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Post by ochobeavo on Mar 14, 2017 6:38:47 GMT -8
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Post by mbabeav on Mar 14, 2017 9:32:03 GMT -8
There have been squads over the years that I liked, some I have loved, and a few that have just been jaw dropping. This pitching staff is perhaps not the best I have seen at the front end, but our bullpen is. The only thing keeping me from crowning them is that pesky Pac-12 schedule  , but Casey has had a chance to play a lot of people in a lot of positions in the run-up to the start of the conference games, and once he selects the starting 9 (IMO) in a relatively regular lineup the errors will come down. I really believe that Madrigal might be hitting himself into the 3rd slot. With him to protect KJ (and vice versus) with Trevor and an improving Rutschman following - well, I think the best is yet to come for this team. With our depth (and all those freshmen playing/pitching like they are seasoned vets), I don't think we are going to leave it up to any stinkin committee to make it into the tourney this season. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Mar 14, 2017 9:52:03 GMT -8
There have been squads over the years that I liked, some I have loved, and a few that have just been jaw dropping. This pitching staff is perhaps not the best I have seen at the front end, but our bullpen is. The only thing keeping me from crowning them is that pesky Pac-12 schedule , but Casey has had a chance to play a lot of people in a lot of positions in the run-up to the start of the conference games, and once he selects the starting 9 (IMO) in a relatively regular lineup the errors will come down. I really believe that Madrigal might be hitting himself into the 3rd slot. With him to protect KJ (and vice versus) with Trevor and an improving Rutschman following - well, I think the best is yet to come for this team. With our depth (and all those freshmen playing/pitching like they are seasoned vets), I don't think we are going to leave it up to any stinkin committee to make it into the tourney this season. There is a problem with depth... only 8 can play and in baseball you truly need to play to get into a rhythm. Tinkering with the lineup too much can be a negative. Roles need to be defined and mental makeup accordingly. If you're a key reserve and injury or slump makes you the next man up... be ready. But, to be more effective we need less interchangeable parts and some defined starters. That being said, I've been disappointed in the offense... beside Nick. We've had uncharacteristically poor plate discipline at times, poor execution of small ball, and some baserunning lapses. All vs inferior competition. In other words kids have not performed enough to grab defined roles. We've improved on the D, but that came with home "turf". Still questioning all the Es in Surprise and semi concerned about going back to natural surface Thur-Sat. So, I know polls are bunk at this point... but, I had the same concern last year when we were rated high early. So far we've not shown superiority in any area but pitching. It starts Thursday vs the best team we've seen so far. Go BEAVS! |
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Post by eugenedave on Mar 15, 2017 7:19:32 GMT -8
Why are some Beaver fans always with the negative vibes? Who the hell expects them to play error free ball in the first few weeks? They are shaking the rust off. That's why they play these non-conference games. There has not been poor plate discipline. We have had very few strikeouts, and most guys are making solid contact with the ball. And when was there poor execution of small ball? We have been getting bunts down nearly all the time. I blame the runners for bad choices on the throwouts at the plate last weekend. Season is early, they will learn. They have most definitely performed well enough for there to be defined roles. I expect to see far fewer lineup changes this season than in the past. And polls are always "bunk" to some degree. We are a very, very good team this year. Enjoy the ride, because it is going to be a memorable season. One that hopefully ends in Omaha.
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Post by ricke71 on Mar 15, 2017 8:17:33 GMT -8
"We've improved on the D, but that came with home "turf". Still questioning all the Es in Surprise and semi concerned about going back to natural surface Thur-Sat."
Errors were in fact a problem early in Surprise. Once Casey more or less settled on Gretler / Grenier / Madrigal at 3B, 2B, SS, that cleared up nicely, in AZ. In the final 4 games in Surprise, of the 6 errors, 3 were on Donahue (all/most at 2B I believe), and 2 were on errant pick-off throws to 1B by Fehmel. Only 1 error in those four games was charged against Gretler / Grenier / Madrigal...that being Gretler with an error, playing at 3B.
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Post by baseba1111 on Mar 15, 2017 10:24:33 GMT -8
Why are some Beaver fans always with the negative vibes? Who the hell expects them to play error free ball in the first few weeks? They are shaking the rust off. That's why they play these non-conference games. There has not been poor plate discipline. We have had very few strikeouts, and most guys are making solid contact with the ball. And when was there poor execution of small ball? We have been getting bunts down nearly all the time. I blame the runners for bad choices on the throwouts at the plate last weekend. Season is early, they will learn. They have most definitely performed well enough for there to be defined roles. I expect to see far fewer lineup changes this season than in the past. And polls are always "bunk" to some degree. We are a very, very good team this year. Enjoy the ride, because it is going to be a memorable season. One that hopefully ends in Omaha. I'm not going to argue with your "orange tinted glasses"... if you actually watch the games with a realistic view and what it will take this team to win the Pac12 and have a puncher's chance in the post season you'd see the same. Details seem to be unimportant to you, so the numerous missed bunts, poorly placed bunts, # of different starting lineups, LOB #, number of low BAs and OBP vs inferior pitching, etc don't really exist. This is currently a good team who's beaten teams they should... handily. To be where you think they are they need to dramatically improve in several areas. Which, by the way is the point... not to be very, very good until May/June. |
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Post by zeroposter on Mar 15, 2017 11:14:28 GMT -8
As far as the "turf" issue, Casey has addressed that in previous years. It is definitely a factor as those AZ and Cali fields tend to be a whole lot quicker. The Surprise field plays like Goss, but the semi-concrete fields are much quicker though I don't know how the ASU field compares. Quicker, with balls that skip or bounce higher is my bet.
Casey has also spoken numerous times already on the small ball problems. This series will be a true test, and Baseballl wasn't shooting out his rear on this one. Still, I am optimistic as heck and pleased with the record.
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Post by OSUprof on Mar 15, 2017 12:14:24 GMT -8
LOB - one of the most poorly understood stats in college baseball. All CWS winners with the exception of Fresno State in the last 14 years have more LOB per game than their opponents over the entire season. Fresno State was a team that got hot in its conference tourney and went on to win it all but they did not have a good record entering the tourney.
CWS Winners LOB Team OPP
Coastal Carolina 7.8 7.5
Virginia 8.4 7.6
Vanderbilt 7.7 6.2
UCLA 8.3 7.1
Arizona 8.4 7.4
S. Carolina 8.7 7.9
S. Carolina 8.4 7.1
LSU 7.4 7.0
Fresno State 8.1 8.3
OSU 8.5 7.5
OSU 9.1 7.6
Texas 8.2 7.2
Fullerton 8.2 6.6
Rice 8.5 7.0
Mean 8.3 7.3
All but one last place team in the Pac 12 over the past decade finished with fewer LOB per game than their opponents over the entire season. In other words, the best teams lose the LOB battle with their opponents while the bad teams win that battle over their opponents.
Fans and coaches alike view LOB as lost opportunities and they want to reduce LOB. I'll take scoring more runs than the opponents, thank you.
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Post by wetrodentia on Mar 15, 2017 13:15:35 GMT -8
I know enough about baseball to know I don't know a lot about baseball, so point of view is "Leaving men on base is better than not getting them there at all".
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Post by ochobeavo on Mar 15, 2017 13:18:39 GMT -8
We did leave 44 on base over the weekend vs Ball State so if it seemed a bit higher than "normal" - that's because it was. But yes, if you get'em on, chances are, you're going to leave some on!
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Post by baseba1111 on Mar 15, 2017 13:55:07 GMT -8
However, the topic wasn't a comparison of team vs opponents and good teams leaving more LOB. Which really has no correlation as one is an offensive stat, and needs to be looked at in terms of runs scored and efficiency. Where the opponent LOB is a defensive stat that is a factor of your pitching/defense.
The original topic was OSU is leaving too many (I'm of the opinion that 11 per game vs a Ball St team is a tad too many) as of late and needs to improve as we move into league play/better competition.
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Post by blackbug on Mar 15, 2017 14:05:33 GMT -8
LOB - one of the most poorly understood stats in college baseball. All CWS winners with the exception of Fresno State in the last 14 years have more LOB per game than their opponents over the entire season. Fresno State was a team that got hot in its conference tourney and went on to win it all but they did not have a good record entering the tourney. CWS Winners LOB Team OPP Coastal Carolina 7.8 7.5 Virginia 8.4 7.6 Vanderbilt 7.7 6.2 UCLA 8.3 7.1 Arizona 8.4 7.4 S. Carolina 8.7 7.9 S. Carolina 8.4 7.1 LSU 7.4 7.0 Fresno State 8.1 8.3 OSU 8.5 7.5 OSU 9.1 7.6 Texas 8.2 7.2 Fullerton 8.2 6.6 Rice 8.5 7.0 Mean 8.3 7.3 All but one last place team in the Pac 12 over the past decade finished with fewer LOB per game than their opponents over the entire season. In other words, the best teams lose the LOB battle with their opponents while the bad teams win that battle over their opponents. Fans and coaches alike view LOB as lost opportunities and they want to reduce LOB. I'll take scoring more runs than the opponents, thank you. So where are we currently this year on this stat? Is it comparable to teams that won the championship? |
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Post by beaver94 on Mar 15, 2017 14:06:32 GMT -8
So what your saying is that OSU is doing too good of a job getting guys on base.
I'm in the group of not really knowing a lot about baseball but I still don't understand how this is a bad thing. It seems that in a game that has the percentages in favor of the defense getting more guys on base can't be bad. Just gives more opportunities to get them batted in.
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Post by orangeblood on Mar 15, 2017 14:10:04 GMT -8
It seems that the only meaningful "LOB" stat would be what percentage of men who reach base are left on base. FWIW, Ball State last week had very few men left on base.
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Post by kersting13 on Mar 15, 2017 15:00:43 GMT -8
OSU's style of play probably leads to more LOBs.
Casey relies heavily on bunts to move runners over. Bunts reduce the # of opportunities you have to drive runners in, while giving you better opportunities for the times you do have runners on. Over the course of time, it's a net negative for run scoring (I am not attempting to criticize Casey's use of bunting).
OSU also has been relatively conservative in the stolen base department. Stealing attempts definitely reduce your LOB #s because guys get thrown out or move into scoring position.
In prof's data above, OSU has the two highest LOB #s of any CWS champion on the list.
As a small ball team that takes a lot of walks without a lot of mashers to clear the bases, I think it's more likely than not that we'll always have higher LOB numbers than average.
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, but Casey has had a chance to play a lot of people in a lot of positions in the run-up to the start of the conference games, and once he selects the starting 9 (IMO) in a relatively regular lineup the errors will come down.
