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Post by ricke71 on May 20, 2018 16:10:49 GMT -8
I suppose the Beavers inclusion or exclusion from Top 8 RPI would depend on how they do against UCLA (need 2 of 3, I believe) and likely ALSO on how Ole Miss & Florida State do next week/weekend.... and Stetson / NC ?
This boards' true experts will weigh in soon I suspect.
p.s. looking deeper at this Nolan RP - Stetson, NC and OR State are essentially tied for 6th: NC .6036, Stetson .6036, Beavs .6035. Ole Miss in 9th is at .6015.
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Post by spudbeaver on May 20, 2018 18:18:54 GMT -8
I’m not sure the angst over Rpi even matters. Until we get a reliable 3rd starter this team won’t go too far no matter where they start, unless they can use 2 starters the whole way. Which is a big no.
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Post by ricke71 on May 20, 2018 18:57:06 GMT -8
I’m not sure the angst over Rpi even matters. Until we get a reliable 3rd starter this team won’t go to far no matter where they start, unless they can use 2 starters the whole way. Which is a big no. depends on definition of “go far”. True enough you have to win 3 times in Regional to advance. But it’s not like Abel, Gambrell (or even Donovan or Chamberlain) have no shot, especially in a game when the offense is clicking in friendly Goss. And THEN, in Super Regional, two wins does the trick. To my thinking the RPI matters because it is a factor in whether or not all of the games up to that point would be played at home in Goss. Obviously, lack of staff depth becomes a big drawback after that - in Omaha. |
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Post by spudbeaver on May 20, 2018 19:56:10 GMT -8
I’m not sure the angst over Rpi even matters. Until we get a reliable 3rd starter this team won’t go to far no matter where they start, unless they can use 2 starters the whole way. Which is a big no. depends on definition of “go far”. True enough you have to win 3 times in Regional to advance. But it’s not like Abel, Gambrell (or even Donovan or Chamberlain) have no shot, especially in a game when the offense is clicking in friendly Goss. And THEN, in Super Regional, two wins does the trick. To my thinking the RPI matters because it is a factor in whether or not all of the games up to that point would be played at home in Goss. Obviously, lack of staff depth becomes a big drawback after that - in Omaha. Which of course is the only goal and object of the topic. We’ll see. Hope I’m wrong. That happens a lot!!! |
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Post by joecool on May 20, 2018 21:03:15 GMT -8
Can we just write Trojans and Bruins and stop with this childish BS.
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Post by beavermd on May 20, 2018 21:46:20 GMT -8
I’m not sure the angst over Rpi even matters. Until we get a reliable 3rd starter this team won’t go to far no matter where they start, unless they can use 2 starters the whole way. Which is a big no. Well, in regional play, if you win your first two games then you’re going to be going against your opponents 4th/5th starter. I like our odds with our offense in that scenario. |
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Post by tamatrix on May 20, 2018 22:06:19 GMT -8
2/3 vs UCLA is plenty for National Seed. Trust this team and coaches folks. They know what they have and will adjust as necessary. A game 3 in LA that really in the scheme of things doesn't matter is a chance to try things out.
As another benny's house poster rights...
BELIEVE!
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Post by spudbeaver on May 21, 2018 5:42:00 GMT -8
I’m not sure the angst over Rpi even matters. Until we get a reliable 3rd starter this team won’t go to far no matter where they start, unless they can use 2 starters the whole way. Which is a big no. Well, in regional play, if you win your first two games then you’re going to be going against your opponents 4th/5th starter. I like our odds with our offense in that scenario. Right. Then what? Won’t go too far are the key words. |
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Post by beavermd on May 21, 2018 6:57:56 GMT -8
Well, in regional play, if you win your first two games then you’re going to be going against your opponents 4th/5th starter. I like our odds with our offense in that scenario. Right. Then what? Won’t go too far are the key words. Then you go to the Supers where you only need two wins to advance. |
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Post by ricke71 on May 21, 2018 7:36:08 GMT -8
Right. Then what? Won’t go too far are the key words. Then you go to the Supers where you only need two wins to advance. ...and then you arrive in Omaha, this time with the best LHP in the country on your squad to get things started off right.... Admittedly such a scenario takes the team playing up to its capabilities, and probably a few breaks and a dose of luck here and there during the Regionals / Supers - But the same could be said for every team that reaches Omaha. Even #1 Florida, who just got swept by a team that was 28-24 at the start of their weekend series. |
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Post by spudbeaver on May 21, 2018 8:12:41 GMT -8
Right. Then what? Won’t go too far are the key words. Then you go to the Supers where you only need two wins to advance. So what you're saying is for you, just getting to Omaha is enough? |
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Post by spudbeaver on May 21, 2018 8:13:37 GMT -8
Right. Then what? Won’t go too far are the key words. Then we play a team with a worse record than us and almost assuredly less talent in the bullpen or anywhere else on the field? Keep going! And then? Like I said. I hope the heck I'm wrong, and admitted to being wrong many times. |
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Post by mbabeav on May 21, 2018 9:29:28 GMT -8
We are #7 right now, and the teams we can catch are done with their season for the most part, or playing lesser teams than we are this weekend. Take two of three from Ruins, and we are a 3-4 seed - I don't want to be #1 seed, that is bad juju. I just regret that we will not win the Pac-12 unless something really wild happens this weekend. We can sweep UCLA at home, but not so sure that pups can sweep furd.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 21, 2018 15:18:57 GMT -8
In order to finish top eight in RPI, absent help, the answer is probably yes. However, you would have to assume that 2-1 against UCLA is going to be good enough to net a National Seed, unless Washington sweeps Stanford. Then, the Huskies win the Pac-12, the Beavers finish third in conference, and all bets are off. If UCLA goes 2-1 in Corvallis, Oregon State will be, at best, third in the Pac-12. If Washington goes 2-1 or better against Stanford, the Beavers will be in fourth. That makes a National Seed seem unlikely to me. A UCLA sweep makes a National Seed even more unlikely. The Bruins have an outside shot at hosting, if they can take the first two games in Corvallis. I assume that Oregon State probably has done enough to host a Regional at this point, but two bad games on Thursday and Friday might change that assumption. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 21, 2018 15:54:58 GMT -8
I suppose the Beavers inclusion or exclusion from Top 8 RPI would depend on how they do against UCLA (need 2 of 3, I believe) and likely ALSO on how Ole Miss & Florida State do next week/weekend.... and Stetson / NC ? This boards' true experts will weigh in soon I suspect. p.s. looking deeper at this Nolan RP - Stetson, NC and OR State are essentially tied for 6th: NC .6036, Stetson .6036, Beavs .6035. Ole Miss in 9th is at .6015. North Carolina, Oregon State, and Stetson are all very tight, within a 10,000th of one another. North Carolina won the ACC regular season championship. They get Pittsburgh and the Panthers' 121st-ranked RPI on Wednesday and then Georgia Tech and the Wreck's 46th-ranked RPI on Friday. The games are played in Durham, less than 25 minutes from UNC. Absent a bunch of Duke fans showing up (the Duke-Louisville game on Friday is right before the Georgia Tech-North Carolina game), UNC fans should swamp the games with Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. Stetson gets New Jersey Tech and their 147th-ranked RPI on Wednesday. If Lipscomb loses, Lipscomb, and their 172nd-ranked RPI, will be the next opponent. Otherwise, the opponent will be the loser of Kennessaw State (RPI 111) and North Florida (RPI 127). Lipscomb and Stetson losses to start the tournament would be very helpful to Oregon State's cause. Ole Miss quietly finished second in the SEC, two games behind Florida. The Rebels get the Auburn (RPI 12)-Kentucky (RPI 25) winner on Wednesday. Auburn is about an hour closer to Hoover than Oxford. Lexington is more than six hours away from Hoover. #5 Texas Tech is closer to Oregon State in RPI than #10 Florida State. The Raiders finished third in the conference and play #6 TCU (RPI 64) on Wednesday with Oklahoma (RPI 28) or West Virginia (RPI 53) on Thursday. #10 Florida State finished sixth in the ACC. They get #10 Virginia (RPI 87) tomorrow and NC State (RPI 15) on Friday. Both Virginia and NC State will be playing much closer to home. We should have a much better understanding of the lay of the land tomorrow. |
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