2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,837 
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Jan 8, 2019 20:07:43 GMT -8
I had us pegged for 3rd *with* Kat, behind uo and Stanford. Now I am of two minds:
Pessimistic: Depending on whether there is any distance between the 3 and 4 spot in the Pac-12, we might remain there, but I think we are going to see a couple of teams with very few Ls (aforementioned uo and Stanford), several teams that will take turns beating up on each other (OSU, UA, UU, ASU...), and some teams (2 of which we have already seen) who are going to be celebrating every few-and-far-between Ws, though any team on an off night could get one of those Ls. KTMac is going to continue to defer, JG doesn't remind us of Ruth or Marie, Taya is too outside-in, DS can't shoulder the load, Mik is up and down, Maddie/Janessa have hit their ceiling, Jazz is a frosh still finding her way, etc. etc. Depending on how we match up in the post-season with our opponents, we could win the first few (e.g. 2) games, though go up against a team with a strong inside game and us with an off night from behind the arc, and we could be two-and-done after a nail biter game 1.
Optimistic: We still have a lot of weapons. And several of them are multidimensional - DS, Mik, Taya. All of them are still making strides, learning to play with such a dynamic PG (who is also making strides). Get just one or two to make the "Kolbie leap", and we are right there threatening for the Pac-12 title. We were pretty sure Post position was going to be by committee from the onset, and with SR at the helm identifying tasteful combinations of Maddie, Janessa, Taya, JG inside, plus finding the hot hands outside, we will be a tough out. Most likely to surprise this year - 1) KTMac - the senior is a mismatch almost every outing, she just has to stay aggressive 2) Simmons - has played against top shelf competition for years, just needs to find herself 3) Taya - rebounding has really picked up, scoring is next 4) Aleah - doing everything a bit better, on a great trajectory 5) Maddie - finding a paint and midrange game, and playing with physicality 6) Joanna - just need a couple points, boards and blocks while she goes all out, knowing she'll get breathers 7) Janessa - spark off the bench in short stints.....and we might have a different player take a mini-Kolbie step different games, different weeks, and because they will all get minutes, we will find them......hard to game plan against that, and the collective improvement will be dazzling to watch. And I don't think we have seen Mik and DS's ceiling yet......SR will be COTY while we bask in the glow of being the last Pac-12 team standing in the NCAAs.....
What makes this season intriguing to me is we are likely somewhere in between these two views, and every game will be fascinating!
Go Beavers!
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Jan 8, 2019 20:39:01 GMT -8
Post by jegerklog on Jan 8, 2019 20:39:01 GMT -8
I just wonder if there is anyway Patricia Morris will make a significant contribution this year during PAC 12 play. Some say her high school basketball training was not very good. I believe she was recruited because she is very athletic for 6’7”. If you doubt her athleticism, just challenge her to a race in the pool or a game of tennis (and whatever you do don’t let her get to the net). But trying to develop her basketball skills and learn the complex defense is a lot to hope for in the first year.
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Jan 8, 2019 21:02:16 GMT -8
Post by rmancarl on Jan 8, 2019 21:02:16 GMT -8
I too have both a pessimistic and optimistic view. I said before getting to Pac12 play that 11-7 was very possible. Last year's team only lost 4 Pac 12 games, but that was with 3 OT victories, and Marie carrying the team in several games. Had the OT games gone the other way, that team would have lost 7.
It is difficult to look at this season and see any easy road victories. This year's Beavers haven't even played a true road game yet.
The optimistic side of me says, Destiny can carry this team in some games, Taya can continue to rebound as she has the last few games, that Maddie can defend some of the bigger post, that Katie can be more aggressive and step it up, that Jo can start hitting some of those shots she's missed the last few games, and that the 'threes' can continue fall despite the loss of Kat.
I know SR will get the best out of this team, and these girls are "family" and I think they will play like it. How many wins that ends up being, I really have no idea. I could see a lot of teams in this league end up beating each other up.
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Jan 8, 2019 21:32:21 GMT -8
Post by beaveragain on Jan 8, 2019 21:32:21 GMT -8
Over in U of Conn land they wonder about how good they really can be unless they have a dominant player. Seems like we may have a player like that here.
For those worried that the Beav's are too oriented toward the 3 I think that
A- The National Championship has been won by a 3 oriented team, why not again.
B- Mik and Destiny's ability to penetrate gives us another way to score that opens up the 3 for higher % shots.
Basketball is won by the combination of scoring and defending. With Kat they had the luxury of outscoring other teams and playing decent defense. I think that others need to take up some slack on scoring but they need to crank up the defense even more.
OSU in the past has been in the top 20 in holding down the other teams 3's %. This year they are ranked over 100. It seems likely that part of that is the lack of a shot blocker in the center so that they have allowed more space to make sure they don't get blown past on drives. This allows the other team more space for shooting the 3. Not sure what the answer to that is.
SR said in the after game presser that they need someone to step up and lead the defense. Last year Katie led the offense pretty much to take some of the burden off of Mik, but this year it's the PG's. But on defense hmmm, wonder who SR had in mind to lead the defense.
I think that the Beav's need to crank up their defense to overcome Kat's loss. I think that the people they have are completely capable of that, but doing it is different from being capable of it.
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Post by bvrbooster on Jan 8, 2019 22:55:48 GMT -8
I think some of you are giving way too much credit at this point to the other teams in the conference, and too little to us.
On the defensive side of things, we're currently 17th in the nation in opponent's field goal percentage (last year's team was 8th) and 3rd in the nation in rebounding margin (last year, 7th). We're far from chopped liver there, with or without Tudor.
The offense is 8th in the nation in scoring margin, 8th in overall field goal percentage, 8th in assists per game, and 1st in 3 point field goal percentage. (Last year 24, 8, 7, and 1) And, oh yeah, we're ranked number 10 in the nation. Utah ain't, Arizona ain't, ...
It is certainly the truth that many schools with impressive records prior to conference play wind up losing 7 or 8 in conference, and don't make the tournament. That is a much more likely outcome for Arizona and Utah (where I expect 3 wins) than for us. I also anticipate beating both Washington schools again, USC twice, UCLA at least once, and Colorado. That gets us to 11. Beat Arizona State just once, UCLA on Friday or Cal at Berkeley, and Oregon here - voila!, 14 wins.
You heard it here first.
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Jan 8, 2019 23:14:16 GMT -8
via mobile
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Post by baseba1111 on Jan 8, 2019 23:14:16 GMT -8
I think some of you are giving way too much credit at this point to the other teams in the conference, and too little to us. On the defensive side of things, we're currently 17th in the nation in opponent's field goal percentage (last year's team was 8th) and 3rd in the nation in rebounding margin (last year, 7th). We're far from chopped liver there, with or without Tudor. The offense is 8th in the nation in scoring margin, 8th in overall field goal percentage, 8th in assists per game, and 1st in 3 point field goal percentage. (Last year 24, 8, 7, and 1) And, oh yeah, we're ranked number 10 in the nation. Utah ain't, Arizona ain't, ... It is certainly the truth that many schools with impressive records prior to conference play wind up losing 7 or 8 in conference, and don't make the tournament. That is a much more likely outcome for Arizona and Utah (where I expect 3 wins) than for us. I also anticipate beating both Washington schools again, USC twice, UCLA at least once, and Colorado. That gets us to 11. Beat Arizona State just once, UCLA on Friday or Cal at Berkeley, and Oregon here - voila!, 14 wins. You heard it here first. Just as you are giving far too much credence to "stats" based on games vs 9-10 inferior opponents. Most of which would win 3 or less games in the Pac12. |
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Jan 8, 2019 23:34:16 GMT -8
Post by bvrbooster on Jan 8, 2019 23:34:16 GMT -8
Possibly. We shall see.
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Post by 411500 on Jan 9, 2019 8:49:40 GMT -8
Late to the table here, but just want to say that I enjoyed reading 2nd GenBeaver's plus-minus analysis of the Beaver team.
Nice way to lay out the two general viewpoints about how we'll make it thru the season.....
I will say that most of us are so invested in this team, so passionate about the coach, and so committed to the players that no one, in their hearts, wants to feel pessimistic about the season..We all want success. We all want wins.
But predicting what will happen on the court cannot be based solely on the heart, or on hope. There's a lot of thinking and analysis that goes into predicting the unknowns. And even more if you plan to predict ACCURATELY.
Anyway, it's too early in the morning for me to take this very far....
I'm pretty much in the "pessimistic" category that 2ndGenBeaver described. I wish I weren't. I wish I were more upbeat. Mainly because I've already bought Pac-12 tourney tickets, and have made travel arrangements to take in the Arizona & LA road trips....
So, my heart tells me we've got a good chance, but my mind tells me you don't win important games with virtually no post presence and the loss of your most dangerous 3 point shooter....
GO BEAVS !!
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Post by Werebeaver on Jan 9, 2019 9:05:52 GMT -8
The conversations here about the team’s deficiencies are certainly entertaining if not illuminating. And they’re why we love message boards.
I can tell you one thing for certain - This team and staff fully expect to win every time they lace ‘em up and hit the court.
So as far as I’m concerned they are definitely contenders for a conference championship until that point when someone proves otherwise-on the hardwood.
As of this moment they are tied for first in the PAC-12.
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Jan 9, 2019 10:46:45 GMT -8
Post by lotrader on Jan 9, 2019 10:46:45 GMT -8
This weekend's results will provide considerable clarity on which view we should adopt. UCLA is the perfect team to illuminate the OSU WBB Team's weaknesses & strengths.
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Post by beaverstever on Jan 9, 2019 12:51:23 GMT -8
I never had hopes that AA was going to be a defensive force on top-tier 5s, her game would have to change a lot for that to happen. I had hopes that Morris could get there defensively, but that hasn't happened, and Janessa wasn't going to suddenly develop the quickness needed either. However, this team still has good overall size beyond our bigs. I'd like to see their game develop more intensity defensively on the guards, and try to force a lot more turnovers before the other team's bigs can even get a chance to hurt us. Play like their going to be subbed out if their defensive intensity drops, because this team has the depth to do that. We can still have scoring inside the key come from DS and Pivec (and I think Simmons is capable of being a very good slasher as well) - but they need to get to the point of a) finishing well, b) dishing quickly to the posts offensive player when that rotation happens and c) kicking back out for open 3s. Destiny is already doing this very well at times (finishing consistently being the biggest struggle), and when you slashers that can easily get by defenders, which we have, if these slashers see the defensive rotations (weak spots) well, there is no defense against it. Remember when Arizona won it all in '97 with basically no talented bigs but they had Jason Terry, Mike Bibby and Miles Simon as guards? Yea, I'd like to see the lady Beavs channel that  |
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Post by rmancarl on Jan 9, 2019 13:03:21 GMT -8
Will this weekend really let us know how good this OSU WBB team is going to be the remainder of the year? I've told myself the same thing...."This weekend will let us know where this team really stands", but what about last season? I wasn't on this board at the time, but I wonder where everyone thought the Beavs stood after getting blown out by UCLA and losing to USC on the same weekend last year? I'm guessing a lot fans had a bit of the pessimistic view.
For me, as good as Marie was all season, it seemed like it was after that LA trip weekend that she really began to take over and the team began to gel/jell. As much as I like this team, and as good as I think they are, or can be, I only see one player that I think can take over a game, and that's Destiny. This past Sunday may be an example, or it may be that we may have to wait until her junior or senior season before she is ready. Whatever the case, I was around when Gary Payton used to pretty much 'will' his teams to victory. Anybody that was around at the time, will never forget Gary's 58 points in an OT victory over USC. If this team is to challenge for the title, I think there may be some games that Destiny has to take over.....but I don't know if she is ready yet. I think we'll see this team continue to improve as the season goes along, and the future beyond this year continues to look very bright.
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2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,837
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Depth
Jan 9, 2019 13:07:27 GMT -8
Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Jan 9, 2019 13:07:27 GMT -8
This weekend's results will provide considerable clarity on which view we should adopt. UCLA is the perfect team to illuminate the OSU WBB Team's weaknesses & strengths. And looking at the Game Notes for the UCLA game, historically speaking we are 7 - 27 all time down there, haven't won there since 2015. The 84-49 thrashing down there last year really exposed things for us to work on. So a win or close game would be huge given our current circumstances, and to your point, any result will tell us a lot about our team..... Go Beavers! |
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Jan 9, 2019 16:09:31 GMT -8
Post by lotrader on Jan 9, 2019 16:09:31 GMT -8
Will this weekend really let us know how good this OSU WBB team is going to be the remainder of the year? I've told myself the same thing...."This weekend will let us know where this team really stands", but what about last season? I wasn't on this board at the time, but I wonder where everyone thought the Beavs stood after getting blown out by UCLA and losing to USC on the same weekend last year? I'm guessing a lot fans had a bit of the pessimistic view. For me, as good as Marie was all season, it seemed like it was after that LA trip weekend that she really began to take over and the team began to gel/jell. As much as I like this team, and as good as I think they are, or can be, I only see one player that I think can take over a game, and that's Destiny. This past Sunday may be an example, or it may be that we may have to wait until her junior or senior season before she is ready. Whatever the case, I was around when Gary Payton used to pretty much 'will' his teams to victory. Anybody that was around at the time, will never forget Gary's 58 points in an OT victory over USC. If this team is to challenge for the title, I think there may be some games that Destiny has to take over.....but I don't know if she is ready yet. I think we'll see this team continue to improve as the season goes along, and the future beyond this year continues to look very bright. Last season's trip to LA Schools absolutely illuminated OSU strengths/weaknesses. OSU learned a great deal from this trip. Coaches and players have stated that many times. The current roster has yet to play an "away" game, and how well OSU performs in a PAC-12 competitor's arena should likewise be illuminating to all interested parties (coaches, players, fans, etc.). |
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Post by mbabeav on Jan 11, 2019 23:32:17 GMT -8
Based upon tonight's results and the improved play from our Center position, I'm sticking with my original post
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