|
|
Post by eugenedave on Feb 21, 2016 8:08:36 GMT -8
Like it or not, the quacks have a very good team this year. Nobody else has figured out how to beat them in their house.
If we can sweep the Washington schools at home, do we still get our dance card?
|
|
|
|
Post by treasurevalleybeav on Feb 21, 2016 8:18:00 GMT -8
Absolutely not. But we do need to sweep the Washington schools at Gill and split the LA schools.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaverdreams on Feb 21, 2016 10:57:30 GMT -8
I never expected a win in Eugene, so it doesn't factor in too much. The WAY we lost does bother me some however. Sweep the WA schools, and hope for a split in LA.
|
|
|
|
Post by kvgeorge on Feb 21, 2016 15:50:15 GMT -8
No.
|
|
|
|
Post by beavsaregood on Feb 22, 2016 5:04:31 GMT -8
Beavs are in a bad place in regards to getting into the dance. As said before, Beavs need to sweep the WA schools and get a split on the road in socal(Beavs play bad on the road). .............and probably go on a mini-run in the pac tourney. A tall order. It would be great to get invited, but, the Beavs have not taken care of business. I still hold out hope, but, the Beavs are running out of time. I hope the Beavs go to the NIT as their consolation.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaverstever on Feb 22, 2016 11:16:50 GMT -8
Beavs are in a bad place in regards to getting into the dance. As said before, Beavs need to sweep the WA schools and get a split on the road in socal(Beavs play bad on the road). .............and probably go on a mini-run in the pac tourney. A tall order. It would be great to get invited, but, the Beavs have not taken care of business. I still hold out hope, but, the Beavs are running out of time. I hope the Beavs go to the NIT as their consolation. I just don't see them in a bad place. Certainly not idea, but needing to win two games at home (games where they'd likely be favorites in both), as well as win one of two games on the road (one against a team that has been sliding and will likely not be very motivated, the other has significantly come back to earth of late) is a pretty decent spot to be in - they still control their destiny. Yes, no margin for error, but that's a good tune-up for the tourney mentality anyway. Would you see Arizona as in a bad place? Probably nobody here thinks that - yet if you look at their resume, it's pretty ugly even compared to OSU's in a lot of ways. Specifically, their BEST WIN currently is Oregon State! Meanwhile, OSU has wins over two top-10 RPI teams. Yet Arizona is being projected as a #6 seed. espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/12espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/204Yes, they have a lot fewer loses, but the selection committee has historically rewarded extremes - bad losses hurt more, good wins help more. Having beaten hole and Utah in particular are a really a big deal for OSU at this point, and the Cal win is ramping up fast. OSU is obviously precariously on the bubble at this point, but there's good reason they've been in the discussion throughout and still very much are in the mix. Losing in Eugene hardly budged the RPI as well. I honestly think they are likely in if they win both games this week no matter what happens after that - just my opinion of course, but they just have the resume of a team that we've seen the committee reward historically - a team that doesn't have a gaudy record, but no bad losses and some big wins. |
|
|
|
Post by baseba1111 on Feb 22, 2016 12:02:25 GMT -8
"Would you see Arizona as in a bad place?"
Hmmmmm they are tied for 1st in the conference... they've been to the tourney how many straight years/29 of the last 30 I think? It matters... current and past resumes count whether we like it or not. RPI wins or not, there is no comparison between the teams or the programs over the past 30 years.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaverstever on Feb 22, 2016 12:22:05 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by atownbeaver on Feb 22, 2016 13:29:47 GMT -8
Like it or not, the quacks have a very good team this year. Nobody else has figured out how to beat them in their house. If we can sweep the Washington schools at home, do we still get our dance card? Sweeping the Washington schools is the bare minimum and it would be an outside shot. Thankfully our RPI and SOS is very good. Beating on of the LA schools would do it for certain (in my opinion, of course). I think most projections that had us in, figured we'd lose the road games and win the home games. |
|
|
|
Post by ag87 on Feb 22, 2016 15:55:58 GMT -8
So Beaverfever, if we finish the regular season 3-1 and then win two games in the league tournament, I think our RPI would be about #22. Do you agree? What do you think it would be with that scenario? Related, what do you think OSU's RPI needs to be to be invited to the tournament? My opinion is that anything 30 or less is a lock. 31-35 is about 85% invited, high 30's is a 60% chance, and 40-49 is a 40% and descending chance. What are you basing your thoughts on? Do you think the RPI is not a large factor regarding who makes the tournament? Do you think we will be punished for being crappy for so many years? I'm curious to know why you are pessimistic.
|
|
|
|
Post by baseba1111 on Feb 22, 2016 16:04:47 GMT -8
I think it will have more to do with the # of teams... the Pac12 just doesn't have 7-8 deserving teams... I'm think 6 go for sure, 7th tops... and who knows when all the smaller bids/upsets come around...
Although a weird year, do the bottom 58 or so matter other than breaking into the dance? So, why not us, even though we really do not "deserve" it.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaverstever on Feb 22, 2016 21:36:18 GMT -8
One other thing on the 'only six or seven' Pac-12 teams - OSU doesn't have to finish top 6-7 in the conference to be one of those. While it's rare, it's has happened (I believe at OSU's expense in Baseball not that long ago). Neither UW or USC have a top-25 RPI win (OSU has 3), and Colorado has 2 but is also 3-7 vs top 50 while OSU is 6-6 (with 3 of those losses to top 10 RPIs). Additionally, Colorado, UW and USC also got to play WSU twice, and of course OSU won't. All 3 of those teams also get to play ASU at home (the next worst team in the conference), and OSU will not. Conference standings alone aren't a fair comparison when teams don't play the same schedule, which has changes with all the super-conferences - and the committee is quite aware of this. So while there's not a lot of historical precedence for skipping over teams, it has happened and I believe it's going to happen more with the trend towards larger conferences and uneven conference schedules. There's a reason why OSU has a #3 SOS, while UW is at #33, USC has #43, Colorado is at #60. Part of this is that OSU's pre-season schedule was supposedly not very impressive, but ended up shaping up to be pretty surprising (e.g. OSU's win over Tulsa is a lot more impressive than Arizona's win over Gonzaga per the RPI - but nobody thought that at the time). A combination of OSU's non-conference being better than advertised, and their conference scheduling to date biasing towards the better teams has put the SOS gap quite wide compared to those in front of them.
|
|
|
|
Post by baseba1111 on Feb 22, 2016 22:45:24 GMT -8
I think it will have more to do with the # of teams... the Pac12 just doesn't have 7-8 deserving teams... I'm think 6 go for sure, 7th tops... and who knows when all the smaller bids/upsets come around... Although a weird year, do the bottom 58 or so matter other than breaking into the dance? So, why not us, even though we really do not "deserve" it. How do you know the Beavs don't deserve it? You recently admitted you don't follow college hoops, so you probably don't have much of a credible opinion of how we stack up against other competition across the country. Your expectations are skewed on a lot of topics related to these boards. Just because the Beavs aren't Kentucky doesn't mean they're not tourney-worthy, and just because GP2 doesn't have an all-around game ala LeBron doesn't mean he can't/won't be a serviceable pro (to address another recent discussion). A) I don't follow the details of others leagues, especially the smaller typically one bid leagues. But, I do watch a lot of games. But there is a lot more to handing out bids than SOS and wins vs the rpi. B) "How do I know?" Did I say I know? My "Opinion" has as much cred as anyone's whether they watch any games or 1000... it's an opinion. Lol C) Skewed? Because I have opinions that go against the grain in some threads. They're opinions of course they're skewed. D) Tourney worthy is up to a committee. My opinion is they are not good enough/have too many holes to deserve to go. Can they still earn their way? Sure. But, as of this second the Pac 12 isn't getting 8 or 9 teams in. E) Who does have the game of LeBron? Who mentioned that? GPII's future in bball is an unknown. Could he be serviceable? Sure. A defensive stopper type that develops some offensive game... Bruce Bowen class would be a ceiling I think. But, more likely JC like journeyman. But, these are my thoughts. I don't spout them to be right. They're ideas/opinions. Now try having yours without dismissing others as having no cred or being skewed just because they don't parallel yours. |
|
