Post by bennyskid on Jan 29, 2018 11:14:14 GMT -8
Massey has probably the best computer ranking going. They have UO #6, UCLA #8, OSU #16, Stanford #20, ASU #23, USC #29, Cal #31, Utah #46
www.masseyratings.com/cbw/11590/ratings
One thing that is fun with the Massey is their "simulate season" trick. It does a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season. Right now it has us averaging a 5.76 - 2.24 record, with a 7% chance of closing out 8-0 and a 30% chance of closing out 7-1. The computer expects the Ducks to lose 1.1 more games, UCLA 1.9, and Stanford 2.8.
My guess is that we need to finish at least 7-1 and at least tied with UCLA to get a hosting seed. So we aren't in bad shape. That last game in Tempe could be huge.
www.masseyratings.com/cbw/11590/ratings
One thing that is fun with the Massey is their "simulate season" trick. It does a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season. Right now it has us averaging a 5.76 - 2.24 record, with a 7% chance of closing out 8-0 and a 30% chance of closing out 7-1. The computer expects the Ducks to lose 1.1 more games, UCLA 1.9, and Stanford 2.8.
My guess is that we need to finish at least 7-1 and at least tied with UCLA to get a hosting seed. So we aren't in bad shape. That last game in Tempe could be huge.