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Post by RenoBeaver on Nov 20, 2017 13:10:45 GMT -8
You do realize all I ever claimed was they had an "outside shot" right? WSU has no shot as an at large, UW has an "outside shot" That is all I ever claimed. You have done NOTHING to refute that claim. They needed to beat utah to maintain that "outside shot" BTW, I think you overestimate the idea of the committee following guidelines, name recognition has far more value than any criteria they may claim to use. Its why Ohio State is still considered alive with 2 losses. And its why USC got the Rose Bowl bid over Colorado last year. UW has more name recognition than TCU so they absolutely will jump TCU (as an example). If they win the Apple Cup they will leap frog both Michigan State, Washington State, and Mississippi State minimum. They have 2 weeks to move up 6 spots, that is hardly unheard of. Either way, unlikely or likely UW is the only school with any chance to make such a move and had they lost to Utah that would have been gone. Again, "outside shot" Props to youngorst for thinking through this. The Big Six Bowls are a big deal. Each conference that gets a team in the playoff earns the conference $6 million and each conference that gets a team in a different Big Six Bowl earns the conference $4 million. (The Rose, Orange, and Sugar are different, but the Rose and Sugar are playoff bowls this year.) That means that Oregon State basically earns $500,000.00 for a Pac-12 team making the playoff and $333,333.33 for a Pac-12 team making a different Big Six Bowl game. That is no small amount of money, especially this year, as the conference can expect a lower paycheck, because the Rose is a playoff bowl. (The Rose pays the Pac-12 $40 million in years it does not host a playoff game.) First, what probably happens? Clemson beats South Carolina, Miami beat Pittsburgh, and Clemson beats Miami to go 12-1. Miami finishes 11-1. Virginia Tech probably finishes 9-3 with a win over Virginia. All other ACC teams finish with at least four losses. Ohio State beats Michigan, Wisconsin beats Minnesota, and Ohio State beats Wisconsin to go 11-2. Wisconsin finishes 12-1. Penn State probably finishes 10-2 with a win over Maryland. Northwestern probably finishes 9-3 with a win over Illinois. Michigan State probably finishes 9-3 with a win over Rutgers. All other Big Ten teams finish with four or more losses. Everything else is messier. Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia beats Georgia Tech. Alabama has to travel to Atlanta to play Georgia, a 90 minute drive from Athens. Alabama is better than Georgia, but the Bulldogs have been a tough out in Atlanta. Georgia famously upset LSU in 2005. 2012 Alabama only managed to beat Georgia 32-28 in Atlanta in 2012 en route to a national championship. Alabama is 13-0 with a win, 12-1 with a loss. Georgia finishes 12-1 with a win and 11-2 with a loss. Auburn sits at 9-3. Mississippi State and LSU are also likely 9-3 but are probably lower on the totem poll than Auburn. Oklahoma and TCU each probably win next weekend, but, if that happens, Oklahoma has to travel to Arlington in what will basically a home game for the Horned Frogs, and TCU will have an extra day of rest after the Baylor game. Oklahoma is better than TCU, but the Horned Frogs will have a lot going for them. Oklahoma would be 12-1 with a win, 11-2 with a loss. TCU would be 11-2 with a win, 10-3 with a loss. The only other team in the Big 12 who would have fewer than four losses is Oklahoma State, who will likely beat Kansas to go 9-3. Central Florida is the best Group of Five team at 10-0. Central Florida welcomes 9-1 South Florida to Orlando this weekend with a ticket to the American Athletic Conference Championship on the line. If Central Florida wins, they would host Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. If Memphis and South Florida win, Memphis would host South Florida in Memphis. If South Florida wins and East Carolina upsets Memphis, South Florida would host. Central Florida likely wins finish 12-0. Memphis will probably finish 10-2. South Florida will probably finish 9-2. Every other team in the American Athletic Conference will probably finish with at least four losses. The only other team with Big Six Bowl aspirations is Notre Dame. The Irish finish 10-2 with a win and 9-3 with a loss. I personally think that Stanford beats Notre Dame. I personally think that Washington wins to finish 10-2. Stanford goes to the Pac-12 Championship Game, which is basically a home game, against USC, who officially has a bye against Stanford. A USC win puts the Trojans at 11-2, a loss 10-3. A Stanford win puts the Cardinal at 10-3, a loss 9-4. It is possible for a Pac-12 team to make the playoff, but it would probably take at least one true upset. Of more note, if Washington wins, they go 10-2. Clemson, Miami, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Central Florida, and the Pac-12 champion probably finish with better records, but that is still 11th. Even if Notre Dame beats Stanford or TCU wins out, that is still 12th. The Big Six will invite exactly 12 teams. Washington at 12th likely gets an at large bid. Oregon State makes several hundred thousand dollars more. There are a lot of variables at this point, but I still think a 10-2 Pac-12 team probably gets a nod. A 10-3 Pac-12 team also might get a bid. Michigan State and Mississippi State are ranked ahead of UW with 3 losses. The people who pick these things already don't think much of Washington, and I don't think beating WSU will impress them at all.
If Auburn loses to Alabama, they aren't dropping below Washington, way harder schedule, better wins, all losses against top 20 teams (2 top 5) and wins against a top 5 team and top 20 team. If Ohio State loses, maybe, but again, 2 of their losses are to top 5 teams, with two wins over top 10 and top 20 teams. TCU is the team I see dropping below Washington, because their best win is OK State. Ranked higher than WSU but probably a similar team.
I think the best case scenario for Washington is to hope Stanford wins out, at least then one of their losses is against a conference champion, and Stanford would have a few real nice wins over ND and USC, and that may be enough for Washington to leapfrog those teams, TCU, and maybe get in the mix for a top 12 spot. But Auburn ain't falling out, and I don't think Ohio State does either if they lose to Wisky. Certainly Wisky ain't dropping out now if they lose to Ohio State.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2017 16:50:31 GMT -8
Props to youngorst for thinking through this. The Big Six Bowls are a big deal. Each conference that gets a team in the playoff earns the conference $6 million and each conference that gets a team in a different Big Six Bowl earns the conference $4 million. (The Rose, Orange, and Sugar are different, but the Rose and Sugar are playoff bowls this year.) That means that Oregon State basically earns $500,000.00 for a Pac-12 team making the playoff and $333,333.33 for a Pac-12 team making a different Big Six Bowl game. That is no small amount of money, especially this year, as the conference can expect a lower paycheck, because the Rose is a playoff bowl. (The Rose pays the Pac-12 $40 million in years it does not host a playoff game.) First, what probably happens? Clemson beats South Carolina, Miami beat Pittsburgh, and Clemson beats Miami to go 12-1. Miami finishes 11-1. Virginia Tech probably finishes 9-3 with a win over Virginia. All other ACC teams finish with at least four losses. Ohio State beats Michigan, Wisconsin beats Minnesota, and Ohio State beats Wisconsin to go 11-2. Wisconsin finishes 12-1. Penn State probably finishes 10-2 with a win over Maryland. Northwestern probably finishes 9-3 with a win over Illinois. Michigan State probably finishes 9-3 with a win over Rutgers. All other Big Ten teams finish with four or more losses. Everything else is messier. Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia beats Georgia Tech. Alabama has to travel to Atlanta to play Georgia, a 90 minute drive from Athens. Alabama is better than Georgia, but the Bulldogs have been a tough out in Atlanta. Georgia famously upset LSU in 2005. 2012 Alabama only managed to beat Georgia 32-28 in Atlanta in 2012 en route to a national championship. Alabama is 13-0 with a win, 12-1 with a loss. Georgia finishes 12-1 with a win and 11-2 with a loss. Auburn sits at 9-3. Mississippi State and LSU are also likely 9-3 but are probably lower on the totem poll than Auburn. Oklahoma and TCU each probably win next weekend, but, if that happens, Oklahoma has to travel to Arlington in what will basically a home game for the Horned Frogs, and TCU will have an extra day of rest after the Baylor game. Oklahoma is better than TCU, but the Horned Frogs will have a lot going for them. Oklahoma would be 12-1 with a win, 11-2 with a loss. TCU would be 11-2 with a win, 10-3 with a loss. The only other team in the Big 12 who would have fewer than four losses is Oklahoma State, who will likely beat Kansas to go 9-3. Central Florida is the best Group of Five team at 10-0. Central Florida welcomes 9-1 South Florida to Orlando this weekend with a ticket to the American Athletic Conference Championship on the line. If Central Florida wins, they would host Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. If Memphis and South Florida win, Memphis would host South Florida in Memphis. If South Florida wins and East Carolina upsets Memphis, South Florida would host. Central Florida likely wins finish 12-0. Memphis will probably finish 10-2. South Florida will probably finish 9-2. Every other team in the American Athletic Conference will probably finish with at least four losses. The only other team with Big Six Bowl aspirations is Notre Dame. The Irish finish 10-2 with a win and 9-3 with a loss. I personally think that Stanford beats Notre Dame. I personally think that Washington wins to finish 10-2. Stanford goes to the Pac-12 Championship Game, which is basically a home game, against USC, who officially has a bye against Stanford. A USC win puts the Trojans at 11-2, a loss 10-3. A Stanford win puts the Cardinal at 10-3, a loss 9-4. It is possible for a Pac-12 team to make the playoff, but it would probably take at least one true upset. Of more note, if Washington wins, they go 10-2. Clemson, Miami, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Central Florida, and the Pac-12 champion probably finish with better records, but that is still 11th. Even if Notre Dame beats Stanford or TCU wins out, that is still 12th. The Big Six will invite exactly 12 teams. Washington at 12th likely gets an at large bid. Oregon State makes several hundred thousand dollars more. There are a lot of variables at this point, but I still think a 10-2 Pac-12 team probably gets a nod. A 10-3 Pac-12 team also might get a bid. Michigan State and Mississippi State are ranked ahead of UW with 3 losses. The people who pick these things already don't think much of Washington, and I don't think beating WSU will impress them at all.
If Auburn loses to Alabama, they aren't dropping below Washington, way harder schedule, better wins, all losses against top 20 teams (2 top 5) and wins against a top 5 team and top 20 team. If Ohio State loses, maybe, but again, 2 of their losses are to top 5 teams, with two wins over top 10 and top 20 teams. TCU is the team I see dropping below Washington, because their best win is OK State. Ranked higher than WSU but probably a similar team.
I think the best case scenario for Washington is to hope Stanford wins out, at least then one of their losses is against a conference champion, and Stanford would have a few real nice wins over ND and USC, and that may be enough for Washington to leapfrog those teams, TCU, and maybe get in the mix for a top 12 spot. But Auburn ain't falling out, and I don't think Ohio State does either if they lose to Wisky. Certainly Wisky ain't dropping out now if they lose to Ohio State.
UW up to 13, only 2 spots from a New Years Six bid. If Oklahoma beats TCU; UW is in. |
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Post by RenoBeaver on Nov 28, 2017 21:56:05 GMT -8
Michigan State and Mississippi State are ranked ahead of UW with 3 losses. The people who pick these things already don't think much of Washington, and I don't think beating WSU will impress them at all.
If Auburn loses to Alabama, they aren't dropping below Washington, way harder schedule, better wins, all losses against top 20 teams (2 top 5) and wins against a top 5 team and top 20 team. If Ohio State loses, maybe, but again, 2 of their losses are to top 5 teams, with two wins over top 10 and top 20 teams. TCU is the team I see dropping below Washington, because their best win is OK State. Ranked higher than WSU but probably a similar team.
I think the best case scenario for Washington is to hope Stanford wins out, at least then one of their losses is against a conference champion, and Stanford would have a few real nice wins over ND and USC, and that may be enough for Washington to leapfrog those teams, TCU, and maybe get in the mix for a top 12 spot. But Auburn ain't falling out, and I don't think Ohio State does either if they lose to Wisky. Certainly Wisky ain't dropping out now if they lose to Ohio State.
UW up to 13, only 2 spots from a New Years Six bid. If Oklahoma beats TCU; UW is in. You think they get in because why, they would be ranked in the top 12? You might want to ask Colorado about your logic, since they finished ranked 10th last year in the final rankings before the bowl games and weren't a NY6 participant. Oklahoma State also finished in the top 12. Both were skipped over for #14 Auburn and #15 Western Michigan.
Going back to 2015, Oklahoma State was ranked 16th and got in, Houston too at 18. Top 12 teams North Carolina and TCU were passed over.
I think you could make a good argument Washington deserves to be in over TCU if they lose. TCU has 3 losses, although 2 are to a top 2 team, their best win is OK St, which is now ranked behind WSU. Washington would get crushed by all of the top 4 to 6 teams if they played anyone of that caliber this year. Also, the only slot Washington would be considered for is the Cotton Bowl, and, you know, the T in TCU stands for...Just about every prognosticator from Palm to USA Today to SI to SBNation has TCU losing to Oklahoma and still playing in the Cotton Bowl and/or NY6.
Which is bulls%#t because ND has quality wins over 24 NC State, 10 USC, and #16 Michigan State. It's losses are to two top 10 teams and all three in the top 20. ND should be in before Washington and TCU.
So if your point is Washington deserves to play over TCU...I agree with you. But that's not how this works. If it does work out that way, then there is justice in college football. Not to mention if TCU gets blown out by OK, they really have no biz playing in the NY6, especially since Washington looked dominant against WSU (despite the fact they struggled mightily and almost choked at home vs Utah the week before, and did lose the week before that). Interestingly, Washington is rooting hard this week for Fresno State.
BTW I think your logic is somewhat amiss due to the tie-in to the Rose Bowl. The highest ranked team from the Pac 12 is guaranteed a slot there if the Pac 12 champ is in the playoffs and the Rose Bowl isn't hosting them. Unfortunately it is this year.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 28, 2017 22:06:57 GMT -8
Michigan State and Mississippi State are ranked ahead of UW with 3 losses. The people who pick these things already don't think much of Washington, and I don't think beating WSU will impress them at all.
If Auburn loses to Alabama, they aren't dropping below Washington, way harder schedule, better wins, all losses against top 20 teams (2 top 5) and wins against a top 5 team and top 20 team. If Ohio State loses, maybe, but again, 2 of their losses are to top 5 teams, with two wins over top 10 and top 20 teams. TCU is the team I see dropping below Washington, because their best win is OK State. Ranked higher than WSU but probably a similar team.
I think the best case scenario for Washington is to hope Stanford wins out, at least then one of their losses is against a conference champion, and Stanford would have a few real nice wins over ND and USC, and that may be enough for Washington to leapfrog those teams, TCU, and maybe get in the mix for a top 12 spot. But Auburn ain't falling out, and I don't think Ohio State does either if they lose to Wisky. Certainly Wisky ain't dropping out now if they lose to Ohio State.
UW up to 13, only 2 spots from a New Years Six bid. If Oklahoma beats TCU; UW is in. A lopsided Oklahoma win would help. If Wisconsin destroys Ohio State, that might also put Washington in. That seems much less likely, though. |
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Post by RenoBeaver on Nov 28, 2017 22:14:14 GMT -8
UW up to 13, only 2 spots from a New Years Six bid. If Oklahoma beats TCU; UW is in. A lopsided Oklahoma win would help. If Wisconsin destroys Ohio State, that might also put Washington in. That seems much less likely, though. If both those things happen, I still think it's a real long shot, simply for the fact the game is in Texas. If it was the Fiesta Bowl it would be a no brainer. But TCU, Ohio State, and ND are far more desirable teams for the Cotton Bowl, not that that's supposed to have anything to do with it wink wink. But again, ask Colorado how that worked out. They sure weren't going to ship Colorado out to Miami or New Orleans. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 28, 2017 22:47:20 GMT -8
UW up to 13, only 2 spots from a New Years Six bid. If Oklahoma beats TCU; UW is in. You think they get in because why, they would be ranked in the top 12? You might want to ask Colorado about your logic, since they finished ranked 10th last year in the final rankings before the bowl games and weren't a NY6 participant. Oklahoma State also finished in the top 12. Both were skipped over for #14 Auburn and #15 Western Michigan.
Going back to 2015, Oklahoma State was ranked 16th and got in, Houston too at 18. Top 12 teams North Carolina and TCU were passed over.
I think you could make a good argument Washington deserves to be in over TCU if they lose. TCU has 3 losses, although 2 are to a top 2 team, their best win is OK St, which is now ranked behind WSU. Washington would get it's but wiped repeatedly by all of the top 4 to 6 teams if they played anyone of that caliber this year. Also, the only slot Washington would be considered for is the Cotton Bowl, and, you know, the T in TCU stands for...Just about every prognosticator from Palm to USA Today to SI to SBNation has TCU losing to Oklahoma and still playing in the Cotton Bowl and/or NY6.
Which is bulls%#t because ND has quality wins over 24 NC State, 10 USC, and #16 Michigan State. It's losses are to two top 10 teams and all three in the top 20. ND should be in before Washington and TCU.
So if your point is Washington deserves to play over TCU...I agree with you. But that's not how this works. If it does work out that way, then there is justice in college football. Not to mention if TCU gets blown out by OK, they really have no biz playing in the NY6, especially since Washington looked dominant against WSU (despite the fact they struggled mightily and almost choked at home vs Utah the week before, and did lose the week before that).
BTW I think your logic is somewhat amiss due to the tie-in to the Rose Bowl. The highest ranked team from the Pac 12 is guaranteed a slot there if the Pac 12 champ is in the playoffs and the Rose Bowl isn't hosting them. Unfortunately it is this year. Washington would be in, if they are ranked in the top 11 this year. Last year, there were four more tie-ins among the New York Six. The Rose Bowl got the highest ranked Big Ten (Penn State) and Pac-12 (USC) team. The Sugar Bowl got the highest ranked Big 12 (Oklahoma) and SEC (Auburn) teams. The Orange got the highest ranked ACC (Florida State) and second-highest ranked Big Ten (Michigan) team. The only at large was Wisconsin who played the highest ranked Group of Five team (Western Michigan). If this year's bowl schedule was in use last year (probably): Cotton: Colorado v. Oklahoma
Fiesta: USC v. Michigan
Orange: Florida State v. Penn State
Peach: Western Michigan v. Wisconsin
Rose: Ohio State v. Clemson
Sugar: Washington v. Alabama
Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl.
If 2015's bowl schedule was in use last year (probably):
Peach: Western Michigan v. Wisconsin
Orange: Ohio State v. Clemson
Cotton: Washington v. Alabama
Fiesta: Colorado v. Michigan
Rose: USC v. Penn State
Sugar: Auburn v. Oklahoma
Florida State goes to the Citrus Bowl.
Now, you can probably switch Michigan and Wisconsin, but I would assume that Western Michigan would be paired with Wisconsin. (That might be a dangerous assumption.) I could also see the committee flopping the playoff games to give the Big Ten the Citrus Bowl over Florida State. That would push the Seminoles down to the Champs Sports Bowl.
The point is that Colorado got unlucky. If the New Years' Six had been set up any different way, Colorado would have played in the Cotton or Fiesta. Instead the Buffaloes slid down to the Alamo Bowl. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2017 22:51:36 GMT -8
You think they get in because why, they would be ranked in the top 12? You might want to ask Colorado about your logic, since they finished ranked 10th last year in the final rankings before the bowl games and weren't a NY6 participant. Oklahoma State also finished in the top 12. Both were skipped over for #14 Auburn and #15 Western Michigan.
Going back to 2015, Oklahoma State was ranked 16th and got in, Houston too at 18. Top 12 teams North Carolina and TCU were passed over.
I think you could make a good argument Washington deserves to be in over TCU if they lose. TCU has 3 losses, although 2 are to a top 2 team, their best win is OK St, which is now ranked behind WSU. Washington would get it's but wiped repeatedly by all of the top 4 to 6 teams if they played anyone of that caliber this year. Also, the only slot Washington would be considered for is the Cotton Bowl, and, you know, the T in TCU stands for...Just about every prognosticator from Palm to USA Today to SI to SBNation has TCU losing to Oklahoma and still playing in the Cotton Bowl and/or NY6.
Which is bulls%#t because ND has quality wins over 24 NC State, 10 USC, and #16 Michigan State. It's losses are to two top 10 teams and all three in the top 20. ND should be in before Washington and TCU.
So if your point is Washington deserves to play over TCU...I agree with you. But that's not how this works. If it does work out that way, then there is justice in college football. Not to mention if TCU gets blown out by OK, they really have no biz playing in the NY6, especially since Washington looked dominant against WSU (despite the fact they struggled mightily and almost choked at home vs Utah the week before, and did lose the week before that).
BTW I think your logic is somewhat amiss due to the tie-in to the Rose Bowl. The highest ranked team from the Pac 12 is guaranteed a slot there if the Pac 12 champ is in the playoffs and the Rose Bowl isn't hosting them. Unfortunately it is this year. Washington would be in, if they are ranked in the top 11 this year. Last year, there were four more tie-ins among the New York Six. The Rose Bowl got the highest ranked Big Ten (Penn State) and Pac-12 (USC) team. The Sugar Bowl got the highest ranked Big 12 (Oklahoma) and SEC (Auburn) teams. The Orange got the highest ranked ACC (Florida State) and second-highest ranked Big Ten (Michigan) team. The only at large was Wisconsin who played the highest ranked Group of Five team (Western Michigan). If this year's bowl schedule was in use last year (probably): Cotton: Colorado v. Oklahoma
Fiesta: USC v. Michigan
Orange: Florida State v. Penn State
Peach: Western Michigan v. Wisconsin
Rose: Ohio State v. Clemson
Sugar: Washington v. Alabama
Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl.
If 2015's bowl schedule was in use last year (probably):
Peach: Western Michigan v. Wisconsin
Orange: Ohio State v. Clemson
Cotton: Washington v. Alabama
Fiesta: Colorado v. Michigan
Rose: USC v. Penn State
Sugar: Auburn v. Oklahoma
Florida State goes to the Citrus Bowl.
Now, you can probably switch Michigan and Wisconsin, but I would assume that Western Michigan would be paired with Wisconsin. (That might be a dangerous assumption.) I could also see the committee flopping the playoff games to give the Big Ten the Citrus Bowl over Florida State. That would push the Seminoles down to the Champs Sports Bowl.
The point is that Colorado got unlucky. If the New Years' Six had been set up any different way, Colorado would have played in the Cotton or Fiesta. Instead the Buffaloes slid down to the Alamo Bowl.Perfectly stated. If you understand how the tie ins work, each lower ranked team is easily explained and you can figure out where UW has to be to get the bid. And its top 11. The only way 11 won't be high enough is if both Miami and Clemson get into the playoff. In that case Virginia Tech (or maybe Notre Dame, I think the Orange Bowl can take them instead of an ACC team) would get an Orange Bowl bid and UW would need to be top 10 to get a bid. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 28, 2017 22:54:24 GMT -8
A lopsided Oklahoma win would help. If Wisconsin destroys Ohio State, that might also put Washington in. That seems much less likely, though. If both those things happen, I still think it's a real long shot, simply for the fact the game is in Texas. If it was the Fiesta Bowl it would be a no brainer. But TCU, Ohio State, and ND are far more desirable teams for the Cotton Bowl, not that that's supposed to have anything to do with it wink wink. But again, ask Colorado how that worked out. They sure weren't going to ship Colorado out to Miami or New Orleans. Notre Dame is not going to a New Years' Six game. Unless something weird happens, the top 11 teams are going to New Years' Six games. If Ohio State or TCU slips to 12, behind Washington, they slip to 12 and do not play in a New Years' Six game. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2017 23:01:11 GMT -8
If both those things happen, I still think it's a real long shot, simply for the fact the game is in Texas. If it was the Fiesta Bowl it would be a no brainer. But TCU, Ohio State, and ND are far more desirable teams for the Cotton Bowl, not that that's supposed to have anything to do with it wink wink. But again, ask Colorado how that worked out. They sure weren't going to ship Colorado out to Miami or New Orleans. Notre Dame is not going to a New Years' Six game. Unless something weird happens, the top 11 teams are going to New Years' Six games. If Ohio State or TCU slips to 12, behind Washington, they slip to 12 and do not play in a New Years' Six game. Yeah, as I said above. If the ACC gets 2 teams in the playoff that would mean UW would need to be top 10 instead of 11. But that seems unlikely to happen. The game location no longer matters. At large teams are taken in order of rank. They only go out of that order for tie in bids. Its possible the committee keeps TCU ahead of UW (at the request of the Cotton Bowl since its corrupt) but that is the only way they'd get in over UW. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 29, 2017 12:35:35 GMT -8
Notre Dame is not going to a New Years' Six game. Unless something weird happens, the top 11 teams are going to New Years' Six games. If Ohio State or TCU slips to 12, behind Washington, they slip to 12 and do not play in a New Years' Six game. Yeah, as I said above. If the ACC gets 2 teams in the playoff that would mean UW would need to be top 10 instead of 11. But that seems unlikely to happen. The game location no longer matters. At large teams are taken in order of rank. They only go out of that order for tie in bids. Its possible the committee keeps TCU ahead of UW (at the request of the Cotton Bowl since its corrupt) but that is the only way they'd get in over UW. But would the Cotton really want TCU after it just lost in Arlington? Maybe with the right opponent? Ohio State and Penn State are floating out there. Another thought that I had is that if Georgia torches Auburn (it would need to be on the order of at least three touchdowns), Washington could pass Auburn, as well. $4 million difference for the conference, if Washington qualifies for a spot. FPI: 7. Washington 11. TCU
Sagarin: 9. Washington
10. TCUSagarin's conference rankings: 1. ACC
2. Big Ten
3. SEC
4. Big 12
5. Pac-12
I think Washington is the better of the two teams. However, the committee may determine that TCU has played a more challenging schedule, which they have, and give the spot to the Horned Frogs. I am still hoping that the Committee punishes the Big 12 for only having 10 teams (and a hackneyed championship process) and gives the spot to Washington.
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