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Post by halverbk on Feb 25, 2017 9:09:42 GMT -8
WBB tournament seeding (my review - I needed a brainteaser)
1-OSU LOCKED !!!!!!
2-3 Stanford/UW - doesn't matter to us because they are on the other side of the bracket
4 UCLA locked
5 ASU locked
6 UO locked
7 Cal
8-11 USC, Utah, WSU, Colorado
12 UA
The 4,5,8,9,12 seeds are on our side of the bracket. With us beating Cal, that knocks them into the mixer. Assume UW beats Utah.
If USC beats Arizona: Cal, USC, winner of WSU/CO are 7-9. Cal > Colorado > USC, WSU > Cal, WSU = USC, CO.
I think that means if WSU wins today they take the 7 seed once Cal loses. Impressive considering they lost their star player a while back. Cal & USC are the 8-9 (winner playing us in the quarters - yuck).
If Colorado beats WSU today and Cal loses tomorrow, Cal takes the 7, Colorado the 8, and USC the 9.
We play winner of Colorado-USC.
Loser of WSU-CO and Utah are 10-11 and Arizona is 12.
Arizona did beat ASU last week at home. Neutral court is to ASU's advantage.
If Arizona beats USC: Cal and winner of WSU/CO are 7-8. WSU has the tiebreak against Cal, Cal over Colorado. So the 8 would be Cal or Colorado. Loser of WSU/CO, USC, Utah & Arizona tie for 9-12. (Mind goes numb)
UA >WSU,Utah; =USC; <CO
CO >USC,UA; =UT
UT >USC; =CO,WSU; <UA
WSU =UT, USC; <UA
USC =USC,UA; <CO,UT
CO 9, UA 10, UT 11, USC 12 with 8-9 game of Cal-Colorado and ASU-USC 5-12.
UA 9, UT 10, USC 11, WSU 12 I think would be the end result with 8-9 game being CO-UA, 5-12 ASU-WSU, and USC on the other side(Like!)
So to summarize:
WSU and USC win this weekend - Cal-USC 8-9
CO and USC win - CO-USC 8-9
CO and AZ win - CO-UA 8-9
WSU and AZ win - Cal-CO 8-9
No Utah or WSU. I think. So to answer the subject line question: I am rooting for CO and UA.
GO BEAVS - Take down the Bears.
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Post by bennyskid on Feb 25, 2017 9:42:53 GMT -8
You're worried about the #8 seed in the Pac? Let's talk about what really matters!
Here's the last Tourney "reveal".
1. UConn
2. Mississippi State
3. Baylor
4. Notre Dame
5. South Carolina
6. Texas
7. Maryland
8. Oregon State
9. Florida State
Maryland lost to Ohio State and has no chance of a #2 seed. Texas just lost to Iowa State. MSU just lost to Kentucky. We're now at #5 in the RPI and if we beat Cal we're pretty close to a lock for a #2 seed. The question is - can we get to a #1?
Notre Dame and Florida State end their regular season schedule against each other. Baylor is at Oklahoma (#16). MSU finishes at home vs Tennessee while South Carolina has Kentucky at home. So everyone but UConn has at least one more good test, and then they all have their conference tournaments. Obviously SC and MSU can't both win the SEC - if we win out we're passing one of those two.
So there is your list . . . we want to win out and see any combination of these regular season upsets:
Florida State over Notre Dame
Kentucky over South Carolina
Tennessee over Mississippi State
Oklahoma over Baylor
And in the conference tournaments . . . just root for chaos.
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Post by jefframp on Feb 25, 2017 9:53:36 GMT -8
WBB tournament seeding (my review - I needed a brainteaser)
1-OSU LOCKED !!!!!!
2-3 Stanford/UW - doesn't matter to us because they are on the other side of the bracket
4 UCLA locked
5 ASU locked
6 UO locked
7 Cal
8-11 USC, Utah, WSU, Colorado
12 UA
The 4,5,8,9,12 seeds are on our side of the bracket. With us beating Cal, that knocks them into the mixer. Assume UW beats Utah.
If USC beats Arizona: Cal, USC, winner of WSU/CO are 7-9. Cal > Colorado > USC, WSU > Cal, WSU = USC, CO.
I think that means if WSU wins today they take the 7 seed once Cal loses. Impressive considering they lost their star player a while back. Cal & USC are the 8-9 (winner playing us in the quarters - yuck).
If Colorado beats WSU today and Cal loses tomorrow, Cal takes the 7, Colorado the 8, and USC the 9.
We play winner of Colorado-USC.
Loser of WSU-CO and Utah are 10-11 and Arizona is 12.
Arizona did beat ASU last week at home. Neutral court is to ASU's advantage.
If Arizona beats USC: Cal and winner of WSU/CO are 7-8. WSU has the tiebreak against Cal, Cal over Colorado. So the 8 would be Cal or Colorado. Loser of WSU/CO, USC, Utah & Arizona tie for 9-12. (Mind goes numb)
UA >WSU,Utah; =USC; <CO
CO >USC,UA; =UT
UT >USC; =CO,WSU; <UA
WSU =UT, USC; <UA
USC =USC,UA; <CO,UT
CO 9, UA 10, UT 11, USC 12 with 8-9 game of Cal-Colorado and ASU-USC 5-12.
UA 9, UT 10, USC 11, WSU 12 I think would be the end result with 8-9 game being CO-UA, 5-12 ASU-WSU, and USC on the other side(Like!)
So to summarize:
WSU and USC win this weekend - Cal-USC 8-9
CO and USC win - CO-USC 8-9
CO and AZ win - CO-UA 8-9
WSU and AZ win - Cal-CO 8-9
No Utah or WSU. I think. So to answer the subject line question: I am rooting for CO and UA.
GO BEAVS - Take down the Bears.
You made my head hurt with that one, Brad. And it already hurts from the noise levels at Gill last night.......not that I am complaining though! 
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Post by halverbk on Feb 25, 2017 10:04:05 GMT -8
You're worried about the #8 seed in the Pac? Let's talk about what really matters! Here's the last Tourney "reveal". 1. UConn 2. Mississippi State 3. Baylor 4. Notre Dame 5. South Carolina 6. Texas 7. Maryland 8. Oregon State 9. Florida State Maryland lost to Ohio State and has no chance of a #2 seed. Texas just lost to Iowa State. MSU just lost to Kentucky. We're now at #5 in the RPI and if we beat Cal we're pretty close to a lock for a #2 seed. The question is - can we get to a #1? Notre Dame and Florida State end their regular season schedule against each other. Baylor is at Oklahoma (#16). MSU finishes at home vs Tennessee while South Carolina has Kentucky at home. So everyone but UConn has at least one more good test, and then they all have their conference tournaments. Obviously SC and MSU can't both win the SEC - if we win out we're passing one of those two. So there is your list . . . we want to win out and see any combination of these regular season upsets: Florida State over Notre Dame Kentucky over South Carolina Tennessee over Mississippi State Oklahoma over Baylor And in the conference tournaments . . . just root for chaos. I think we have no chance at a #1 seed unless we dominate Cal and in Seattle. Our non-conference schedule was too weak, and the USC loss was a big one to a team in the bottom half of the conference. We are winning, but not by much. That comes in handy when close games are on the line, but the final score does not look at impressive. Yes, we have a great conference which surely helps. I think the #1 seeds are locked unless they mess up. I don't mind chaos in the conference tournaments, but I am not as wild about it when my team is #1 seed. Now, can we have a #2 seed and play in the Stockton Regional instead of Bridgeport, Conn? UConn has the mojo, Baylor would be out for revenge, hmm. How about Notre Dame? We like playing them - just not at their place (MBB big dance in 1984). My projected #1 seeds: UConn, Baylor/Texas, MSU/SCar, ND/FSU. |
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Post by bennyskid on Feb 25, 2017 11:31:04 GMT -8
Actually, our SoS is #10 right now, way ahead of MSU (#31) and Baylor (#37). So that's not a problem. There is zero evidence that the committee cares about margin-of-victory - they have consistently hated on Maryland despite their ridiculous winning margins. If we win out there is zero chance that Texas (RPI #13) or FSU (RPI #10, SoS #18) passes us by. So we just need two of those four teams (ND, Baylor, SC, MSU) to stumble.
And we need to win out.
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