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Post by rmancarl on May 21, 2020 19:10:35 GMT -8
Ok, 67% of the scoring left. The Beavs averaged a little under 70 points per game last year, which means there is approximately 22 or 23 points per game returning (I didn't look this up. just using your numbers).I'm fairly confident the Beavs will average 65 points per game, so yes, someone is going to make up those points.
Taya----should be much better as she will be in her 4th year in the program. Coming off an injury, yes, but she had last summer and this summer to work on improvements. I expect to see her as a improved from sophomore year. Outside of poor shooting, she came on strong as a rebounder the last half of her sophomore year.
Count me as shocked if Ellie doesn't score double figures. She has a complete game. Good shooter, good scorer, good rebounder and good passer. The jump from her conference to the Pac-12 is not nearly as big as the jump for High School to the Pac-12, and we have successful freshman every year.
Not sure about the 'vet level' comment, but yes, Sasha is one of the most complete freshman to enter the Beaver program. Don't expect her to be great at anything as a freshman, but expect her to be good.
I'll give Trish a solid shot at being a capable backkup. In fact, I'll be surprised is she doesn't show us more this year.
I will agree that there is not anybody to spell Aleah....certainly not Mack. If the Beavs don't pick up another player, the guards, Jasmine and Sasha are going to have to play big roles in helping, and Aleah will need to play 35+ per game.
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Post by beaverstever on May 21, 2020 21:33:20 GMT -8
So, since I apparently have nothing better to do, I checked Mack's stats when Bucknell played top 100 RPI teams in the last 2 years (12 games). Some of those were really good top 25 teams 2019 in FSU (#21 RPI), Syracuse (#10RPI) and Iowa State (#11 RPI), and others games included teams in top 50 (Drexel, Quinn) in 2020, so data wasn't clustered at the bottom.
Her stats comparisons:
2019 Overall: 12.8 pts/6.5 rebs
2019 vs. Top 100: 11.6/5.6
2020 Overall: 15.0/7.4
2020 vs. top 100: 13.0/8.5
In 2020, she basically trades a bucket for another rebound against tougher competition, and shaves a point and a rebound in 2019 as a sophomore vs. competition level she'd see in the Pac-12. I'm very comfortable with the idea that she can be at least a 12/6+ player at OSU. She also kept Kiah Gillaspie within 2 points of her season average (Kiah also went 5-17 as well), so seems she can hang defensively.
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Post by 411500 on May 22, 2020 7:16:20 GMT -8
scubasteve - - your ability to point out the deficiencies and weaknesses in comments written here is well established. Indeed, you may be the very best at pointing out the shortcomings of others who post here.
Eventually, however, every good commentator must write affirmative statements, otherwise he is merely a nay-sayer. A chronic pessimist.
So, help me out here. Why don't you tell us what the strengths of this team might be this upcoming season? Assuming we don't lose all of our games, help me understand what might be considered the strengths of this team. What would have to happen for this team to finish in the top 4 of the Pac?
Thanks for your help....🏀
GO BEAVS !!
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Post by bennyskid on May 22, 2020 7:44:56 GMT -8
12 ppg? For crissakes! *Devin Hunter* never averaged more than EIGHT ppg. Nor did Breanna Brown, Kolbie Orum, Taya Corosdale, or anyone else you might consider a fair comparison.
Trivia question: Name the only OSU player in the past eight years to score 12ppg and NOT be named to the All-Conference team.
Ellie is a fine player, but please don't expect her to play at an All-Pac-12 level.
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Post by beaverwbb fan on May 22, 2020 7:49:53 GMT -8
12 ppg? For crissakes! *Devin Hunter* never averaged more than EIGHT ppg. Nor did Breanna Brown, Kolbie Orum, Taya Corosdale, or anyone else you might consider a fair comparison. Trivia question: Name the only OSU player in the past eight years to score 12ppg and NOT be named to the All-Conference team. Ellie is a fine player, but please don't expect her to play at an All-Pac-12 level. Kat? Taylor? |
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Post by grad1973 on May 22, 2020 8:03:53 GMT -8
All three players coming in can score. They will all be able to shoot over the competition because of their height. As 2 or threes.
Teams will try to zero in on Jones because of her freshman year. We need someone down low to deflect the pressure coming on Jones.
Maybe it can be Mack. But it would be nice to start Trish at 5 and use Jones as 4. Trish would free Jones up that way also. Also depends on how the other team matches up with us.
Aleah could see her point production from the outside go down if she is the point cus she will have all the pressure on her in half court.
If we can get the incoming kids involved in the scoring that will also help down low!
Go beavs.
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Post by believeinthebeavs on May 22, 2020 8:46:58 GMT -8
Jones is a back to the basket 5. Why take her away from her strength?
What would you do with our true 4s? Sit Taya and Mack so Morris can play?
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Post by rmancarl on May 22, 2020 8:48:11 GMT -8
12 ppg? Ok, if it's not Ellie, who is going to score because this team is not going to average 40 points per game. Someone is going to score. Ellie is a seasoned, accomplished player who has a good shooting percentage, and can hit the three. I'll be surprised if anybody on the team other than Aleah or Taylor average more PPG than Ellie.
It's always possible someone could have a 'better than Kobe type leap' and really step it up this season...Taya, Jasmine, Sasha, Trish, etc, but unless one of them ups their game and
becomes a scorer for the Beavs, expect Ellie to average double figures.
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Post by beavershoopsfan on May 22, 2020 9:18:53 GMT -8
12 ppg? For crissakes! *Devin Hunter* never averaged more than EIGHT ppg. Nor did Breanna Brown, Kolbie Orum, Taya Corosdale, or anyone else you might consider a fair comparison. Trivia question: Name the only OSU player in the past eight years to score 12ppg and NOT be named to the All-Conference team. Taylor Jones averaged 12.3 points per game in '19-'20. |
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Post by beavershoopsfan on May 22, 2020 9:59:57 GMT -8
Teams will try to zero in on Jones because of her freshman year. We need someone down low to deflect the pressure coming on Jones. Maybe it can be Mack. But it would be nice to start Trish at 5 and use Jones as 4. Trish would free Jones up that way also. Also depends on how the other team matches up with us. Aleah could see her point production from the outside go down if she is the point cus she will have all the pressure on her in half court. If we can get the incoming kids involved in the scoring that will also help down low! Go beavs. Morris is another player who development is being stalled by the players not having access to OSU facilities and hands-on coaching. It is a big stretch to project Morris as a future starter from where her game was at the end of this past season. Jones will likely start at the 5 for the remainder of her OSU career. Corosdale and Mack possess and have shown skill levels that will tempt Rueck to go with three bigs and two guards in the lineup. If so, that will help OSU deal with its relative lack of depth at the 1 and 2 positions next season until the Class of 2021 recruits arrive. Getting production in the area of 4 points/3 boards per game from Morris in 10-12 minutes per game in '20-'21 would be what I would expect from her. |
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Post by bennyskid on May 22, 2020 10:22:38 GMT -8
12 ppg? For crissakes! *Devin Hunter* never averaged more than EIGHT ppg. Nor did Breanna Brown, Kolbie Orum, Taya Corosdale, or anyone else you might consider a fair comparison. Trivia question: Name the only OSU player in the past eight years to score 12ppg and NOT be named to the All-Conference team. Taylor Jones averaged 12.3 points per game in '19-'20. I should have phrased that differently - in my mind Taylor has an all-conference honor. I was thinking Kat, who averaged just over 12 ppg before her injury.
Adding Taylor adds an exclamation mark to the whole debate. Can you "reasonably expect" Ellie to score as well as Taylor did last season? 12 ppg is a lot of points.
*Reasonably*, we can expect something like
Taylor: 14 ppg Aleah: 12 ppg Taya: 10 ppg Ellie: 8 ppg Jelena: 8 ppg Trish: 4 ppg Sasha: 8 ppg Savannah: 3 ppg Jas: 3 ppg Noelle: 1 ppg
Which gets us to 71 ppg. That's a half-dozen more than we'll probably actually get, so feel free to adjust accordingly.
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Post by rmancarl on May 22, 2020 10:50:53 GMT -8
It will be kind of fun to watch this next year. bennyskid, you have much higher hopes than me for Jelena, and I hope you are right, but I'm giving 3-4 of those points to Ellie, who in all likelihood is a better scorer than Taya right now. It's hard to say how much Taya's game has developed since she has been out for a while. She's one I think has a shot at a big jump.
I expect, and hope, that Jas will add more. I'd really like to see her be the person that makes the big jump this year, and I think she has a shot at that. Certainly with the lack of depth among the 'smalls' she will have the opportunity to show whether she can contribute or not. I'm thinking she can.
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Post by rmancarl on May 22, 2020 11:04:50 GMT -8
scubasteve - - your ability to point out the deficiencies and weaknesses in comments written here is well established. Indeed, you may be the very best at pointing out the shortcomings of others who post here. Eventually, however, every good commentator must write affirmative statements, otherwise he is merely a nay-sayer. A chronic pessimist. So, help me out here. Why don't you tell us what the strengths of this team might be this upcoming season? Assuming we don't lose all of our games, help me understand what might be considered the strengths of this team. What would have to happen for this team to finish in the top 4 of the Pac? Thanks for your help....🏀 GO BEAVS !! First, I'm pretty certain I've limited my comments to poster "shortcomings" to one poster. Limited other posts offer opinion that differs, not judgement of a poster. My previous post asked questions in terms of stating this current version of OSU wbb has far more unknowns than posters are willing to admit. A good commentator typically balances what they've seen as overly bias information. As this site consistently shows the "possible" upside actual realism may be appreciated by some. In looking at what returns to other teams and not making wild guesses of newcomer production I don't see OSU as making gains vs the top 4-5 teams. OSU '19-20 was a better team than the one on paper for '20-21. That team limped home 8-9, granted due to underlying circumstances. Without all the guesses about "possible" individual production. Do those on this board think this team is better than the '19-20 version? The Pac12 is worse? Hence, taking one aspect of the discussion for next year. Cherry picking 12 quality games over two years isn't quite the same as 18 Pac12 games. Add a nonconference schedule that has many opponents superior to Mack's former league opponents, she could play 20+ better, some far better, teams in one season. What most also forget about such a transfer isn't only the level of competition, but the talent of her teammates. Mack was THE best player on her team. THE go to option to put up those stats. She'll not be the best player, she'll not be the go to player in many cases. So, unless one's opinion of the Pac12 talent and level of play has diminished it is pretty realistic to state Mack will not be as effective. She's also not in any way equipped to be a 2 or be anything more than a release vs pressure. She is not an adept ball handler. She could play some 4, but again like TC it's not her strength. As I read thru back threads since registering this discussion seems to mirror the false optimism on the baseball board. While anyone who closely followed the team and league should have seen that team was no where near even the previous year(s). Message boards are an outlet. Pretty basic. Some may use them for optimistic bias. Understandable especially in these times. But, there is a place for objectivity and opposing viewpoints, albeit you'd never know it from the current environment. It's funny. On this board objective comments that are not positive about an OSU team or coach are typically seen as some personal affront or demeaned with low level sarcasm. Yet I read post after post completely fabricating negatives about Destiny with very few chiming in to call out those posters. My first thought would be that the 2020/21 team will not be as good as the 2019/20 team. Still, even bad teams score. If we look at 2020/2021 right now, what players do you look at as being able to manufacture points? Taylor is great around the basket, but someone has to get her the ball down low. Taya has never proven to be a big scorer. Aleah can score, if she can get open and someone gets her the ball at the right time. Yes, it certainly hasn't been proven yet, but I'm saying one of the few girls on the 2020/2021 team that can muster her own points and put the ball in the basket is Ellie. I've said this quite often now, so if she doesn't contribute next season, or only averages 6ppg, we will all know how wrong I was (maybe I can find another board to go and hide my shame). I'm fine with points coming from anyone....Taya, Jas, Sasha, Trish, etc, but if I had to bet on one of them averaging the most ppg this fall/winter it would be Ellie, although I could see any of them making a big leap from past years. They all have talent. |
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Post by beaverstever on May 22, 2020 11:07:25 GMT -8
I personally agree with scubasteve's view that alternative views are helpful and make things more interesting. I enjoy, as most fans do, envision best-case scenarios for recruits, etc. But only having that view ends up overhyping and feeling like players didn't pan out when sometimes they are just operating at a realistic level.
I tend to be much more this way about the men's recruits, mainly because they've been such a heavy dose of reality for so long, while the women's side has had a pretty good history of players reaching potential quickly and overachieving - but there are certainly counter-examples in the program.
That said, I do think the optimistic view of the 3 coming in is pretty realistic in this case. Mack may indeed be overwhelmed and ground down with OSU's schedule, and Sasha/Samuel's may find the leap very different than last year's frosh - which frankly would be more inline with the norm for these situations. Still, I prefer to believe in Mack being all-conference, Sasha having a Jones-type frosh year, and Samuels having a frosh year like Taya's. Realistic? Easily in the realm of possibility IMO, but probably not a fair as an expectation to put on them.
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Post by 411500 on May 22, 2020 11:21:46 GMT -8
scubasteve - - thanks for your reply.
But I was really hoping you could help me out with the questions that I asked in my post. What are the strengths of this year's team? And, what would the Beavs have to do to finish in the top 4 of the Pac this season?
Do you have any insights to share on these topics? If so, I'd like to read them.....
Go Beavs !!
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