Post by smizni on Feb 23, 2016 11:37:15 GMT -8
The consensus on this board seems to be that the Pac-12 will get 6, maybe 7 teams into the tournament. The beavers right now are tied for 8th with four games left to play. They are 1.5 games behind Washington and Colorado for sixth.
Most on this board agree that the beavers need to go 3-1 in the next four to have a chance at the tournament. So my premise will assume that happens. I think the beavs will beat both Washington schools and one in LA. So I will make that part of the premise as well.
If the beavers beat the huskies and the cougs they will be 8-8. Both Washington schools will likely lose to Oregon. This would put OSU at worst in a tie for 7th if UCLA or Stanford also sweep this weekend. It could also put them in sixth with two games remaining if Colorado is swept on the road by the Arizona schools.
Washington and Colorado only have one game left after this weekend. So if OSU wins one in LA and Washington wins against WSU, in the given scenario, the OSU and Washington will be tied with 9 Pac-12 wins. If Colorado and USC only win one of their last remaining games and either Stanford or UCLA win 3 of their last four then there could be a 5 or six way tie for 5th in the conference. Not knowing the tie breakers I think this log jam would help the beavers out. They would probably need a win in their first conference tournament game, but that would put them in.
How likely is a 5 or six way tie for fifth, not incredibly likely but not completely out of the realm of possiblitiies. But a 3-1 finish for the beavers likely will put them in the top six in the conference standings.
That is probably good enough to make the tournament this year.
Most on this board agree that the beavers need to go 3-1 in the next four to have a chance at the tournament. So my premise will assume that happens. I think the beavs will beat both Washington schools and one in LA. So I will make that part of the premise as well.
If the beavers beat the huskies and the cougs they will be 8-8. Both Washington schools will likely lose to Oregon. This would put OSU at worst in a tie for 7th if UCLA or Stanford also sweep this weekend. It could also put them in sixth with two games remaining if Colorado is swept on the road by the Arizona schools.
Washington and Colorado only have one game left after this weekend. So if OSU wins one in LA and Washington wins against WSU, in the given scenario, the OSU and Washington will be tied with 9 Pac-12 wins. If Colorado and USC only win one of their last remaining games and either Stanford or UCLA win 3 of their last four then there could be a 5 or six way tie for 5th in the conference. Not knowing the tie breakers I think this log jam would help the beavers out. They would probably need a win in their first conference tournament game, but that would put them in.
How likely is a 5 or six way tie for fifth, not incredibly likely but not completely out of the realm of possiblitiies. But a 3-1 finish for the beavers likely will put them in the top six in the conference standings.
That is probably good enough to make the tournament this year.
