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Post by northvalleybeaver on Jan 2, 2020 13:41:32 GMT -8
I follow several people who have had a good and long term track record at making future projections based on analysis and technical information. This gentleman is one of two that I follow that are making the same projections for the near future of universities, Interesting commits on college athletics. No one is perfect for sure but the two men who would agree in their analysis have a much better track record than most. It Was a Good Run _ Mauldin Economics.html (76.48 KB) |
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Post by obf on Jan 2, 2020 16:32:59 GMT -8
Maybe it is just me, but I couldn't get your link / download to work... Is this what you meant: It was a good run |
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Post by vhalum92 on Jan 2, 2020 17:06:52 GMT -8
I was able to get the first link to work, you just had to scroll down to see the article. Yes, that second link is the same article.
I find this interesting... "Today, 45% fewer 18- to 29-year-olds say going to college is “very important” than in 2013. A 45% drop in just seven years."
I've seen this with my oldest child and his high school classmates. I'd say the tide is turning for sure. The question for the Beaver faithful, is how should this impact our proposed plan to remodel the other side of the stadium? I'm still a fan of a remodel for sure.
If this article is right, enrollment will drop but that doesn't have to impact attendance at a football game. Yes, moving forward we will have fewer "alumni" but my son who is in the workforce and not enrolled in any higher education at this time comes to every home Beaver football game.
It will be interesting to see if enrollment actually drops at OSU and how the Admin and state level politicians react to that.
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Post by NativeBeav on Jan 2, 2020 17:45:49 GMT -8
I was able to get the first link to work, you just had to scroll down to see the article. Yes, that second link is the same article. I find this interesting... "Today, 45% fewer 18- to 29-year-olds say going to college is “very important” than in 2013. A 45% drop in just seven years." I've seen this with my oldest child and his high school classmates. I'd say the tide is turning for sure. The question for the Beaver faithful, is how should this impact our proposed plan to remodel the other side of the stadium? I'm still a fan of a remodel for sure. If this article is right, enrollment will drop but that doesn't have to impact attendance at a football game. Yes, moving forward we will have fewer "alumni" but my son who is in the workforce and not enrolled in any higher education at this time comes to every home Beaver football game. It will be interesting to see if enrollment actually drops at OSU and how the Admin and state level politicians react to that. Like they always do, when revenue drops - raise prices to try and make up the shortfall. Problem is, this will only accelerate the trend. A race to the bottom. |
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Post by sagebrush on Jan 3, 2020 8:56:21 GMT -8
I listened to Bob the Builder talking about how the Valley View (no donations) came to be. He was walking across the field pre-game with a big $$ guy who commented on the empty seats. They talked. BDC listened. The result: no donations (they weren't getting them anyway), tickets sold, concessions, parking. OSU pretty much priced me out of section 114. I jumped all over Valley View and did it quick. I am 8 seats from the club section. One row above the concourse and the donation seats. We buy tickets. We pay for parking. We hit the concessions. We hit the store across the street. If we weren't there, there would be $0. Now, if they improve the product and selling out, they can start tacking stuff on. Think supply and DEMAND.
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Post by pitbeavs on Jan 3, 2020 9:09:53 GMT -8
I follow several people who have had a good and long term track record at making future projections based on analysis and technical information. This gentleman is one of two that I follow that are making the same projections for the near future of universities, Interesting commits on college athletics. No one is perfect for sure but the two men who would agree in their analysis have a much better track record than most. On the nose. And California allowing college athletes to market their image is the end of college athletics. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Jan 3, 2020 9:14:11 GMT -8
I listened to Bob the Builder talking about how the Valley View (no donations) came to be. He was walking across the field pre-game with a big $$ guy who commented on the empty seats. They talked. BDC listened. The result: no donations (they weren't getting them anyway), tickets sold, concessions, parking. OSU pretty much priced me out of section 114. I jumped all over Valley View and did it quick. I am 8 seats from the club section. One row above the concourse and the donation seats. We buy tickets. We pay for parking. We hit the concessions. We hit the store across the street. If we weren't there, there would be $0. Now, if they improve the product and selling out, they can start tacking stuff on. Think supply and DEMAND. Totally agree with you. That need to also get rid of the donations in section 9 & 16 and possibly 10 & 15. The amount of butts in seats on the old side was pathetic last year. Get people here and as the team gets better, you can increase prices. But for now, it is time to lower prices. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Jan 3, 2020 9:30:30 GMT -8
I listened to Bob the Builder talking about how the Valley View (no donations) came to be. He was walking across the field pre-game with a big $$ guy who commented on the empty seats. They talked. BDC listened. The result: no donations (they weren't getting them anyway), tickets sold, concessions, parking. OSU pretty much priced me out of section 114. I jumped all over Valley View and did it quick. I am 8 seats from the club section. One row above the concourse and the donation seats. We buy tickets. We pay for parking. We hit the concessions. We hit the store across the street. If we weren't there, there would be $0. Now, if they improve the product and selling out, they can start tacking stuff on. Think supply and DEMAND. Totally agree with you. That need to also get rid of the donations in section 9 & 16 and possibly 10 & 15. The amount of butts in seats on the old side was pathetic last year. Get people here and as the team gets better, you can increase prices. But for now, it is time to lower prices. We finally gave up our long held season tickets in Sec 15 in Gag’s last year. Couldn’t take it anymore and it certainly wasn’t worth the cost. It was sad. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Jan 3, 2020 9:31:55 GMT -8
Totally agree with you. That need to also get rid of the donations in section 9 & 16 and possibly 10 & 15. The amount of butts in seats on the old side was pathetic last year. Get people here and as the team gets better, you can increase prices. But for now, it is time to lower prices. We finally gave up our long held season tickets in Sec 15 in Gag’s last year. Couldn’t take it anymore and it certainly wasn’t worth the cost. It was sad. I did the same thing in Sec 10. Had them for 20 years.....moved to Valley View. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Jan 3, 2020 11:04:55 GMT -8
Well... the AD and Beaver Nation seem to be moving away from drawing fans... or keeping the ones they have happy. Their big selling point... 7 games for the price of 6, not raising season tix! Do they really think that'd work? 🤔
Plus,the new point system completely ignores those with decades of season tix prior to 2000... as I read it (phone call explanation didn't change that). I'm not sure how much the fancy mailer cost them, but overall it just made me more resolute to give my $$ in a more direct manner skipping anything to do with those in Beaver Nation.
I queried a group from that organization @ucla... why do 6 of you need to get an expense paid trip on Wednesday thru Sunday to set up a very minor sized tailgate that is being catered/physically set up by a company here? No reply. I wonder what % of donations to that organization go to "admin"?
I bought several extra tix per game this year, front row 214, under cover in Sections 119 and 120, that totaled just over half of a season ticket... $210 for 6 games. Add 3 away game tix and it totaled $260.
I don't expect crowds to be any bigger next year unless the AD decides that their sales pitch needs adjusting and there is a spring/summer deal.
The new Prez needs to do an independent review of the AD and BN to get rid of the dead weight and cronyism.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jan 3, 2020 11:38:07 GMT -8
I was able to get the first link to work, you just had to scroll down to see the article. Yes, that second link is the same article. I find this interesting... "Today, 45% fewer 18- to 29-year-olds say going to college is “very important” than in 2013. A 45% drop in just seven years." I've seen this with my oldest child and his high school classmates. I'd say the tide is turning for sure. The question for the Beaver faithful, is how should this impact our proposed plan to remodel the other side of the stadium? I'm still a fan of a remodel for sure. If this article is right, enrollment will drop but that doesn't have to impact attendance at a football game. Yes, moving forward we will have fewer "alumni" but my son who is in the workforce and not enrolled in any higher education at this time comes to every home Beaver football game. It will be interesting to see if enrollment actually drops at OSU and how the Admin and state level politicians react to that. -2013 we were barely emerging from a significant recession, one that saw "unskilled" labor, manufacturing and countless non-degree holding jobs get devastated across the country. Hell, I was laid off in the beginning of it (2009) from the well paying at the time job I held at Hewlett-Packard with only a high school diploma and some college under my belt. I went back to college myself! For a lot of years, a college degree was your only hope at a good paying job. As the economy recovered, the trades recovered, some manufacturing has popped up. Some new careers have emerged that only require community college certification. The college degree is less important now than 7 years ago and young people recognize that. And of course, the absolutely ridiculous and entirely indefensible cost of college is turning people away. Why start off $100K in debt with no guarantee of work for your effort? We are due for a recession again at some point in the next couple years. It will probably push people back to college again. |
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Post by kersting13 on Jan 3, 2020 13:17:23 GMT -8
I was able to get the first link to work, you just had to scroll down to see the article. Yes, that second link is the same article. I find this interesting... "Today, 45% fewer 18- to 29-year-olds say going to college is “very important” than in 2013. A 45% drop in just seven years." I've seen this with my oldest child and his high school classmates. I'd say the tide is turning for sure. The question for the Beaver faithful, is how should this impact our proposed plan to remodel the other side of the stadium? I'm still a fan of a remodel for sure. If this article is right, enrollment will drop but that doesn't have to impact attendance at a football game. Yes, moving forward we will have fewer "alumni" but my son who is in the workforce and not enrolled in any higher education at this time comes to every home Beaver football game. It will be interesting to see if enrollment actually drops at OSU and how the Admin and state level politicians react to that. -2013 we were barely emerging from a significant recession, one that saw "unskilled" labor, manufacturing and countless non-degree holding jobs get devastated across the country. Hell, I was laid off in the beginning of it (2009) from the well paying at the time job I held at Hewlett-Packard with only a high school diploma and some college under my belt. I went back to college myself! For a lot of years, a college degree was your only hope at a good paying job. As the economy recovered, the trades recovered, some manufacturing has popped up. Some new careers have emerged that only require community college certification. The college degree is less important now than 7 years ago and young people recognize that. And of course, the absolutely ridiculous and entirely indefensible cost of college is turning people away. Why start off $100K in debt with no guarantee of work for your effort? We are due for a recession again at some point in the next couple years. It will probably push people back to college again. We are currently in the longest period of economic expansion in history, so some sort of a slow down is entirely possible/expected. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Jan 3, 2020 15:01:42 GMT -8
I was able to get the first link to work, you just had to scroll down to see the article. Yes, that second link is the same article. I find this interesting... "Today, 45% fewer 18- to 29-year-olds say going to college is “very important” than in 2013. A 45% drop in just seven years." I've seen this with my oldest child and his high school classmates. I'd say the tide is turning for sure. The question for the Beaver faithful, is how should this impact our proposed plan to remodel the other side of the stadium? I'm still a fan of a remodel for sure. If this article is right, enrollment will drop but that doesn't have to impact attendance at a football game. Yes, moving forward we will have fewer "alumni" but my son who is in the workforce and not enrolled in any higher education at this time comes to every home Beaver football game. It will be interesting to see if enrollment actually drops at OSU and how the Admin and state level politicians react to that. -2013 we were barely emerging from a significant recession, one that saw "unskilled" labor, manufacturing and countless non-degree holding jobs get devastated across the country. Hell, I was laid off in the beginning of it (2009) from the well paying at the time job I held at Hewlett-Packard with only a high school diploma and some college under my belt. I went back to college myself! For a lot of years, a college degree was your only hope at a good paying job. As the economy recovered, the trades recovered, some manufacturing has popped up. Some new careers have emerged that only require community college certification. The college degree is less important now than 7 years ago and young people recognize that. And of course, the absolutely ridiculous and entirely indefensible cost of college is turning people away. Why start off $100K in debt with no guarantee of work for your effort?
We are due for a recession again at some point in the next couple years. It will probably push people back to college again. Well said. But, to some millennials the surprise is... there is no guarantee of work for anyone... generally you get out what you put in... to your job search/research, effort, work ethic, etc. Life can be "unfair" in the job market, but no one said there would be any guarantees in life, college or not. You have to go out a get what you want, it won't come knocking. Second... NO student needs to be $100k in debt to get a degree... NONE. PCC, LBCC, Chemeketa (the ones I have the most experience with dealing with kids now and in the past) all have great 2 year programs that are directly tied to 4-year programs. Admission and credits are guaranteed to be accepted and can cut college costs in half or more. Some kids with the right research and grades can get two years post HS education for basically free. Even having to share an apartment the average of $100/credit for CC tuition is a great bargain. For students who are not sure what they want out of their future education, think they may not cut it, want to explore options the CC route is an incredible opportunity. Plus, most can work credits around PT and even FT jobs between campus and E-courses. I've had kids not pay a dime for the first two years, and come out with degrees in pharmacy with as little as $40k in debt and a job that starts at $90k. Some can easily get a 4-year degree with less than $30k on direct educational costs. But, it takes some work, planning, and for some the ability to check their ego. CC's offer a great way to get a positive start to a degree, but to many CCs are seen as minor league, a step down. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jan 3, 2020 15:09:37 GMT -8
-2013 we were barely emerging from a significant recession, one that saw "unskilled" labor, manufacturing and countless non-degree holding jobs get devastated across the country. Hell, I was laid off in the beginning of it (2009) from the well paying at the time job I held at Hewlett-Packard with only a high school diploma and some college under my belt. I went back to college myself! For a lot of years, a college degree was your only hope at a good paying job. As the economy recovered, the trades recovered, some manufacturing has popped up. Some new careers have emerged that only require community college certification. The college degree is less important now than 7 years ago and young people recognize that. And of course, the absolutely ridiculous and entirely indefensible cost of college is turning people away. Why start off $100K in debt with no guarantee of work for your effort? We are due for a recession again at some point in the next couple years. It will probably push people back to college again. We are currently in the longest period of economic expansion in history, so some sort of a slow down is entirely possible/expected. Some economists will argue that there was no true recession in 2001. (The argument centers first around whether the data that the NBER used was correct or not. The second argument is that the 2001 recession was almost caused solely by Fed interference.) If there was no recession in 2001, then, the true record would still be the growth experienced March 1991 (end of Cold War) - December 2007 (beginning of Great Recession), a period of 201 months. If that is true, then you may not see another recession until March 2026. Additionally, the recovery from the Great Recession has been very slow and is still not very pronounced. By way of example, we have only seen the economy grow by 27.6% since the Great Recession ended. The growth from the End of the Cold War to the Recession of 2001 was 43.3%. At the rate of growth that we have seen under Obama and Trump combined, we will not hit 43.3% until February 2025. Unless and until America's economy begins to act in a way that is consistent with previous modelling. Trying to use previous modelling to determine whether there will be a bull or bear market going forward seems pretty stupid to me, but, what do I know? I am just a doctor. My personal take on all of this is that capitalism is a boom and bust sort of deal. There has simply not been a boom for there to be a bust. |
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Post by pitbeavs on Jan 3, 2020 15:23:49 GMT -8
I was able to get the first link to work, you just had to scroll down to see the article. Yes, that second link is the same article. I find this interesting... "Today, 45% fewer 18- to 29-year-olds say going to college is “very important” than in 2013. A 45% drop in just seven years." I've seen this with my oldest child and his high school classmates. I'd say the tide is turning for sure. The question for the Beaver faithful, is how should this impact our proposed plan to remodel the other side of the stadium? I'm still a fan of a remodel for sure. If this article is right, enrollment will drop but that doesn't have to impact attendance at a football game. Yes, moving forward we will have fewer "alumni" but my son who is in the workforce and not enrolled in any higher education at this time comes to every home Beaver football game. It will be interesting to see if enrollment actually drops at OSU and how the Admin and state level politicians react to that. -2013 we were barely emerging from a significant recession, one that saw "unskilled" labor, manufacturing and countless non-degree holding jobs get devastated across the country. Hell, I was laid off in the beginning of it (2009) from the well paying at the time job I held at Hewlett-Packard with only a high school diploma and some college under my belt. I went back to college myself! For a lot of years, a college degree was your only hope at a good paying job. As the economy recovered, the trades recovered, some manufacturing has popped up. Some new careers have emerged that only require community college certification. The college degree is less important now than 7 years ago and young people recognize that. And of course, the absolutely ridiculous and entirely indefensible cost of college is turning people away. Why start off $100K in debt with no guarantee of work for your effort? We are due for a recession again at some point in the next couple years. It will probably push people back to college again. Recession 4Q 2020. Just in time for the election. |
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