2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,837 
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Mar 4, 2018 10:22:37 GMT -8
Charley Creme now has us in Columbus, as a 6 seed, setting up a potential OSU v OSU matchup...... (Does Charley ever track how accurate his prognostications were? Go Beavers!
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Post by bostonbeaver on Mar 6, 2018 0:23:30 GMT -8
I have a screen shot from Charley Creme right before the selection last year. He had Beavers as a 2 seed, and they were, in fact a 2 seed. But you can see here that they were ranked 8th at the time, so a 2 seed isn't too controversial. They had, depending on which RPI website you looked at, a 4 or 5 RPI, so I think the only question was whether there was a chance of a 1 seed. OSU has an RPI at 42 right now and an AP ranking of 13. The AP ranking would say a 4 seed, the RPI would say an 11 seed. So a 6 seed is biased closer to the AP ranking, but clearly Charley believes the selection committee will knock us down a few notches. I suppose strength of schedule is a tough thing to predict ahead of a season. If a team not paying much attention had looked at UW's record last season and decided to schedule a game with them this year to get a boost to strength of schedule, they would certainly have been disappointed. So, I haven't gone back to figure it out, but I wonder if some of our pre-conference teams (Savannah State? NC Central?) had bad years compared to previous years. |
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2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,837
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Mar 6, 2018 8:18:26 GMT -8
I have a screen shot from Charley Creme right before the selection last year. He had Beavers as a 2 seed, and they were, in fact a 2 seed. But you can see here that they were ranked 8th at the time, so a 2 seed isn't too controversial. They had, depending on which RPI website you looked at, a 4 or 5 RPI, so I think the only question was whether there was a chance of a 1 seed. OSU has an RPI at 42 right now and an AP ranking of 13. The AP ranking would say a 4 seed, the RPI would say an 11 seed. So a 6 seed is biased closer to the AP ranking, but clearly Charley believes the selection committee will knock us down a few notches. I suppose strength of schedule is a tough thing to predict ahead of a season. If a team not paying much attention had looked at UW's record last season and decided to schedule a game with them this year to get a boost to strength of schedule, they would certainly have been disappointed. So, I haven't gone back to figure it out, but I wonder if some of our pre-conference teams (Savannah State? NC Central?) had bad years compared to previous years. Some RPIs: Savannah State = 340 Utah Valley = 321 NC Central = 317 Arizona (x2) = 277 Good thing we play in the Pac-12. And we have some top-10 victories, and no "bad" losses......Also, I think we have gotten the benefit of emerging as a very successful program in the last 3+ years in order to enjoy the lofty ranking we do...... Go Beavers! |
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Post by bostonbeaver on Mar 6, 2018 11:29:17 GMT -8
I have a screen shot from Charley Creme right before the selection last year. He had Beavers as a 2 seed, and they were, in fact a 2 seed. But you can see here that they were ranked 8th at the time, so a 2 seed isn't too controversial. They had, depending on which RPI website you looked at, a 4 or 5 RPI, so I think the only question was whether there was a chance of a 1 seed. OSU has an RPI at 42 right now and an AP ranking of 13. The AP ranking would say a 4 seed, the RPI would say an 11 seed. So a 6 seed is biased closer to the AP ranking, but clearly Charley believes the selection committee will knock us down a few notches. I suppose strength of schedule is a tough thing to predict ahead of a season. If a team not paying much attention had looked at UW's record last season and decided to schedule a game with them this year to get a boost to strength of schedule, they would certainly have been disappointed. So, I haven't gone back to figure it out, but I wonder if some of our pre-conference teams (Savannah State? NC Central?) had bad years compared to previous years. Some RPIs: Savannah State = 340 Utah Valley = 321 NC Central = 317 Arizona (x2) = 277 Good thing we play in the Pac-12. And we have some top-10 victories, and no "bad" losses......Also, I think we have gotten the benefit of emerging as a very successful program in the last 3+ years in order to enjoy the lofty ranking we do...... Go Beavers! I agree that we may be getting a bit of the benefit of the doubt in our ranking, either from recent history of from being in Pac-12. I had seen the '17-'18 RPI numbers for our pre-conference opponents on the "Real Time RPI" website. I was wondering what the RPI was for some of those teams last year. I can see here the RPI for the top 50 teams at the end of 2016-2017 season, which shows OSU at 4 and UW at 10. This year UW is at 201, so that may have been a surprise to someone who didn't recognize their lack of depth after Plum and Osahor. What I don't know is whether Savannah State or Utah Valley had RPIs <150 last year, and OSU scheduled them thinking they might be decent pre-conference warm up teams. Or if they've been long-term low-RPI team, and maybe our schedule had a few too many of them. Winning more games would have solved the RPI problem (I'm still amazed at how long OSU led Notre Dame), and I recognize that scheduling is really challenging. Too easy of a pre-conference schedule and you have the OSU problem of poor RPI. Too hard of a pre-conference schedule and you have the Stanford problem of a poor record (which presumably was tough on team morale). But it is interesting seeing the importance of RPI in how teams are seeded in the tournament, and how that affects the likelihood of making it to the sweet 16. |
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