No Duck Pilot Game??

With the win over Portland and Oregon's loss to Portland, Oregon State has fallen from fourth to seventh in RPI, passed by Arkansas, Georgia, and Ole Miss.  As much fun as it is to contemplate the SEC netting a fourth national seed at Oregon State's expense, I would much rather the Ducks take care of their business against the Pilots.

Oregon State is closer to #4 Arkansas than they are to #8 North Carolina.  However, the Beavers are closer to #21 South Florida than #3 Texas Tech, #29 Missouri than #2 Florida, and #33 West Virginia than #1 Stanford.  That is to say that having a team that comprises 9% of your opponents' rating (50% of RPI) and approximately 3% of your opponents' opponents' rating (25% of RPI) lose is a bad thing.  Every non-conference Oregon loss drops Oregon State's RPI more than 5%.  Having said that, as the Beavers played the Pilots twice, the loss probably only negatively impacts the RPI "only" about 3%.  Oregon's upcoming road games against Irvine next weekend are probably going to be worth the full 5%.

Oregon's wins help Oregon State more than any other team not named Oregon State, especially non-conference wins.  Unlike football, where there is no RPI and basketball, when the conference Tournament can make teams other than Oregon the most important team to RPI, baseball is a wholly different beast that really punishes teams for rival opponent's losses.  Oregon State fans may be rooting for Oregon losses, but most of the SEC is cheering exactly the same way.

Oregon State needs to go 15-4 down the stretch to maintain that top 8 RPI.  I mean, I love road Super Regionals just as much as the next guy, but a Corvallis Super Regional has such a nice ring to it.