Post by afvolunteer on Mar 15, 2021 20:24:08 GMT -8
Beavers,
I briefly posted in another thread, but I'll start over.
1) Thanks for the quick add. My wife is from the tiny town of Banks (maybe an hour west of Portland). I've never made it to Corvalis, but would love to. Never set foot in Oregon until I met my wife and now I'm there maybe twice a year. Beautiful. I'm neutral on Oregon State. As to Oregon, I basically hate them. Was neutral, but my in-laws live about a block from the Nike campus in Beaverton, and I've never seen such bandwagon fans. I know more about their team than they do, and I don't even like them. So by default, I guess it makes me a Beavs fan. My first boss in the Air Force went to Oregon State. Sky King? Anyone on here know him? If so, tell him up yours for me. And I'm still sorry about replacing his Beaver with wood chips one day as a joke. (Fear not, it was only for 24 hours, but he was pretty effing pissed).
2) I'm a rambler and this will be Too Long Didn't Read. I mean, I think we can basically agree that we're already there. Anyway, want the cliff notes? Listen to a talking head on TV. Want the real scouting report? Continue reading. Expect lots of grammar mistakes, especially if I start drinking scotch halfway through.
3) On to the team: So this year, we brought in 2 fab freshman athletic guards. Pair that with what we had coming back, and we were a fairly consensus pick to win the SEC and go on a deep NCAAT run. Well that didn't freaking happen. Not even close. We may lose to the Beavs, but we'll not overlook them. We've stunk it up too many times this year. If we lose, it'll be more likely due to a lack of belief and confidence, than overconfidence.
We have pretty tall, athletic guards/wings, esp at the 2-4 spot. We don't have a traditional post man, especially with our TKO'd John Fulkerson almost certainly not gonna play. We play well when we're fast, but we never play fast unless the other team forces us to (pressing, running themselves, etc.) So that's a plus for you guys, as I see you're a very slow tempo team. We rarely try to dictate the tempo. Also, we're kings of the midrange. While Alabama and the NBA and countless other teams are playing moneyball and either getting to the rim or launching 3's, we like to pump fake a 3, take 2 steps forward, and heave up a shot with basically the same degree of difficulty, but with 1/3 less point value. Over the course of the game, we leave a ton of points on the table this way. And if we have the ball at the end of the game needing a score, you can go ahead and pour yourself a cold one cause you guys and your semi-Cinderalla run is gonna continue. Our half court, set offense, set plays...S-U-C-K-S.
Offensively, we just have no pulse. Rick Barnes likes to coach it old school with an inside out game. But Fulkerson our big hasn't been himself this year, so that plan hasn't worked, but we keep trying it, results be damned. Points per possession, you guys are better than us on offense. You know who else is, every 1-6 seed. Also most of the 11 seeds and 10 seeds. I saw some 13 seeds that are better offensively than us. We will not scare you, with or without Fulkerson.
Defensively, it's what keeps us in games and why we're a 5 seed (probably, we should've been a 6). We've stopped some pretty solid offenses, and especially those with basically 1 stud. I think Colorado is 17th in the nation on O, and we held them to an insane 73 point per possession. In 26 games this year, we've held 25 of the teams to below their average offense point per possession. The one time we didn't, Mizzou (season avg of 110.9) we let them get 111.0. We switch a lot, most guys on our team can guard 1-4 or 2-5, and we have above average athletes and long guards which helped us get to 11th best in the country at blocking shots (despite not even having a real big man). We get some steal, but we're elite (16th best) at 2pt% D. We collapse and force contested 2's, our 4's/5's hedge and recover on the perimeter to deny inside passes, and we meet guys at the rim. Where we're vulnerable is that aggressive inside D can lead to some sagging overhelp, leaving open 3 point shooters. Also, our springy bigs like to block shots, which can make us vulnerable to giving up offensive rebounds (we rank 205). We "can" but not always, get in foul trouble as well due to our physical brand of D. It's usually not a huge problem, but with no Fulkerson, our post depth is very thin now (it already was).
We'll basically play a 7 man rotation, with some scrub minutes for a few others. Here are the mainstays:
John Fulkerson: He's a 6'9" tall skinny white guy, that despite being arguably the best player in the SEC the back half of last season, still sometimes looks like a giraffe on roller skates. He's not a traditional big. He flies around and gets "tips" more than rebounds, has a high release fade away that's impossible to block, and has great footwork and finishes well at the rim with crafty up and under or spin moves. He's a lefty too (half our team is) which throws folks off. That said, after a handful of games this year, he really started struggling. Most folks think something is/was wrong with him, health wise. He looked winded running up the floor, and he was hurting the team, but coaching staff kept forcing the action. The second team all-SEC player from a year ago, finally ended up getting taken out of the starting lineup for a couple games and it was hard to watch. He came back in our last reg season game with a vengeance though, frustrating the Florida bigs with a 14 pt, 7 board, 4 assist effort and almost all of it came in the second half. Our SEC tourney game began with a UF rematch, and Fulk looked back to his old self again, when Omar Payne who is taller, more athletic, and likely hella frustrated, got pissed and gave Fulk the double elbow sucker punch. Alas, now Fulk is out while Payne will surely play his first NCAAT game. Eff that. My hunch is Fulk's TN career is over. If you guys win, it might be. I doubt he plays this first weekend, much less against you guys. If we win on Friday, I doubt he'll play on Sunday either. Even if he does, he's a wreckless flailing all over the place type of big. A more traditional back to the basket type 5 may be ok a few days after facial surgery and a concussion, but Fulk isn't gonna recover from that before we get eliminated...whether that be you guys or some other team.
Ok, the next 5 are gonna be the starters.
Santi Vescovi: He's a 6'3" PG from Uruguay. Showed up in America halfway through the season last year, and 3 days later bombed 6 3's against LSU. He also had 19 TOs I think. He was a human highlight reel for behind the back passes and alley-oops. This year, I think our coaching staff has broken him though as we've seen none of that. While is TO rate has decreased a ton, his assist rate dropoff aligns almost perfectly, so many of us don't think it was worth the trade off. He's a deceptively good defender despite being a fairly unnathletic slowish white guy with silver hair, but it's mostly due to him being smart and playing angles, forcing his man into help. He can be taken advantage of on D though, especially in switches. He's still very good at dropping triples. Makes 37% of these. Not quite as good as Lucas, but he's basically got the same number of attempts and makes as Calloo and Hunt combined, so you don't want to leave him open. He's a spot shooter though, and typically won't create his own shot from downtown, but rather will get it from a kickout.
Fab Frosh: Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson. Keon is an athletic freak. Not super polished on offense, and both but especially Keon is turnover prone. But he has an NBA midrange game (I cringe). He is athletic as heck, and a great finisher at the rim. Aggressive on O, and draws a ton of fouls. Plays elite D. Banked a 3 pointer in against Bama, and it was one of his better looking 3's (i.e., you want him shooting the 3 ball!) He's willed us to win a few games this year, and when our offense sputters, sometimes he's the only guy willing to do something. Springer is not quite as athletic, but also a very aggressive driver, and another good finisher despite being a bit shorter. Springer is an inch shorter than Keon but 20 lbs heavier...what he lacks in hops, he makes up for by bullying his way to the lane and then either dishing to a big to finish (good), turning the ball over (bad), drawing a foul (good), or missing a mid-range (bad). He's a much better 3 point shooter than Keon (a red hot 44% from 3, but he doesn't shoot them enough), but doesn't have quite the mid-range shot that Keon has (since he can't elevate over defenders like Keon). What you guys want is Keon to shoot the 3 and Jaden to shoot a mid-range 2. They'll both drive the lane a lot, and they are as apt to go off for 20+ each as they are to each have 6+ TOs. Real crap shoot.
Josiah-Jordan James: Our quiet role player. He's a 5 star sophomore that will play the 4 with Fulk out, though he was recruited to play PG at Tenn. He's 6'6" but not a true point. Has great handles for that height, but a super passive offensive player. With the shot clock winding down, he'll pass the ball as time expires instead of shooting it himself. Not a good finisher despite his height, but an incredible rebounder, and steals a few points a game with offensive putbacks. Is an adequate 3 ball shooter (33%) and has shot better lately, but if he misses one or has a bad play, can lose confidence quickly.
Yves Pons: Will man the 5 for us with Fulk out. Listed at 6'6", he looks like a male model and lives in a gym. From France, he loves to play D. Can guard 1-5. Won SEC defensive player of the year last year, and silly that he was snubbed this year and only made the all defensive team. After the announcement, I think he took it personal and had 6 blocks the next game against NCAAT 7 seed Florida. In the first half. He finished the game with 9 blocks, and UF threw 1 or 2 over the backboard trying to sidestep the block. On offense, he "can" hit the 3, but is only shooting 28% on the year. He shot 35% last year from downtown on more attempts, so while I'd live with him chucking it from downtown if I were you guys, he does have the ability to hit it. Despite his ability to throw down on every play, he doesn't have good handles so rarely drives in traffic and rarely finishes with a dunk unless assisted. His typical offense...you guessed it...the fadeaway high arching mid-range 2 which is difficult to make. He's prob the most important guy you guys want to get in foul trouble. We're a good defensive team across the board, but Pons fixes lots of mistakes and our guys play D knowing that Pons is there to help draw a charge or grab a block. If he gets 2 fouls in the first half, Barnes will bench him and our D suffers. So he basically starts the game in foul trouble. 1 foul, and he'll play a bit more passive b/c he won't want to sit. Get an early foul on him, and it'll be big for you guys.
So that's our 5. Off the bench we'll bring in Victor Baily Jr., an Oregon guard transfer. He's crazy streaky. One of our posters said it best the other night. Bailey has 2 settings: red hot, or D3 walk-on. He's scored double figures 10 times this year, including a couple of 20 point burst (once he almost hit 30). He can also score 4 points on 38 shot attempts. Shooter gonna shoot. Super strong and athletic, but ironically not a good finisher nor a good defender. He's prob start if he could play D, and he did start some this year. But he tends to let his man get by him and foul, or gets lost on switches. So he now comes off the bench. Can shoot us out of a game.
I want us to play fast. If we do, we play well. We're athletic enough that we recover well enough on D, and even if we give up some easy ones, our offense more than makes up for it. If we don't run, and we end up in extended half court sets, we tend to pass around the perimeter running off-ball screens inside which frees someone up for a mid-range curl. Yuck. Or one of the freshman will just go Leeroy Jenkins. It's often our best play, even if it ends up in a TO half the time.
We've stayed in a lot of games with our D. It helped us beat several NCAAT teams. Our offense usually doesn't look good. If we have shots start falling, we're an incredibly tough team to beat. But if they're not, and often they aren't, then we're very beatable. I expect a low scoring game with points at a premium. I think most of us Vol fans expect to win, but wouldn't be surprised at all with a loss, if that makes sense.
I don't know much about the Beavs so will look forward to reading the board over the next few days. Fire away with questions and/or zap back any details I should know about you guys. All I know is you guys are hot now, and obviously beat 3 tourney teams to win your conference. 2 weeks ago, I wouldn't have expected to win. But we've played well in our last 3 though, so even without Fulkerson I think most Vol fans think we "should" win this one. It's the dreaded 5/12 though. I've seen lots of upset picks so far go against the Vols, and watching my team all year, can't fault any of them for doing so.
4) Yikes that was long. Whatever, we're both in the NCAAT and at least we can still write and talk about our respective teams. Only 68 teams left that can say that. Congrats to us both!