.....
All analysis of this team, however, is tempered by the fact that it is still December....And it's possible for the team to produce excellence in areas it thus far has not...What puzzles me is where, and who, this excellence is going to come from!!
GO BEAVS!!
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Post by lotrader on Dec 21, 2021 10:55:13 GMT -8
We have completely different visions of the "potential" of the team. OSU is #3 in total rebound rate (rate just means what % of the whatever that your team got), and #4 in total blocks rate. Also fun fact, #1 in not getting our shots blocked. The only top team better than the Beav's? They play out of South Carolina. Rebounds in particular are a major winner when it comes to the postseason. Anyone can have a bad shooting day, but good rebounding is pretty much a constant and can make up for that bad shooting day. Currently the teams problem is that they aren't hitting their 3's and so teams are packing it in inside. If they can get close to last season's shooting success then everything will open up and there aren't many teams the Beav's couldn't hammer. TvO- She was sloppy with the ball a couple of times against UNI and paid for it. But if she is such a slowbie then how did she get two blocks? And how did she win the 1 on 1 challenges in several camps against the top players in the country? I agree that her self confidence seems shaky right now and I think that is why Rueck had Tea starting at the PG. Also, her passes inside are fastballs when a lob would be so much better. There are maybe 3-4 players in the country who could have a hope of stopping a lob inside to Mit, but I haven't seen one sent her way yet (by anyone). It's actually a problem with Rueck's teams. He recruits these tall players and then doesn't seem to work on lobbing passes inside to them, weird. Tea and Talia's probing isn't working because other teams aren't biting. They are going to assume that the Beav's can't hit their outside shots so why follow our bigs when they go out. If Jones could nail some mid range shots then she'd get covered out there and Tea and Talia would have some driving room. We must be watching from completely different vantage points. "Tea and Talia's probing isn't working....". In the last game, Tea scored the first 2 field goals "probing" through the key. And coach Rueck acknowledged that very fact. In the game vs Idaho, Tea had 7 assists? And again, coach Rueck acknowledged this fact. TvO is going to play point when Tea is not on the floor with TvO. But I'm glad that they are both in the lineup together at times. Rueck even had Greta play the point a few offensive series. We have Tea for 1-year, and without question, Tea is our best PG when it comes to ball handling, avoiding traps and double teams, and getting the ball upcourt quicker than any current guard on our squad. Coach has to be cognizant of keeping TvO positive and taking advantage of her scoring ability, but it will come from the wing position and the point. Until something changes, Tea is going to play point guard, and her minutes will only increase once we get into PAC-12 games where the opponent is pressing/trapping/double teaming our PG. |
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Post by jdogge on Dec 21, 2021 12:11:02 GMT -8
I continue to still dislike the overall construct of this team in terms of any significant postseason upside potential, but yesterday showed some promise in covering deficiencies. - Frosh or not Greta and TvO are not confident ball handlers around quick guards, and for good reason. Both of them had their pockets picked yesterday, and would have had it happen much more but they are clearly being taught to pass over the top rather than dribble. Last year, it would happen to TvO and she seemed to be able to brush it off as luck by the defense, but they year she seems to be fully aware (too aware) that it's a deficiency in her game. That stuff becomes a distraction and impacts a players overall confidence, and it shows in her current game, IMO (shooting %, confidence on her drives, hesitation in her playmaking). She needs to figure out how to make guards go through her to get to her dribble, because nobody is going through her, they'll end up on the floor. - Greta had a really nice game, and hopefully will do wonders for her confidence. Pretty much all of her scoring was in the clutch stretch where UNI was making a push and she was the one hitting shots to answer. I fully believe that games goes down to the wire without her stepping up and making it a comfortable win. We haven't had that player this year (I thought it would be TvO), and so that bodes really well if she becomes that player for us. - That 3rd quarter was rough, and is how teams will invite us to play. Guards were throwing really long, hard-to-handle entry passes to the posts that were mostly TOs, and even when caught, forced the posts out of their spots. Those entry passes work when the post is flashing open from a weak side cut; they absolutely do not work when the post is bodied up. This passes are extremely telegraphed as well; I understand the passers have to read post's position, but wow, we have to get better and our entry passes in those situation. I think the guards need to penetrate and make it a shorter pass at times. But it's also on the posts - don't ask for a pass way up high when someone right in your lower back and you have no way of going and getting a high pass. - Saw Taylor whip an entry pass out to Taya for a 3 where she had position but was double-teamed. I don't recall seeing her eve do that to date where she knew the situation and didn't hesitate to make the pass. Taya missed the shot unfortunately, but that bodes well if Taylor is finally reading the defensive situation ahead of the entry pass. Still need Taylor to read that she's been pushed off her spots and is into a low-percentage shot situation, rather than forcing those. - Brown had a nice 2nd-half outside of her miss on an uncontested layup. She did take a 3 and missed, and I was glad she did - we have enough people struggling out there that are better shooters, we don't need her thinking that's where she needs to shoot either. I do like that she seems to be getting more comfortable with her back to the basket making moves. - Both Adams and TvO still do a lot of probing of the defense without either any purpose, or the team isn't in sync. TvO can score in the post against virtually an guard, yet she's not going in there with that idea anymore, it seems. They should be clearing out for her when she drives, IMO - posts need to get their players away so she's 1:1 all the way there, and then when the double comes, TvO can find the open player. That's just not happening. Many times TvO is just looping through under the basket, and it is resulting in nothing; her penetration should be putting the defense into difficult decisions, but currently she's letting them off the hook. Pretty similar still with Adam's penetration, not much is usually coming of it. I do like that both are not picking up their dribble and getting turned over near the basket at least, but they need to figure out how to make it an advantage. In general, there's no alpha scorers on this team so far, and I think we don't go far as a result even with significant improvement. Taylor can somewhat be that player against weaker teams, but not against the top of the Pac 12. TvO has too much responsibility to take on that role and be the PG. And we aren't shooting as a team from deep to make up for that deficiency. The only thing we are really elite at is our size, so potentially we can win with being ok on offense and shutting even good teams down on defense; I see that as our current best case with this group, at least at this point - but I just don't see us being able to do that against fast teams with size. I see our options looking very different though with next year's incoming class. Great analysis. Thanks! This team needs a leader. We went from Syd to Mikayla to Aleah. Someone needs to step up carry the team through its droughts. Who might do that? |
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Post by beaveragain on Dec 21, 2021 14:07:05 GMT -8
rgeorge- Yes, passing and shooting are problems. But passing by a bunch of Freshman is going to be problematical until they get more practice at this level and I don't think it's impossible for them to greatly improve as the season goes along. And the Beav's for the past 10 years have been a top 10 three point shooting team and it seems that this also can improve.
"this team is far from being a Pac12 contender let alone a post season threat" Since the Beav's would have to beat the defending national champions to win the Pac12 I'd say it's probably a safe bet we aren't going win that title. But saying that the Beav's won't end up a post season threat? Yeah, you are just spitting into the wind on that one. With a bunch of guards who have never played with each other the play has great potential to improve.
beaverstever- It's true the Beav's are not a good offensive board team and never have been in Rueck's tenure. But that is a product of his offensive setups and his desire to make sure the other teams don't get easy fast break points. So that just isn't going to change. And on the defensive shooting % currently that is also not great, but again that is a product of a squad of guards who have never played together. Game by game this has been improving and I think they will end up doing very well.
411500- It seems to me that Rueck assumed that Talia was going to be the go to scorer, but her 3 point shooting this season hasn't matched last seasons. Greta is at 46% so far but doesn't seem comfortable being a volume shooter. We will see who it turns out to be, but they are both freshman and will just get better as the season goes along.
lotrader- Yes, Tea isn't being trapped etc. But when the worst shooter on the team has the ball why not just let her keep it and hope she shoots it? And her average in the last 5 games before the Hawaii trip was less than one assist/game. So not much desire to mess with her. If Tea can keep averaging 50% from the 2, 75% from the 3, and 6 assists in each game like she did in Hawaii then goooo Tea. But that isn't exactly her life long averages.
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Post by bvrbooster on Dec 21, 2021 14:07:50 GMT -8
I would remind all of you that, when Ruthie and Sabrina were freshmen, Oregon was far from force to be reckoned with until they started to click late and had a good NCAA tournament run. Later on, of course, when they were the experienced upperclassmen, they were dominant. Give our freshmen a chance to be freshmen, have doubts, make mistakes, and grow.
I agree that we don't have an alpha scorer/shooter at this point, and I really doubt that we will this year. (We don't have a shut down defender like Gabby either.) Right now, coming off 2 solid performances in Hawaii, Greta looks the closest to that role, but she'll have her share of off nights going into conference. With experience, however, she and Talia could become somewhat interchangeable at this.
For this year, I'd opine that Scott's best bet is what he did in Hawaii. Let Tea be the principal ball handler, and allow Greta and Talia to mature as offensive players without the added burden of running the offense. They can each do some of that while Tea's on the bench, but 75 to 80% of their minutes should be at the 2 or 3 spots.
Incidentally, I am noticing more and more Greta's all around game. She seems to come up with 2 or 3 blocks/steals every game, and I like her as a rebounder. Had Talia not been here last year, I would probably say that, through 10 games, I'm more impressed with Greta than Talia. I would hasten to add, however, that a lot of that is because of Talia's turnovers, and they're largely a function of her playing out of position.
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Post by beaverstever on Dec 21, 2021 14:33:32 GMT -8
I would remind all of you that, when Ruthie and Sabrina were freshmen, Oregon was far from force to be reckoned with until they started to click late and had a good NCAA tournament run. Later on, of course, when they were the experienced upperclassmen, they were dominant. Give our freshmen a chance to be freshmen, have doubts, make mistakes, and grow. I agree that we don't have an alpha scorer/shooter at this point, and I really doubt that we will this year. (We don't have a shut down defender like Gabby either.) Right now, coming off 2 solid performances in Hawaii, Greta looks the closest to that role, but she'll have her share of off nights going into conference. With experience, however, she and Talia could become somewhat interchangeable at this. For this year, I'd opine that Scott's best bet is what he did in Hawaii. Let Tea be the principal ball handler, and allow Greta and Talia to mature as offensive players without the added burden of running the offense. They can each do some of that while Tea's on the bench, but 75 to 80% of their minutes should be at the 2 or 3 spots. Incidentally, I am noticing more and more Greta's all around game. She seems to come up with 2 or 3 blocks/steals every game, and I like her as a rebounder. Had Talia not been here last year, I would probably say that, through 10 games, I'm more impressed with Greta than Talia. I would hasten to add, however, that a lot of that is because of Talia's turnovers, and they're largely a function of her playing out of position. On Talia playing out of position, the concern is that she was brought in to be the PG, and there’s nobody on the roster or the incoming class that is better suited - and I’m including Tea in that because in Rueck’s offense, the PG needs to be an outside-in scoring threat to be effective. By late last season we saw Aleah make our offense lethal, and I thought TvO could even take that to another level with her ability to score around the rim. So far her outside shooting and her confidence overall seems to be holding her back. I do believe she has the ability to find another gear though, and if her shots start falling like they did last year, this team will be a much bigger threat in conference. |
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Post by lotrader on Dec 21, 2021 14:54:06 GMT -8
rgeorge- Yes, passing and shooting are problems. But passing by a bunch of Freshman is going to be problematical until they get more practice at this level and I don't think it's impossible for them to greatly improve as the season goes along. And the Beav's for the past 10 years have been a top 10 three point shooting team and it seems that this also can improve. "this team is far from being a Pac12 contender let alone a post season threat" Since the Beav's would have to beat the defending national champions to win the Pac12 I'd say it's probably a safe bet we aren't going win that title. But saying that the Beav's won't end up a post season threat? Yeah, you are just spitting into the wind on that one. With a bunch of guards who have never played with each other the play has great potential to improve. beaverstever- It's true the Beav's are not a good offensive board team and never have been in Rueck's tenure. But that is a product of his offensive setups and his desire to make sure the other teams don't get easy fast break points. So that just isn't going to change. And on the defensive shooting % currently that is also not great, but again that is a product of a squad of guards who have never played together. Game by game this has been improving and I think they will end up doing very well. 411500- It seems to me that Rueck assumed that Talia was going to be the go to scorer, but her 3 point shooting this season hasn't matched last seasons. Greta is at 46% so far but doesn't seem comfortable being a volume shooter. We will see who it turns out to be, but they are both freshman and will just get better as the season goes along. lotrader- Yes, Tea isn't being trapped etc. But when the worst shooter on the team has the ball why not just let her keep it and hope she shoots it? And her average in the last 5 games before the Hawaii trip was less than one assist/game. So not much desire to mess with her. If Tea can keep averaging 50% from the 2, 75% from the 3, and 6 assists in each game like she did in Hawaii then goooo Tea. But that isn't exactly her life long averages. Re: "lotrader- Yes, Tea isn't being trapped etc. But when the worst shooter on the team has the ball why not just let her keep it and hope she shoots it? And her average in the last 5 games before the Hawaii trip was less than one assist/game. So not much desire to mess with her. If Tea can keep averaging 50% from the 2, 75% from the 3, and 6 assists in each game like she did in Hawaii then goooo Tea. But that isn't exactly her life long averages." If you have a better alternative re: who should be the primary PG, let's hear it? Tea is the best alternative as primary PG. TvO should be developing as PG throughout the season as well. If the objective is to win games, Tea is the best alternative as our primary PG for all the reasons previously stated. |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Dec 21, 2021 18:58:18 GMT -8
Progress, but still going a long way. That sounds better to me. This team is going to improve throughout the season. 4 freshmen and 4 transfers is a lot of new faces. Yes, Talia, Jelena, and Ellie played some last year but Ellie was the only one with significant minutes. So that makes 7 trying to learn the system.
I'm really interested in who coach is going to start. Is it always going to be the same? He hasn't settled in on it yet and there is only one more pre conference games left.
One thing is certain, we are going to win some games and unfortunately lose some. It is very hard to go through the pac12 undefeated.
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Post by sweetpea on Dec 22, 2021 16:49:38 GMT -8
Taya Corsdale is never mentioned in discussions of offense or defense. And does she deserve to be a starter on this team?
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Dec 22, 2021 17:16:44 GMT -8
Taya is often mentioned especially in reference to her defensive abilities.
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Post by gustafgg on Dec 22, 2021 17:50:14 GMT -8
Taya is an outstanding defender. She normally gets the assigned coverage for whoever the opponent best 3, 4 or 5 may be. She’s also the bridge to us beating Tennessee (at home) and Baylor from three years ago. She is the anchor of this team.
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