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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 27, 2018 12:21:07 GMT -8
Oregon State was fourth in RPI to start Tuesday. However, with a win over RPI-poison Portland, Oregon's loss to RPI-poison Portland, and Washington's loss to even worse UTRGV, Oregon State currently sits in seventh place.
Oregon State probably cannot catch Florida, Stanford, and Texas Tech without a ton of help. The Beavers cannot catch anyone in front of them without help. Oregon State could pass Arkansas, Georgia, and Ole Miss with a sweep and a loss by each of those teams.
Following Oregon State is North Carolina, Auburn, NC State, and East Carolina. North Carolina and NC State play this weekend. The winner of that series will probably pass the Beavers even with an Oregon State sweep. In fact, if NC State wins the series two games to one, both North Carolina and NC State will likely pass Oregon State. Auburn finishes up a three-game series with Florida today and tomorrow. If the Tigers steal one, they likely pass the Beavers as well. East Carolina plays Houston this weekend. If East Carolina sweeps, they will likely pass Oregon State, as well, no matter what the Beavers do.
A loss probably drops Oregon State around seven spots. Two losses probably drops Oregon State around 12 spots. If Arizona State sweeps, Oregon State probably drops around 20 spots. The Beavers may be able to rebound somewhat with a midweek game against Oregon. However, next weekend is against Washington State and the Cougars' second-worst in the Pac-12 RPI. The final 12 games are make or break with regards to RPI.
Boyd's World has Oregon State in with a top 8 RPI with a 15-4 finish. Depending on who the losses are to, I could see the Beavers earning a National Seed with a 13-6 finish, but it is doubtful short of there without help. Oregon State probably hosts a regional with a 12-7 finish. I could see a regional host with a 10-9 finish, but that would probably be pushing it.
Generally speaking, Oregon is Oregon State's best friend, when it comes to RPI. Ducks' wins help more than any other team. Ohio State winning a majority of their games down the stretch helps. If Cal State Fullerton could sweep their final five series and lose to USC, that would help immensely. If Missouri State could go 10-3 or so down the stretch, that would also help. If Oregon could lose the two midweek games to Oregon State, sweep UC Irvine, and go 10-2 otherwise, that would help a lot. Nevada going 11-3 would help. Otherwise, teams winning that Oregon State plays or has already played generally helps. Their losses generally hurt.
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 27, 2018 12:31:48 GMT -8
We may have to win the Pac-12 outright to earn a top 8 seed.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 27, 2018 12:58:19 GMT -8
We may have to win the Pac-12 outright to earn a top 8 seed. I see the Pac-12 champion as a probable National Seed, unless Oregon State, Stanford, and UCLA all completely fall apart down the stretch. If that happens, I see the Pac-12 champion as a probable regional host. A series win against the Cardinal is a huge get in terms of jockeying for a National Seed or Regional Host. It is possible to see ways to a National Seed without a series win against Stanford, but it would be much more difficult. UCLA's schedule is very back-loaded. Four of the Bruins' five final series are on the road, including the finale against Oregon State. If the Bruins can manage all of the road games, their RPI could explode, because of the road game multiplier in the RPI calculation. UCLA also seems to be much more talented than their schedule would indicate. Outside of Arizona and Utah, no team has been more snake-bit than UCLA, when it comes to losing close ones. As an aside, no team in the Pac-12 has had a knack for winning close ones more than Oregon State. The Beavers are 30-6 but are very fortunate not to have 2-3 more losses. Hopefully, Oregon State does not look past Arizona State, Oregon, and Washington State. All three are quality opponents. Hopefully, the Beavers can take care of business over the next eight. That May 11th series against Stanford looms large in deciding how this season will ultimately play out. |
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Post by blueheron on Apr 27, 2018 18:00:41 GMT -8
Generally speaking, Oregon is Oregon State's best friend, when it comes to RPI. Ducks' wins help more than any other team. Then.....Go Ducks! |
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Post by spudbeaver on Apr 27, 2018 19:39:36 GMT -8
Generally speaking, Oregon is Oregon State's best friend, when it comes to RPI. Ducks' wins help more than any other team. Then.....Go Ducks! Never ever. Ever. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Apr 27, 2018 19:39:46 GMT -8
Ever.
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 27, 2018 20:02:58 GMT -8
E-V-E-R
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 27, 2018 21:33:16 GMT -8
Oregon State was fourth in RPI to start Tuesday. However, with a win over RPI-poison Portland, Oregon's loss to RPI-poison Portland, and Washington's loss to even worse UTRGV, Oregon State currently sits in seventh place. Oregon State probably cannot catch Florida, Stanford, and Texas Tech without a ton of help. The Beavers cannot catch anyone in front of them without help. Oregon State could pass Arkansas, Georgia, and Ole Miss with a sweep and a loss by each of those teams. Following Oregon State is North Carolina, Auburn, NC State, and East Carolina. North Carolina and NC State play this weekend. The winner of that series will probably pass the Beavers even with an Oregon State sweep. In fact, if NC State wins the series two games to one, both North Carolina and NC State will likely pass Oregon State. Auburn finishes up a three-game series with Florida today and tomorrow. If the Tigers steal one, they likely pass the Beavers as well. East Carolina plays Houston this weekend. If East Carolina sweeps, they will likely pass Oregon State, as well, no matter what the Beavers do. A loss probably drops Oregon State around seven spots. Two losses probably drops Oregon State around 12 spots. If Arizona State sweeps, Oregon State probably drops around 20 spots. The Beavers may be able to rebound somewhat with a midweek game against Oregon. However, next weekend is against Washington State and the Cougars' second-worst in the Pac-12 RPI. The final 12 games are make or break with regards to RPI. Boyd's World has Oregon State in with a top 8 RPI with a 15-4 finish. Depending on who the losses are to, I could see the Beavers earning a National Seed with a 13-6 finish, but it is doubtful short of there without help. Oregon State probably hosts a regional with a 12-7 finish. I could see a regional host with a 10-9 finish, but that would probably be pushing it. Generally speaking, Oregon is Oregon State's best friend, when it comes to RPI. Ducks' wins help more than any other team. Ohio State winning a majority of their games down the stretch helps. If Cal State Fullerton could sweep their final five series and lose to USC, that would help immensely. If Missouri State could go 10-3 or so down the stretch, that would also help. If Oregon could lose the two midweek games to Oregon State, sweep UC Irvine, and go 10-2 otherwise, that would help a lot. Nevada going 11-3 would help. Otherwise, teams winning that Oregon State plays or has already played generally helps. Their losses generally hurt. Friday was a great day to Beaver but a terrible day to be a Beaver opponent (1/2 of RPI). New Mexico, Gonzaga, Cal Poly, Ohio State, Portland, California, Washington, Missouri State, and Oregon each lost. Only Cal State Fullerton won. Even though they lost, Cal Poly's loss helps in the long run. UCLA jumped to 25th in RPI. Additionally, Stanford's win over California helped the Cardinal close on the Gators for the top spot in RPI. With a Stanford win and Florida loss, the Cardinal probably pass the Gators tomorrow. North Carolina defeated NC State 6-5 and passed Oregon State into sixth. The Heels probably stay ahead of the Beavers this weekend, no matter the results. Auburn defeated Florida 11-5 and passed Oregon State into seventh. The Tigers probably stay ahead of the Beavers this weekend, no matter the results. Oregon State defeated Arizona State 6-2 and dropped a spot into eighth. Ole Miss lost to LSU and fell into ninth. Because of the poor showing by the Beavers' opponents, the Rebels look like they will pop back into eighth, if they can rebound against the Tigers tomorrow, regardless of what Oregon State does. Florida State is in 10th and Connecticut is in 11th. However, neither can probably pass Oregon State, absent a Beaver loss or another disastrous showing by Oregon State's opponents. NC State is in 12th. The Wolfpack will probably pass the Beavers, if NC State can win the series against North Carolina. Because of how disastrously bad Oregon State's opponents performed on Friday, Texas A&M can now pass the Beavers with two wins, regardless of what Oregon State does. The Beavers probably drop around five spots with a loss and 11 spots with two losses. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 27, 2018 21:41:00 GMT -8
I can't wait for Oregon State to play in the Oxford Super Regional, but, hey, at least Oregon lost to Portland twice, amiright? RPI and the Committee are already stacked against the Beavers. But why not join in the chorus of SEC fans and cheer on the deck slanting even more against Oregon State? Let's cheer on Portland with one big, "Ooooooooooo............pig sooie!" |
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Post by baseba1111 on Apr 27, 2018 21:58:32 GMT -8
I can't wait for Oregon State to play in the Oxford Super Regional, but, hey, at least Oregon lost to Portland twice, amiright? RPI and the Committee are already stacked against the Beavers. But why not join in the chorus of SEC fans and cheer on the deck slanting even more against Oregon State? Let's cheer on Portland with one big, "Ooooooooooo............pig sooie!" But, come one... we all know none of that matters. It's all on Meggs' shoulders! 😉 |
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Post by spudbeaver on Apr 28, 2018 8:58:01 GMT -8
I can't wait for Oregon State to play in the Oxford Super Regional, but, hey, at least Oregon lost to Portland twice, amiright? RPI and the Committee are already stacked against the Beavers. But why not join in the chorus of SEC fans and cheer on the deck slanting even more against Oregon State? Let's cheer on Portland with one big, "Ooooooooooo............pig sooie!" But, come one... we all know none of that matters. It's all on Meggs' shoulders! 😉 Point taken, but that’s apples and oranges. |
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Post by ricke71 on Apr 28, 2018 9:17:03 GMT -8
Does the equation: *uck Win = good; Beav Loss = bad...mean that the most favorable result for May 1 and May 8 would be rainouts that are NOT made up - ever?
Genuinely curious about this (I don’t have a degree in RPI as some of you clearly possess).
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 28, 2018 21:56:49 GMT -8
Does the equation: *uck Win = good; Beav Loss = bad...mean that the most favorable result for May 1 and May 8 would be rainouts that are NOT made up - ever? Genuinely curious about this (I don’t have a degree in RPI as some of you clearly possess). It depends on what Oregon does. However, assuming the Ducks can maintain an RPI that is better than let's say 90, the most favorable result would be two wins. Oregon State would get the 30% road multiplier. If Oregon's RPI stays about where it is, two Beaver road wins against the Ducks actually help more than the home sweep. And even a split of the two midweek games would be worth more than not playing at all. However, if Oregon's RPI drifts into let's say the 130s, rainouts are probably the best result. Oregon State's three games against Arizona State actually hurt the Beavers whether Oregon State wins or loses. The win yesterday cost the Beavers a spot. The loss today appears like it will cost Oregon State around three spots. A second loss would probably drop the Beavers another seven spots. Whereas a win does not really help that much. If the Beavers keep winning series and at least splitting the midweek games, they should earn a National Seed. However, hypothetically, if the season ended on Monday and Oregon State loses this series to Arizona State, there is a very strong argument that the Beavers should not even host. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 28, 2018 22:05:00 GMT -8
OSU controls its own destiny with home series against both teams 1/2 game ahead of them (UCLA and Stanford). Sweep 'em both. I'm not gonna lose any sleep about what opponents (don't) do. That's absolutely pointless. FTd! UCLA started the day 2 games up on Oregon State. Stanford started 1 1/2 games up on Oregon State. With the Cardinal's win over the Bears and the Beavers' loss, both Stanford and UCLA are now 2 1/2 games up. Washington is 1/2 game back of Oregon State. The Beavers do control their own destiny but must win out in order to maintain control of their own destiny. |
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Post by ricke71 on Apr 29, 2018 6:40:59 GMT -8
OSU controls its own destiny with home series against both teams 1/2 game ahead of them (UCLA and Stanford). Sweep 'em both. I'm not gonna lose any sleep about what opponents (don't) do. That's absolutely pointless. FTd! It’s pretty exciting that the Beavs get two late season series at home against the only 2 other highly ranked PAC 12 teams. In a sense the playoffs arrive a few weeks early this year. How those series unfold will determine if additional home games in regionals or SR are in the offing. While it’d be epic to sweep them both, going 6-0 against two top 10 teams in a span of 15 days is dreamland. |
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