2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,837
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Jun 8, 2017 23:34:29 GMT -8
D1Baseball.com did a breakdown of the Corvallis Super Regional. I have to admit that I didn't realize that the Vandy pitching staff would likely be a story if they weren't up against our freakish ERA-stat staff and bullpen... "Vanderbilt might have the No. 1 overall pick in the draft in RHP Kyle Wright, plus a rock-solid strike-thrower with a 2.36 ERA in Friday starter Patrick Raby." Offense and defense was rated a push, but other areas had the Beavers with the edge. d1baseball.com/postseason/corvallis-super-regional-breakdown/I think a tight series awaits us! And we owe Vandy one for the way they knocked us out at their place not that long ago. I can't wait..... (I use Beaver sports as a way to forget about the ugliness in the world, but the last couple days have not aided me in that regard). Go Beavers!
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 9, 2017 9:18:30 GMT -8
Based on that D1 analysis - Beavs in 3, yes we will lose one, but we will win 2.
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 9, 2017 9:31:10 GMT -8
Here are the probabilities from the Warren Nolan website - OSU gets the best odds, Vandy does not rate nearly as high in that site's metrics (based on full season results) as it's current level of play suggests, though.
SUPER REGIONAL BREAKDOWN
Over the last six seasons, the road teams in Super Regionals have advanced to the College World Series 35% of the time (17 / 48), but note that in nine of those seventeen the road team was favored or the game was a toss-up. The good news for the underdogs is that eight have made it to the CWS in the last six years.
Vanderbilt (11.4%) Oregon State (88.6%) Oregon State 29-1 home record
Mississippi State (20.4%) LSU (79.6%) LSU swept Mississippi State on the road Missouri State (22.9%) TCU (77.1%) TCU 26-4 home record Davidson (24.2%) Texas A&M (75.8%) Cal State Fullerton (26.8%) Long Beach State (73.2%) Long Beach swept CSF at home and was 2-1 at CSF Wake Forest (28.2%) Florida (71.8%) Kentucky (29.5%) Louisville (70.5%) Louisville won against Kentucky at home and lost at Kentucky Sam Houston State (29.6%) Florida State (70.4%)
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 9, 2017 12:42:26 GMT -8
Another Warren Nolan Prediction
9:00 PM Resid Prediction ELO Prediction Resid ELO NCAA Super Regional - Game 1 - Corvallis, OR Score Spread Win Prob. Spread Win Prob. Vanderbilt (36-23-1) 0 2 +3.0 39% +5.5 21% Oregon State (52-4) 0 5 -3.0 61% -5.5 79%
So far this season, both predictors are close to 65% accurate, the goal is 70%
The ELO is originally ELO Chess, a way of ranking the top players in the world, adopted for use in this forum for baseball. As I do not wish to have the spirit of Beavermobile haunt me for the rest of the season, I will not start pasting equations and rationales for how and why this metric is seen as more accurate than other methods.
OSU's ELO is #1 at 1888.61 Vandy's is #26 at 1700.63
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