norm
Freshman
Posts: 232
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Post by norm on Feb 10, 2020 7:58:24 GMT -8
Looking at the remaining schedule and Pac 12 tournament, I would project this team to be 25-8 heading into the NCAA tournament. My guess is that would be good enough for a 4 seed and hosting the first two rounds. Ultimately leading to another Sweet 16. But I don’t see this current roster being able to upset any of the number 1 seeds and make a deeper run. If this plays out, I would consider this season another excellent one and further cement OSU as one of the best programs in the country (players, coaches, fan support, etc.)
Let’s take a positive approach to this team and remind ourselves of the hardships they have faced this season when we want to type how their shooting is inconsistent or the offense stalls out for periods of time or they aren’t the most athletic team in the country. They have suffered loss on and off of the court this season. I don’t need to name everything here, but the list is long. If you spend any time with any one of them, you will see what wonderful young women they are. That is much more important that winning every basketball game.
Sorry about the two distinct comments in this post. I could cause this thread to go different directions. My intent was to focus on the projection related to the remainder of the season and tournament, but I just felt compelled to add in a little bit of commentary while I was at the keyboard.
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billsaab
Freshman
Retired. Live in SW Washington on 73/4 Acres.
Posts: 589 
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Post by billsaab on Feb 10, 2020 8:23:43 GMT -8
Well said. We are a top 15 type program. I think maybe with the School down south Drawing 12000 and blowing out both teams we played causes us to over react. I wish the would bring back Paul Westhead.
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Post by skyrider on Feb 10, 2020 8:28:05 GMT -8
Norm,
Very well stated and insightful. I agree 100%. That being said I still think it is enjoyable as fans and supporters of the team to be able to discuss questions, opinions,etc. that focus on coaching strategies, recruitment,etc. That should all be in the context of basketball matters and never forget to keep clearly in mind your post!
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Post by 411500 on Feb 10, 2020 8:59:11 GMT -8
How the Beavs handle the next 6 games will be influenced by Kennedy Brown's return to her pre-injury form....
If Kennedy does not return I see the Beavs struggling mightily with their last 6 games....
Right now, I see the Beavs going 1-3 on their upcoming road trip....Winning their final two at home against the Washington schools...That would place them at 22- 8 going into the Pac-12 tourney...
In the Pac-12 Tourney I see 1- 1.....Taking them to 23 - 9
Then everything depends on the seeding and Brown's return to full strength....In Gill the Beavs could go 2 - 0 taking them to 25 - 9......Followed by a Sweet 16 loss taking them to 25 - 10.....
All things considered, that would be a tremendous finish to a season that started with a remarkable run that is now (at least to my eyes) looking even more remarkable than it appeared at the time..
Right now we are looking at the unpleasant reality that the Beavs simply can't score big...The defence is solid, even impressive.....The offence is just not there....
GO BEAVS !!
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rafer
Sophomore
Posts: 1,627
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Post by rafer on Feb 10, 2020 9:08:02 GMT -8
How the Beavs handle the next 6 games will be influenced by Kennedy Brown's return to her pre-injury form.... If Kennedy does not return I see the Beavs struggling mightily with their last 6 games.... Right now, I see the Beavs going 1-3 on their upcoming road trip....Winning their final two at home against the Washington schools...That would place them at 22- 8 going into the Pac-12 tourney... In the Pac-12 Tourney I see 1- 1.....Taking them to 23 - 9 Then everything depends on the seeding and Brown's return to full strength....In Gill the Beavs could go 2 - 0 taking them to 25 - 9......Followed by a Sweet 16 loss taking them to 25 - 10..... All things considered, that would be a tremendous finish to a season that started with a remarkable run that is now (at least to my eyes) looking even more remarkable than it appeared at the time.. Right now we are looking at the unpleasant reality that the Beavs simply can't score big...The defence is solid, even impressive.....The offence is just not there.... GO BEAVS !! Pretty much agree. We may win a couple more than you predict, but I just don't see us making the final 16 without Brown, MAYBE if she can return, but we are simply not the team we thought we were.. |
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Post by wbosh15 on Feb 10, 2020 9:15:41 GMT -8
How the Beavs handle the next 6 games will be influenced by Kennedy Brown's return to her pre-injury form.... If Kennedy does not return I see the Beavs struggling mightily with their last 6 games.... Right now, I see the Beavs going 1-3 on their upcoming road trip....Winning their final two at home against the Washington schools...That would place them at 22- 8 going into the Pac-12 tourney... In the Pac-12 Tourney I see 1- 1.....Taking them to 23 - 9 Then everything depends on the seeding and Brown's return to full strength....In Gill the Beavs could go 2 - 0 taking them to 25 - 9......Followed by a Sweet 16 loss taking them to 25 - 10..... All things considered, that would be a tremendous finish to a season that started with a remarkable run that is now (at least to my eyes) looking even more remarkable than it appeared at the time.. Right now we are looking at the unpleasant reality that the Beavs simply can't score big...The defence is solid, even impressive.....The offence is just not there.... GO BEAVS !! So 1-3 on the road trip has us losing to either Cal or SC? What would make you think we couldn't beat both of those schools? We haven't had a single non top-20 team we haven't beaten by double digits. We haven't had a single non-Oregon team that we haven't been in a single possession with under 3 minutes to go. Make an open shot, make a free throw, anything could change some of those losses to wins. I am worried about Stanford and UCLA, because both of those teams have quality 4's. UCLA's 4 is there best player. I really liked our match-up with them with Brown guarding Onyumwere, but now that match up scares me. I have no idea how to guard her with our current line up. |
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osu82
Freshman
Posts: 656
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Post by osu82 on Feb 10, 2020 9:46:29 GMT -8
How the Beavs handle the next 6 games will be influenced by Kennedy Brown's return to her pre-injury form.... If Kennedy does not return I see the Beavs struggling mightily with their last 6 games.... Right now, I see the Beavs going 1-3 on their upcoming road trip....Winning their final two at home against the Washington schools...That would place them at 22- 8 going into the Pac-12 tourney... In the Pac-12 Tourney I see 1- 1.....Taking them to 23 - 9 Then everything depends on the seeding and Brown's return to full strength....In Gill the Beavs could go 2 - 0 taking them to 25 - 9......Followed by a Sweet 16 loss taking them to 25 - 10..... All things considered, that would be a tremendous finish to a season that started with a remarkable run that is now (at least to my eyes) looking even more remarkable than it appeared at the time.. Right now we are looking at the unpleasant reality that the Beavs simply can't score big...The defence is solid, even impressive.....The offence is just not there.... GO BEAVS !! Pretty much agree. We may win a couple more than you predict, but I just don't see us making the final 16 without Brown, MAYBE if she can return, but we are simply not the team we thought we were.. I think right now the goal is to play out the season well enough to get a 4 seed and host at Gill. That might be a significant hurdle, especially if Brown is out for the rest of the season. If they don't host at Gill, then of course they're playing on someone else's floor and their chances of a S16 finish is not high. Alas, there's no Marie Gulich on a rampage as there was in '17-18. I do think this team edges USC, beats Cal, and goes 2-2 over the next 4 road games then takes care of the WA schools at home. |
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Post by 411500 on Feb 10, 2020 10:08:39 GMT -8
Hope you're right on the two-win scenario over USC & Cal.....
No question the Beavs CAN win both games. From my view, they are playing too spotty, too unpredictably, to expect two wins on the road...
Losing to Cal would be a signature insult to this team, so I'm hoping Cal doesn't come on strong and play like they did yesterday when they took UCLA to over time....
USC on the road is a different critter.....USC has several players with offensive talent, they create their own shots, have a strong rebounding game, and they are totally unpredictable about when they will bring their A game....
Right now, the way the Beavs are playing, winning both would be a great boost to morale......On the road I just don't see the Beavs winning both of these games.....
GO BEAVS !!
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Post by baseba1111 on Feb 10, 2020 11:29:05 GMT -8
From a distance... it appears that the remainder of the season depends on the mental strength of this team. Lack of overall athleticism/quicks and Pac12 level talent as far as depth could be overcome with some mental toughness. To me this team appears to lack what past teams have shown in that area. SR teams have always been more precise, finesse pattern oriented teams. BUT, all have had this metal fortitude to overcome adversity as a team... not to have one player try to put the team on their back by isolating the ball and killing player movement.
In the past when things went bad... a great streak by an opponent, bad calls, streak of missed shots... OSU went into "beast mode" for lack of a better phrase. There were some dominate individual performances, but were always based on great team play, ball movement on offense. And, it is on offense that I see this lack of confidence, scrambling to find a cohesiveness. The defense has not been an issue, especially against the best team s OSU has played.
I also think SR has been different as this season has progressed. He's gotten T's before, but the more the offense has struggled the more "WT like" he has become. He was one to always quietly converse along the sideline when officials were near him. The officiating is not significantly different this season, but SR's temperament along the sidelines seems much more stressed and demonstrative during games when the shots are not falling. Yesterday I ending up watching him more than the play on the court the last 3 min + overtime. I do not think I've seen him more perplexed and frustrated with the offensive play. It wasn't when he was complaining about calls. It was on turnovers, poor shot selection... he would hang his head walk to his seat and grab his small clipboard. It was like he was watching another team... not his.
All speculation of course... but, OSU has never had the most athletic team in the Pac12. OSU has never had the most physical team in the Pac12. I'd say that "rating" wise OSU has never had the most talented team in the Pac12. So this team isn't anything new. BUT... this team lacks what the other teams had to overcome and defeat supposedly "better" teams... mental toughness, focus, and unity. At times it seem to look like 5 individuals playing vs a cohesive unit. Then POOF... they run two perfect inbound plays, as a unit, to snatch away a win.
So... this team needs to "grow up" a bit. Not sure that can happen in a shortened season format. But, there is no way they should not handle Cal and SC! IF not, they are not a top 4 seed anyway. A 4-2 finish probably puts them in the 5th seed. Big confidence win vs the 12 seed, then face... prob Zona... in the 4/5 game. Win and OSU is a 4 seed at least. Lose they travel. But, I see it more a mental issue than anything coaching or talent.
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Post by skyrider on Feb 10, 2020 11:45:21 GMT -8
Excellent analysis! I could clearly sense that something "key" to OSU women's basketball was missing, but could not verbally describe what it was as you have done.
Oregon State in the past was better as a unit than the sum of the parts, that was what made it possible for them to beat so many teams that had far better physical talent.
Now on the offensive side of the ball that ingredient is "missing in action" often and especially in clutch situations.
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Post by rmancarl on Feb 10, 2020 11:49:11 GMT -8
This team reminds me a lot of last years team, that just didn't seem to have 'it' at the end of the year. After two really good games against the ducks and UCLA late last year, there didn't seem to be much left to finish the year at the Arizona's, in the Pac-12 tourney, and then against Boise and Gonzaga. I thought (as did Coach Rueck) that this team may get there down the stretch because the youth would develop, Kat would get back to 100%, and Aleah would get out of the slump she was in. Aleah did bounce back, but Kat hasn't completely found her game yet, and Kennedy (one of the youth) may be out for a while. Although I do think this team should go 2-2 over the next four, there is every reason to question how they finish out.
Let's face it, this team is pretty good. Their losses were close, even holding up pretty well against Oregon, which seems to blow out the rest of the Pac-12 (except for the loss to Arizona St).
I don't know how it will play out, but I want to hold out a little hope that, Kat will continue to get her game back, Taylor will improve on the inside, Kennedy will return, and the team will jell and play it's best ball these next few weeks. I know there is a chance of that happening, but reality now says that it's not likely. As 411500 has stated, you do have to be concerned with their ability to score. Althouh Mik can/will sometimes do it, Destiny has the talent to score at will, if other teams have to worry about other offensive threats. If the rest of the team is not a threat, to much effort can be used against Destiny and Mik.
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Post by nwhoopfan on Feb 10, 2020 11:52:18 GMT -8
Have any of you seen USC Fr. Pili play? She's a human battering ram. She's not real tall, but she has plenty of size and she's not the slightest bit shy about using it. That could be an interesting match up for Jones or Washington. Their other post Overbeck isn't dainty or a finesse player either.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Feb 10, 2020 11:52:58 GMT -8
They had one practice without KB to get ready for a game. This week they will have four, and a walkthrough on Friday, to prepare.
We obviously can't run many of the same offensive sets without KB, a far more versatile offensive player than whomever replaces her. So we have to trim back out playbook, so to speak, and do a much better job of running what we can run.
It's still very frustrating to see what injuries have done to the last two seasons. Kat Tudor was playing at such a high level last year when she got hurt.
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Post by TheGlove on Feb 10, 2020 12:00:15 GMT -8
They had one practice without KB to get ready for a game. This week they will have four, and a walkthrough on Friday, to prepare. We obviously can't run many of the same offensive sets without KB, a far more versatile offensive player than whomever replaces her. So we have to trim back out playbook, so to speak, and do a much better job of running what we can run. It's still very frustrating to see what injuries have done to the last two seasons. Kat Tudor was playing at such a high level last year when she got hurt. Is it just me or is Kat rounding into form now? It seems she's been much more like pre-ACL Kat lately. |
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Post by beaverstever on Feb 10, 2020 12:07:31 GMT -8
Agree with baseba1111 - This weekend seemed to reinforce the impression that we are a top 20 team, and a 4-5 seed is where we'll end up. Things could still turn around, but right I see the following:
- We only have one big that is an inside scoring threat, regardless of Kennedy's injury, and she's a freshman. She's a very good one, but if she also has to take the defensive load and keep out of foul trouble, it's just a huge ask. She's not Marie ... yet. It seems ridiculous that given our roster, we have a shortage of serviceable bigs, but that's where we're at.
- While Rueck says he likes our small lineup, it's a recipe for a one-and-done in the tournament right now. That's because of the following seen in our losses:
ASU: All guards 0-fer on 3s except Destiny
Stanford: Tudor 0-3
Oregon 1: Pivec 0-4, Tudor 0-6
Oregon 2: Slocum 1-7
UA: Slocum 0-7, Tudor 1-5
Volume shooting low-percentages by the players we need to be hitting shots puts this team at risk. Only Aleah is shooting over 40% from 3 pt range, and Kat is at the low end of the 30s now. What's worse is that most of our guards shooting % is not a normal distribution - they seem to be money one game, and can't hit anything the next ... instead of bouncing around their average game-to-game.
The other reality is that this team is actually not that different than many of Rueck's historical teams. Some of it is the expectations to start the season (including pre-injuries), and the Pac-12 in general getting a big return this year with a bunch of schools who have ramped up their WBB efforts ... none of Rueck's teams would have won the conference this year.
Maybe the injuries piling on will help both the team and the fans to go back to enjoying the underdog role and enjoy punching above our weight again come tourney time.
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