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Post by tamatrix on May 30, 2017 13:47:28 GMT -8
boydsworld.com/data/fieldprobs2017.htmlBeavs 99.2% probability of winning Regionals. Wow. (UNC at 89.6% is next closest); Nebraska holds 0.7% other 2 at 0%. Beavs 91.6% probability of winning Supers. Also wow. (UNC at 75.6% next closest) Beavs 52.3 probability of making finals. (UNC at 23.9% next) Beavs 37.1% probability of winning it all. (UNC at 10.1% next, LVille at 9.7%) Like it all of course, now let's do it!
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Post by beaverintheberg on May 30, 2017 14:27:20 GMT -8
37% seems too high to me. Once the playoffs start - just takes 1 or two hot pitchers to derail you.
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Post by baseba1111 on May 30, 2017 14:32:07 GMT -8
37% seems too high to me. Once the playoffs start - just takes 1 or two hot pitchers to derail you. Just a bunch generated #s based on the regular season. They have nothing else to predict now. It's kinda political "experts", never called out for how wrong they are! I can say, we might have the weakest regional I could have imagined! I'd say that getting out best be 100%. Lol |
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Post by bvrbeliever on May 30, 2017 14:55:24 GMT -8
Trump, Brexit...these numbers only make me nervous.
2014 is still fresh in my mind. Never would've dreamed we'd lose to Irvine in our home regional.
These numbers are really cool, but I'll be thrilled if we're still talking about an upcoming matchup this time next week.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 30, 2017 14:56:29 GMT -8
37% seems too high to me. Once the playoffs start - just takes 1 or two hot pitchers to derail you. Just a bunch generated #s based on the regular season. They have nothing else to predict now. It's kinda political "experts", never called out for how wrong they are! I can say, we might have the weakest regional I could have imagined! I'd say that getting out best be 100%. Lol You mean that President Hillary Clinton is not going to call Oregon State to congratulate the Beavers on advancing to Omaha? |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 30, 2017 15:00:33 GMT -8
Trump, Brexit...these numbers only make me nervous. 2015 is still fresh in my mind. Never would've dreamed we'd lose to Irvine in our home regional. These numbers are really cool, but I'll be thrilled if we're still talking about an upcoming matchup this time next week. Irvine was 2014. In 2015, all that really stood in the way of a Super Regional berth was Virginia Commonwealth, and Oregon State could not take care of business either. If Oregon State had gone to a Super Regional in 2015, the Beavers probably would have made the field in 2016. The last three years were not as entertaining as the three preceding years. |
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Post by bvrbeliever on May 30, 2017 15:04:55 GMT -8
Trump, Brexit...these numbers only make me nervous. 2015 is still fresh in my mind. Never would've dreamed we'd lose to Irvine in our home regional. These numbers are really cool, but I'll be thrilled if we're still talking about an upcoming matchup this time next week. Irvine was 2014. In 2015, all that really stood in the way of a Super Regional berth was Virginia Commonwealth, and Oregon State could not take care of business either. If Oregon State had gone to a Super Regional in 2015, the Beavers probably would have made the field in 2016. The last three years were not as entertaining as the three preceding years. Yeah just made the edit. Like I said, still all too fresh in my mind  |
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Post by sagebrush on May 30, 2017 18:24:22 GMT -8
Save #1 pitcher for Beavers. Hot pitcher can shut down an offense. Can't win if you can't score. I know, I know, take care of today, today. Take care of tomorrow, tomorrow. But, sometimes you have to take a chance.
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Post by eugenedave on May 30, 2017 22:41:25 GMT -8
ISR-based probabilities are pretty worthless, but I am not worried. This team has a date with destiny, and the grassy fields of TD Ameritrade await.
I know where I will be in three weeks: making my way to Omaha to watch our Beavers. Coastal Carolina, you're about to get your ring took!
OMAHA OR BUST!
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Post by thewizard on May 31, 2017 6:33:06 GMT -8
We are 49-4, don't change a DAM thing. Roll with what got us to this point in the season.
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Post by ag87 on May 31, 2017 19:32:09 GMT -8
boydsworld.com/data/fieldprobs2017.htmlBeavs 99.2% probability of winning Regionals. Wow. (UNC at 89.6% is next closest); Nebraska holds 0.7% other 2 at 0%. Beavs 91.6% probability of winning Supers. Also wow. (UNC at 75.6% next closest) Beavs 52.3 probability of making finals. (UNC at 23.9% next) Beavs 37.1% probability of winning it all. (UNC at 10.1% next, LVille at 9.7%) Like it all of course, now let's do it! Those numbers are absolutely crazy. Just looking at the regional, I don't think we have a 90% probability of winning it. In fact, as a gambler, I think I'd take the "OSU doesn't win the regional" bet at around +600. I'd take the "OSU wins regional" at somewhere around -250. |
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