Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich

chinmusic
Sophomore

Posts: 2,205

Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich May 10, 2018 16:37:49 GMT -8

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Post by chinmusic on May 10, 2018 16:37:49 GMT -8

Two portsiders matchup in Friday night's series opener. Both pitchers have the potential to be early draft picks in next month's MLB Draft. Bubic is 6-3, 220 out of Archbishop Mitty HS in San Jose, CA. In 2017 as a Sophomore he was Stanford's Friday night starter with 15 starts. He completed the season with a 7-6 record and 2.79 ERA with 90 1/3 innings pitched and 96 strikeouts.

Bubic's 2018 stat line coming into the OSU series:

A 7-0 record with a 2.25 ERA. Started 11 games and has thrown 64 innings. He's allowed 46 hits, 18 runs (16 earned), with 22 walks and 5 hit batters. Has struck out 72 opposing batters, and allowed 8 doubles and 3 home runs. He has held opponents to a .206 batting average.

Luke at home is a load. Oregon State wins this one.

Tigardbeav
Junior

Posts: 3,025

Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich May 10, 2018 17:15:50 GMT -8

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Post by Tigardbeav on May 10, 2018 17:15:50 GMT -8

Bold call. It's going to be must see. I'll probably have to pick up the Pac 12 replay after

I'm at an event on Friday night. rats

I kinda think Beavs win one of the 3. But wadda I know. Goss in a playoff atmosphere is special. Could be enough to tip the Friday tilt our way. Then it's on for the series.

Last Edit: May 10, 2018 17:17:50 GMT -8 by Tigardbeav

giantkillers83
Sophomore

Posts: 1,304

Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich May 10, 2018 17:19:39 GMT -8 Tigardbeav, bennysdentist, and 1 more like this

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Post by giantkillers83 on May 10, 2018 17:19:39 GMT -8

May 10, 2018 17:15:50 GMT -8 Tigardbeav said:

Bold call. It's going to be must see. I'll probably have to pick up the Pac 12 replay after

I'm at an event on Friday night. rats

I kinda think Beavs win one of the 3. But wadda I know. Goss in a playoff atmosphere is special. Could be enough to tip the Friday tilt our way. Then it's on for the series.

Faith my friend... Faith.....

beaver1989 Junior Posts: 2,621	Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich May 10, 2018 18:40:57 GMT -8 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by beaver1989 on May 10, 2018 18:40:57 GMT -8 Tristan Beck has been Stanford's Fri starter for much of this year. Bubic usually goes Sat.

chinmusic Sophomore Posts: 2,205	Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich May 10, 2018 22:29:34 GMT -8 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by chinmusic on May 10, 2018 22:29:34 GMT -8 They could start Beck but early in the week prior to their win over Santa Clara on Tuesday, it was mentioned on one of their boards they had announced it was Bubic on Friday. We shall see.

mbabeav
Senior

It's only egregious to Oregon State fans

Posts: 5,635

Grad Year: Which One?

Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich May 11, 2018 9:16:27 GMT -8 beaver1989 likes this

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Post by mbabeav on May 11, 2018 9:16:27 GMT -8

The wild card for Stanfurd is that the Beavs have had a habit this season, especially since Nick has come back, of making the best pitchers look average, and bad a lot of the time. I think we take two out of three - suspect that if they can, they will try and save Jake for a 4-5 inning stint on Sunday. Wind may be blowing out to right Saturday and Sunday and it is going to be warm. I think we hit 5+ home runs as well. Of course some double plays, but how do you avoid them with a near 500 obp, and guys that almost never strike out?

The Furd catcher is in for a serious workout!

Last Edit: May 11, 2018 9:17:08 GMT -8 by mbabeav

baseba1111
Senior

Posts: 9,599

Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich May 11, 2018 10:38:57 GMT -8

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Post by baseba1111 on May 11, 2018 10:38:57 GMT -8

May 11, 2018 9:16:27 GMT -8 mbabeav said:

The wild card for Stanfurd is that the Beavs have had a habit this season, especially since Nick has come back, of making the best pitchers look average, and bad a lot of the time. I think we take two out of three - suspect that if they can, they will try and save Jake for a 4-5 inning stint on Sunday. Wind may be blowing out to right Saturday and Sunday and it is going to be warm. I think we hit 5+ home runs as well. Of course some double plays, but how do you avoid them with a near 500 obp, and guys that almost never strike out?

The Furd catcher is in for a serious workout!

Furd has the BEST pitchers we'll have seen overall and it's really not close. Here are the Pac12 guys we've faced in the top 10 of the league:

4)Deason/Zona 6 IP... 3 ER... managed 5 hits... not sure we made him look average.
6)DeMers/UW 6.2 IP... 4 ER... did get 10 hits... guess that is making him look fairly average, but it was nasty/45
7)Hardy/UW 2.0 IP... 0 ER... managed 0 hits in his relief appearance in the game 3 loss
8)Yovan/UO 7.0 IP... 2 ER... managed 5 hits... again he looked pretty good considering he was a reliever
10)Shortridge/Cal6.0 IP... 2 ER... managed 8 hits... OSU was down 3-2 until Cal went to the pen

Who we still have to face: ranked by ERA
1) BeckB/Furd... 6-0... 1.42... .201 BAA
2) Bird/UCLA... 5-3... 1.87... .268 BAA
3) Bubic/Furd... 7-0... 2.25... .205 BAA
5) Garcia/UCLA... 5-1... 2.37... .187 BAA
9) BeckT/Furd... 7-2...2.66... .231 BAA
11)Pettway/UCLA...7-2... 2.92... .230 BAA

Luke ranked #12... 11-1... 3.01... .225 BAA

Furd opponents hitting .215/Team ERA of .254... also has a great pen statistically... top 5 guys have 79 appearances... ERAs of 0.83/2.08/2.88/3.33... BAAs of .152/.208/.228/.238... 10-2 with 16 saves.

They do have offensive liabilities... top (8) in terms of games started are not that impressive overall.

Some high k/bb ratios 45/12... 41/15...38/24... in three of their top 6 hitters. OBA is not great... 6 of their top 8 in games started are below .400 at .381/.364/.378/.362/.379/.283.

But, if Luke doesn't get a W I'm not sure I see OSU's pitching having a chance to get a W unless it is dramatically different or the sporadic outings of some all come together for a weekend.

abureid
Junior

Posts: 3,493

Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich May 11, 2018 12:19:13 GMT -8 wilkyisdashiznit likes this

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Post by abureid on May 11, 2018 12:19:13 GMT -8

Beavs offense is relentless, there are no easy outs 1-9 and that will be the difference. The lack of 1-2-3 9 pitch innnnings will wear down the Stanford starters. One of the 3 games we will blow open a close game with a big inning
Even with no one on and 2 outs we are a dangerous offense.

wilkyisdashiznit
Terry Baker Club

Wilkypedia

Posts: 13,617

Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich May 11, 2018 12:20:44 GMT -8 baseba1111 and beaver1989 like this

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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 11, 2018 12:20:44 GMT -8

May 11, 2018 10:38:57 GMT -8 baseba1111 said:

May 11, 2018 9:16:27 GMT -8 mbabeav said:

The wild card for Stanfurd is that the Beavs have had a habit this season, especially since Nick has come back, of making the best pitchers look average, and bad a lot of the time. I think we take two out of three - suspect that if they can, they will try and save Jake for a 4-5 inning stint on Sunday. Wind may be blowing out to right Saturday and Sunday and it is going to be warm. I think we hit 5+ home runs as well. Of course some double plays, but how do you avoid them with a near 500 obp, and guys that almost never strike out?

The Furd catcher is in for a serious workout!

Furd has the BEST pitchers we'll have seen overall and it's really not close. Here are the Pac12 guys we've faced in the top 11 of the league:

4)Deason/Zona 6 IP... 3 ER... managed 5 hits... not sure we made him look average.
6)DeMers/UW 6.2 IP... 4 ER... did get 10 hits... guess that is making him look fairly average, but it was nasty/45
7)Hardy/UW 2.0 IP... 0 ER... managed 0 hits in his relief appearance in the game 3 loss
8)Yovan/UO 7.0 IP... 2 ER... managed 5 hits... again he looked pretty good considering he was a reliever
10)Shortridge/Cal6.0 IP... 2 ER... managed 8 hits... OSU was down 3-2 until Cal went to the pen

Who we still have to face: ranked by ERA
1) BeckB/Furd... 6-0... 1.42... .201 BAA
2) Bird/UCLA... 5-3... 1.87... .268 BAA
3) Bubic/Furd... 7-0... 2.25... .205 BAA
5) Garcia/UCLA... 5-1... 2.37... .187 BAA
9) BeckT/Furd... 7-2...2.66... .231 BAA
11)Pettway/UCLA...7-2... 2.92... .230 BAA

Luke ranked #12... 11-1... 3.01... .225 BAA

Furd opponents hitting .215/Team ERA of .254... also has a great pen statistically... top 5 guys have 79 appearances... ERAs of 0.83/2.08/2.88/3.33... BAAs of .152/.208/.228/.238... 10-2 with 16 saves.

They do have offensive liabilities... top (8) in terms of games started are not that impressive overall.

Some high k/bb ratios 45/12... 41/15...38/24... in three of their top 6 hitters. OBA is not great... 6 of their top 8 in games started are below .400 at .381/.364/.378/.362/.379/.283.

But, if Luke doesn't get a W I'm not sure I see OSU's pitching having a chance to get a W unless it is dramatically different or the sporadic outings of some all come together for a weekend.

ERA is an overrated statistic, in my opinion.

BAA

2)Deason/Zona 6 IP... 3 ER... managed 5 hits... Deason's season BAA is .197. Oregon State hit .208 against Deason. Not average.
4)Yovan/UO 7.0 IP... 2 ER... managed 5 hits... Last year, Yovan pitched three innings, at most. However, this year, he has been starting for Oregon since the California series. Yovan's season BAA is .205. Oregon State hit .227 against Yovan. Not average.
6)Marsh/ASU 7.0 IP... 2 ER... managed 5 hits... Marsh's season BAA is .213. Oregon State only hit .208 against Marsh. Not average.
7)DeMers/UW 6.2 IP... 4 ER... did get 10 hits... Oregon State hit .345 against DeMers. Hardy finished the game off for DeMers and did not allow a hit, so I do not think that you can pin it on the weather.
11)Hardy/UW 3.1 IP... 0 ER... Hardy actually relieved DeMers on Saturday and then closed out the game on Sunday. He did not allow a hit in either outing. Not average.

Who we still have to face: ranked by OBA
1) Garcia/UCLA... 5-1... 2.37... .187 BAA
3) BeckB/Furd... 6-0... 1.42... .201 BAA
5) Bubic/Furd... 7-0... 2.25... .205 BAA
8) Bates/USC... 3-3... 3.67... .220 BAA
11)Pettway/UCLA...7-2... 2.92... .230 BAA
12) BeckT/Furd... 7-2...2.66... .231 BAA

Luke ranked #9... 11-1... 3.01... .225 BAA

The only "elite" pitcher that Oregon State got to was DeMers. As I said, I do not think that you can pin it on the weather, because Hardy threw a perfect 1.1 to finish the game. What you can say is that DeMers got hurt in the Illinois State series and had to sit out the Arizona series. So, DeMers was throwing more than three innings for the first time since playing Michigan State in Minneapolis more than three weeks prior. The Oregon State game was DeMers' worst start of the year.

Oregon State hit a combined .188 against Deason, Yovan, Marsh, and Hardy. The Beavers got to DeMers, but he was making his first real start in more than three weeks. Even if you add in DeMers, Oregon State still only hit .229 against the top five pitchers that they faced. In no way is that turning elite pitchers into average pitchers.

The "Killer B's" of Beck, Beck, and Bubic are really going to test the Beaver hitters.

Last Edit: May 11, 2018 13:44:53 GMT -8 by wilkyisdashiznit

Classic Matchup: Bubic v Heimlich

Post by chinmusic on May 10, 2018 16:37:49 GMT -8

Post by Tigardbeav on May 10, 2018 17:15:50 GMT -8

Post by giantkillers83 on May 10, 2018 17:19:39 GMT -8

Post by beaver1989 on May 10, 2018 18:40:57 GMT -8

Post by chinmusic on May 10, 2018 22:29:34 GMT -8

Post by mbabeav on May 11, 2018 9:16:27 GMT -8

Post by baseba1111 on May 11, 2018 10:38:57 GMT -8

Post by abureid on May 11, 2018 12:19:13 GMT -8

Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 11, 2018 12:20:44 GMT -8