Post by socobeaver on Nov 12, 2016 22:09:17 GMT -8
I meant to post this before the season started, but hey, life. With Ken Pomeroy and Sports Illustrated putting out their preseason projections, I took a little closer look at our preseason schedule. First of all, both of these sites are modeling their rankings based on returning players stats from last year and new players based on some basic assumptions. For comparison, Kenpom ranks OSU 81, while SI has us at 69 to start out, and there are 351 total division I teams.
So not exactly a resume builder, but one that could let a team grow while providing some challenges. An NCAA tournament team shouldn't lose more than one or two of these, and woudl have a good shot at running the table, but not sure we are at that level (these rankings don't think so). Basically I see the games in three categories:
1) Home games against patsies - (5) PVAMU, UTSA, Lamar, and Savanah State are all in the bottom fifth of NCAA Division I teams, and SOU is not even an NCAA team. A loss to any of these would be embarrassing, although those are the kind of losses we unfortunately became accostomed to under our last few coaches.
2) Games we should win - (5) Fresno State, at Charlotte, Long Beach State, Portland, Kent State. These are all games we should win. Long Beach on a neutral court looks like the toughest, and I almost bumped it up a category, and any road game is tough, but Charlotte does not look good (they struggled to beat a Division II team picked 6th in its conference in their opener). Still, I would be somewhat surprised if we swept all of these. Four wins seams more realistic, but could be lower if we can't find some depth and we stay cold from 3-point range.
3) Winnable games where we are the underdog - (3) at Nevada, at Tulsa, at Mississippi State. None of these games is unwinnable, but the Beavers are likely at least a nominal underdog in all of these. Tulsa looks to be the weakest (they lost 9 seniors from the team we beat last year). MSU is probably the toughest, but they are projected as a middle of the road team in the SEC and are not a likely tournament team. Any of these would be a solid, but not spectacular win for the resume, should we be in a place where resumes are important at the end of the year. Realistically I think we get one of these, with two and zero both very possible.
All told, 9-10 wins woudl seem to be very doable. 11 or more and we start to look like at least an NIT team, though the Pac-12 is obviously where that will get determined.
| Opponent | KenPom Rank | SI Rank |
| Prairie View A&M | 317 | 336 |
| UTSA | 316 | 342 |
| Lamar | 318 | 289 |
| at Nevada | 114 | 82 |
| at Tulsa | 104 | 153 |
| Fresno State | 137 | 121 |
| Southern Oregon | NA | NA |
| at Mississippi State | 102 | 68 |
| at Charlotte | 194 | 167 |
| Savanah State | 341 | 310 |
| Long Beach State (n) | 118 | 92 |
| Portland (n) | 173 | 228 |
| Kent State | 210 | 159 |
So not exactly a resume builder, but one that could let a team grow while providing some challenges. An NCAA tournament team shouldn't lose more than one or two of these, and woudl have a good shot at running the table, but not sure we are at that level (these rankings don't think so). Basically I see the games in three categories:
1) Home games against patsies - (5) PVAMU, UTSA, Lamar, and Savanah State are all in the bottom fifth of NCAA Division I teams, and SOU is not even an NCAA team. A loss to any of these would be embarrassing, although those are the kind of losses we unfortunately became accostomed to under our last few coaches.
2) Games we should win - (5) Fresno State, at Charlotte, Long Beach State, Portland, Kent State. These are all games we should win. Long Beach on a neutral court looks like the toughest, and I almost bumped it up a category, and any road game is tough, but Charlotte does not look good (they struggled to beat a Division II team picked 6th in its conference in their opener). Still, I would be somewhat surprised if we swept all of these. Four wins seams more realistic, but could be lower if we can't find some depth and we stay cold from 3-point range.
3) Winnable games where we are the underdog - (3) at Nevada, at Tulsa, at Mississippi State. None of these games is unwinnable, but the Beavers are likely at least a nominal underdog in all of these. Tulsa looks to be the weakest (they lost 9 seniors from the team we beat last year). MSU is probably the toughest, but they are projected as a middle of the road team in the SEC and are not a likely tournament team. Any of these would be a solid, but not spectacular win for the resume, should we be in a place where resumes are important at the end of the year. Realistically I think we get one of these, with two and zero both very possible.
All told, 9-10 wins woudl seem to be very doable. 11 or more and we start to look like at least an NIT team, though the Pac-12 is obviously where that will get determined.
