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Post by beaverboilermaker on May 23, 2017 21:25:11 GMT -8
I will be at 2 or 3 of the ACU series, and obviously rooting for the Beavs to win and secure the #1 overall National Seed. I think the seed is important as it seems more clear that the Chapel Hill campus of UNC will be #2, and OSU wants to be on the opposite side of the bracket to only play them in the championship series. So looking at the final pre-tourney weekend of college baseball, I am trying to decide my rooting interests to best benefit OSU in the near and long term and interested in others' thoughts. References are to Boyd's World RPI and RPI needs reports. To anyone that wants to vehemently disagree, let me just say – “You’re right!” (unless you are trying to justify the zeroes or puppies getting into the tournament). • Stanford needs to win out in Pullman. It won’t put their RPI into the top 8 (currently #11), but d1Baseball.com has them projected to the final National Seed because of the normal recognition of the RPI bias against the west. Tree is all but guaranteed to host a regional, but it is important for them to be a national seed so OSU can avoid being paired with a Long Beach regional. • Cal State Fullerton hosts Long Beach in the biggest west coast series of the weekend. I’m rooting for Long Beach, as I think they have already locked up a regional host spot. They cannot get to a top 8 RPI, but with a sweep, the Dirtbags could move up to a high enough ranking that it would be difficult to justify pairing that regional with Corvallis. Also, Fullerton and their on-again, off-again pitching that scares me probably ends up in a Tucson or Palo Alto regional if the plan holds. • Ucla at zero is really important for the conference to get the Pac’s current 3rd-place team (and #4 RPI team at 52) into the tourney. Ucla just got crushed 12-4 at UC Irvine, but it shouldn’t hurt them much if they can win the road series in spite of the smell. RPI Needs says 3 wins gets them to Top 45 threshold, which would usually get a 3rd-place Pac team into a regional, and we do not want last season to become a precedent. RPI for zero (currently 78) leaves them out with only remaining games at home. • Arizona with a tough home series vs. Cal needs to win to stay top 16 (currently #15) and host a regional. If the Pac only gets 4 teams in, best we can hope for is to be called "top-heavy", and 2 national seeds with another regional host might make it less likely to have regionals paired with each other and a good chance to get more than 1 team to Omaha. Most of the conference tourneys seem to be unlikely to affect RPI very much for a top team that goes out early. OSU definitely doesn’t have to worry about bids stolen by lower-seed conference tourney champs (although Ucla might), so not worried much about those. |
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Post by baseba1111 on May 23, 2017 21:31:08 GMT -8
I will be at 2 or 3 of the ACU series, and obviously rooting for the Beavs to win and secure the #1 overall National Seed. I think the seed is important as it seems more clear that the Chapel Hill campus of UNC will be #2, and OSU wants to be on the opposite side of the bracket to only play them in the championship series. So looking at the final pre-tourney weekend of college baseball, I am trying to decide my rooting interests to best benefit OSU in the near and long term and interested in others' thoughts. References are to Boyd's World RPI and RPI needs reports. To anyone that wants to vehemently disagree, let me just say – “You’re right!” (unless you are trying to justify the zeroes or puppies getting into the tournament). • Stanford needs to win out in Pullman. It won’t put their RPI into the top 8 (currently #11), but d1Baseball.com has them projected to the final National Seed because of the normal recognition of the RPI bias against the west. Tree is all but guaranteed to host a regional, but it is important for them to be a national seed so OSU can avoid being paired with a Long Beach regional. • Cal State Fullerton hosts Long Beach in the biggest west coast series of the weekend. I’m rooting for Long Beach, as I think they have already locked up a regional host spot. They cannot get to a top 8 RPI, but with a sweep, the Dirtbags could move up to a high enough ranking that it would be difficult to justify pairing that regional with Corvallis. Also, Fullerton and their on-again, off-again pitching that scares me probably ends up in a Tucson or Palo Alto regional if the plan holds. • Ucla at zero is really important for the conference to get the Pac’s current 3rd-place team (and #4 RPI team at 52) into the tourney. Ucla just got crushed 12-4 at UC Irvine, but it shouldn’t hurt them much if they can win the road series in spite of the smell. RPI Needs says 3 wins gets them to Top 45 threshold, which would usually get a 3rd-place Pac team into a regional, and we do not want last season to become a precedent. RPI for zero (currently 78) leaves them out with only remaining games at home. • Arizona with a tough home series vs. Cal needs to win to stay top 16 (currently #15) and host a regional. If the Pac only gets 4 teams in, best we can hope for is to be called "top-heavy", and 2 national seeds with another regional host might make it less likely to have regionals paired with each other and a good chance to get more than 1 team to Omaha. Most of the conference tourneys seem to be unlikely to affect RPI very much for a top team that goes out early. OSU definitely doesn’t have to worry about bids stolen by lower-seed conference tourney champs (although Ucla might), so not worried much about those. Good info and conclusions. But, there is no worry no matter the seeding that two Pac12 teams get to Omaha. OSU will be the only one to get that far... may be only one out of a regional. |
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Post by rainmanrich on May 24, 2017 9:28:54 GMT -8
"I’m rooting for Long Beach, as I think they have already locked up a regional host spot. They cannot get to a top 8 RPI, but with a sweep, the Dirtbags could move up to a high enough ranking that it would be difficult to justify pairing that regional with Corvallis." It is my understanding, and I could be wrong (it happens enough), that the committee does not consider the RPI when pairing regionals. For instance, last week's D1baseball's mock bracket had the Corvallis regional paired with the Clemson regional. At the time they made the D1 bracket, Clemson's RPI was 10. To me, this is ridiculous. Why fight for a No.1 seed only to play one of the best metric teams? With that said, despite Clemson's high RPI they are only ranked 18th (D1) and I like our chances with them if we saw them in a Super. |
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Post by messi on May 24, 2017 10:59:31 GMT -8
I'm rooting for anyone to win the WCC Tournament except BYU. Don't want to spend an extra vacation day for the Corvallis Regional.
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Post by mbabeav on May 24, 2017 11:07:12 GMT -8
I will be at 2 or 3 of the ACU series, and obviously rooting for the Beavs to win and secure the #1 overall National Seed. I think the seed is important as it seems more clear that the Chapel Hill campus of UNC will be #2, and OSU wants to be on the opposite side of the bracket to only play them in the championship series. So looking at the final pre-tourney weekend of college baseball, I am trying to decide my rooting interests to best benefit OSU in the near and long term and interested in others' thoughts. References are to Boyd's World RPI and RPI needs reports. To anyone that wants to vehemently disagree, let me just say – “You’re right!” (unless you are trying to justify the zeroes or puppies getting into the tournament). • Stanford needs to win out in Pullman. It won’t put their RPI into the top 8 (currently #11), but d1Baseball.com has them projected to the final National Seed because of the normal recognition of the RPI bias against the west. Tree is all but guaranteed to host a regional, but it is important for them to be a national seed so OSU can avoid being paired with a Long Beach regional. • Cal State Fullerton hosts Long Beach in the biggest west coast series of the weekend. I’m rooting for Long Beach, as I think they have already locked up a regional host spot. They cannot get to a top 8 RPI, but with a sweep, the Dirtbags could move up to a high enough ranking that it would be difficult to justify pairing that regional with Corvallis. Also, Fullerton and their on-again, off-again pitching that scares me probably ends up in a Tucson or Palo Alto regional if the plan holds. • Ucla at zero is really important for the conference to get the Pac’s current 3rd-place team (and #4 RPI team at 52) into the tourney. Ucla just got crushed 12-4 at UC Irvine, but it shouldn’t hurt them much if they can win the road series in spite of the smell. RPI Needs says 3 wins gets them to Top 45 threshold, which would usually get a 3rd-place Pac team into a regional, and we do not want last season to become a precedent. RPI for zero (currently 78) leaves them out with only remaining games at home. • Arizona with a tough home series vs. Cal needs to win to stay top 16 (currently #15) and host a regional. If the Pac only gets 4 teams in, best we can hope for is to be called "top-heavy", and 2 national seeds with another regional host might make it less likely to have regionals paired with each other and a good chance to get more than 1 team to Omaha. Most of the conference tourneys seem to be unlikely to affect RPI very much for a top team that goes out early. OSU definitely doesn’t have to worry about bids stolen by lower-seed conference tourney champs (although Ucla might), so not worried much about those. Good info and conclusions. But, there is no worry no matter the seeding that two Pac12 teams get to Omaha. OSU will be the only one to get that far... may be only one out of a regional. I actually think that all 4 Pac-12 teams stand a good shot at getting out of a regional, assuming UCLA can run the Ducks. Furd and Zona have been playing solid ball, and UCLA is streaky enough to find a way to roll. Not a Pac-12 bias here, only team I really care about is #1 |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 24, 2017 12:30:29 GMT -8
"I’m rooting for Long Beach, as I think they have already locked up a regional host spot. They cannot get to a top 8 RPI, but with a sweep, the Dirtbags could move up to a high enough ranking that it would be difficult to justify pairing that regional with Corvallis." It is my understanding, and I could be wrong (it happens enough), that the committee does not consider the RPI when pairing regionals. For instance, last week's D1baseball's mock bracket had the Corvallis regional paired with the Clemson regional. At the time they made the D1 bracket, Clemson's RPI was 10. To me, this is ridiculous. Why fight for a No.1 seed only to play one of the best metric teams? With that said, despite Clemson's high RPI they are only ranked 18th (D1) and I like our chances with them if we saw them in a Super. I think Oregon State matches up very well with Clemson in a Super Regional. I also like the idea of Clemson having to travel all the way from South Carolina to Corvallis. There are a lot worse matchups. |
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Post by rainmanrich on May 24, 2017 13:47:37 GMT -8
It is my understanding, and I could be wrong (it happens enough), that the committee does not consider the RPI when pairing regionals. For instance, last week's D1baseball's mock bracket had the Corvallis regional paired with the Clemson regional. At the time they made the D1 bracket, Clemson's RPI was 10. To me, this is ridiculous. Why fight for a No.1 seed only to play one of the best metric teams? With that said, despite Clemson's high RPI they are only ranked 18th (D1) and I like our chances with them if we saw them in a Super. I think Oregon State matches up very well with Clemson in a Super Regional. I also like the idea of Clemson having to travel all the way from South Carolina to Corvallis. There are a lot worse matchups. Exactly. I'd also like to add that Clemson has a 11-13 record against top 50 RPI teams. There are quite a few other teams that may host a non-national seed regional that have fared much better even though their RPI's aren't as good as Clemson's. |
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Post by atownbeaver on May 24, 2017 13:48:51 GMT -8
It is my understanding, and I could be wrong (it happens enough), that the committee does not consider the RPI when pairing regionals. For instance, last week's D1baseball's mock bracket had the Corvallis regional paired with the Clemson regional. At the time they made the D1 bracket, Clemson's RPI was 10. To me, this is ridiculous. Why fight for a No.1 seed only to play one of the best metric teams? With that said, despite Clemson's high RPI they are only ranked 18th (D1) and I like our chances with them if we saw them in a Super. I think Oregon State matches up very well with Clemson in a Super Regional. I also like the idea of Clemson having to travel all the way from South Carolina to Corvallis. There are a lot worse matchups. Best pitching in the nation in a pitcher's park... I like how we match up against ANYBODY at home. We are #1 baby, doesn't matter who they line up for us, we will knock 'em down! |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 24, 2017 15:14:02 GMT -8
I pulled for Stanford in the Austin Regional in 2006. I pulled for North Carolina in the 2006 College World Series, because I liked the matchup. I pulled for Michigan in the Nasville Regional in 2007. I pulled for North Carolina in 2007, because they were coming into the championship series on fumes. I pulled for Belmont in the 2011 Nashville regional. I pulled for Virginia in the Charlottesville Super Regional in 2013. It's baseball. Matchups matter.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 25, 2017 14:28:54 GMT -8
I will be at 2 or 3 of the ACU series, and obviously rooting for the Beavs to win and secure the #1 overall National Seed. I think the seed is important as it seems more clear that the Chapel Hill campus of UNC will be #2, and OSU wants to be on the opposite side of the bracket to only play them in the championship series. So looking at the final pre-tourney weekend of college baseball, I am trying to decide my rooting interests to best benefit OSU in the near and long term and interested in others' thoughts. References are to Boyd's World RPI and RPI needs reports. To anyone that wants to vehemently disagree, let me just say – “You’re right!” (unless you are trying to justify the zeroes or puppies getting into the tournament). • Stanford needs to win out in Pullman. It won’t put their RPI into the top 8 (currently #11), but d1Baseball.com has them projected to the final National Seed because of the normal recognition of the RPI bias against the west. Tree is all but guaranteed to host a regional, but it is important for them to be a national seed so OSU can avoid being paired with a Long Beach regional. • Cal State Fullerton hosts Long Beach in the biggest west coast series of the weekend. I’m rooting for Long Beach, as I think they have already locked up a regional host spot. They cannot get to a top 8 RPI, but with a sweep, the Dirtbags could move up to a high enough ranking that it would be difficult to justify pairing that regional with Corvallis. Also, Fullerton and their on-again, off-again pitching that scares me probably ends up in a Tucson or Palo Alto regional if the plan holds. • Ucla at zero is really important for the conference to get the Pac’s current 3rd-place team (and #4 RPI team at 52) into the tourney. Ucla just got crushed 12-4 at UC Irvine, but it shouldn’t hurt them much if they can win the road series in spite of the smell. RPI Needs says 3 wins gets them to Top 45 threshold, which would usually get a 3rd-place Pac team into a regional, and we do not want last season to become a precedent. RPI for zero (currently 78) leaves them out with only remaining games at home. • Arizona with a tough home series vs. Cal needs to win to stay top 16 (currently #15) and host a regional. If the Pac only gets 4 teams in, best we can hope for is to be called "top-heavy", and 2 national seeds with another regional host might make it less likely to have regionals paired with each other and a good chance to get more than 1 team to Omaha. Most of the conference tourneys seem to be unlikely to affect RPI very much for a top team that goes out early. OSU definitely doesn’t have to worry about bids stolen by lower-seed conference tourney champs (although Ucla might), so not worried much about those. In the race for the #1 overall national seed, some conference tournament numbers and updated RPI numbers: In the ACC tournament: Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech did not finish in the top 12. #5 Clemson, #10 Georgia Tech, #11 Boston College, and #12 Notre Dame have been eliminated. #9 Duke is currently beating Virginia 4-3 in the eighth. The Duke-Virginia winner becomes the first team through to the semifinals. North Carolina won and is now within 209 RPI points of Oregon State. The Tar Heels play NC State (RPI: 30) tomorrow with an ACC semifinal bid on the line. In the Big 12 Tournament: The regular season for #3 Oklahoma, #5 Baylor, and #9 Kansas State has finished. #1 Texas Tech and #2 TCU are still alive in the losers' brackets. The winners' bracket is made up of #4 West Virginia, #6 Texas, #7 Kansas, and #8 Oklahoma State. In the SEC tournament: The regular season for #6 Vanderbilt, #7 Texas A&M, #9 Ole Miss, #10 Missouri, #12 Georgia, #13 Tennessee, and #14 Alabama has finished. Kentucky plays LSU tonight with a berth in the semifinals on the line. The loser plays South Carolina. For #1 overall in RPI, if Oregon State goes 4-0, North Carolina will close to be about 65 points back of Oregon State. North Carolina plays NC State tomorrow. If the Tar Heels win, they play the Miami (RPI: 46)-Wake Forest (RPI: 12) winner. If North Carolina wins the semi-final, the championship game will be against Duke (RPI: 91), Florida State (RPI: 14), Louisville (RPI: 5), or Virginia (RPI: 13). Each game against Abilene Christian is worth about 65 RPI points. Thus, if Oregon State goes 3-1, North Carolina and Oregon State move into a dead heat for the #1 overall RPI. If Oregon State goes 2-2, Florida and North Carolina pass Oregon State in RPI. Losses by the Gators and Tar Heels may catapult the Beavers back ahead. If Oregon State goes 1-3, Florida, Louisville, North Carolina, and Texas Tech all pass Oregon State. Louisville has a game tonight against Notre Dame. If the Irish win, that would push Louisville behind Kentucky into sixth in RPI and keep Oregon State in fifth with a 1-3 record. If Oregon State goes 0-4, the Beavers would fall to eighth in RPI. If Kentucky beats LSU, Oregon State LSU's RPI would fall to a point that they could not pass Oregon State without playing in the SEC championship game. Stanford may be able to catch LSU, if LSU loses to Kentucky and does not come back to play in the SEC championship game. The Cardinal need to sweep the Cougars. If Wazzu wins one, Stanford falls behind Clemson into 11th in RPI. Southern Miss (RPI: 10) plays the Charlotte-UTSA loser tomorrow for a spot in the semifinals against the Charlotte-UTSA winner. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 26, 2017 13:22:11 GMT -8
I will be at 2 or 3 of the ACU series, and obviously rooting for the Beavs to win and secure the #1 overall National Seed. I think the seed is important as it seems more clear that the Chapel Hill campus of UNC will be #2, and OSU wants to be on the opposite side of the bracket to only play them in the championship series. So looking at the final pre-tourney weekend of college baseball, I am trying to decide my rooting interests to best benefit OSU in the near and long term and interested in others' thoughts. References are to Boyd's World RPI and RPI needs reports. To anyone that wants to vehemently disagree, let me just say – “You’re right!” (unless you are trying to justify the zeroes or puppies getting into the tournament). • Stanford needs to win out in Pullman. It won’t put their RPI into the top 8 (currently #11), but d1Baseball.com has them projected to the final National Seed because of the normal recognition of the RPI bias against the west. Tree is all but guaranteed to host a regional, but it is important for them to be a national seed so OSU can avoid being paired with a Long Beach regional. • Cal State Fullerton hosts Long Beach in the biggest west coast series of the weekend. I’m rooting for Long Beach, as I think they have already locked up a regional host spot. They cannot get to a top 8 RPI, but with a sweep, the Dirtbags could move up to a high enough ranking that it would be difficult to justify pairing that regional with Corvallis. Also, Fullerton and their on-again, off-again pitching that scares me probably ends up in a Tucson or Palo Alto regional if the plan holds. • Ucla at zero is really important for the conference to get the Pac’s current 3rd-place team (and #4 RPI team at 52) into the tourney. Ucla just got crushed 12-4 at UC Irvine, but it shouldn’t hurt them much if they can win the road series in spite of the smell. RPI Needs says 3 wins gets them to Top 45 threshold, which would usually get a 3rd-place Pac team into a regional, and we do not want last season to become a precedent. RPI for zero (currently 78) leaves them out with only remaining games at home. • Arizona with a tough home series vs. Cal needs to win to stay top 16 (currently #15) and host a regional. If the Pac only gets 4 teams in, best we can hope for is to be called "top-heavy", and 2 national seeds with another regional host might make it less likely to have regionals paired with each other and a good chance to get more than 1 team to Omaha. Most of the conference tourneys seem to be unlikely to affect RPI very much for a top team that goes out early. OSU definitely doesn’t have to worry about bids stolen by lower-seed conference tourney champs (although Ucla might), so not worried much about those. In the race for the #1 overall national seed, some conference tournament numbers and updated RPI numbers: In the ACC tournament: Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech did not finish in the top 12. #5 Clemson, #10 Georgia Tech, #11 Boston College, and #12 Notre Dame have been eliminated. #9 Duke is currently beating Virginia 4-3 in the eighth. The Duke-Virginia winner becomes the first team through to the semifinals. North Carolina won and is now within 209 RPI points of Oregon State. The Tar Heels play NC State (RPI: 30) tomorrow with an ACC semifinal bid on the line. In the Big 12 Tournament: The regular season for #3 Oklahoma, #5 Baylor, and #9 Kansas State has finished. #1 Texas Tech and #2 TCU are still alive in the losers' brackets. The winners' bracket is made up of #4 West Virginia, #6 Texas, #7 Kansas, and #8 Oklahoma State. In the SEC tournament: The regular season for #6 Vanderbilt, #7 Texas A&M, #9 Ole Miss, #10 Missouri, #12 Georgia, #13 Tennessee, and #14 Alabama has finished. Kentucky plays LSU tonight with a berth in the semifinals on the line. The loser plays South Carolina. For #1 overall in RPI, if Oregon State goes 4-0, North Carolina will close to be about 65 points back of Oregon State. North Carolina plays NC State tomorrow. If the Tar Heels win, they play the Miami (RPI: 46)-Wake Forest (RPI: 12) winner. If North Carolina wins the semi-final, the championship game will be against Duke (RPI: 91), Florida State (RPI: 14), Louisville (RPI: 5), or Virginia (RPI: 13). Each game against Abilene Christian is worth about 65 RPI points. Thus, if Oregon State goes 3-1, North Carolina and Oregon State move into a dead heat for the #1 overall RPI. If Oregon State goes 2-2, Florida and North Carolina pass Oregon State in RPI. Losses by the Gators and Tar Heels may catapult the Beavers back ahead. If Oregon State goes 1-3, Florida, Louisville, North Carolina, and Texas Tech all pass Oregon State. Louisville has a game tonight against Notre Dame. If the Irish win, that would push Louisville behind Kentucky into sixth in RPI and keep Oregon State in fifth with a 1-3 record. If Oregon State goes 0-4, the Beavers would fall to eighth in RPI. If Kentucky beats LSU, Oregon State LSU's RPI would fall to a point that they could not pass Oregon State without playing in the SEC championship game. Stanford may be able to catch LSU, if LSU loses to Kentucky and does not come back to play in the SEC championship game. The Cardinal need to sweep the Cougars. If Wazzu wins one, Stanford falls behind Clemson into 11th in RPI. Southern Miss (RPI: 10) plays the Charlotte-UTSA loser tomorrow for a spot in the semifinals against the Charlotte-UTSA winner. In the ACC tournament: #9 Duke upset #4 Virginia yesterday to go through to the semifinal. Virginia also beat Clemson to cap the Cavs and Tigers' regular season. #6 Miami upset #3 Wake Forest to punch its ticket to to the semifinal. #1 Louisville plays #8 Florida State and #2 North Carolina plays #7 NC State with the other berths on the line. North Carolina is now within 176 RPI points of Oregon State. The Tar Heels play NC State (RPI: 30) today. If they win, they play Miami (RPI: 41) in the semifinal. The final would be against Louisville (RPI: 5), Florida State (RPI: 12), or Duke (RPI: 86). If North Carolina beats NC State and Miami, the most points that they could get would be 26 to pull within 150. If Oregon State wins the next three, North Carolina would need to get at least 48 points out of the ACC final, in order to tie or pass Oregon State. Assuming that that math holds, North Carolina passes Oregon State with two wins and one Oregon State loss. If North Carolina loses either game, the Tar Heels would need Oregon State to lose at least two to pass the Beavers. In the Big 12 Tournament: #6 Texas and #8 Oklahoma State are in tomorrow's semifinals, awaiting the results from #1 Texas Tech and #4 West Virginia and #2 TCU and #7 Kansas today. In the SEC tournament: #1 Florida and #2 LSU won to advance to the semifinals. #3 Kentucky plays #11 South Carolina for a chance to play LSU. #4 Arkansas plays #5 Mississippi State for a chance to play Florida. Oregon State leads North Carolina by 176 RPI points. However, the three games against Abilene Christian will erode that to 74 win-or-lose. North Carolina can make it about 48 with two wins. Each game against Abilene Christian is worth about 65 RPI points. Thus, if Oregon State goes 2-1, North Carolina passes Oregon State into first with two wins. If the Tar Heels lose either game, they cannot pass Oregon State absent a large number of North Carolina's opponents winning and a large number of Oregon State's opponents losing. If Oregon State goes 1-2, Florida and North Carolina pass Oregon State in RPI. Losses by the Gators and Tar Heels may catapult the Beavers back ahead, but it would be hard for Oregon State to stay ahead of North Carolina absent Duke winning the ACC or one of Oregon State's non-conference opponents doing similar. If Oregon State goes 0-3, Florida, Louisville, North Carolina, and Texas Tech all pass Oregon State. Louisville has a game tonight against Florida State. If the Seminoles win, that would eliminate the Cardinals and keep Oregon State in fourth with an 0-3 record. Florida, North Carolina, and Texas Tech would be difficult to stay ahead of, if Oregon State goes 0-3. LSU beat Kentucky to leapfrog both Kentucky and TCU into sixth place. Stanford may be able to catch TCU, if the Cardinal beat the Cougars twice and the Jayhawks beat the Horned Frogs. Stanford may also be able to catch LSU, if LSU posts two losses, in particular if those two losses are to South Carolina. Southern Miss (RPI: 10) plays UTSA tonight for a spot in the semifinals against Charlotte. Southern Miss can pass Stanford into ninth, if Southern Miss wins and Stanford loses one of the next two games. With three wins against California, Arizona would pass Virginia and move into a dead heat tie with Wake Forest at 13. A loss to California would push Arizona back to, at best, 20 in RPI. Long Beach State started the weekend in 17th in RPI. With the loss yesterday, the Dirt Bags fell to 18th in RPI. Long Beach State with two wins could shoot up to 12th in RPI. A split would keep the Dirt Bags at 18th. Two losses would propel Long Beach State back to no better than 21st. If Arizona loses to California once, that would move Long Beach State up a spot with one loss. Likewise, Arizona is moved up a spot with a loss and two Long Beach State losses. With two wins, UCLA would move into 43rd place in RPI, depending upon other teams' results, and would probably lock up a spot. A split and UCLA would stay in 52nd, depending upon other teams' results. Two losses would knock UCLA back to 62nd, depending upon other teams' results. Washington needs to beat USC twice to have a snowball's chance and that would still leave the Huskies in the mid-60s for RPI, behind UCLA. With the loss yesterday, Oregon is officially unofficially done. With a sweep, the Ducks would have eliminated the Bruins and passed Washington in RPI. UCLA looks like the fourth team in the Pac-12. If the conference gets five bids, Washington is the fifth bid. For those concerned about a Thursday start, BYU dropped the first game of the West Coast Conference tournament and now is up by five in the seventh to St. Mary's. A loss unofficially officially eliminates BYU from at large consideration. Additionally, a win by St. Mary's allows the Gaels to leapfrog the Huskies, making it bleaker for Washington to secure an at-large bid. |
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Post by beaverama1 on May 26, 2017 14:19:55 GMT -8
Regardless of RPI, we're basically a lock for the #1 overall seed. Don't know how the committee could even hold a meaningless series loss against us (although I suppose weirder things have happened). Even if our RPI drops to 2, or 3, or 7 -- it's going to be really hard to ignore the rest of our resume. Every other team in the nation has twice as many losses as us or more.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 26, 2017 15:09:31 GMT -8
Regardless of RPI, we're basically a lock for the #1 overall seed. Don't know how the committee could even hold a meaningless series loss against us (although I suppose weirder things have happened). Even if our RPI drops to 2, or 3, or 7 -- it's going to be really hard to ignore the rest of our resume. Every other team in the nation has twice as many losses as us or more. If Oregon State loses the series, the Beavers finish 46-7. Louisville looks like it is going down to defeat against Florida State. If that happens, the Cardinals finish with a 47-10 record, more wins and only three more losses. And the argument would be that Louisvile played in the ACC, the third-best conference, not the Pac-12, the fifth-best conference. If North Carolina wins the ACC Tournament, the Tar Heels would finish 48-11. Two more wins and four more losses. And the argument would be that North Carolina played in the much better ACC and played a much more difficult non-conference schedule and would finish with a better record against non-conference competition. I think 48-5 will be hard to ignore. I still think Oregon State takes the #1 overall seed. But 47-6. 2-2 against Abilene Christian to end the season? And teams X, Y, and Z just won their conference tournaments and have all of these wins in "better" conferences. You will start hearing things like, but, oh, they finished stronger. Better team over the past X games. Etc. Oregon State certainly deserves a national seed. The question, in my mind, is which seed? The answer will largely depend on whether Oregon State wins the series against Abilene Christian or not. |
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Post by baseba1111 on May 26, 2017 15:20:57 GMT -8
Regardless of RPI, we're basically a lock for the #1 overall seed. Don't know how the committee could even hold a meaningless series loss against us (although I suppose weirder things have happened). Even if our RPI drops to 2, or 3, or 7 -- it's going to be really hard to ignore the rest of our resume. Every other team in the nation has twice as many losses as us or more. If Oregon State loses the series, the Beavers finish 46-7. Louisville looks like it is going down to defeat against Florida State. If that happens, the Cardinals finish with a 47-10 record, more wins and only three more losses. And the argument would be that Louisvile played in the ACC, the third-best conference, not the Pac-12, the fifth-best conference. If North Carolina wins the ACC Tournament, the Tar Heels would finish 48-11. Two more wins and four more losses. And the argument would be that North Carolina played in the much better ACC and played a much more difficult non-conference schedule and would finish with a better record against non-conference competition. I think 48-5 will be hard to ignore. I still think Oregon State takes the #1 overall seed. But 47-6. 2-2 against Abilene Christian to end the season? And teams X, Y, and Z just won their conference tournaments and have all of these wins in "better" conferences. You will start hearing things like, but, oh, they finished stronger. Better team over the past X games. Etc. Oregon State certainly deserves a national seed. The question, in my mind, is which seed? The answer will largely depend on whether Oregon State wins the series against Abilene Christian or not. In those instances how can all those that disparaged the committee last year expect common sense this year? 😁 |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 27, 2017 22:52:19 GMT -8
In the race for the #1 overall national seed, some conference tournament numbers and updated RPI numbers: In the ACC tournament: Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech did not finish in the top 12. #5 Clemson, #10 Georgia Tech, #11 Boston College, and #12 Notre Dame have been eliminated. #9 Duke is currently beating Virginia 4-3 in the eighth. The Duke-Virginia winner becomes the first team through to the semifinals. North Carolina won and is now within 209 RPI points of Oregon State. The Tar Heels play NC State (RPI: 30) tomorrow with an ACC semifinal bid on the line. In the Big 12 Tournament: The regular season for #3 Oklahoma, #5 Baylor, and #9 Kansas State has finished. #1 Texas Tech and #2 TCU are still alive in the losers' brackets. The winners' bracket is made up of #4 West Virginia, #6 Texas, #7 Kansas, and #8 Oklahoma State. In the SEC tournament: The regular season for #6 Vanderbilt, #7 Texas A&M, #9 Ole Miss, #10 Missouri, #12 Georgia, #13 Tennessee, and #14 Alabama has finished. Kentucky plays LSU tonight with a berth in the semifinals on the line. The loser plays South Carolina. For #1 overall in RPI, if Oregon State goes 4-0, North Carolina will close to be about 65 points back of Oregon State. North Carolina plays NC State tomorrow. If the Tar Heels win, they play the Miami (RPI: 46)-Wake Forest (RPI: 12) winner. If North Carolina wins the semi-final, the championship game will be against Duke (RPI: 91), Florida State (RPI: 14), Louisville (RPI: 5), or Virginia (RPI: 13). Each game against Abilene Christian is worth about 65 RPI points. Thus, if Oregon State goes 3-1, North Carolina and Oregon State move into a dead heat for the #1 overall RPI. If Oregon State goes 2-2, Florida and North Carolina pass Oregon State in RPI. Losses by the Gators and Tar Heels may catapult the Beavers back ahead. If Oregon State goes 1-3, Florida, Louisville, North Carolina, and Texas Tech all pass Oregon State. Louisville has a game tonight against Notre Dame. If the Irish win, that would push Louisville behind Kentucky into sixth in RPI and keep Oregon State in fifth with a 1-3 record. If Oregon State goes 0-4, the Beavers would fall to eighth in RPI. If Kentucky beats LSU, Oregon State LSU's RPI would fall to a point that they could not pass Oregon State without playing in the SEC championship game. Stanford may be able to catch LSU, if LSU loses to Kentucky and does not come back to play in the SEC championship game. The Cardinal need to sweep the Cougars. If Wazzu wins one, Stanford falls behind Clemson into 11th in RPI. Southern Miss (RPI: 10) plays the Charlotte-UTSA loser tomorrow for a spot in the semifinals against the Charlotte-UTSA winner. In the ACC tournament: #9 Duke upset #4 Virginia yesterday to go through to the semifinal. Virginia also beat Clemson to cap the Cavs and Tigers' regular season. #6 Miami upset #3 Wake Forest to punch its ticket to to the semifinal. #1 Louisville plays #8 Florida State and #2 North Carolina plays #7 NC State with the other berths on the line. North Carolina is now within 176 RPI points of Oregon State. The Tar Heels play NC State (RPI: 30) today. If they win, they play Miami (RPI: 41) in the semifinal. The final would be against Louisville (RPI: 5), Florida State (RPI: 12), or Duke (RPI: 86). If North Carolina beats NC State and Miami, the most points that they could get would be 26 to pull within 150. If Oregon State wins the next three, North Carolina would need to get at least 48 points out of the ACC final, in order to tie or pass Oregon State. Assuming that that math holds, North Carolina passes Oregon State with two wins and one Oregon State loss. If North Carolina loses either game, the Tar Heels would need Oregon State to lose at least two to pass the Beavers. In the Big 12 Tournament: #6 Texas and #8 Oklahoma State are in tomorrow's semifinals, awaiting the results from #1 Texas Tech and #4 West Virginia and #2 TCU and #7 Kansas today. In the SEC tournament: #1 Florida and #2 LSU won to advance to the semifinals. #3 Kentucky plays #11 South Carolina for a chance to play LSU. #4 Arkansas plays #5 Mississippi State for a chance to play Florida. Oregon State leads North Carolina by 176 RPI points. However, the three games against Abilene Christian will erode that to 74 win-or-lose. North Carolina can make it about 48 with two wins. Each game against Abilene Christian is worth about 65 RPI points. Thus, if Oregon State goes 2-1, North Carolina passes Oregon State into first with two wins. If the Tar Heels lose either game, they cannot pass Oregon State absent a large number of North Carolina's opponents winning and a large number of Oregon State's opponents losing. If Oregon State goes 1-2, Florida and North Carolina pass Oregon State in RPI. Losses by the Gators and Tar Heels may catapult the Beavers back ahead, but it would be hard for Oregon State to stay ahead of North Carolina absent Duke winning the ACC or one of Oregon State's non-conference opponents doing similar. If Oregon State goes 0-3, Florida, Louisville, North Carolina, and Texas Tech all pass Oregon State. Louisville has a game tonight against Florida State. If the Seminoles win, that would eliminate the Cardinals and keep Oregon State in fourth with an 0-3 record. Florida, North Carolina, and Texas Tech would be difficult to stay ahead of, if Oregon State goes 0-3. LSU beat Kentucky to leapfrog both Kentucky and TCU into sixth place. Stanford may be able to catch TCU, if the Cardinal beat the Cougars twice and the Jayhawks beat the Horned Frogs. Stanford may also be able to catch LSU, if LSU posts two losses, in particular if those two losses are to South Carolina. Southern Miss (RPI: 10) plays UTSA tonight for a spot in the semifinals against Charlotte. Southern Miss can pass Stanford into ninth, if Southern Miss wins and Stanford loses one of the next two games. With three wins against California, Arizona would pass Virginia and move into a dead heat tie with Wake Forest at 13. A loss to California would push Arizona back to, at best, 20 in RPI. Long Beach State started the weekend in 17th in RPI. With the loss yesterday, the Dirt Bags fell to 18th in RPI. Long Beach State with two wins could shoot up to 12th in RPI. A split would keep the Dirt Bags at 18th. Two losses would propel Long Beach State back to no better than 21st. If Arizona loses to California once, that would move Long Beach State up a spot with one loss. Likewise, Arizona is moved up a spot with a loss and two Long Beach State losses. With two wins, UCLA would move into 43rd place in RPI, depending upon other teams' results, and would probably lock up a spot. A split and UCLA would stay in 52nd, depending upon other teams' results. Two losses would knock UCLA back to 62nd, depending upon other teams' results. Washington needs to beat USC twice to have a snowball's chance and that would still leave the Huskies in the mid-60s for RPI, behind UCLA. With the loss yesterday, Oregon is officially unofficially done. With a sweep, the Ducks would have eliminated the Bruins and passed Washington in RPI. UCLA looks like the fourth team in the Pac-12. If the conference gets five bids, Washington is the fifth bid. For those concerned about a Thursday start, BYU dropped the first game of the West Coast Conference tournament and now is up by five in the seventh to St. Mary's. A loss unofficially officially eliminates BYU from at large consideration. Additionally, a win by St. Mary's allows the Gaels to leapfrog the Huskies, making it bleaker for Washington to secure an at-large bid. In the ACC Tournament: North Carolina (RPI: 2) and Florida State (RPI: 11) and play for the ACC title. North Carolina is now within 66 RPI points of Oregon State. Because of positive opponents' results for North Carolina and negative results for Oregon State, North Carolina has closed an extra 10 RPI points. If Oregon State wins tomorrow, North Carolina would probably need to get at least 35 points out of the ACC final, in order to tie or pass Oregon State. Assuming that that math holds, North Carolina passes Oregon State with a win and an Oregon State loss. It is difficult to project at this point, but North Carolina may be able to pass Oregon State, if the Beavers and Tar Heels both lose. In the Big 12 Tournament: #6 Texas and #8 Oklahoma State are in tomorrow's final. In the SEC tournament: #2 LSU and #4 Arkansas won to advance to the semifinals. The race for #8 is very tight. Southern Miss has catapulted the two into eighth with one game to go. Southern Miss has won four straight after dropping the opener in the Conference USA Tournament and plays Rice tomorrow for the Conference USA Championship. Southern Miss leads Kentucky by 1 RPI point and the two lead Stanford by 3 and 2 RPI points, respectively. Florida State, Long Beach State, and Texas, with wins, all passed Arizona in the last 24 hours. Arizona lost 9-6 to California. Arkansas, Florida State, and Texas may steal host spots with wins tomorrow. A loss to the Bears would really damage the Wildcats' chances of hosting a regional. Even with a win, Arizona's hosting chances do not look as promising as they were yesterday. Long Beach State won the series against Cal State Fullerton and is now 14th in RPI. Florida State and Arkansas are 25 and 17 points ahead of Long Beach State, respectively. UCLA split with Oregon and is 52nd in RPI, as projected. UCLA should get in, but will probably be one of the last eight in. Oregon and Washington's profiles are not at large profiles. |
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