Post by beaverstever on Feb 25, 2016 22:04:12 GMT -8
The teams surrounding OSU:
#5 USC is currently getting boat-raced @stanford. They then will go to and finish up at home vs. OSU and hole. OSU is the only game that they'd be expected to win of those. They would be expected to finish 9-9. (they could also quite easily fall to 8-10, and clear into the NIT)
#6 Colorado has ASU next at home, and then @utah. They likely finish 10-8 and in 5th.
#7 UW now goes to hole, and finishes at home vs. WSU. They likely finish 9-9
#8 OSU Home vs. WSU, then @ucla and @usc. They'd be expected to finish 8-10
#9 Stanford beats USC, then gets UCLA at home, followed by @asu and @ua. Hard to read, but 8-10 seems pretty reasonable.
#10 UCLA: @stanford, and then home vs. the Oregon schools. 8-10 is probably their best case, but only at the expense of Stanford finishing worse than 8-10.
So if things play out per the Vegas odds, OSU finishes tied for 8th with Stanford or UCLA and plays one of those two in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament. If OSU loses to USC but beats UCLA, then OSU ends up in a 3 way tie for sixth with UW and USC, I believe OSU would end up playing ASU in the first round based on tiebrakers. If OSU beats USC, they should finish in a 2-way tie with UW for 6th, beat them in the tiebreaker, and OSU gets ASU in the first round of the tournament. If OSU wins out, they are likely tied with CU for 5th and end up with ASU or WSU in the first round.
I like OSU's chances vs. USC better than UCLA. USC seems to struggle with teams unwilling to engage in their style of play (see OSU and Stanford tonight) more than UCLA who clearly was a defensive personnel matchup problem for us in Corvallis. Get the next 2, and things should fall about as nicely as you could hope for the Beavs - a nice first-round tournament matchup, and a tie for sixth in the conference (and the much better resume).
*Disclaimer: My analysis above is highly subject to error, but I'm sure my work will be checked
#5 USC is currently getting boat-raced @stanford. They then will go to and finish up at home vs. OSU and hole. OSU is the only game that they'd be expected to win of those. They would be expected to finish 9-9. (they could also quite easily fall to 8-10, and clear into the NIT)
#6 Colorado has ASU next at home, and then @utah. They likely finish 10-8 and in 5th.
#7 UW now goes to hole, and finishes at home vs. WSU. They likely finish 9-9
#8 OSU Home vs. WSU, then @ucla and @usc. They'd be expected to finish 8-10
#9 Stanford beats USC, then gets UCLA at home, followed by @asu and @ua. Hard to read, but 8-10 seems pretty reasonable.
#10 UCLA: @stanford, and then home vs. the Oregon schools. 8-10 is probably their best case, but only at the expense of Stanford finishing worse than 8-10.
So if things play out per the Vegas odds, OSU finishes tied for 8th with Stanford or UCLA and plays one of those two in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament. If OSU loses to USC but beats UCLA, then OSU ends up in a 3 way tie for sixth with UW and USC, I believe OSU would end up playing ASU in the first round based on tiebrakers. If OSU beats USC, they should finish in a 2-way tie with UW for 6th, beat them in the tiebreaker, and OSU gets ASU in the first round of the tournament. If OSU wins out, they are likely tied with CU for 5th and end up with ASU or WSU in the first round.
I like OSU's chances vs. USC better than UCLA. USC seems to struggle with teams unwilling to engage in their style of play (see OSU and Stanford tonight) more than UCLA who clearly was a defensive personnel matchup problem for us in Corvallis. Get the next 2, and things should fall about as nicely as you could hope for the Beavs - a nice first-round tournament matchup, and a tie for sixth in the conference (and the much better resume).
*Disclaimer: My analysis above is highly subject to error, but I'm sure my work will be checked