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Post by pitbeavs on Jan 3, 2020 15:25:43 GMT -8
-2013 we were barely emerging from a significant recession, one that saw "unskilled" labor, manufacturing and countless non-degree holding jobs get devastated across the country. Hell, I was laid off in the beginning of it (2009) from the well paying at the time job I held at Hewlett-Packard with only a high school diploma and some college under my belt. I went back to college myself! For a lot of years, a college degree was your only hope at a good paying job. As the economy recovered, the trades recovered, some manufacturing has popped up. Some new careers have emerged that only require community college certification. The college degree is less important now than 7 years ago and young people recognize that. And of course, the absolutely ridiculous and entirely indefensible cost of college is turning people away. Why start off $100K in debt with no guarantee of work for your effort?
We are due for a recession again at some point in the next couple years. It will probably push people back to college again. Well said. But, to some millennials the surprise is... there is no guarantee of work for anyone... generally you get out what you put in... to your job search/research, effort, work ethic, etc. Life can be "unfair" in the job market, but no one said there would be any guarantees in life, college or not. You have to go out a get what you want, it won't come knocking. Second... NO student needs to be $100k in debt to get a degree... NONE. PCC, LBCC, Chemeketa (the ones I have the most experience with dealing with kids now and in the past) all have great 2 year programs that are directly tied to 4-year programs. Admission and credits are guaranteed to be accepted and can cut college costs in half or more. Some kids with the right research and grades can get two years post HS education for basically free. Even having to share an apartment the average of $100/credit for CC tuition is a great bargain. For students who are not sure what they want out of their future education, think they may not cut it, want to explore options the CC route is an incredible opportunity. Plus, most can work credits around PT and even FT jobs between campus and E-courses. I've had kids not pay a dime for the first two years, and come out with degrees in pharmacy with as little as $40k in debt and a job that starts at $90k. Some can easily get a 4-year degree with less than $30k on direct educational costs. But, it takes some work, planning, and for some the ability to check their ego. CC's offer a great way to get a positive start to a degree, but to many CCs are seen as minor league, a step down. The forecasts I've read project that. by 2050, 80% of the economy will be automated. So no jobs for anyone. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Jan 3, 2020 15:30:00 GMT -8
Well said. But, to some millennials the surprise is... there is no guarantee of work for anyone... generally you get out what you put in... to your job search/research, effort, work ethic, etc. Life can be "unfair" in the job market, but no one said there would be any guarantees in life, college or not. You have to go out a get what you want, it won't come knocking. Second... NO student needs to be $100k in debt to get a degree... NONE. PCC, LBCC, Chemeketa (the ones I have the most experience with dealing with kids now and in the past) all have great 2 year programs that are directly tied to 4-year programs. Admission and credits are guaranteed to be accepted and can cut college costs in half or more. Some kids with the right research and grades can get two years post HS education for basically free. Even having to share an apartment the average of $100/credit for CC tuition is a great bargain. For students who are not sure what they want out of their future education, think they may not cut it, want to explore options the CC route is an incredible opportunity. Plus, most can work credits around PT and even FT jobs between campus and E-courses. I've had kids not pay a dime for the first two years, and come out with degrees in pharmacy with as little as $40k in debt and a job that starts at $90k. Some can easily get a 4-year degree with less than $30k on direct educational costs. But, it takes some work, planning, and for some the ability to check their ego. CC's offer a great way to get a positive start to a degree, but to many CCs are seen as minor league, a step down. The forecasts I've read project that. by 2050, 80% of the economy will be automated. So no jobs for anyone. I can’t wait, as long as dump truck drivers are automated! |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jan 3, 2020 15:45:16 GMT -8
I can't remember all the specifics but I saw an investment guy online a bit back that was making the case for there having been three or four 16-18 year bull runs since the 40's/50's, along with 3 multi-year bear runs and a couple relatively short pull-back of 30% in each of the bull runs. I'm thinking he's following the economic thought Wilky mentioned a few posts back.
His claim is that since we didn't top 2007 highs until about early 2013 we're now about 6-7 years into the next 16-18 year bull run and that other than a pull back or two we're not in for a long term recession (like the one that began in late '07) for another 8-10 years.
I like that line of thinking since I'll be dur to retire about then.
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Post by baseba1111 on Jan 3, 2020 15:45:49 GMT -8
Well said. But, to some millennials the surprise is... there is no guarantee of work for anyone... generally you get out what you put in... to your job search/research, effort, work ethic, etc. Life can be "unfair" in the job market, but no one said there would be any guarantees in life, college or not. You have to go out a get what you want, it won't come knocking. Second... NO student needs to be $100k in debt to get a degree... NONE. PCC, LBCC, Chemeketa (the ones I have the most experience with dealing with kids now and in the past) all have great 2 year programs that are directly tied to 4-year programs. Admission and credits are guaranteed to be accepted and can cut college costs in half or more. Some kids with the right research and grades can get two years post HS education for basically free. Even having to share an apartment the average of $100/credit for CC tuition is a great bargain. For students who are not sure what they want out of their future education, think they may not cut it, want to explore options the CC route is an incredible opportunity. Plus, most can work credits around PT and even FT jobs between campus and E-courses. I've had kids not pay a dime for the first two years, and come out with degrees in pharmacy with as little as $40k in debt and a job that starts at $90k. Some can easily get a 4-year degree with less than $30k on direct educational costs. But, it takes some work, planning, and for some the ability to check their ego. CC's offer a great way to get a positive start to a degree, but to many CCs are seen as minor league, a step down. The forecasts I've read project that. by 2050, 80% of the economy will be automated. So no jobs for anyone. Of course no jobs... we'll all be dead in 12 years. Remember? |
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Post by Judge Smails on Jan 3, 2020 16:12:19 GMT -8
The forecasts I've read project that. by 2050, 80% of the economy will be automated. So no jobs for anyone. Of course no jobs... we'll all be dead in 12 years. Remember? I'm still hoping we get to a Rose Bowl before I'm dead. But, if I'm not dead, I will be broke because they were charging $17/beer at the Rose Bowl this year. |
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Post by pitbeavs on Jan 3, 2020 16:18:02 GMT -8
The forecasts I've read project that. by 2050, 80% of the economy will be automated. So no jobs for anyone. Of course no jobs... we'll all be dead in 12 years. Remember? No, we won't be dead. You might, but I can't speak to that. The twelve years relates to how much time we have left to act before it will be too late. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Jan 3, 2020 16:37:25 GMT -8
Of course no jobs... we'll all be dead in 12 years. Remember? No, we won't be dead. You might, but I can't speak to that. The twelve years relates to how much time we have left to act before it will be too late. ”The world will end in 12 years...” |
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Post by lebaneaver on Jan 3, 2020 18:41:29 GMT -8
Well said. But, to some millennials the surprise is... there is no guarantee of work for anyone... generally you get out what you put in... to your job search/research, effort, work ethic, etc. Life can be "unfair" in the job market, but no one said there would be any guarantees in life, college or not. You have to go out a get what you want, it won't come knocking. Second... NO student needs to be $100k in debt to get a degree... NONE. PCC, LBCC, Chemeketa (the ones I have the most experience with dealing with kids now and in the past) all have great 2 year programs that are directly tied to 4-year programs. Admission and credits are guaranteed to be accepted and can cut college costs in half or more. Some kids with the right research and grades can get two years post HS education for basically free. Even having to share an apartment the average of $100/credit for CC tuition is a great bargain. For students who are not sure what they want out of their future education, think they may not cut it, want to explore options the CC route is an incredible opportunity. Plus, most can work credits around PT and even FT jobs between campus and E-courses. I've had kids not pay a dime for the first two years, and come out with degrees in pharmacy with as little as $40k in debt and a job that starts at $90k. Some can easily get a 4-year degree with less than $30k on direct educational costs. But, it takes some work, planning, and for some the ability to check their ego. CC's offer a great way to get a positive start to a degree, but to many CCs are seen as minor league, a step down. The forecasts I've read project that. by 2050, 80% of the economy will be automated. So no jobs for anyone. Pit makes a great point. Automation has killed millions of jobs (good jobs), while creating thousands...maybe tens of thousands of jobs. The job market is not sustainable with those differences. I'm not talking about "fry-cooks." I'm talking about "family wage, with good bennies" jobs. OSU can pump out GREAT engineers....but, the "operators" of the "thing-a-ma-bobs, and thing-a-ma-jigs" they develop and create, will be robots. No wages, benefits, sick pay, workman's comp, etc. It's a real concern. I'm SURE many of you will disagree. OK |
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Post by baseba1111 on Jan 3, 2020 19:00:32 GMT -8
The forecasts I've read project that. by 2050, 80% of the economy will be automated. So no jobs for anyone. Pit makes a great point. Automation has killed millions of jobs (good jobs), while creating thousands...maybe tens of thousands of jobs. The job market is not sustainable with those differences. I'm not talking about "fry-cooks." I'm talking about "family wage, with good bennies" jobs. OSU can pump out GREAT engineers....but, the "operators" of the "thing-a-ma-bobs, and thing-a-ma-jigs" they develop and create, will be robots. No wages, benefits, sick pay, workman's comp, etc. It's a real concern. I'm SURE many of you will disagree. OK Facts disagree. More people more goods/services required. More tech more goods/services required. More goods/services more jobs. I'd assume everyone would agree technology has taken a huge jump in the last 30 years? So have jobs... 30 million more since 1990-2018. Unemployment rates from 1990 to 2018 have ranged from a high if 9.6 (2010) to a low of 3.9 (2018). And, the US has always had jobs of all types, earnings, "family wage" jobs. With new minimum wage laws those 'lesser' jobs are better paid than any time in history. Also, families have many more options in how to frugally use wages, get credit, etc. The same articles about tech suppressing the job market existed in the 80s. Never happened, and won't in my or my 30 y/o son's lifetime. |
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Post by lebaneaver on Jan 3, 2020 19:32:11 GMT -8
Pit makes a great point. Automation has killed millions of jobs (good jobs), while creating thousands...maybe tens of thousands of jobs. The job market is not sustainable with those differences. I'm not talking about "fry-cooks." I'm talking about "family wage, with good bennies" jobs. OSU can pump out GREAT engineers....but, the "operators" of the "thing-a-ma-bobs, and thing-a-ma-jigs" they develop and create, will be robots. No wages, benefits, sick pay, workman's comp, etc. It's a real concern. I'm SURE many of you will disagree. OK Facts disagree. More people more goods/services required. More tech more goods/services required. More goods/services more jobs. I'd assume everyone would agree technology has taken a huge jump in the last 30 years? So have jobs... 30 million more since 1990-2018. Unemployment rates from 1990 to 2018 have ranged from a high if 9.6 (2010) to a low of 3.9 (2018). And, the US has always had jobs of all types, earnings, "family wage" jobs. With new minimum wage laws those 'lesser' jobs are better paid than any time in history. Also, families have many more options in how to frugally use wages, get credit, etc. The same articles about tech suppressing the job market existed in the 80s. Never happened, and won't in my or my 30 y/o son's lifetime. Good jobs? Family wage jobs with benefits? The unemployment/employment rate says NOTHING of the underemployed. They are legion. Most young folks I know WITH degrees (not in basket-weaving) struggle with TWO incomes. Folks blame everything BUT automation. It is a real and growing concern. I have witnessed it for decades. " .....And, the US has always had jobs of all types, earnings, "family wage" jobs." What does that mean? What always "was," is not relevant to what IS. There were 250,000,000 souls in the U.S. in 1990. An estimated 330,000,000 in 2019. 30,000,000 "new' jobs doesn't quite cut it. worldpopulationreview.com/countries/united-states-population/ |
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Post by spudbeaver on Jan 3, 2020 19:40:25 GMT -8
Facts disagree. More people more goods/services required. More tech more goods/services required. More goods/services more jobs. I'd assume everyone would agree technology has taken a huge jump in the last 30 years? So have jobs... 30 million more since 1990-2018. Unemployment rates from 1990 to 2018 have ranged from a high if 9.6 (2010) to a low of 3.9 (2018). And, the US has always had jobs of all types, earnings, "family wage" jobs. With new minimum wage laws those 'lesser' jobs are better paid than any time in history. Also, families have many more options in how to frugally use wages, get credit, etc. The same articles about tech suppressing the job market existed in the 80s. Never happened, and won't in my or my 30 y/o son's lifetime. Good jobs? Family wage jobs with benefits? The unemployment/employment rate says NOTHING of the underemployed. They are legion. Most young folks I know WITH degrees (not in basket-weaving) struggle with TWO incomes. Folks blame everything BUT automation. It is a real and growing concern. I have witnessed it for decades. " .....And, the US has always had jobs of all types, earnings, "family wage" jobs." What does that mean? What always "was," is not relevant to what IS. There were 250,000,000 souls in the U.S. in 1990. An estimated 330,000,000 in 2019. 30,000,000 "new' jobs doesn't quite cut it. worldpopulationreview.com/countries/united-states-population/I’ve got a bunch of good, well paying family wage jobs available! Pipe layers, equipment operators, laborers, truck drivers, oilers, mechanics. $18-35/hour plus benefits. Guess what? Can’t fill them! When we do finally find a young person many fail their drug test. The ones that make it through that have about a 10% success rate. Too hard. Too many hours. There’s a ton of my competitors in the same boat. By the way, you didn’t take into account the large number of people leaving the job market due to age, mortality, quitting. |
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Post by lebaneaver on Jan 3, 2020 19:48:45 GMT -8
Good jobs? Family wage jobs with benefits? The unemployment/employment rate says NOTHING of the underemployed. They are legion. Most young folks I know WITH degrees (not in basket-weaving) struggle with TWO incomes. Folks blame everything BUT automation. It is a real and growing concern. I have witnessed it for decades. " .....And, the US has always had jobs of all types, earnings, "family wage" jobs." What does that mean? What always "was," is not relevant to what IS. There were 250,000,000 souls in the U.S. in 1990. An estimated 330,000,000 in 2019. 30,000,000 "new' jobs doesn't quite cut it. worldpopulationreview.com/countries/united-states-population/I’ve got a bunch of good, well paying family wage jobs available! Pipe layers, equipment operators, laborers, truck drivers, oilers, mechanics. $18-35/hour plus benefits. Guess what? Can’t fill them! When we do finally find a young person many fail their drug test. The ones that make it through that have about a 10% success rate. Too hard. Too many hours. There’s a ton of my competitors in the same boat. By the way, you didn’t take into account the large number of people leaving the job market due to age, mortality, quitting. I can't debate about the "quitters." Our society has created millions of "instant gratification" "managers," who simply WILL NOT work if sweat is involved. I know. The term "work-ethic" seems to have a completely different meaning to MANY, than it does to me. I DON'T know what the answer is, but I think many young folks witnessed the decades of toil their parents went through to have a "decent life/retirement," and say, "screw it." |
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Post by baseba1111 on Jan 3, 2020 19:51:24 GMT -8
I’ve got a bunch of good, well paying family wage jobs available! Pipe layers, equipment operators, laborers, truck drivers, oilers, mechanics. $18-35/hour plus benefits. Guess what? Can’t fill them! When we do finally find a young person many fail their drug test. The ones that make it through that have about a 10% success rate. Too hard. Too many hours. There’s a ton of my competitors in the same boat. By the way, you didn’t take into account the large number of people leaving the job market due to age, mortality, quitting. I can't debate about the "quitters." Our society has created millions of "instant gratification" "managers," who simply WILL NOT work if sweat is involved. I know. The term "work-ethic" seems to have a completely different meaning to MANY, than it does to me. I DON'T know what the answer is, but I think many young folks witnessed the decades of toil their parents went through to have a "decent life/retirement," and say, "screw it." Which has zero to do with tech and everything to do with they deserve what they get! |
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Post by lebaneaver on Jan 3, 2020 19:58:41 GMT -8
I can't debate about the "quitters." Our society has created millions of "instant gratification" "managers," who simply WILL NOT work if sweat is involved. I know. The term "work-ethic" seems to have a completely different meaning to MANY, than it does to me. I DON'T know what the answer is, but I think many young folks witnessed the decades of toil their parents went through to have a "decent life/retirement," and say, "screw it." Which has zero to do with tech and everything to do with they deserve what they get! Okay, but, Baseball, I don't KNOW what percentage they actually account for. Do you? I don't. Maybe, they don't want what we wanted when we were young'ns. I chased the "American Dream:" A family of five. $$$. A nice home. Vacations. Saving for retirement. Baseball, Apple Pie and Chevrolet..... etc., etc., etc. (Cue Yule Brenner). This generation is different. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Jan 3, 2020 20:14:57 GMT -8
Which has zero to do with tech and everything to do with they deserve what they get! Okay, but, Baseball, I don't KNOW what percentage they actually account for. Do you? I don't. Maybe, they don't want what we wanted when we were young'ns. I chased the "American Dream:" A family of five. $$$. A nice home. Vacations. Saving for retirement. Baseball, Apple Pie and Chevrolet..... etc., etc., etc. (Cue Yule Brenner). This generation is different. Well, for what it’s worth, I think you did it right. I could tell by your posts over the years that you’re a hard working guy. Well done. This generation will somehow find their way eventually. They all seem to. |
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